PROBABILISTIC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH IMPACT EVENTS (THORPEX)

• Goal: Provide highest quality, coordinated, and seamless probabilistic automated guidance products, including information on forecast uncertainty

• Deliverable: Comprehensive suite of ensemble forecast systems (“forecast engine”) that facilitate the generation of automated forecast guidance as a basis for high impact event forecasting for NOAA operations regarding high impact events

• Range of use: All high impact weather, water, and climate forecast applications

THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

Time/spatial scales: All spatial and time scales, including a) Now-casting (6-12 hrs, local scale modeling)b) Short range (up to 3 days, regional modeling)c) Medium- and extended range (up to 15 days, global modeling)d) Sub-seasonal (10-60 days, coupled global ocean / land surface /

atmosphere modeling)e) Seasonal (2-12 months, coupled global OLA modeling)

New aspects of forecast processI) Integrated from observations to user applicationsII) Focused on high impact eventsIII) Probabilistic to capture forecast uncertaintyIV) Seamless guidance from minutes to seasonsV) Adaptive to provide best case dependent infoVI) User controllable to cater to users’ needs

THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

Activities (with funding sources):• Design of observing system for high impact events

– Development of observing instruments/platforms capable of filling gaps in current system (STI)

– Optimal design of satellite & in-situ observing network (EMP)– Adaptive collection and processing of observations (EMP)

• Ensemble-based data assimilation techniques– Ensemble-based forecast error covariance (EMP)– Initial ensemble perturbations (EMP)

• Numerical modeling for high impact events– Ensemble techniques for high impact applications, e.g., air quality / dispersion,

tropical cyclones, extra-tropical storms and other events, fire weather (EMP)– Model-related uncertainties in ensemble forecasting (EMP)– Variable-resolution modeling for high impact events (EMP)

• Socio-economic applications– Statistical bias correction of lead time dependent systematic errors (EMP)– Downscaling to fine resolution information (EMP)– Combination of all forecast information (EMP)– Product generation (EMP / STI)– User applications - Decision Support Systems (STI)

THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

Performance measures: • Possible new probabilistic guidance products for high impact events

– Hydrometeorology• Extreme hydro-meteorological events, incl. dry and wet spells (CONUS)• Quantitative extreme river flow forecasting (Outside the US)

– Tropical / winter storm prediction• Extreme surface wind speed• Precipitation: type & extreme amounts (related to wet spells)• Storm surge & wave height

– Severe weather• Fire weather index• Combined severe weather index

– Aviation forecasting• Flight restriction• Icing, visibility, fog, clear air & convective turbulence

– Health / public safety and economic impact• Hot and cold spells

– Air quality• “Legacy” internal probabilistic scores to assess long-term progress

– General circulation• Probabilistic 1000 & 500 hPa height forecasts

– Tropical/extra-tropical storms• Strike probability for track• Probability of intensity (central pressure or wind-based)

THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

Coordination with other programs: • NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution –

– NFUSE Steering Team Provides: Coordination within NWS and the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise a process for assessing, communicating, and using forecast uncertainty information;

– NFUSE Team receives: Comprehensive plans on automated generation of probabilistic guidance for high impact events, to be coordinated with “human factor” (LFW) and outreach (conveying and using uncertainty information) components of NFUSE process

• W&W – LFW Provides: Requirements and primary application area for probabilistic numerical guidance products; – LFW Receives: High quality probabilistic numerical guidance for high impact

weather forecast applications on all spatial/time scales. – LFW considers distribution within NWS, manipulation (adding value), display,

depository, verification of ensemble forecast data, and training of forecasters• W&W – STI Observing Programs

– STI Observing programs provide: Development of adaptively configurable new observing instruments and platforms;

– STI Observing Programs Receive: NWP guidance on optimal configuration of observing network

• W&W – STI Socioeconomic Applications Activities – STI Socioeconomic applications provide: Advice on forecast products,

development of decision support tools, outreach to external users; – STI Receives: Probabilistic/ensemble numerical guidance for HMT and other

demo projects

THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

Coordination with other programs - 2: • W&W - Hydrology

– Hydrology Provides: Major area of quantitative high impact applications in water management / drought prediction;

– Hydrology Receives: Bias corrected and downscaled precipitation and other relevant probabilistic / ensemble forecasts to be used as forcing in hydrological modeling and drought forecast applications

• W&W – Air Quality (AQ) – AQ Provides: Important application in area affecting public health and safety; – Air Quality Receives: High quality probabilistic / ensemble forecast information

to be coupled with AQ modeling system for Homeland Security and other dispersion plume applications

• Climate Goal – Predictions and Projections Program – Climate Goal Predictions/Projections Provides: Important application area for

ensemble and probabilistic forecast concepts, coupling of atmospheric model with ocean and land surface components, and re-forecasting research (identified as a gap for THORPEX);

– Predictions and Projections Program receives: Ensemble and probabilistic methods suitable for sub-seasonal and seasonal operational forecasting, contributing to seamless weather-climate forecasting capabilities

• Climate Goal - Climate Observations and Analysis (COA) Program– COA Provides: Archive and distributed web services access to ensemble

forecasts through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS);

– COA Receives: Archive of seamless suite of weather / water/ climate forecasts

THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

Coordination with other programs - 3: • Commerce & Transportation Goal – Aviation Program

– Aviation Program Provides: Application area critical to transportation; – Aviation Program Receives: Probabilistic / ensemble numerical guidance for

aviation-related parameters• Commerce & Transportation Goal – Marine Program

– Marine Program Provides: Application area critical to transportation; – Marine Program Receives: Probabilistic / ensemble numerical guidance for

marine transportation-related parameters• Building Community Resilience in the Face of Coastal Hazards – Coastal

Resilience – Coastal resilience Provides: Critical application area for probabilistic forecast

activities; – Coastal Resilience Receives: Early numerical warning for high impact events

THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14