Prof. karl's assignment

Vietnamese German University

Master course of Urban Development and Planning

REAL ESTATE PROJECT EVALUATION

Benthanh twin towers

Technical and Economic feasibility

Advisor: Prof. Karl Kluegel

Student: Nguyen Dinh Khoa

HCM - 9/9/2011


Benthanh Twin Towers – Real Estate Project evaluation

OUTLINE

I. Introduction

II. Building Overviews

III. Methodology of evaluation

a. Methodology

b. Criteria

IV. Evaluation

a. Location

b. Transport Analysis

c. Design and Image

d. Technical Analysis

e. Economic & Market Analysis

f. Financial Analysis

g. Social Analysis

h. Environmental Analysis

V. Conclusion

VI. References



I. Introduction

The twin processes of urban planning and urban development are inextricably linked – it’s not

possible to carry out a development strategy without an understanding of the planning process, and

equally planners need to know structure of real estate market with its essences. This assignment for

helping students understanding about the procedural and practical aspects of developing land from

the point of view of both planner and developer.

One real estate project is chosen in the category of 32 key projects in development of HCM

city. The student analyzes the entire project in many aspects such as technical, economic, social,

environmental, etc. Results of the analysis will show the feasibility and economic of projects.

In this paper, BTT was selected with its set-off essences.

II. Methodology of evaluation

This assignment includes two sections: class section and individual section. In the individual

section, each person will give out their evaluations, analysis and sentiments about their selected

project.

In the group section, a group of criteria were selected carefully, reasonably by all class

members. The projects will be justified based on a comprehensive review of these criteria and every

criterion will be ranked from good to bad correlatively 1 to 5. Fifteen projects will be compared

together based on these figures of projects. The project is justified based on a comprehensive

review of the following criteria:

Criteria Note Rating (good – bad)

1 2 3 4 5

Location Advantages and disadvantages of its location.

Transport Traffic, mobility and accessibility 1

Design & image The appearance of the building and its architecture 1

Technical the technical solutions, new technology applied 2

Economic Real estate market and its influence 2

Finance Finance & feasibility of economic based on the real

estate market report of CBRE

1

Social social issues which have a connection with the project 3

Environmental Energy and Environmental issues 2

Figure 1: List of criteria

http://www.google.com.vn/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCcQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.housingpredictor.com%2F&rct=j&q=market%20real%20estate&ei=72NqTqGIA82XiQfEnf3CBA&usg=AFQjCNFczFbgt8WvhMXcn7dCrNRljo4tdg&sig2=NSAkN64RC4UAQe-WQ8zVTQ&cad=rja





For accurately evaluation every criteria of the project, many variety methodologies are used.

Each criterion is suitable with one or more methodology. For example, Visiting site and observation is

used for analysis location, transport. Calculation and analysis data is used in Market Analysis and

Financial Analysis.

III. Building overviews

Location: this BTT is located at the historical Ben Thanh Market plaza, where four streets meet,

namely Le Thi Hong Gam, Calmette, Pham Ngu Lao, and Pho Duc Chinh. BTT is also sit on top of

future city Metro Center.

Investors: Bitexco group

Bitexco is one of Top Corporation in Vietnam, an internationally enterprise. Bitexco has invested in

many sectors such as Mining, hydropower, real estate, ect.

Functions: serviced apartment, office, commercial centre.

Investment: 300 billion US dollar.

Land area: +/- 8,600 square meters

Height: 240 meters

Gross construction area: +/- 180,000 square meters

Scheduled construction period: 2011 – 2015

IV. Evaluation

a. Location

In a real estate project, the attribute of location always plays an important role. The location

effects to the business effectiveness and the convenience of the building in the future. Located in the

central business district of one of the world’s fastest growing economies, BTT stands at the heart of

HCM’s financial centre. Situated at front of Quachthitrang square, it is strategically positioned to

attract leading financial, banking, insurance and legal companies, both local and global.

This area is also considered as the historical and culture area of HCMC. Within five minutes of

walking, you can reach many key location of HCMC such as Benthanh market, 23.9 parks, Hochiminh

museum, the building of Hochiminh committee, etc. Therefore, this area is the most attractive place for



tourists particularly foreigners. There are more than 4 million visitors come to this area every year for

visiting and making stay. It is expected to bring a lot of income from rental and retail.

BTT is considered to be at the center of district 1 specifically and HCMC generally. With

regard to the “location, location, location” rule in real estate. BTT’s location seems second to none.

Grade: 1

b. Transport

BTT is also located in the best location in terms of transport. Three sides of BTT are

surrounded by four streets namely Lethihonggam, Phamngulao, Phoducchinh, calmette and the main

side faces to Quachthitrang square. In the future, congestion in rush hours could be not occurred

because vehicles could access to the building from all four sides.

With its central location and accessibility from the rest of the city, it is well connected to the

Saigon Bridge, thuthiem tunnel, tanthuan bridge, and it close proximity to the tansonnhat international

airport.

Apart from being a major hub for the network of city buses serving Ho Chi Minh City,

Quachthitrang square (Ben Thanh market) is planned to be a hub for several lines of the planned Ho

Chi Minh City Metro; Line 1, already under construction, would connect Ben Thanh with Suoi Tien

Park and Long Binh in District 91. Other lines would connect Ben Thanh with Tham Luong in District

122, and with Cholon and Binh Tan District.

Grade: 1

c. Design and Image

1 "Ho Chi Minh City breaks ground". Railway Gazette International. February 28, 2008.

2 "Plans for HCMC's second metro route submitted". Thanh Nien.newspaper. May 14, 2010.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh_City_Metro



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suoi_Tien_Amusement_Park



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Binh

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholon

http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/single-view/view/ho-chi-minh-city-breaks-ground-1.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Gazette_International

http://www.thanhniennews.com/2008/Pages/20081130163344044175.aspx



In the viewpoint of an architect, I would like to particularly analysis the architectural aspect.

There are many proposal of BTT were submitted, the most romantic idea was chosen which belong to

Arep Architectural consultancy company.

The project includes two towers which are connected by a podium. The 55-storey West Tower

contains office floors in the lower half and a hotel in the upper half. The 48-storey East Tower contains

the residential apartments, serviced by the hotel through the podium and basement. The architectural

design has a cultural context as it refers to the Vietnamese myth of the Two Dragons. The podium

represents the coiled tails, while the two dragons rise from the land. The cantilevered tops represent

the dragon's heads. The glass cubes are figurative depictions of Vietnamese pearls in the mouths of the

dragons.

Figure 2: Perspective images

The image will provide a powerful reminder to current and future generations of both the

Vietnamese myth and the symbolic representation of the city's fame as the 'Pearl of the Orient'.

Although, the rectangular shape of the building is quite harmonious with the surrounding

architecture. But it looks very tangled with two small blocks and the extension (set-off) part on the top.

The podium is positioned very near street with small set back space. Its huge figure really

overwhelmed any crossing passengers. Even though, the architecture designed the podium with the



image of a dragon’s tail, but its shape is not lissome at all. Its appearance with glaze vertical façade is

indeed tedious.

Grade: 3

d. Technical Analysis

Because of this building has not been built. Therefore, all the evaluations, analyses base only on

the project’s proposal and its perspective images. Specifically, Some sub-criteria which are analyzed:

Parking capacity, ventilation and lighting, structure solution and earth quake prevention.

Parking capacity

Having a very large basement with 24.000 m2 gross area, it could provide 933 car parks and

1.867 motorbike parks and a noticeable parking area on the ground. But its capacity nearly satisfies

the TCVN standard about parking. However, the calculation below bases on the condition of fully

occupied. In reality, the building is not often being in the state of fully occupied.

Apartment Office Commercial Total

Capacity

TCVN 3 1.5parking/apartment

500 apartments

1parking/ 100m2

45.200 m2

1parking/ 100 m2

28.000 m2

Car parking 334 452 280 1066 933

Motorbike

parking

225 1642 1867 1867

Figure 3: Parking calculation

3 National technical regulation of construction 04/2008/QĐ-BXD. April 03, 2008.



Ventilation and lighting

The data about ventilation and lighting are not available in the project proposals. But the

perspective images clearly show the glaze cover of the building. It gives tenants a modern office

environment which not only allows for stunning views of Ho Chi Minh City but also enables natural

sunlight to reach all the floors. However, glazing all the building will restrict natural ventilation.

Alternative Costly solution is using air conditioner system.

Structure solution

After Finance tower, BTT is the second building of HCMC which applies the new structure

solution – Steel outrigger and belt truss4( Figure 4). This structure has many advantages to effectively

control the excessive drift due to either wind or earthquake load. Moreover, it could make large

interior spaces with long- span beams. In this instance, the choice of steel resulted in a lighter structure

and speedier construction.

Figure 5: Illustration of the Structure

4 “The outrigger and belt truss system is one of the lateral load resisting system in which the external

columns are tied to the central core wall with very stiff outriggers and belt truss at one or more levels”



Earth quake prevention

Fortunately, Vietnam is not in the pacific ring of fire – area often occur earth quakes. But the

earth quake prevention need to be considered in every building, especially in high rise buildings such

as BTT. Because of applying new structure solution - outrigger and belt truss, BTT could subject to the

earthquake load, about 18 % reduction in maximum displacement can be achieved with optimum

location of the outrigger truss placed at the top and the 33rd level5.

Grade: 2

e. Economic & Market Analysis

In this criterion, the factors economy generally, market specifically are analyzed to indicate

their effects to the feasibility of the project. It includes both negative effects and positive effects.

In the two first quarters of this year, HCMC’ real estate market was quite gloomy, because of

many reasons such as economic crisis, inflation, state policies. Not only HCMC’ market but also

Vietnam’s market is effected by policies of the government. The investment from national budget has

reduced significant because of the monetary tightening policy. High interest rate and high inflation are

the key issues of the economy. The inflation stood at 12.8% in the end of March and rising sharply to

hit the peak at 20.82% in June. Meanwhile, the high interest rate is always above 21%.

In March 01, 2011, the state bank promulgated a directive about the lending limitations

particularly in the real estate sector6. This directive has largely impact in both individual investors and

big enterprises. They are more caution in investment especially speculators who are most affected by

this directive. Transactions are less than before. Consequently, prices dropped slightly but still haven’t

returned to the true and reasonable value as recognized by quantitative factors.

Moreover, the real estate enterprises have faced with the increase of constructional material.

Constructional material price has increased 15% - 30% since early this year because of increase the

current exchange USD/VND. The investors now must to pay more for imported material. It means they

5 Dimensi Teknik Sipil, Vol. 3, No. 1, Maret 2001, 36-41 ISSN 1410-9530

6 Directive 01/CT-NHNN. March 01, 2011.



have less profit than before. In this situation, the investors must to delay their projects to waiting for

the decline of price of construction material. Some projects have been behind the schedule.

But due to the rapid two-digit growth of Ho Chi Minh City in particular and dynamic economic

development of Vietnam in general, the construction of office buildings in Ho Chi Minh City has been

rapid. BTT will help to ease the demand for office space in this city, especially in prime grade offices.

Figure 6: office market analysis7

The next two quarters of 2011 are expected to see absorption levels remain stable. While Grade

a vacancy is expected to drop which are typically at least 95% occupied, the scarcity of supply in this

prime grade offices is a good sign for the development of BTT in the future.

The rents fall in all grades, average Grade A asking rents declined 1.9%, to US$34.21 psm per

month. This is the seventh straight quarter of Grade A rental declines. But the decline is gradual and

slow. Most of real estate experts judge that the rents will increase next year, particularly in Grade A.

7 CBRE research and consultancy, Hochiminh city market report. Q2, 2011.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh_City

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh_City



Retail market

Serviced apartment market

Figure 7: Retail market and Serviced apartment market.

Grade: 3

f. Financial Analysis

The project’s investment capital is about 300 million dollar in which is from two main sources

Legal capital and Loan capital with the ratio 7:3. The interest rate is very attractive at 16%/year by a

foreign bank. (Figure 8)

SOURCE OF CAPITAL

TOTAL INVESTED CAPITAL 299,850,130

1 Legal capital 89,955,039

Percentage in total invested capital 30%

2 Loan capital 209,895,091

Percentage in total invested capital 70%

Interest rate 16%

(Borrowing in foreign currency from foreign bank)

Figure 8: Sources of capital



In the construction section, the building is divided into three part Basement, Commercial floors

(podium) and the above floors. The cost of construction (USD/m2) is referenced from buildings which have

same scale. (Figure 9)

INVESTED CAPITAL

TOTAL INVESTED CAPITAL 299,850,130

Including:

1 Construction cost 132,689,600

a Basement 24,840,000

no 4

Conruction area 6,900

Construction cost (USD/m2) 900

b Comercial floor 21,000,000

no 5 Comercial storeys 5



c Above floor 86,849,600

no 55 storeys (resident) + 48 storeys

(office)

103



2 Compensate & clearance 94,000,000

3 Consultancy service fee 6,634,480 equivalent to 5% of Construction cost

4 Designing & managing cost 6,634,480 equivalent to 5% of Construction cost

5 Equipment 19,903,440 equivalent to 15% of Construction cost

6 Construction cost of internal road,

Landscape

181,250

7 Contingencies 39,806,880 equivalent to 30 % of Construction cost

Figure 9: Invested capital



According to CBRE, the data about rate of occupancy, monthly rental cost are calculated

basing on the last report of CBRE (Q2). The annual income and annual expenditure are also

calculated. (Figure 10)

REVENUE

1 Office leasing

GFA for office 58,000

Leaseable area 45,240

Leasing ratio 63.80%

Rental (USD/m2/month) 34.20

2 Comercial leasing

GFA for office 35,000


Leasing ratio 93%


2 Residental Leasing

GFA for Resident 58,000


Leasing ratio 91.70%


Figure 10: Revenue

The project’s NPV is about 153,358,430 meanwhile IRR is 16.6%. This project is valuable.

TOTAL CASHFLOW (35,982,016)

Discount rate 1

Present value of cash flow (35,982,016)

Net Present Value (NPV) 153,358,430

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 16.6%

Discounted Payback Period (years) 12.0

Discounted rate 8%

Simple Return of investment ROI (after 50 years) 101

Figure 11: Cash flow

Grade: 2



g. Social Analysis

BTT will be built on the historical are of HCMC where contain many evidences of Saigon in the

past. The city is partly losing its particular values such as architecture, culture. It is a pity especially

with elders and Saigon beloved.

The result of my interviews with several tourists shows that BTT with it strategic and sensitive

location will badly effect to Hochiminh tourism. Most of my interviewees are disappointed with the

appearance of BTT. They said that this location and surrounding are needed to persevere to keep its

historical image.

The clearance of 8.600m2 will effects to 124 households. There are just 34 households which

accept with the compensation of the investor. The others will not accept till the investor could satisfy

their demands. At this time, this is the most complicated problems of the Project.

Grade: 2

h. Environmental Analysis

Nowadays, a growing tendency of Investments is to build green buildings or environmental

friendly buildings instead of usual buildings. Although, the establishment cost of such the green

buildings are higher than usual but with its considerable advantages, green buildings are been being

built widely. BTT is not the exception. In the first stage of planning and design, BTT’s investor had

asked to build a “green building” in the future. Some solutions are considered for instant double

glazing, LED lighting, using unburned construction materials, etc.

Windows and other glazed external surfaces have a significant impact on the energy efficiency

of a building especially with high rise building. BTT is covered all four sides by glazing. If it is

glazed by double glazing, BTT could save a large amount of electricity for air conditioners.

Lighting is one of the major energy consumption. The selection of LED lights instead of the

classical types will saves up to 85% on the investor’s energy-bill. Not only saving energy but also

LED lights have many advantages such as: Long timelife Average 20 years, no mecury, no UV-

radiation, no warm up, direct 100% light output, Safe to touch, etc.

For being a green building or environmental friendly building, besides these above solutions, the

building must to deal with many others requirements which are maintenance of landscape, energy



efficiency, environment protection, quality of the environment, protection of water resource and design.

But he relevant data is inadequate thus the assessment the building at this time is less correct.

Grade: 3

V. Conclusion

Beautiful designed and very convenient in trasportation are the wonderful advantages of BTT.

It's not only a place for living but also a good place for business that can respond to any requests of

customers and visitors. When completed, BTT, with its iconic design and strategic location, is expected

to represent the new and dynamic Vietnam and will be a new city landmark in the future.



VI. References

1. "Ho Chi Minh City breaks ground". Railway Gazette International. February 28, 2008.

2. "Plans for HCMC's second metro route submitted". Thanh Nien.newspaper. May 14, 2010

3. National technical regulation of construction 04/2008/QĐ-BXD. April 03, 2008.

4. CBRE research and consulting, Market reviews of Q1, Q2 2011.

5. Http:// Skyscrapers.com

6. Http://www.giaiphapexcel.com/forum/showthread.php?8426-Excel-s-Financial-Function-

C%C3%A1c-H%C3%A0m-T%C3%A0i-Ch%C3%ADnh&p=58306#post58306

http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/single-view/view/ho-chi-minh-city-breaks-ground-1.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Gazette_International

http://www.thanhniennews.com/2008/Pages/20081130163344044175.aspx

http://www.giaiphapexcel.com/forum/showthread.php?8426-Excel-s-Financial-Function-C%C3%A1c-H%C3%A0m-T%C3%A0i-Ch%C3%ADnh&p=58306#post58306

http://www.giaiphapexcel.com/forum/showthread.php?8426-Excel-s-Financial-Function-C%C3%A1c-H%C3%A0m-T%C3%A0i-Ch%C3%ADnh&p=58306#post58306

Prof. karl's assignment

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