PROCESS

• Receive data from Institutes• Load data in Fame database• Seasonally adjust the data• Calculate Composite indicators• Calculate Aggregates (EU/euro area)• Present results in press release• Make data available on the internet

Seasonal Adjustment

Used method: Dainties

Advantage: No recalculations when new data arrives

Disadvantage: Not commonly used by other institutions.

COMPOSITE INDICATORS

• Confidence Indicator for each sectorAverage of balance of selected questions

• Economic Sentiment Indicator:• Industry Confidence Indicator (40%)• Consumer Confidence Indicator (20%)• Retail Confidence Indicator (20%)• Construction Confidence Indicator (20%)• Service sector is NOT included in ESI

• Business Climate Indicator

Aggregates

• EU• Eurozone• Future Member States

Press Release• Last working day of the month at 12.00h• All Member States + Agregates• All Sectors + Confidence Indicators• All Questions (Balances) (not for FMS)• Last 12 months• Monthly special topics

– Quarterly survey– World Economic Survey– FMS components– Investment plans– Export Volume– Capacity Utilisation

Data on Internet

• Press releases• Historical data (back to 1985) in EXCEL• User Guide• http://europa.eu.int/comm/

economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm

Comparison with National data

• Not only aggregates, also countries• National Institutes often earlier• Collection is harmonised (questionnaire)• Presentation of Data is not• Outcomes may differ

Graph Table Graph Table Graph Table Graph Table Graph Table Graph Table

BE janv-93 m-9 janv-98 m-9 janv-98 m-12 janv-98 m-9 janv-98 m-9 janv-98 m-1

DK

DE janv-92 m -12 janv-02 janv-02 janv-02 janv-02

EL ECFIN ECFIN ECFIN ECFIN ECFIN ECFIN ECFIN ECFIN ECFIN ECFIN ECFIN ECFIN

ES janv-89 janv-91 m-12 m-12 janv-89 janv-91 m-12 m-12

FR m-6 m-12 m-6

IE févr-96 févr-96

IT janv-96 m-3 janv-96 m-2 janv-98 m-2 janv-03 m-2

LU janv-02

NL janv-85 janv-00 janv-98 m-6

AT

PT janv-95 juin-94 janv-90 juil-86 janv-97 janv-95 juin-94

FI janv-96 oct-95 m-1 janv-96

SE janv-96 m-3 janv-93 janv-96 m-3 janv-96

UK

Notes:

Cells shaded in grey: data publicly available on the Internetmonth-year: start date of data shown m-number: number of months shown N.A. not available ECFIN: Indicator identical to Commission indicatorTEXT Numeric value given in a press release (no tables or graphs)no numeric value No numeric value given in press releaseQuart: Only quarterly publication

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

no numeric value

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

janv-96 janv-96janv-80

N.A.

N.A.

Quart

N.A.

N.A. N.A. N.A.

no numeric value TEXT N.A. no numeric value no numeric value

ServicesRetail Trade

no numeric value

N.A. N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

no numeric value

no numeric value

Publication of National Indicators

N.A.

??? N.A.N.A.N.A.

N.A. N.A. N.A.

N.A.

Composite National Industry Consumers Construction

TEXT

N.A.

Indicator

ECFIN ECFIN

INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

COUNTRY Differencesept-03 oct-03 Change sept-03 oct-03 Change !!!!

BE -14,5 -10,6 3,9 -14 -12 2 DK -9 -5 4 -9 -5 4 DE 1) -6,2 -5,8 0,4 -17 -14 3 EL -1 2 3 -1 2 3 ES 1) -2,6 -3,1 -0,5 -1 -2 -1 FR 93 95 2 -10 -9 1 IE -- -9 2 11 IT 94,6 94,3 -0,3 -1 -2 -1 LU -- -9 -22 -13 NL -5 -3 2 -8 -7 1 AT -- -9 -7 2 PT 1) -15 -13 2 -17 -14 3 FI -1 -5 -4 0 -3 -3 SE 1) -16 -9 7 -11 -14 -3 !!!!UK -- -21 -21 0

1) Data for August and September

HARMONISED INDICATOR

N.A.

N.A.

NATIONAL INDICATOR

N.A.

N.A.

RETAIL CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

COUNTRY Differencesept-03 oct-03 Change sept-03 oct-03 Change !!!!

BE -13,5 -11,7 1,8 -12 -14 -2 !!!!DK -- 13 16 3 DE 1) -25 -19,1 5,9 -29 -22 7 EL 19 21 2 19 21 2 ES 1) 0 10 10 -3 -1 2 FR -38 -36 2 -28 -21 7 IE -- -12 -9 3 IT 98,2 98,8 0,6 17 13 -4 !!!!LU -- 0 NL -12 -11 1 -12 -11 1 AT -- -16 -10 6 PT 1) -20 -20 0 -20 -21 -1 FI -- -8 -7 1 SE 1) 5 7 2 4 9 5 UK -- 0 16 16

1) Data for August and September

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

HARMONISED INDICATORNATIONAL INDICATOR

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

CONSTRUCTION CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

COUNTRY Differencesept-03 oct-03 Change sept-03 oct-03 Change !!!!

BE -0,7 -1,3 -0,6 -12 -13 -1 DK -17 -17 0 -18 -17 1 DE 1) -45,6 -48 -2,4 -54 -57 -3 EL 14 20 6 14 20 6 ES 1) -1 -0,5 0,5 4 8 4 FR -- -10 -7 3 IE -- 23 27 4 IT -- -7 -2 5 LU -- -34 -30 4 NL -- -20 -23 -3 AT -- -24 -25 -1 PT 1) -54 -57 -3 -42 -47 -5 FI 2 3 1 1 6 5 SE 1) -57 -60 -3 -64 -57 7 !!!!UK -- -4 -3 1

1) Data for August and September2) Indicator is produced, but is not publicly available

HARMONISED INDICATORNATIONAL INDICATOR

2)

N.A.

N.A.N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

SERVICES CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

COUNTRY Differencesept-03 oct-03 Change sept-03 oct-03 Change !!!!

BE 0,8 4 3,2 2 12 10 DK 2 5 3 27 28 1 DE 1) -1 2 3 10 14 4 EL 5 15 10 5 15 10 ES -- 19 24 5 FR -- -4 -3 1 IE -- -4 -10 -6 IT 2 4 2 3 10 7 LU -- 0 NL -- 9 7 -2 AT -- 17 17 0 PT -- -10 -6 4 FI -- -11 10 21 SE -- 3 7 4 UK -- 2 -4 -6

1) Data for August and September

N.A.

N.A.

Quart

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

ECFINN.A.

N.A.

N.A.

HARMONISED INDICATORNATIONAL INDICATOR

N.A

CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

COUNTRY DifferenceChange sept-03 oct-03 Change !!!!

BE -5 -15 -10 -5 -13 -8 DK 0 2 2 2 3 1 DE 5 5,3 0,3 -19 -17 2 EL -40 -39 1 -40 -39 1 ES 1) -26 -23 3 -12 -11 1 FR -27 -29 -2 -23 -24 -1 IE 1) 63 68 5 -18 -12 6 IT 106,9 107 0,1 -12 -14 -2 !!!!LU 4 1 -3 0 NL -35 -36 -1 -14 -15 -1 AT -- -2 -1 1 PT 1) -39 -38 1 -41 -39 2 FI 10,4 11,1 0,7 14 15 1 SE 13,1 5,5 -7,6 8 6 -2 UK -3 -3 0 -3 -3 0

1) Data for August and September

NATIONAL INDICATOR

N.A.

HARMONISED INDICATOR

N.A.

Germany: Economic Sentiment

80

85

90

95

100

105ja

nv-0

0

mai

-00

sept

-00

janv

-01

mai

-01

sept

-01

janv

-02

mai

-02

sept

-02

janv

-03

mai

-03

sept

-03

ECFIN

IFO

Differences

Kind of differences• Level vs development• Long term vs short term

Cause of differences• Coverage• Seasonal Adjustment method• Different questions used