HYPOTHESIS

PROF. R.K. SHARMADEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATIONUSOL, PANJAB UNIVERSITYCHANDIGARH

When a researcher observes known facts and takes up a problem for analysis he/she first has to start somewhere and this point of the start is the hypothesis. In the other words one has to proceed to formulate tentative solutions as soon as the problem to be tackled is finalized. These proposed solutions or explanations constitute the hypothesis which the researcher proceed to test on the basis of fact already known or that can be made known. Even, collection of facts merely for the sake of collecting them will yield no fruits; to be fruitful, facts need to be collected such that they are for or against some point of view or proposition. Such a point of view or proposition is the hypothesis. The tentative explanations or solutions are suggested to us by something in the subject-matter and by our previous experience.

INTRODUCTION

In the word of George A. Lundberg, "A hypothesis is a tentative generalization, the validity of which remains to be tested. In its most elementary stage the hypothesis may be every hunch, guess, imaginative data, which become the basis for action or investigation”.

Similarly, according to Webster, “A hypothesis is proposition, condition or principle which is assumed, perhaps without belief, in order to draw out its logical consequences and by its method to test its accord with facts which are known or may be determined”.

Rummel and Balline say, “A hypothesis is a statement capable of being tested and thereby verified or rejected”.

Definition of hypothesis

Providing examples of hypotheses may help to clarify the meaning of an hypothesis, and also help in learning how to write an hypothesis.  

      Below are two examples:1.   Imagine you were interested in investigating the influence of humor in ads on sales.  Your hypothesis could be the following:A funny ad will result in more sales than an ad that is not funny.

2.  Now imagine that you were interested in investigating whether the number of pages in a book influences book sales.  Your hypothesis could be the following:Books with more pages will sell more copies.

Hypothesis Examples

Hypotheses are not given to us readymade. This is so especially in social science where there has not yet evolved a highly developed theoretical system in many areas of its subject-matter, affording fruitful bases for hypothesis formulation. As a result in social sciences at least, a considerable portion of research endeavor is directed understandably towards making hypotheses rather than testing them. Hence, it is to be remembered that research can being with well formulated hypothesis (in the planning stage of the project) or it can come out with hypothesis as its end-product (at a later stage).

When to make a hypothesis?

The functions of hypothesis are three-fold. They are: To test theories: the function of hypothesis is to state a relationship

between phenomena in such a way that this relationship can be empirically demonstrated as either probable or not probable. The theories lend themselves for empirical test only if the facts, proposition and assumption implied in them are split up into specific hypotheses.

To suggest theories: another function of hypothesis is to suggest theories. According to Goods and Hatt, every worthwhile theory permits the formulation of additional hypotheses. These when tested are either proved or disproved and in turn constitute further test of the original theory.

To describe social phenomena: when hypotheses are tested, they explain the social phenomena associated with them. The phenomena may be totally new or partly known earlier or not known earlier.

Functions of hypothesis:

Hypothesis should be related to available techniques of research.

Hypothesis should be related to a body of theory.

Hypothesis should be clear and precise. Hypothesis should be capable of being

tested. In a swamp of untestable hypotheses, Hypothesis should be capable of being

tested. In a swamp of untestable hypotheses,

CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD HYPOTHESIS

Hypothesis should state relationship between variables, if it happens to be a relational hypothesis.

Hypothesis should be limited in scope and must be specific.

Hypothesis should be stated as far as possible in most simple terms so that the same is

easily understandable by all concerned

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Hypothesis should be consistent with most known facts i.e., it must be consistent with a substantial body of established facts.

Hypothesis should be amenable to testing within a reasonable time.

Hypothesis must explain the facts that gave rise to the need for explanation.

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Concepts, as abstract units of meaning, play a key role in the development and testing of hypotheses. Concepts are the basic components of hypotheses. Most formal hypotheses connect concepts by specifying the expected relationships between concepts. For example, a simple relational hypothesis such as "education increases income" specifies a positive relationship between the concepts "education" and "income."

HYPOTHESIS, CONCEPT, MEASURMENT

With the help of hypothesis, it becomes easy to decide as to what type of data is to be collected and what is to be ignored?

It suggests which form of research design is likely to be the most appropriate. Depending upon the type of hypothesis a decision is made about the relative appropriateness of different research designs for the study under consideration. The design could be a survey design, experimental design, content analysis, case study, participation observation study, and/or Focus Group Discussions.

Hypothesis makes it clear as to what is to be accepted, proved or disproved and that what is the main focus of study.

NEED AND IMPORTANCE

Hypothesis makes it clear as to what is to be accepted, proved or disproved and that what is the main focus of study.

It helps the investigator to knowing the direction in which he is to move. Without hypothesis it will be just jumping in the dark and not moving in the right direction.

A clear idea about hypothesis means saving of time, money and energy which otherwise will be wasted, thereby botheration of trial and error will be saved.

Properly formulate hypothesis is always essential for drawing proper and reasonable conclusions.

It helps in concerning only on relevant factors and dropping irrelevant ones.

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Researcher collects facts accepting hypothesis as final guide, this is against scientific nature.

In commencing stages researcher collects such facts which are quite useless and deleterious in the end.

Researcher forwards the facts after breaking and not changing the hypothesis on the basis of real facts which causes results neither correct nor trustful.

Researcher own view will favour his interest which will penetrate his studies so that neutrally and objectivity is not present.

LIMITATIONS

Descriptive Hypothesis Descriptive hypothesis contains only one variable

thereby it is also called as univariate hypothesis. Descriptive hypotheses typically state the existence,

size, form, or distribution of some variable. The first hypothesis contains only one variable. It only shows the distribution of the level of commitment among the officers of the organization which is higher than average. Such a hypothesis is an example of a Descriptive Hypothesis.

TYPE OF HYPOTHESIS

Relational Hypothesis These are the propositions that describe a relationship between

two variables. The relationship could be non-directional or directional, positive or negative, causal or simply correlational.

While stating the relationship between the two variables, if the terms of positive, negative, more than, or less than are used then such hypotheses are directional because the direction of the relationship between the variables (positive/negative) has been indicated (example 1.Level of job commitment of the officers is positively associated with their level of efficiency 2.The higher the level of job commitment of the officers the lower their level of absenteeism.). These hypotheses are relational as well as directional.

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Correlational Hypotheses State merely that the variables occur together in some

specified manner without implying that one causes the other. Such weak claims are often made when we believe that there are more basic causal forces that affect both variables.

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Explanatory (causal) Hypotheses Imply the existence of, or a change in, one variable

causes or leads to a change in the other variable. This brings in the notions of independent and the

dependent variables. Cause means to “help make happen.” So the independent variable may not be the sole reason for the existence of, or change in the dependent variable.

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Null Hypothesis It is used for testing the hypothesis formulated by the

researcher. Researchers treat evidence that supports a hypothesis differently from the evidence that opposes it. They give negative evidence more importance than to the positive one. It is because the negative evidence tarnishes the hypothesis. It shows that the predictions made by the hypothesis are wrong. The null hypothesis simply states that there is no relationship between the variables or the relationship between the variables is “zero.” That is how symbolically null hypothesis is denoted as “H0”.

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Alternative Hypothesis The alternative (to the null) hypothesis simply states

that there is a relationship between the variables under study. In our example it could be: there is a relationship between the level of job commitment and the level of efficiency. Not only there is an association between the two variables under study but also the relationship is perfect. Thereby the alternative hypothesis is symbolically denoted as “H1”.

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While a hypothesis is useful it is not always indispensable. In physical sciences the hypothesis is most often necessary but in social sciences useful facts may be discovered, organized and presented purposefully even without a hypothesis other than the one which might incidentally be suggested in the course of the investigation

NEED OF HYPOTHESIS

Hypotheses are guesses or tentative generalizations, but these guesses are not merely accidents. Collection of factual information alone does not lead to successful formulation of hypotheses. Hypotheses are the products of considerable speculation and imaginative guess work. They are based partly on known facts and explanations, and partly conceptual. There are no precise rules for formulating hypotheses and deducing consequences from them that can be empirically verified. However

FORMULATING THE HYPOTHESIS

1. Background Knowledge: The researcher must go through and collect all information related to his problem of research by consulting already established facts, theories and other forms of related literature. This kind of background knowledge helps the researcher in understanding the important aspects of the problem, as may have taken up by previous researchers with clues for solution.2. Experience: A researcher may get enough insight to the problem by his own experiences also. He may have a general understanding of an existing problem, its probable causes and also the solutions. Such experiences may help him to make a considerable review or analysis of the problem.

The Sources for hypotheses formulation

3. Analogies: The researcher may also analyze two similar situations or events or reasons for a particular problem. In this case a researcher himself makes an argument about the two situations and come to a decision.4. Scientific Theories: Various scientific theories developed in the field of psychology, sociology, education, or any other subject may also provide the researcher the clarification regarding the direction towards his research.

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Ignorance about systems and methods of hypothesis.: If the researcher is not conversant of systems and methods of formulating a hypothesis, then he will be facing difficulties in formulating the hypothesis.

Lack of Knowledge: The researcher must have the clear thorough knowledge of the hypothesis.

Lack of Responsibility: Lack of responsibility and scientific in the basis of hypothesis as the nature of research subject of social science have elasticity. The researcher must be aware of these facts.

Difficulties

Lack of Theoretical knowledge: Not using and having theoretical knowledge is another difficulty in formulating hypothesis.

Lack of logical background: Hypothesis not only lacks a definite and clear-cut background, but also lacks the logical use of the theatrical background. In other words, it means that there is no logical background

Complete and perfect knowledge of principles of sociology has to be acquired.

From the very beginning, the hypothesis should be brief and timely.

It should grow as the research proceeds further. In other words, it means that hypothesis should become elaborate as one proceeds in the field of research.

Step to remove difficulties with the formulation of hypothesis

Hypothesis testing is a four-step procedure: 1. Stating the hypothesis (Null or Alternative). 2. Setting the criteria for a decision. 3. Collecting data. 4. Evaluate the Null hypothesis.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Well suited for comparing a treatment with the control. 2. Relatively simple to calculate.

Advantages of Hypothesis Testing

1. Dependent on concentrations tested.2. Statistical power is influenced by variability.

3. Inability to calculate confidence intervals.4. Confounded by poorly behaved data.

5. Frequently need to use non-parametric statistical methods.

Disadvantages of Hypothesis Testing

“hypothesis is perhaps the most powerful tool, man has invented to achieve dependable knowledge” – Fred Kerlinger.

CONCLUSION

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