Pro-poor Growth and Aid Coordination from the Japanese Perspective Kenichi Ohno National Graduate...

Pro-poor Growth and Aid Coordination from the Japanese PerspectiveKenichi OhnoNational Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo

Topics for Discussion1. Pro-poor growth 20032. Development experience of East Asia3. Aid harmonization4. Japans engagement principle

(1) Pro-Poor Growth 2003The first round of poverty reduction drive is over (MDGs, PRSP)Renewed recognition that growth is needed for sustained poverty reductionAttention now turns to:--Ensuring pro-poor growth--Trade, investment, infrastructure--Contents of growth strategy

Pro-poor growth???Morally correct, politically convenient and currently very popular, but...Definition?Desirability?--is more equality always good? Should we not balance equality and incentive?Channels and linkages--many ways to cut poverty, direct and indirect. Strategy should be geared to each country.

Equity vs. Incentive TradeoffJohn Rawls: Choose the society which maximizes the welfare of the poorestDeng Xiaoping: Those who can, get rich first. Let others imitate and follow

Innovation requires reward, but too much inequality destabilizes society. The right mix is needed for each country.

Perfect equality is the ideal of communism. Does pro-poor growth (faster rise of the poor) support it?--Where do we stop (criteria)?Society can be too equal and stagnant:--General poverty in poorest countries--Transition from socialist egalitarianism --Welfare state in excess

East Asian Way to SuccessTwo-tier approachPrimary: create source of growth.Supplementary but very important: deal with problems caused by growthincome gap, regional imbalance, environment, congestion, drug, crime, social change, etc.

Yasusuke Murakami: industrialization policy must be combined with supplementing policies or it will fail (Theory of Developmentalism, 1994)

Revised Technocratic Model (E. Asia)Economic growthRising inequalityPolitical stabilityDevelopmental stateFreer & more democratic society a few decades later: ex. Korea, Taiwan)STARTENDSupplementing policies(checked)Adopted with revision from: Samuel P.Huntington and Joan M. Nelson, No Easy Choice: Political Participation in Developing Countries, Harvard Univ. Press, 1976.

Three Channels of Pro-Poor Growth(1) Direct channel (impacting the poor directly)--Health, education, gender, rural jobs & development, etc.(2) Market channel (growth helps poor via economic linkages: a.k.a. trickle down)--Inter-sectoral and inter-regional labor migration (cf. Chinese TVEs) --Increasing demand (cf. proto-industrialization, multiplier effect)--Reinvestment (formal, informal and internal financing)

Three Channels (contd.)(3) Policy channel (supplementing the market channel)--Price support, taxes, subsidies--Fiscal transfer, public investment, infrastructure--Micro and SME credit and other financial measures--Proper design of trade and investment policies--Pro-poor legal framework

Broadening the ScopeSo far, disproportionate attention on direct channelquestion of sustainability and the risk of permanent aid dependencyEmerging emphasis on pro-poor growth--Focus still too narrow, not integrated--Past studies have not been incorporated--The right mix depends on each country

(2) East Asian ExperienceGrowth driven by trade and investmentCollective growth, not isolated or randomStaggered participation in the regional production networkRegion as an enabling environment for catching up (model and pressure)

Asian Dynamism (Flying Geese)Geographic diffusion of industrializationWithin each country, industrialization proceeds from low-tech to high-techClear order and structure (with possibility of re-formation, new entry and dropouts)

Graph: GDP in EA vs Africa

Graph1

661852

9601024

14191311

18701484

27001385

36331368

Africa

East Asia

Source: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD Development Centre, 2001

East Asia

Africa

Per Capita GDP(In 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)

16WorldPerCapitaGDP

World Per Capita GDP by Regions, Annual Estimates, 1950-98

(million 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)

Western EuropeUSAEastern Europe and Former USSRLatin AmericaEast AsiaAfrica

19504594956126012554661852

1960693011328366331679601024

197010297150305183401614191311

198013226185776236541318701484

199015988232146446505527001385

199817921273314354579536331368

Source: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD Development Centre, 2001

AfricaAsiaExportData

13. Africa & East Asia 1960s-90s

Growth Per Capita GNP (%)Share in World Export (%)

East AsiaAfricaEast AsiaAfrica

60s5.82.460s4.93.9

70s6.43.170s5.83.3

80s5.50.680s9.82.7

90s5.70.590s15.71.6

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, White Paper on International Trade 2001, p.78.

2001P78

13AsiaAfricaGNP

13AsiaAfricaGNP

4.93.9

5.83.3

9.82.7

15.71.6

(%)

East Asia

Sub Saharan Africa

East Asia

Africa

Share in World Export

12Growth1960-2000Data

5.82.4

6.43.1

5.50.6

5.70.5

(%)

East Asia

Africa

Growth Per Capita GNP

Sheet3

Growth in GDP 1960-2000

(%)JapanTaiwanKoreaMalaysiaThailandIndonesiaChinaHong KongSingaporePhilippinesVietnamMyanmar

196013.36.31.29.20.71.50.5

196111.96.95.85.24.28.35.64.2

19628.67.92.17.8 0.614.27.04.810.0

19638.89.49.18.0 0.415.79.97.0 6.5

196411.212.29.76.74.88.6 3.53.59.2

19655.711.15.77.80.014.57.55.2 4.5

196610.28.912.211.52.31.711.14.4 4.9

196711.110.75.98.12.31.711.86.19.2

196811.99.211.38.111.13.313.95.610.1

196912.09.013.87.96.011.313.74.88.0

197010.311.48.810.67.59.213.74.61.3

19714.412.99.27.14.97.07.112.54.92.4

19728.413.35.99.44.19.410.313.44.8 1.0

19738.012.814.411.710.011.312.411.59.22.6

1974 1.21.27.98.34.27.62.36.35.02.7

19753.14.97.10.84.95.00.34.16.44.1

19764.013.912.911.69.36.916.27.58.06.1

19774.410.210.17.89.98.811.77.86.26.0

19785.313.69.76.710.57.811.78.58.65.56.5

19795.58.27.69.35.36.37.611.59.36.35.2

19802.87.3 2.27.44.89.97.910.19.75.222.4

19813.26.26.76.96.07.94.49.29.62.94.4

19823.13.67.35.95.32.38.32.76.93.65.4

19832.38.511.86.35.54.210.45.78.21.94.4

19843.910.69.47.85.87.017.310.08.3 7.34.9

19854.45.06.9 1.04.62.513.50.4 1.6 7.32.9

19862.911.611.61.04.95.98.810.81.83.43.4 1.1

19874.112.711.55.49.54.911.613.09.54.33.9 4.0

19886.27.811.38.913.35.811.38.011.16.85.1 11.4

19894.88.26.49.212.27.54.12.69.46.27.83.7

19905.15.49.59.711.67.23.83.48.13.02.32.8

19913.87.69.18.78.47.09.25.17.0 0.56.0 0.7

19921.06.85.17.87.96.514.26.36.40.38.69.7

19930.36.35.88.38.36.513.56.110.42.18.16.0

19940.66.58.69.28.87.512.65.410.54.48.87.5

19951.46.08.99.58.68.210.54.78.84.89.59.8

19963.65.77.18.26.77.89.74.77.05.59.56.4

19971.86.75.07.3 1.44.58.85.08.55.28.25.7

1998 1.04.6 6.7 7.4 10.5 13.17.8 5.3 0.1 0.63.55.8

19990.75.410.96.14.40.87.13.06.93.44.210.9

20002.25.99.38.34.64.88.010.510.34.05.55.5

2001(Est.) 0.4 1.93.00.41.83.37.30.1 2.13.44.7-

Source: Economic Planning Agency, Asian Economic 1997,

IMF, The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database, April 2002 [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2002/01/data/index.htm#2].

World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002, Angus Maddison The World Economy. A Millennial perspective, 2001.

GDP

19962591213570598

19972613154599190

19982539986564211

1999624582

2000

IMF, International Financial Statistics Yearbook 1990.

218841960

219941961

229501962

255031963

239561964

263721965

252391966

240671967

265011968

286101969

East Asia

Sub Saharan Africa

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, White Paper on International Trade 2001, p.78.

Graph: per capita income

BasicData

Basic Data

Size of the economyIntegration with the global economyStructure of merchandise exportsStructure of demandStructure of outputEmployment by economic activityDistribution of income or consumptionMortalityEducation outcomes

PopulationGross national incomeGross national income per capitaPPP gross national income per capitaGross foreign direct investmentManufacturesGross domestic savingsGross capital formationExport of goods and servicesImport of goods and servicesIndustry value addedAgriculture value addedIndustry - labor force [Male]Industry - labor force [Female]Agriculture - labor force [Male]Agriculture - labor force [Female]Gini IndexInfant mortality rateAdult illiteracy rate [Male]Adult illiteracy rate [Female]

million$ billion$$% of GDP% of total$ of GDP% of GDP% of GDP% of GDP% of GDP% of GDP% of male labor force% of female labor force% of male labor force% of female labor forceper 1,000 live births% ages 15 and over% ages 15 and over

2000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020001998-20001998-20001998-20001998-2000200020002000

Japan1274,51935,62027,0800.99428261083213822560.254....

China1,2621,0638403,9204.388403726235116........0.4032824

Korea474218,91017,3003.29131294542435341910130.32814

Taiwan2229013,250......25235452322........0.336513

Hong Kong717625,92025,59089.29532281501451402812000.523310

Singapore49924,74024,91011.68650311801613403323000.393412

Malaysia23793,3808,3302.08047261251044511332921130.498917

Thailand611222,0006,3202.876312367594010201750470.412836

Philippines76791,0404,2202.892241856503116181347270.463155

Indonesia2101205702,8304.257261839314717........0.3241818

Vietnam79303902,0004.1..2527....3724........0.362749

Cambodia1232601,4403.9..81540472037........0.40882043

Lao PDR522901,5405.4..132436482353........0.37923667

Myanmar48..........131301960..........89917

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002.

For Taiwan, ADB, Key Indicators 2001; The National Breau of Asian Research (NBA).

Note: China does not include Hong Kong.

&C&P/&N

SizeD

1.SIZE

East Asian GNPEast Asian PopulationGNP ($ billion)Population (million)[Total $7,013 billion][Total 1,935 million]

% of World% of World

China3%21%1,0631,26215%65%

Japan14%2%4,51912764%7%

Korea & Taiwan2%1%7116910%4%

ASEAN2%8%72047710%25%

TOTAL22%32%7,0131,935100%100%

*World TTL=31315*World TTL=6057GNPPopulation

Hong Kong1767

Singapore994

Malaysia7923

Thailand12261

Philippines7976

Indonesia120210

Vietnam3079

Cambodia312

Lao PDR25

Myanmar1048

Taiwan29022

Korea42147

1SIZE

0.15156786970.64441655850.10140174260.1026138292

0.65219638240.06563307490.03565891470.2465116279

at Actual Exchange Rate

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002; For Taiwan, ADB, Key Indicators 2001.

East Asian Population

East Asian GNP

(32% of World Total)

(22% of World Total)

China

Japan

Korea & Taiwan

ASEAN

SIZE (2000)

Japan65%

Korea & Taiwan10%

Korea & Taiwan4%

ASEAN24%

CapitaIncomeD

2. Per Capita Income

$Gross national income per capitaPPP gross national income per capita

20002000

Japan35,62027,080

Hong Kong25,92025,590

Singapore24,74024,910

Korea8,91017,300

Malaysia3,3808,330

Thailand2,0006,320

Philippines1,0404,220

China8403,920

Indonesia5702,830

Vietnam3902,000

Lao PDR2901,540

Cambodia2601,440

Taiwan13,250..

2CAPITAINCOME

3562027080

2592025590

2474024910

891017300

33808330

20006320

10404220

8403920

5702830

3902000

2901540

2601440

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002.

at Actual Exchange Rate

at PPP

Gross national income per capita

PPP gross national income per capita

US$

Per Capita Income (2000)

Openness

3. OpennessExport of goods and servicesImport of goods and services

% of GDP% of GDP

TOTAL20002000

Singapore341180161

Hong Kong295150145

Malaysia229125104

Thailand1266759

Taiwan1065452

Philippines1065650

Vietnam94

Korea874542

Cambodia874047

Lao PDR843648

Indonesia703931

China492623

Japan18108

Myanmar101

3OPEN

341

295

229

126

106

106

94

87

87

84

70

49

18

1

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002; For Taiwan, National Bureau of Asian Reseach.

(Total trade as % of GDP)

%

Openness (2000)

InvestmntD

4. Investment

Gross foreign direct investment

% of GDP

2000*Low & middle income average=3.5

Singapore11.6*Low income countries average = 1.6

Lao PDR5.4*Middle income countries average = 3.8

China4.3

Indonesia4.2

Vietnam4.1

Cambodia3.9

Korea3.2

Thailand2.8

Philippines2.8

Malaysia2.0

Japan0.9

Taiwan..

Myanmar..

Hong Kong89.2

4INVESTMNT

11.6

5.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

3.9

3.2

2.8

2.8

2

0.9

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002.

(% of GDP)

Average of low income countries

Average of middle income countries

%

Gross Foreign Direct Investment (2000)

Output

5. Output

Structure of output

IndustryAgricultureService

% of GDP% of GDP% of GDP

200020002000

Myanmar96031

Lao PDR235324

Cambodia203743

Vietnam372439

Indonesia471736

China511633

Philippines311653

Malaysia451144

Thailand401050

Korea43552

Taiwan32266

Japan32167

Hong Kong14086

Singapore34066

5OUTPUT

60931

532324

372043

243739

174736

165133

163153

114544

104050

54352

23266

13267

01486

03466


Agriculture

Industry

Service

Output Structure (2000)

Gini

6. Gini

Distribution of income or consumption

Gini Index

Hong Kong0.52

Malaysia0.49

Philippines0.46

Thailand0.41

Cambodia0.40

China0.40

Singapore0.39

Lao PDR0.37

Vietnam0.36

Taiwan0.33

Indonesia0.32

Korea0.32

Japan0.25

Myanmar..

6GINI

0.522

0.492

0.462

0.414

0.404

0.403

0.39

0.37

0.361

0.33

0.317

0.316

0.249

Note: Most recent results, ranging from 1993-99.Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002; For Taiwan & Singapore, ADB, Key Indicators 2001.

Gini Coefficient of Income Distribution

Mortality

7. Mortality

Mortality

Infant mortality rate

per 1,000 live births

2000*Low income countries average= 76

Lao PDR92*Middle income countries average=31

Myanmar89*Low and middle income countires average=58

Cambodia88

Indonesia41

China32

Philippines31

Thailand28

Vietnam27

Korea8

Malaysia8

Taiwan6

Japan4

Hong Kong3

Singapore3

7MORTALITY

92

89

88

41

32

31

28

27

8

8

6

4

3

3


(per 1,000 live births)



Infant Mortality Rate (2000)

Illiteracy

8. Iliteracy

Adult illiteracy rate [Female]

% ages 15 and over

2000*Low income countries average= 47

Lao PDR67*Middle income countries average=19

Cambodia43*Low and middle income countires average=31

China24

Indonesia18

Malaysia17

Myanmar17

Taiwan13

Singapore12

Hong Kong10

Vietnam9

Thailand6

Philippines5

Korea4

Japan..

8ILLITERACY

67

43

24

18

17

17

13

12

10

9

6

5

4

%




Female Adult Illiteracy Rate (2000)

Graph: manufactured exports

Export02

Manufactured exports (SITC5,6,7,8)

Vietnam (Million US$)Indonesia (Million US$)Malaysia (Million Ringgit)Philippines (Million US$)Thailand (Million Baht)China (Million US$)Hong Kong (Million HK$)Korea, Rep. (Million US$)Myanmer (Million Kyats)Singapore (Million S'pore$)Taiwan (Billion New Taiwan$)Japan

Total exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. Mfg

1960841363362486142559321065.53477

19617843238670999719424010543309

1962682326050995291913541261.13417

1963696333065396762031851287.63475

196472433824101233922501171110.22772

196570837836981294125631761072.23004

19666793846826140992681251925.83374

19676653727820141662388322589.53491

19687314123858136792340455530.63891

19698545055854147092429621627.14741

19701108516310471477223078345134756

19711234501710981727527831069594.65371

19721777485411012249136921624653.56149

19733211737218853222658763226640.48907

197474261019527264979971084460911.814155

1975-----71022.4%24923221923130.4%791624573529229416.3%22238121014500719.6%2436419573158276892983174.3%1923079333215565508181.6%691495762182113224.5%1643-11275841.8%47610862895880201.581.3%3.947.739.373.016,545,31495.4%1,152,9685,199,8858,132,5671,292,248

1976-----85472.1%287453271344226.5%822133740609257417.9%27240251696079721.8%26893361231243269434155676.2%2354308479122322771587.7%11423471383292516282.9%740-11626744.7%610132941071232309.985.1%6.572.865.1119.219,934,61896.1%1,111,9555,594,94010,650,4051,792,365

1977-----108533.5%6023660291495926.5%8723241001545315118.3%51255542167119823.5%298119631713275075204483475.6%30342015702236681004784.9%22130321853342616005.0%871-12008943.0%716160249171402355.185.0%8.279.280.0134.321,648,07096.5%1,158,0305,551,09612,034,1952,154,636

1978648----116434.2%5533271311707430.7%10228251816496342522.2%59306753228306529.9%444174792719421399555390772.7%34546356403278151271188.5%329379627114414206625.8%12522--2298646.0%870226057151725468.485.7%8.9109.8109.4173.520,555,84196.6%1,076,8894,869,17111,720,2852,191,560

1979587----155905.3%64571116812422227.2%13133152535604460123.6%1124198846610817931.8%7222353239726149136147593470.8%43265099314375251505689.2%50448313236485425885.3%1134-33094046.2%1124284282172122579.387.3%12.2147.9136.6209.122,531,53996.2%1,332,4015,725,29112,080,7212,528,841

1980537----239513.9%846151091202817227.8%17236913238738578824.1%11853313261213319734.9%93629474761884671809948.6%1121399884128369824366.6%542773212375448141750590.2%75562523555522927337.5%-203-24145244.7%14183442110892572712.288.2%18.0163.5176.0270.629,382,47296.0%1,544,4637,074,55316,084,4823,509,883

1981467----251654.4%647771541212710927.7%19232813325700572225.3%10547616170415300131.1%1191269417662117312200748.4%131446111068364912216363.7%755860615043533812125490.4%64472324839650134535.4%3176-84429045.0%15563670117792919829.989.0%20.3189.3212.4316.333,468,98596.6%1,502,5007,426,58618,998,9904,408,564

1982595----223285.4%618171801412810828.3%23626264335754502124.2%9633617161215972831.0%1253265878293134042232145.9%117342171236363012738662.9%785831315074559962185391.6%67066506153653430364.5%4123-104447344.8%17223839115462832864.389.0%23.1187.8218.9339.734,432,50196.7%1,580,3707,710,42719,349,3374,652,444

1983588----211468.6%11913501332133277130.2%29430355653902500526.4%8636925461214647234.7%1673260028356147562222647.9%125143651221380416069962.1%10161106923328644002444591.4%67769577981672134207.4%24211-174615550.7%195636831467830841005.589.9%25.0219.7263.8395.234,909,26996.8%1,658,7916,876,39120,223,5895,038,764

1984665----2188810.6%17015652233723864729.8%427255573231196539126.4%10537141753217523735.9%21872918711959195582613948.2%136450541493469722144159.9%13121388433300840412924591.6%845737810462809331957.2%6211-145134051.3%246436251686534081204.791.0%30.7251.1339.0476.040,325,29497.0%1,805,5757,144,47524,335,2465,850,168

1985750----1858713.7%2101804984373801731.5%428309570591391462931.6%15146830953719336641.0%24403586016977240302735037.0%13584493772348623515252.7%12771291228554810903028391.7%936706411384837226545.4%27104-115017952.3%271735981656733781223.090.7%30.8263.8340.7474.041,955,65997.2%1,843,3486,903,71225,873,3436,149,496

198678929.2%105411651480520.2%2601984636783531938.8%605258790101500484234.2%24343439258723338344.9%33814339224851331663094244.2%173358861094494827653053.4%15021704233306957833471592.2%10688173116611109425149.5%57161-214898660.0%284036331890140421507.091.3%40.9307.1438.6589.7209,151.297.6%21,536.1182,693.4

198785428.5%105711751713625.1%2513267577324522541.5%7363710117012619572035.4%24546955375829985352.2%45285875135522577733943747.7%223585701741627337803449.5%251224157431551172084728192.6%1321101981690615349167914.2%6814412146026666.6%376245232627455561707.692.2%45.0343.6551.2634.4229,221.297.6%22,901.4200,756.5

1988103828.9%137022151921930.7%346428112611545526045.6%12214488156663830707436.4%25668767695340357054.9%48387686563789759804751651.4%2897104892769826849306942.2%420825844551041230876069693.4%187912645234581873221937.8%461112127905371.8%519965293793971111731.892.7%59.7357.6610.2578.3264,916.897.4%25,227.2232,686.3

1989194628.7%149114522215938.9%489617619617486782551.0%12335721219875621782140.4%279741940119651631557.0%645793563918011027095253854.7%32011089738741075557050937.5%534726996562351251806237793.5%204913735235901897228476.1%331171248711673.2%573770844314278151747.893.3%63.7363.2648.0555.1275,174.697.2%25,579.3241,850.2

1990240429.2%1810715752567537.9%596610235126907964655.2%12986320284187943818640.9%261742972137558981363.4%83321081511309131262516209155.7%37301257655881268663987433.5%665126995561241248066501693.8%251214357255451857329627.8%9205-179520672.3%597066514773385001802.893.5%74.8384.9705.2520.5286,947.597.0%27,774.6250,510.2

1991208717.5%88162712914243.1%810719563839289449761.6%166773603886610320884041.4%3047041210144072563065.4%139981208711756921641557184358.5%38181445671491662076588628.6%745428064595411236977187093.1%319016079299851764429324.6%16416910188073.5%668073205169792292040.893.4%93.8438.9799.4574.7314,525.597.0%29,994.8275,228.1

1992258116.0%119273033396749.6%75591831318557510365765.5%212388314541111504982443.6%2696831671165782464466.7%152031361532201331784748494080.0%434816135132193423492495323.8%768628316614371225267663293.1%4454184913255615875365511.0%1280111910335177.8%673271145693995932048.093.8%96.2435.7840.0548.4339,649.697.0%32,103.3297,278.2

1993298521.5%14160214483682353.6%82996682206703112123870.6%26391160058797125241137543.6%2628002119177393586271.5%203881775782811361899489174481.8%4623163921528238781104625020.1%776528009616971123428223693.4%4921206863695114233422811.1%21992124711947379.4%766377566964197682239.094.0%113.7488.2989.6512.7360,911.196.8%31,885.5317,479.7TotalFoodCrude MaterialMineralFuel

1994405428.2%12227988074005352.6%101094703048755015392174.6%40831390682200146091348345.0%30687429071982113760072.3%2417418959938077622738612100683.8%6236232182198549937117001317.9%841826455622111124729601393.6%6339229494706713504540511.8%22472436714732783.3%8418885694199111852456.093.9%143.6578.61113.3471.840497698.3%6894182625242544

1995544932.8%313508913154541852.1%1524104383828787618498775.7%562916340101995161321744743.4%343111638692245140631173.1%4301025435447553825578914878085.6%9094322403140754548134412716.2%9178257116814911530412505892.4%8944275686564613382504414.3%23464932616751586.1%999911614110007125522949.694.0%199.2684.41419.9468.241530998.3%7003168827902525

1996725637.3%6638241518474981552.6%1726107964999868819702676.7%625618290108930177142054343.6%353114150972368141211171.4%3870322507253675320744415104885.5%8877284983531256424139791714.3%8691245385936010719312971589.4%9148269596758412237548815.9%23865942517627284.7%988510072116262131033176.694.2%194.6723.41599.2475.544731398.3%7423189431942335

1997918547.9%10756375329795344443.3%187697024624694222089077.4%787819871123984193262522845.4%383111375342436180669971.5%6682327951770534724035918279286.9%10227344324370970467145594913.7%8077223505870710974913616488.1%10666290976811012032644715.9%34467350218561385.3%1113610402122474142603481.795.6%200.6809.71828.8489.450938098.3%8514236335202631

1998936046.5%9444180930074884845.4%209187734656665928656379.7%996223819169702249462949640.5%34095382532389224745472.7%8881434519990441229442418380988.8%10321324775021770200134764913.4%6753181644647110877013231387.9%10235285846509012421675618.9%106905252718376385.6%118328327122116150243693.396.3%209.0849.31998.5500.450645098.4%7960238536501925

19991154048.0%14786597835514866555.3%2382110315293822332156081.1%1035324243200072261883503742.1%2951048110922325221396574.5%10351534331693234227069319493189.8%10373332625883672510134900012.2%5655156233973110311414368690.9%10757279167795413919710327.3%1602280105319429087.0%153268445128807164143917.496.3%231.5839.72187.4515.547548098.5%7040213032101700

2000143086212458.3%31671233910769994837330781.3%1429925896233332298763807847.9%3281222140492656277773376.2%159418426418121436331549024920389.7%12098425498260286282157268911.1%6300158774484610777317262890.9%13784303801002751243323782686.3%164889017160402193824616.396.2%287.9896.82696.6559.951654098.6%7390212034001870

2001

ADB, Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries, 2001/1993;


For Japan, Japan Statistical Yearbook 2002/1999, Statistics Bureau/Statistical Research and Training Institute,

Mill PesosRATEBillion YuanRATEChemMaterialsMachineMisc.Billion WonRATEChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgBillion T$RATEChemMaterialsMachineMisc.RATEChemMaterialsMachineMisc.

196012582.0156.32.4618263.13

196113542.024.782.46185124.79

196218983.72794.712.46187130

196325523.910452.461811130

196416043.915.542.461825213.85

196527283.90926.312.461847266.4

196632203.96.62.461868271.34

196731993.95.882.461887270.52

196833453.95.762.4618126276.65

196933323.95.982.4618179288.16

197061835.90445.682.4618259310.56

197170646.43176.852.4618371347.15

197273516.67488.292.2451638392.89

1973127356.756311.691.98941285398.32

1974185056.787913.941.96121804404.47

1975166077.247914.31.8598----2459484201.5383.947.739.373

197613.481.9414----309.9386.572.865.1119.2

197713.971.8578----355.1388.279.280134.3

197816.761.6836----468.437.0548.9109.8109.4173.5

197921.171.5550----579.336.04812.2147.9136.6209.1

198027.111.49841.685.991.264.25712.236.01518163.5176270.6

198136.761.70452.247.861.826.22829.936.84920.3189.3212.4316.3

198241.381.89252.227.982.346.87864.339.12423.1187.8218.9339.7

43.831.97572.478.612.417.51005.540.06525219.7263.8395.2

25.1

Summary

Manufactured exports (% of total exports)

(Value-copied from data table)

JapanTaiwanKoreaSingaporeMalaysiaThailandPhilippinesIndonesiaChinaVietnamMyanmar

197595.4%81.3%81.6%41.8%30.4%19.6%16.3%2.4%4.5%

197696.1%85.1%87.7%44.7%26.5%21.8%17.9%2.1%2.9%

197796.5%85.0%84.9%43.0%26.5%23.5%18.3%3.5%5.0%

197896.6%85.7%88.5%46.0%30.7%29.9%22.2%4.2%25.8%

197996.2%87.3%89.2%46.2%27.2%31.8%23.6%5.3%5.3%

198096.0%88.2%90.2%44.7%27.8%34.9%24.1%3.9%48.6%7.5%

198196.6%89.0%90.4%45.0%27.7%31.1%25.3%4.4%48.4%5.4%

198296.7%89.0%91.6%44.8%28.3%31.0%24.2%5.4%45.9%4.5%

198396.8%89.9%91.4%50.7%30.2%34.7%26.4%8.6%47.9%7.4%

198497.0%91.0%91.6%51.3%29.8%35.9%26.4%10.6%48.2%7.2%

198597.2%90.7%91.7%52.3%31.5%41.0%31.6%13.7%37.0%5.4%

198697.6%91.3%92.2%60.0%38.8%44.9%34.2%20.2%44.2%29.2%9.5%

198797.6%92.2%92.6%66.6%41.5%52.2%35.4%25.1%47.7%28.5%14.2%

198897.4%92.7%93.4%71.8%45.6%54.9%36.4%30.7%51.4%28.9%7.8%

198997.2%93.3%93.5%73.2%51.0%57.0%40.4%38.9%54.7%28.7%6.1%

199097.0%93.5%93.8%72.3%55.2%63.4%40.9%37.9%55.7%29.2%7.8%

199197.0%93.4%93.1%73.5%61.6%65.4%41.4%43.1%58.5%17.5%4.6%

199297.0%93.8%93.1%77.8%65.5%66.7%43.6%49.6%80.0%16.0%11.0%

199396.8%94.0%93.4%79.4%70.6%71.5%43.6%53.6%81.8%21.5%11.1%

199498.3%93.9%93.6%83.3%74.6%72.3%45.0%52.6%83.8%28.2%11.8%

199598.3%94.0%92.4%86.1%75.7%73.1%43.4%52.1%85.6%32.8%14.3%

199698.3%94.2%89.4%84.7%76.7%71.4%43.6%52.6%85.5%37.3%15.9%

199798.3%95.6%88.1%85.3%77.4%71.5%45.4%43.3%86.9%47.9%15.9%

199898.4%96.3%87.9%85.6%79.7%72.7%40.5%45.4%88.8%46.5%18.9%

199998.5%96.3%90.9%87.0%81.1%74.5%42.1%55.3%89.8%48.0%27.3%

200098.6%96.2%90.9%86.3%81.3%76.2%47.9%58.3%89.7%

Graph

Sources: ADB, Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries, 2001/1993; IMF, International Financial Statistics Yearbook 1990. For Japan, Japan Statistical Yearbook 2002/1999, Statistics Bureau/Statistical Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications, Japan.

Export02

Manufactured exports (SITC5,6,7,8)

Vietnam (Million US$)Indonesia (Million US$)Malaysia (Million Ringgit)Philippines (Million US$)Thailand (Million Baht)China (Million US$)Hong Kong (Million HK$)Korea, Rep. (Million US$)Myanmer (Million Kyats)Singapore (Million S'pore$)Taiwan (Billion New Taiwan$)Japan

Total exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgTotal exp.Manu%ChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. Mfg

1960841363362486142559321065.53477

19617843238670999719424010543309

1962682326050995291913541261.13417

1963696333065396762031851287.63475

196472433824101233922501171110.22772

196570837836981294125631761072.23004

19666793846826140992681251925.83374

19676653727820141662388322589.53491

19687314123858136792340455530.63891

19698545055854147092429621627.14741

19701108516310471477223078345134756

19711234501710981727527831069594.65371

19721777485411012249136921624653.56149

19733211737218853222658763226640.48907

197474261019527264979971084460911.814155

1975-----71022.4%24923221923130.4%791624573529229416.3%22238121014500719.6%2436419573158276892983174.3%1923079333215565508181.6%691495762182113224.5%1643-11275841.8%47610862895880201.581.3%3.947.739.373.016,545,31495.4%1,152,9685,199,8858,132,5671,292,248

1976-----85472.1%287453271344226.5%822133740609257417.9%27240251696079721.8%26893361231243269434155676.2%2354308479122322771587.7%11423471383292516282.9%740-11626744.7%610132941071232309.985.1%6.572.865.1119.219,934,61896.1%1,111,9555,594,94010,650,4051,792,365

1977-----108533.5%6023660291495926.5%8723241001545315118.3%51255542167119823.5%298119631713275075204483475.6%30342015702236681004784.9%22130321853342616005.0%871-12008943.0%716160249171402355.185.0%8.279.280.0134.321,648,07096.5%1,158,0305,551,09612,034,1952,154,636

1978648----116434.2%5533271311707430.7%10228251816496342522.2%59306753228306529.9%444174792719421399555390772.7%34546356403278151271188.5%329379627114414206625.8%12522--2298646.0%870226057151725468.485.7%8.9109.8109.4173.520,555,84196.6%1,076,8894,869,17111,720,2852,191,560

1979587----155905.3%64571116812422227.2%13133152535604460123.6%1124198846610817931.8%7222353239726149136147593470.8%43265099314375251505689.2%50448313236485425885.3%1134-33094046.2%1124284282172122579.387.3%12.2147.9136.6209.122,531,53996.2%1,332,4015,725,29112,080,7212,528,841

1980537----239513.9%846151091202817227.8%17236913238738578824.1%11853313261213319734.9%93629474761884671809948.6%1121399884128369824366.6%542773212375448141750590.2%75562523555522927337.5%-203-24145244.7%14183442110892572712.288.2%18.0163.5176.0270.629,382,47296.0%1,544,4637,074,55316,084,4823,509,883

1981467----251654.4%647771541212710927.7%19232813325700572225.3%10547616170415300131.1%1191269417662117312200748.4%131446111068364912216363.7%755860615043533812125490.4%64472324839650134535.4%3176-84429045.0%15563670117792919829.989.0%20.3189.3212.4316.333,468,98596.6%1,502,5007,426,58618,998,9904,408,564

1982595----223285.4%618171801412810828.3%23626264335754502124.2%9633617161215972831.0%1253265878293134042232145.9%117342171236363012738662.9%785831315074559962185391.6%67066506153653430364.5%4123-104447344.8%17223839115462832864.389.0%23.1187.8218.9339.734,432,50196.7%1,580,3707,710,42719,349,3374,652,444

1983588----211468.6%11913501332133277130.2%29430355653902500526.4%8636925461214647234.7%1673260028356147562222647.9%125143651221380416069962.1%10161106923328644002444591.4%67769577981672134207.4%24211-174615550.7%195636831467830841005.589.9%25.0219.7263.8395.234,909,26996.8%1,658,7916,876,39120,223,5895,038,764

1984665----2188810.6%17015652233723864729.8%427255573231196539126.4%10537141753217523735.9%21872918711959195582613948.2%136450541493469722144159.9%13121388433300840412924591.6%845737810462809331957.2%6211-145134051.3%246436251686534081204.791.0%30.7251.1339.0476.040,325,29497.0%1,805,5757,144,47524,335,2465,850,168

1985750----1858713.7%2101804984373801731.5%428309570591391462931.6%15146830953719336641.0%24403586016977240302735037.0%13584493772348623515252.7%12771291228554810903028391.7%936706411384837226545.4%27104-115017952.3%271735981656733781223.090.7%30.8263.8340.7474.041,955,65997.2%1,843,3486,903,71225,873,3436,149,496

198678929.2%105411651480520.2%2601984636783531938.8%605258790101500484234.2%24343439258723338344.9%33814339224851331663094244.2%173358861094494827653053.4%15021704233306957833471592.2%10688173116611109425149.5%57161-214898660.0%284036331890140421507.091.3%40.9307.1438.6589.7209,151.297.6%21,536.1182,693.4

198785428.5%105711751713625.1%2513267577324522541.5%7363710117012619572035.4%24546955375829985352.2%45285875135522577733943747.7%223585701741627337803449.5%251224157431551172084728192.6%1321101981690615349167914.2%6814412146026666.6%376245232627455561707.692.2%45.0343.6551.2634.4229,221.297.6%22,901.4200,756.5

1988103828.9%137022151921930.7%346428112611545526045.6%12214488156663830707436.4%25668767695340357054.9%48387686563789759804751651.4%2897104892769826849306942.2%420825844551041230876069693.4%187912645234581873221937.8%461112127905371.8%519965293793971111731.892.7%59.7357.6610.2578.3264,916.897.4%25,227.2232,686.3

1989194628.7%149114522215938.9%489617619617486782551.0%12335721219875621782140.4%279741940119651631557.0%645793563918011027095253854.7%32011089738741075557050937.5%534726996562351251806237793.5%204913735235901897228476.1%331171248711673.2%573770844314278151747.893.3%63.7363.2648.0555.1275,174.697.2%25,579.3241,850.2

1990240429.2%1810715752567537.9%596610235126907964655.2%12986320284187943818640.9%261742972137558981363.4%83321081511309131262516209155.7%37301257655881268663987433.5%665126995561241248066501693.8%251214357255451857329627.8%9205-179520672.3%597066514773385001802.893.5%74.8384.9705.2520.5286,947.597.0%27,774.6250,510.2

1991208717.5%88162712914243.1%810719563839289449761.6%166773603886610320884041.4%3047041210144072563065.4%139981208711756921641557184358.5%38181445671491662076588628.6%745428064595411236977187093.1%319016079299851764429324.6%16416910188073.5%668073205169792292040.893.4%93.8438.9799.4574.7314,525.597.0%29,994.8275,228.1

1992258116.0%119273033396749.6%75591831318557510365765.5%212388314541111504982443.6%2696831671165782464466.7%152031361532201331784748494080.0%434816135132193423492495323.8%768628316614371225267663293.1%4454184913255615875365511.0%1280111910335177.8%673271145693995932048.093.8%96.2435.7840.0548.4339,649.697.0%32,103.3297,278.2

1993298521.5%14160214483682353.6%82996682206703112123870.6%26391160058797125241137543.6%2628002119177393586271.5%203881775782811361899489174481.8%4623163921528238781104625020.1%776528009616971123428223693.4%4921206863695114233422811.1%21992124711947379.4%766377566964197682239.094.0%113.7488.2989.6512.7360,911.196.8%31,885.5317,479.7TotalFoodCrude MaterialMineralFuel

1994405428.2%12227988074005352.6%101094703048755015392174.6%40831390682200146091348345.0%30687429071982113760072.3%2417418959938077622738612100683.8%6236232182198549937117001317.9%841826455622111124729601393.6%6339229494706713504540511.8%22472436714732783.3%8418885694199111852456.093.9%143.6578.61113.3471.840497698.3%6894182625242544

1995544932.8%313508913154541852.1%1524104383828787618498775.7%562916340101995161321744743.4%343111638692245140631173.1%4301025435447553825578914878085.6%9094322403140754548134412716.2%9178257116814911530412505892.4%8944275686564613382504414.3%23464932616751586.1%999911614110007125522949.694.0%199.2684.41419.9468.241530998.3%7003168827902525

1996725637.3%6638241518474981552.6%1726107964999868819702676.7%625618290108930177142054343.6%353114150972368141211171.4%3870322507253675320744415104885.5%8877284983531256424139791714.3%8691245385936010719312971589.4%9148269596758412237548815.9%23865942517627284.7%988510072116262131033176.694.2%194.6723.41599.2475.544731398.3%7423189431942335

1997918547.9%10756375329795344443.3%187697024624694222089077.4%787819871123984193262522845.4%383111375342436180669971.5%6682327951770534724035918279286.9%10227344324370970467145594913.7%8077223505870710974913616488.1%10666290976811012032644715.9%34467350218561385.3%1113610402122474142603481.795.6%200.6809.71828.8489.450938098.3%8514236335202631

1998936046.5%9444180930074884845.4%209187734656665928656379.7%996223819169702249462949640.5%34095382532389224745472.7%8881434519990441229442418380988.8%10321324775021770200134764913.4%6753181644647110877013231387.9%10235285846509012421675618.9%106905252718376385.6%118328327122116150243693.396.3%209.0849.31998.5500.450645098.4%7960238536501925

19991154048.0%14786597835514866555.3%2382110315293822332156081.1%1035324243200072261883503742.1%2951048110922325221396574.5%10351534331693234227069319493189.8%10373332625883672510134900012.2%5655156233973110311414368690.9%10757279167795413919710327.3%1602280105319429087.0%153268445128807164143917.496.3%231.5839.72187.4515.547548098.5%7040213032101700

2000143086212458.3%31671233910769994837330781.3%1429925896233332298763807847.9%3281222140492656277773376.2%159418426418121436331549024920389.7%12098425498260286282157268911.1%6300158774484610777317262890.9%13784303801002751243323782686.3%164889017160402193824616.396.2%287.9896.82696.6559.951654098.6%7390212034001870

2001

ADB, Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries, 2001/1993;


For Japan, Japan Statistical Yearbook 2002/1999, Statistics Bureau/Statistical Research and Training Institute,

Mill PesosRATEBillion YuanRATEChemMaterialsMachineMisc.Billion WonRATEChemicalsMaterialsMachineryMisc. MfgBillion T$RATEChemMaterialsMachineMisc.RATEChemMaterialsMachineMisc.

196012582.0156.32.4618263.13

196113542.024.782.46185124.79

196218983.72794.712.46187130

196325523.910452.461811130

196416043.915.542.461825213.85

196527283.90926.312.461847266.4

196632203.96.62.461868271.34

196731993.95.882.461887270.52

196833453.95.762.4618126276.65

196933323.95.982.4618179288.16

197061835.90445.682.4618259310.56

197170646.43176.852.4618371347.15

197273516.67488.292.2451638392.89

1973127356.756311.691.98941285398.32

1974185056.787913.941.96121804404.47

1975166077.247914.31.8598----2459484201.5383.947.739.373

197613.481.9414----309.9386.572.865.1119.2

197713.971.8578----355.1388.279.280134.3

197816.761.6836----468.437.0548.9109.8109.4173.5

197921.171.5550----579.336.04812.2147.9136.6209.1

198027.111.49841.685.991.264.25712.236.01518163.5176270.6

198136.761.70452.247.861.826.22829.936.84920.3189.3212.4316.3

198241.381.89252.227.982.346.87864.339.12423.1187.8218.9339.7

43.831.97572.478.612.417.51005.540.06525219.7263.8395.2

25.1

Summary

Manufactured exports (% of total exports)

(Value-copied from data table)

JapanTaiwanKoreaSingaporeMalaysiaThailandPhilippinesIndonesiaChinaVietnamMyanmar

197595.4%81.3%81.6%41.8%30.4%19.6%16.3%2.4%4.5%

197696.1%85.1%87.7%44.7%26.5%21.8%17.9%2.1%2.9%

197796.5%85.0%84.9%43.0%26.5%23.5%18.3%3.5%5.0%

197896.6%85.7%88.5%46.0%30.7%29.9%22.2%4.2%25.8%

197996.2%87.3%89.2%46.2%27.2%31.8%23.6%5.3%5.3%

198096.0%88.2%90.2%44.7%27.8%34.9%24.1%3.9%48.6%7.5%

198196.6%89.0%90.4%45.0%27.7%31.1%25.3%4.4%48.4%5.4%

198296.7%89.0%91.6%44.8%28.3%31.0%24.2%5.4%45.9%4.5%

198396.8%89.9%91.4%50.7%30.2%34.7%26.4%8.6%47.9%7.4%

198497.0%91.0%91.6%51.3%29.8%35.9%26.4%10.6%48.2%7.2%

198597.2%90.7%91.7%52.3%31.5%41.0%31.6%13.7%37.0%5.4%

198697.6%91.3%92.2%60.0%38.8%44.9%34.2%20.2%44.2%29.2%9.5%

198797.6%92.2%92.6%66.6%41.5%52.2%35.4%25.1%47.7%28.5%14.2%

198897.4%92.7%93.4%71.8%45.6%54.9%36.4%30.7%51.4%28.9%7.8%

198997.2%93.3%93.5%73.2%51.0%57.0%40.4%38.9%54.7%28.7%6.1%

199097.0%93.5%93.8%72.3%55.2%63.4%40.9%37.9%55.7%29.2%7.8%

199197.0%93.4%93.1%73.5%61.6%65.4%41.4%43.1%58.5%17.5%4.6%

199297.0%93.8%93.1%77.8%65.5%66.7%43.6%49.6%80.0%16.0%11.0%

199396.8%94.0%93.4%79.4%70.6%71.5%43.6%53.6%81.8%21.5%11.1%

199498.3%93.9%93.6%83.3%74.6%72.3%45.0%52.6%83.8%28.2%11.8%

199598.3%94.0%92.4%86.1%75.7%73.1%43.4%52.1%85.6%32.8%14.3%

199698.3%94.2%89.4%84.7%76.7%71.4%43.6%52.6%85.5%37.3%15.9%

199798.3%95.6%88.1%85.3%77.4%71.5%45.4%43.3%86.9%47.9%15.9%

199898.4%96.3%87.9%85.6%79.7%72.7%40.5%45.4%88.8%46.5%18.9%

199998.5%96.3%90.9%87.0%81.1%74.5%42.1%55.3%89.8%48.0%27.3%

200098.6%96.2%90.9%86.3%81.3%76.2%47.9%58.3%89.7%

Graph

0.95360341910.81339950370.81617791770.41832575640.30386740330.19590285960.1625980820.0237961138197519750.0453857791

0.96062362470.85059696680.87738172390.44740886460.26513911620.21821800420.17909867910.0212940213197619760.0294840295

0.96534965930.84961982540.8492087190.42993678130.26452302960.23489423860.18279911140.0354740625197719770.05

0.96604682820.85738684880.88506018410.45984512310.30684081060.29922349970.22248175180.0419994847197819780.2584704743

0.96164110230.87312273430.89167109460.46234647710.27186029230.31776037860.23581830040.0533675433197919790.0533230294

0.96021127830.88191519240.90208511850.44680594420.2782550050.34906942350.2410158950.03874577260.485996415219800.0750091475

0.96616733370.88962525610.90411216710.449853240.27658711130.31061888480.25270884310.04434730780.483592362919810.0541558065

0.96689398190.89031586250.91552647230.44833944190.28287320340.31013347690.24198366860.05369939090.459489931919820.0451251647

0.96815361560.89875683740.91372468810.50700899140.30160812910.34673521220.26393606390.08583183580.478763610219830.0736842105

0.97049420150.9104341330.91564369980.5134787690.29759101610.35889110180.2643294380.10645102340.482344389619840.0723004695

0.97173778150.90703188880.91655384210.52332649120.3149380540.41013932130.31648304170.13713886050.369616087819850.0535041447

0.97646822010.91327140010.92167650870.60049810150.38794982870.44900442620.34200743490.2016210740.44150345810.29150823830.0950676213

0.97572955730.92187866010.92582644190.66563236320.41494748480.52216919620.3540209790.25134220350.47719146990.28454332550.1417510423

0.9735641530.92724333060.93439435880.71822701230.456116540.54878211960.3635849590.30735209950.51399528580.2890173410.0779753762

0.97185387020.93260098410.93537682160.73210432070.5095761150.57044633610.40352896050.38851031180.54678518410.28674203490.0614682122

0.96981085390.9348790770.93803063860.7232107220.55218090050.63350078750.40923527970.37931840310.5569245140.29159733780.077987846

0.97042338380.93433947470.93081953530.73543384370.61603013850.65421220180.4138009050.43137053050.58520663110.17537134640.0460436562

0.96976854970.93764648440.93141246480.77771864810.65474594090.66690959980.43566775240.49551034830.79981163170.16001549790.1097127223

0.96800901940.93979455110.9337881220.7937190830.70571932890.71490241080.43551648350.53591505310.81834234390.21541038530.1109271523

0.9829767690.93945439740.93590451290.83255615060.74582415650.72251670180.45012237630.52625271520.83777663920.28219042920.1184088807

0.98313785640.93968673720.92389131440.8606512850.75732889340.73148186990.43405743110.5210709410.85555182150.32758304280.1433386201

0.9834053560.94210791410.89371314030.84711128260.76736065290.71380507620.43610962370.52612666870.85476802080.37348401320.1588921283

0.98328556280.95599850650.88059252080.8526988950.77440807640.71514181390.45449500550.43305141830.86893846560.47925966250.158833566

0.98428275250.96314948690.87920310170.85598841990.79713361460.72653277890.40463113640.45404110710.88795978430.46485042740.1893132031

0.98519390930.96341961510.90855058950.86979257810.8112203010.74520870930.42126894430.55335456690.89765609370.48015597920.2725608898

0.98569326670.96206918960.90872859560.86318989510.81274393460.7616603180.47941068330.58307578390.896983583720002000

Source: ADB, Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries, 2001/1993; IMF, International Financial Statistics Yearbook 1990. For Japan, Japan Statistical Yearbook 2002/1999, Statistics Bureau/Statistical Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications, Japan.

Japan

Taiwan

Korea

Singapore

Malaysia

Thailand

Philippines

Indonesia

China

Vietnam

Myanmar

Manufactured Exports(% of total exports)

Structural Transformation in East Asia

Japan

NIEs

ASEAN4

Latecomers

Latestcomers

Country

Time

Garment

Steel

Popular TV

Video

Digital Camera

1

3

2

sin

157695871607356146165

183576634907057114660

4009816879218271685910231

10453935527413973347716812

11140434097456113635619468

&A

- &P -

East Asia

Japan

North America

Europe

Others

Singapore

hkg

134476051836185931772

2479381271303083432116

796261794928346255064772

19221439198565854842113059

20140138753576925035013529

&A

- &P -

East Asia

Japan

North America

Europe

Others

Hong Kong

tai

519274741239248133649

717284732370153633778

283562393737964199296179

724474318052687305919679

7461940804525233076410543

&A

- &P -

East Asia

Japan

North America

Europe

Others

Taiwan

kor

380988971023846665827

6534121031920666376150

169743121239589194299927

6194749685589683426426552

7061147398589893716631867

&A

- &P -

East Asia

Japan

North America

Europe

Others

Korea

mal

64805429393142111991

94016617409843181750

21098115611044494743079

538073037828983233097084

623062972027408228308165

&A

- &P -

East Asia

Japan

North America

Europe

Others

Malaysia

tha

34412934231132871634

39853401265530341089

12948141139518112843530

353103110219677205167564

358932982220410200867343

&A

- &P -

East Asia

Japan

North America

Europe

Others

Thailand

phi

21873191368920481378

2613162431121217750

47764019595030991971

1238290431191061933598

13196105841366563664376

&A

- &P -

East Asia

Japan

North America

Europe

Others

Philippines

ind

591214206583730301972

519411238600531791833

1138916378643277302873

234992221112193146316091

271172138913009167687848

&A

- &P -

East Asia

Japan

North America

Europe

Others

Indonesia

chi

67639201576758871749

1584221269891892583091

518071686613832155423544

9875057473450814077716056

9993660078470853998018952

&A

- &P -

East Asia

Japan

North America

Europe

Others

China

vie

1521631271124

15617418637

1454509845580

7527248255124691309

83042966109835501289

&A

- &P -

East Asia

Japan

North America

Europe

Others

Vietnam

jap

65313636782973750701

761481021443477346071

14850915926610030355017

30462321463612144272639

30046720832211406071438

&A

- &P -

East Asia

North America

Europe

Others

Japan

asia

6315263417586004242026261

9404779660897964714625254

26852615342317391012930746186

662422320279328032254648107804

704787315611337490264216123380

East Asia

Japan

N. America

Europe

Others

East Asia's Trading Partners

data

SingaporeHong KongTaiwanKoreaMalaysiaThailandPhilippinesIndonesiaChinaVientamJapanEast Asia

198019851990199519961980198519901995199619801985199019951996198019851990199519961980198519901995199619801985199019951996198019851990199519961980198519901995199619801985199019951996198019851990199519961980198519901995199619801985199019951996

East Asia1576918357400981045391114041344724793796261922142014015192717228356724477461938096534169746194770611648094012109853807623063441398512948353103589321872613477612382131965912519411389234992711767631584251807987509993615215614547527830465313761481485093046233004676315294047268526662422704787

Japan5871663416879355273409760518127179493919838753747484732393743180408048897121033121249685473985429661711561303782972029343401141133110229822319116244019904310584142061123816378222112138992012126916866574736007816317450924822966000006341779660153423320279315611

N. America607390702182741397456118361130302834656585576921239223701379645268752523102381920639589589685898939314098104442898327408231126559518196772041036893112595011910136655837600564321219313009576789181383245081470851185511098636781021441592662146362083225860089796173910328032337490

Europe5614571116859334773635685938343255064842150350481353631992930591307644666663719429342643716642114318947423309228303287303411284205162008620481217309961936366303031797730146311676858879258155424077739980271864552469355029737347731003031214421140604242047146129307254648264216

Others6165466010231168121946817722116477213059135293649377861799679105435827615099272655231867199117503079708481651634108935307564734313787501971359843761972183328736091784817493091354416056189521243780130912895070146071550177263971438262612525446186107804123380

25385033590377135216731851745484

East Asia0.24877683670.2799826140.34812381380.39590481630.403777405

Japan0.24982076030.23715179680.19890140950.19141876120.1808157508

N. America0.23084498720.26732717480.2254612680.19605243890.193350383

Europe0.1671065590.14035599560.16763682470.15219357090.1513711956

Others0.10345085680.07518241870.05987668410.06443041270.0706852655

&A

- &P -

Sheet4

&A

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Sheet5

&A

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Sheet6

&A

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Sheet7

&A

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Sheet8

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Sheet9

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Sheet10

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Sheet11

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Sheet12

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Sheet16

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Foreign Direct Investment Flows(Billions of USD / year)[1st Half of 1990s][2nd Half of 1990s]1.32.42.24.87.89.81.32.44.38.78.511.52.6Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, White Paper on International Trade 2002, p12.Note: Flows less than $1 billion are not shown. The NIEs to China flow excludes Hong Kong.

18.67.25.0Trade in Machine Parts(Billions of USD / year)[1990][1998]6.929.96.815.321.75.519.27.68.5Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, White Paper on International Trade 2001, p12.Note: Flows less than $5 billion are not shown.

Poverty Reduction in East AsiaExtreme poverty in E Asia already halved(1990: 27.6% 1999: 14.2%)National strategy for equitable growth in place (even before PRSP/MDGs)Aid coordination centered on pro-poor measures is unlikely to work in East Asia

Redefining Good Governance and SelectivityTo initiate trade-driven growth, different and narrower conditions are needed--Strong leader(ship) with ownership--Strong administration for policy consistency and effective implementationHigh-performing East Asia did not have--Transparency, accountability, participatory process, clean government, privatization, free trade (maybe not necessary for initiating growth?)

(3) Aid harmonizationHarmonize aid practice to reduce transaction costs!?Japan gives only conditional supportYes we recognize the value of coordination BUT--Dont impose uniform modality (non-project aid) on all countries and sectors--Dont deny or discredit ODA loansJapan reacts strongly to harmonization hardliners, but accepts its milder form

Best Mix ApproachNonfungibility of ideas & strategy--Multiple options for different countriesInseparability of money and ideasDonors according to their comparative advantageHarmonization for aid implementation?--Policy & institution also key to effective development--Need to also discuss contents of growth strategies

Regional (VN) & Global (Rome) Forums on HarmonizationJapan intervenes to relativize harmonization:Ensure partner country ownershipAdopt country-based approachEnsure diversity of aid modalitiesCost-benefit analysis of harmonization is necessary

Diversity in Strategy Formulation & ImplementationStrategy AStrategy BStrategy C ...

ProjectsNon ProjectsPooled TANon Pooled TAAdoptionStrategy Formulation:Choosing from Alternative Strategic OptionsImplementation:Diverse Modality under Common FrameworkJointly with Client Country

Matching Aid Modality with Needs

Non Project AidProject AidRecurrent-exp. intensive (esp. social sector)Investment-exp. intensive (esp. infrastructure)Policy ReformPilot innovation(requiring trial-and-error)

Matching Technical Assistance Modality with Needs

Pooled TANon Pooled TATransfer of universal skill and knowledge(established best practice)Transfer of tailor-made skill and knowledge(choosing from alternative models)

Japan Also Needs to ChangeTake advantage of harmonization to:Enhance dialogue with other donorsEnd unnecessarily rigid proceduresReduce high grant cost greater use of local human resourcesDelegate authority to field offices, and strengthen their capacity

(4) Japans Engagement PrinciplesJapans Uneasiness:The gap between current strategy and E Asian development experience--Due to cultural and historical differencesInability to clearly articulate Japans aid goals: unspoken ideas, systemic rigidity, language barrier

ODA budget is declining (-5.8% in FY03) while EU and US are increasing aidUncomfortable with aggressive aid harmonization (budget support, SWAPs...)Fear that Japans aid will be discredited or marginalized (though still large)

Japans Approach to ODATwo-track principle(1) For the prosperity of Japan and East Asia(2) For solving global issues (poverty, education, health, environment, refugees, peace building...)Helping the self-help effort of LDCs--Aid is not humanitarian charity--To grow and become equal trading partners--Not for all LDCs; but we encourage eligible countries to try

Japans Approach (contd.)Respect for each countrys uniqueness Long-term and holistic perspectiveTacit knowledge, shared experience (rather than explicit rules/matrices and quantified targets)Real-sector concern (trade, investment, key industries, technology...)Help in good times as well as bad

Growth Contents DifferWest: privatization, free trade, rule of law, clean & transparent government, level playing field, market comes first...Japan: active government, national dev. vision, proper design of industrial, trade, FDI policy, sector/industry specific intervention...Common: political & macro stability, HRD, SME support, environment, HIV... Back to the 1980s? (unresolved issue)

New ODA CharterNew ODA charter by Fall 2003?--with inputs from LDP (ruling party), ODA Comprehensive Strategy Council, NGOs, general public, etc.Likely to feature:--Two-track principle (for Japan and for world)--From request-based to multiple policy dialogue--Human security, peace building, MDGs--Country Assistance Plans (clearer goals & strategy)--Strengthening transparency, evaluation, popular participation

New Country Strategy Plan for VietnamNow Short Draft, final draft Sep. 2003Clarifying national interest--Vietnams role in Japans China-ASEAN diplomacy & economic ties--Humanitarian and social needs--Vietnam as Japans ODA model countryVietnam at crossroads--Soar and join the geese or stagnate? (need to dramatically improve FDI policy)

Vietnam (contd.)ODA for growth, social needs, and institution building (targeted areas, subsectors, etc. to be clarified by September)Quantitative direction linked (loosely) to policy performance and absorptive capacity

Strategies for Sri Lanka, Mongolia, Indonesia, Pakistan, India also under review

What Japan Should DoJapan should be fully engaged in global aid strategy, not isolation or rejectionJapan should bring a new perspective as a non-West industrialized countryTo do so, Japan should clearly define its aid goals and comparative advantageLeadership, networking, and institutional reform are needed

Japan as Aid Partner--Japan is a clumsy speaker--Japan is very sensitive to what others say about its policy (fear of isolation)Understand, and even respect, Japans vision while noting mutual differences (praise works better than criticism)Help it voice its views (when possible)Dont tread on its sensitive spot

Japan-DfID Partnership?Potentially very fruitful:Complementarity because we are different in aid goals, modality East Asia: Japan has money, but needs intellectual partnerInfrastructure as entry point--Start with joint study on its growth/poverty impact--Cooperation in social sectors also?

Foreign Direct Investment Flows

Pro-poor Growth and Aid Coordination from the Japanese Perspective Kenichi Ohno National Graduate...

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