PROF. KEES STIGTER, PH.D.

AGROMET VISION

NETHERLANDS AND INDONESIA

ROVING SEMINAR VI, 2014

Agroforestry and (Micro)Climate Change

1

Lecture VI

More Recent Progress

and Additions in Agroforestry

2

INTERMEZZO FROM OUTSIDE THE AGROFORESTRY PAPER

PART II

3

HOW A CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM IS ENCOURAGING

ADOPTION OF RESEARCH FINDINGS

BY LYNNETTE WOOD

PRESIDENT OF BLUE MADRONA LLC., A SUBCONTRACTOR TO THE

ARCC PROGRAM

4

THE ASSESSMENT WAS DEVELOPED WITH THREE CHARACTERISTICS

WHICH CONTRIBUTED TOADOPTION OF ITS FINDINGS

AMONG PEOPLE AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE

AND AMONG INSTITUTIONS WITH THE MANDATE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT:

CREDIBILITY, SALIENCE,AND LEGITIMACY.

5

THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE DESCRIBED IN THE SCIENCE-POLICY LITERATURE

AS CRITICAL FOR TRANSLATING SCIENCE FINDINGS INTO POLICY AND PLANNING.

IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MALAWI ASSESSMENT, THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE DEFINED

AS FOLLOWS:

6

CREDIBILITY REFERS TO THE PERCEIVED QUALITY AND ADEQUACY

OF THE EVIDENCE AND FINDINGS PRESENTED IN THE ASSESSMENT.

TO BE FULLY CREDIBLE, THE EVIDENCE AND FINDINGS MUST ALSO BE AUTHORITATIVE, BELIEVABLE, AND TRUSTED.

7

THE MALAWI ASSESSMENT ESTABLISHED CREDIBILITY

BY COMPILING AN EVIDENCE BASE FOR DECISION MAKING, USING

THE BEST AVAILABLE DATA AND INFORMATION, BY APPLYING

RECOGNIZED ANALYSIS PROCEDURES, AND BY CLEARLY COMMUNICATING THE LIMITATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS.

8

A RECOGNIZED CLIMATE RESEARCH ORGANIZATION

[THE CLIMATE SYSTEM ANALYSIS GROUP OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN]

CONDUCTED THE CLIMATE PORTION OF THE ANALYSIS,

WHICH LENT AUTHORITY TO THE RESULTS,

FURTHER INCREASING THEIR CREDIBILITY.

9

SALIENCE IS DEFINED AS THE PERCEIVED RELEVANCE AND TIMELINESS

OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED AND INTEGRATION OF

CONTEXTUAL FACTORS.

THE ARCC PROGRAM ACHIEVED SALIENCE BY FULLY EMBEDDING

THE ASSESSMENT RESULTS IN THE LOCAL CONTEXT.

10

DURING THE COURSE OF THE ASSESSMENT, THE TEAM CARRIED OUT

IN-DEPTH, PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISALS IN NINE REPRESENTATIVE VILLAGES

IN EIGHT DISTRICTS.

THESE WERE SUPPLEMENTED BY APPROXIMATELY 50

KEY INFORMANT INTERVIEWS.

11

THESE INTERACTIONS GREATLY ENHANCED THE TEAM'S UNDERSTANDING

OF THE LOCAL CONTEXT, ALLOWING A WIDER AUDIENCE

TO ACCEPT THE ASSESSMENT RESULTSBEYOND JUST USAID.

ONCE THE ASSESSMENT WAS COMPLETED, THE TEAM STRUCTURED ITS FINDINGS IN A WAY THAT DIRECTLY ADDRESSED

THE MOST CRITICAL NEEDS

AND RELEASED THE RESULTS IN A TIMELY MANNER ALIGNED WITH INVESTMENT CYCLES. 12

LEGITIMACY IS THE VALUE WHEREBY ASSESSMENT RESULTS

ARE RECOGNIZED AND ACCEPTEDAS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF REALITY.

BUT "REALITY" IS COLORED BY INDIVIDUAL OR GROUP VALUES,

BELIEFS, AND PERSPECTIVES; THEY MAY ALSO BE COLORED

BY THE PERCEPTION OF THE TRANSPARENCY OF THE ASSESSMENT PROCESS.

13

TO ESTABLISH LEGITIMACY, THE TEAM ENGAGED STAKEHOLDERS

AT CRITICAL POINTS THROUGHOUT THE ASSESSMENT

-- DURING ITS DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION, AND WHEN THE TEAM BEGAN ASSESSING

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADAPTATION OPTIONS.

THE PROCESS WAS INCLUSIVE-- IT PROVIDED A VOICE TO MANY ACTORS --

AND IT WAS TRANSPARENT. 14

THE TEAMALSO SHARED THE FINDINGS

WITH FARMERS AND FARMER ASSOCIATIONS,

WHO VALIDATED THE HISTORICAL CLIMATE TREND ANALYSES

WITH THEIR OWN REAL-WORLD EXPERIENCES OF ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

THAT WERE ALREADY OCCURRING.

15

THE RESULTS OF THE ASSESSMENT INFORMED

A PARTICIPATORY OPTIONS ANALYSIS THAT ENGAGED DECISION MAKERS

AND ENCOURAGED THEM TO EXPLORE APPROACHES

TO STRENGTHEN ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAND COPE WITH RISK

ACROSS COMMUNITIES AND INSTITUTIONS.

16

WHILE MANY PROGRAMS ARE INVOLVED WITH CONDUCTING RESEARCH

AND GENERATING NEW KNOWLEDGE, TRANSLATING THE RESULTS

OF THEIR EFFORTS SO THAT THEY ARE USED

BY DECISION-MAKERS IS OFTEN OVERLOOKED.

17

IN THE CASE OF ARCC'S PROGRAM, GENERATING AND PRESENTING

ASSESSMENT RESULTS DEEMED TO BE CREDIBLE, SALIENT, AND LEGITIMATE

BY DECISION MAKERS WAS ESSENTIAL FOR IMPROVING

THEIR UNDERSTANDING OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS

OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENABLING THEM TO ACT EFFECTIVELY

TO ADDRESS THEM.18

MAKING THE ENTIRE PROCESS INCLUSIVE, AND KEEPING LINES OF COMMUNICATION OPEN,

INCREASES THE CHANCES THAT STAKEHOLDERS AND BENEFICIARIES

WILL EMBRACE CHANGE.

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END OFINTERMEZZO FROM OUTSIDE THE AGROFORESTRY PAPER

PART II

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C. Coping with increasing climatic variability

using agroforestry

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Subchapter 5.2 (Coping with Climate Variability and Climate Change)

 Sections

- Improving the issuing, absorption and use of

climate forecast information in agroforestry

- Sustainable development and use of ecosystems with non-forest trees22

In Subchapter 2 of Chapter III.5 (Coping with Climate Variability and Climate

Change, Intermezzo 6), it would now be argued

that increasing climatic variability is part of climate change,

so a more appropriate heading would be

“Coping with increasing climatic variability”.

23

However, it is wise to follow the literature on such matters closely

as the statistics are highly debated

and there is often doubt regarding statements about

increasing climatic variability.

Nevertheless, the best proof is provided by tree ring studies.24

Various techniques have been described to calibrate

variation in ring-width with variations in climate

and reconstruct past variations in climate.

The simplest calibrations usually involve few statistics

and rely upon biological insight for recognition and documentation

of some type of relationship.25

Climate data are converted to growth estimates and compared to the

actual growth measurements.

Variation in ring-width is then used to infer

past variation in climate. 26

For Iberian pine forests, the greater occurrence

of extreme years and increased sensitivity

in the second half of the 20th century were in agreement with an increment

in the variability of precipitation during the growing period.

27

Variability in tree growth was positively correlated

with variability in precipitation,

with which radial trunk growth was negatively correlated.

28

Thus, a change in tree-growth pattern and the climatic response of the forests

examined since the mid-20th century were detected

and linked to an increase in water stress.

These temporal trends were consistent with

the observed warming of the climate and the increased variability

in precipitation. 29

More recent work than covered in the second Sub-chapter

of Chapter III. 5 (Intermezzo 6) shows that increasing variability

in rainfall is associated with lower tree cover

in moist tropical forests in all continents.

However, in the dry tropics, the effects of greater

year-to-year variability in rainfall depend on the continent involved. 30

Higher overall inter-annual variation in rainfall has

positive (South America), negative (Australia) or neutral (Africa) effects

on tree cover in drylands.

The effects of climatic variability in tropical drylands

appear to depend on the balance between extreme wet and dry events,

as well as the opportunities trees have to grow during rainy periods. 31

This conclusion affects agropastoralists

whose livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture

and is highly vulnerable to ecological disturbance

caused by increasing climatic variability.

32

Although agropastoralists cannot adequately feed their animals

in times of extreme weather, such as floods and droughts,

disrupting their major source of livelihood,

most do not practice pasture management

and fodder conservation.33

Of the 21 tree browse species identified by agropastoralists, 18 were found to be important

during droughts and eight during floods.

Most agropastoralists neither knew

how to plant browse species nor how to manage them

for better and sustainable use in feeding their animals.34

Given the above conclusions regarding the essential opportunities

to grow during the rains, extension should assist pastoralists

to cope with these conditions by domesticating such tree species.

Both people and trees can adapt to change

on various time scales (Intermezzo 8).35

INTERMEZZO 8

How Trees and People Can Co-adapt To Climate Change

(Van Noordwijk et al., 2011)

36

Climate change, especially increased variability,

affects landscapes, human livelihoods and trees in many ways.

Both people and trees can adapt to change

at various time scales, but the current rate of change implies

that advance planning is needed as part of

integrated rural development. 37

Lessons learnt from “best practices” of rural development

and natural resource management in the tropics

suggest that developments that can be shared

more widely in the field and relevant research

to support their refinement are required.

38

The voluntary, conditional and pro-poor aspects

of financial rewards will help to bring

the voice of grassroots stakeholders into the international and national

decision-making processes of how to deal with climate change

to ensure realism and efficiency in climate change adaptation.

39

This is yet another strand to be integrated

in rural development programmes.

The argument for such an approach is built on the underlying concepts of climate change, rural livelihoods

and multi-functionality of landscapes.

40

The argument for such an approach is also built on the specific roles

of trees and farmers as providers of

environmental and climate services in agricultural landscapes.

However, trees themselves are vulnerable to climate change

and co-adaptation is needed, and possible.

41

END OF INTERMEZZO 8

42

Common land provides smallholder farmers in Africa

with firewood, timber and feed for livestock,

and is used to complement human diets

through collection of edible non-timber forest products

(NTFPs). 43

Farmers were willing to cultivate trees and

organise communal conservation of indigenous fruit trees, leading to prioritization

of pressing land use problems and identification

of the support needed.

44

This support needed included fast-growing trees for firewood,

inputs for crop production, knowledge on the cultivation

of indigenous fruit trees and clear regulations

and compliance with rules for extraction of NTFPs.

45

Well-managed communal resources can provide a strong tool to maintain and increase

the ability of rural communities to cope with

an increasingly variable climate.

46

Nevertheless, although less is known

about inter-annual variability than mean yields,

in addition to decreasing cereal yields

everywhere during the current century, the available data indicate

that variability in yield is likely to increase. 47

It is good to remember herethat we are dealing with

Recent Progress and Additions in Agroforestry,

on which we started in Lecture V.

So far we have handled (see also Intermezzo 6 in Lecture V)

A. Foundations to build on (Lecture V);

B. Strategic use of climate services for agroforestry (Lecture V);48

C. Coping with increasing climatic variability using agroforestry

(this Lecture VI)

In Lecture VII we will deal with (be aware of changed titles, in comparison with Intermezzo 6, that I explained or will explain):

D. Coping with extreme weather and climate events using agroforestry

49

In Lecture VIII we will start with:

E. Meteorological advisories/services of weather forecasting in agroforestry

In Lecture VIII we will also handle:

F. Developing strategies to cope with risks in and with agroforestry

Again note the adaptations made to these headings compared

with Intermezzo 6. I will explain. 50

Conclusions

- Increasing variability in rainfall is associated with lower tree cover in moist tropical forests.

Effects of climatic variability in tropical drylands appear to depend on the balance

between extreme wet and dry events, and the opportunities for trees to grow during rainy

periods. 

- Communal resources can provide a strong tool to maintain and increase the ability of communities to cope with an increasingly

variable climate. Less is known about inter-annual variability than mean yields, with

decreasing cereal yields everywhere during the current century, the available data

indicate that variability in yield is likely to increase.

51

Recommendations

- Generating and presenting assessment results deemed to be credible, salient, and

legitimate by decision makers was essential for improving their

understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and enabling them to act

effectively to address them.

- Making the entire process inclusive, and keeping lines of communication open,

increases the chances that stakeholders and beneficiaries

will embrace change. 

52

- Lessons learnt from “best practices” of rural development and natural resource

management in the tropics suggest that developments that can be shared

more widely in the field and relevant research to support their

refinement are required.

- This is another strand to be integrated in rural development programmes.

The argument for this approach is built on the underlying concepts of climate

change, rural livelihoods and multi-functionality of landscapes.

53