PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino
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Transcript of PROBABILISTIC TRAJECTORIES OF LIGHT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS by Damiano Taurino
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Probabilistic Trajectories of light General Aviation operations ALIAS 2014 – European University Institute - FiesoleDamiano Taurino
in behalf of the ProGA Consortium
ProGA Project
study the feasibility of a system that can continually and automatically predict the future GA aircraft’s flight corridor or its volume of operation
Probabilistic 4d Trajectories of light General Aviation operations
Main Objective
STORYBOARD
1Planning
2Flying
USER NEEDS BENEFITS
APPROACHES CHALLENGES
3
After-flight
CAPT. MASSIMO
BE-FREE
SAFE
PLANNING
G
VFR
PLANNING
TRAFFIC INFO
AVOID KNOWN CRITICAL SPOTS
HOTSPOTS
AB
PLANNING
Intent data
Historical dataACCEPTABILIT
Y
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
hotspots
IN-FLIGHT
IN-FLIGHTBETTER SA
VISUALIZATION
AVOID POTENTIAL CONFLICTS
IN–FLIGHT (short-term prediction)
ACCEPTABILITY
ADSB-LIKE
KALMAN FILTER
Two-phase iterative scheme
IN–FLIGHT
IN-FLIGHT (LONG TERM)
VISUALIZATION
UNCERTAINTY VIS. METHODS
IN-FLIGHT REPLANNING
IN-FLIGHT (LONG TERM)
DATA AVAILAB
BETTER SA
MATCHING
COMPUTATION
RECONSTRUCTION
KDE
KDE FOR TIPICALLY FLOWN PATHS
KDE from the flown paths betweenBernay (LFPD) andSaint-Cyr-l'Ecole (LFPZ)
KDE FOR TIPICALLY FLOWN PATHS
KDE from the flown paths betweenBernay (LFPD) andSaint-Cyr-l'Ecole (LFPZ)
KDE FOR TIPICALLY FLOWN PATHS
KDE from the flown paths betweenBernay (LFPD) andSaint-Cyr-l'Ecole (LFPZ)
AFTER-FLIGHTACCEPTABILIT
Y
SEND FLIGHT PATH
ENGAGEMENTFlown Path
UPLOAD
REAL TIME TRACK
FLIGHT CORRIDORS VS VOLUMES OF OPERATION
FLIGHT CORRIDORS +
HOTSPOTS
VOLUME OF OPERATION
powered glider
FLIGHT CORRIDORS VS VOLUMES OF OPERATION
Termal lift flights
WAY FORWARD
Develop a prototype HMI
Validate the concept with pilots by means of simulations, interviews, observations
Assess the foreseen benefits of a ProGA system in the key performance area of safety
Determine the social acceptance within the GA community of sharing location and intent during flight
Understand certification issues: is it part of the cockpit or just a support tool (e.g. Electronic Flight Bag)?
“A portable EFB is a portable EFB host platform, used on the flight deck, which is not part of the certified aircraft configuration. It hosts type A and/or type B as well as miscellaneous (non- EFB) software applications. If mounted, the portable EFB must be easily removable from its mounting device without the use of tools, by the flight crew.” (CAA UK definition)
LIABILITY AND INSURANCE
It is not an autonomous/automatic system, but it still supports the Pilot in Command in decision making (by presenting a probabilistic information)
In the case of an accident may the use of the tool somehow affect pilot’s liability (negatively or positively)?
Liability and non-certified equipment (e.g. in the case of non-reliable position data transmission)
May the use of the tool bring benefits when taking out insurance (due to enhanced safety)?
CONCLUSIONS
PLANNINGTRAFFIC
INFO
AVOID KNOWN CRITICAL SPOTS
HOTSPOTS
BETTER SA
VISUALIZATION
AVOID POTENTIAL CONFLICTS
ACCEPTABILITY
ADSB-LIKE
KALMAN FILTER
UNCERTAINTY VIS. METHODS
IN-FLIGHT REPLANNING
DATA AVAILAB
MATCHING
COMPUTATION
RECONSTRUCTION
KDEFLIGHT PATH SHARING
ENGAGEMENT
LIBERTY
SAFE
LIABILITY
CONCLUSIONS
ProGA can help improve three layers of conflict management
This will help reducing GA midair collision risk
Trajectorymanagement
Intent basedsurveillance
State basedsurveillance
Midair collision
THANK YOU
Database by Dmitry Baranovskiy from The Noun Project
Process by Takao Umehara from The Noun Project
Airplane by Juan Pablo Bravo from The Noun Project
X and check by useiconic.com from The Noun Project
Captain Massimo
/credits