Private!Capital!Conference! January!22,!2016! JW!MarrioI,!Galleria … · 2019. 9. 29. · OECD...

© 2016 Amegy Bank, a division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC

Private Capital Conference January 22, 2016

JW MarrioI, Galleria Houston, TX


Legal Disclaimer

2

This presentaPon contains statements that relate to the projected or modeled performance or condiPon of Zions BancorporaPon and elements of or affecPng such performance or condiPon, including statements with respect to forecasts, opportuniPes, models, illustraPons, scenarios, beliefs, plans, objecPves, goals, guidance, expectaPons, anPcipaPons or esPmates, and similar maIers. These statements consPtute forward-‐looking informaPon within the meaning of the Private SecuriPes LiPgaPon Reform Act. Actual facts, determinaPons, results or achievements may differ materially from the statements provided in this presentaPon since such statements involve significant known and unknown risks and uncertainPes. Factors that might cause such differences include, but are not limited to: compePPve pressures among financial insPtuPons; economic, market and business condiPons, either naPonally, internaPonally, or locally in areas in which Zions BancorporaPon conducts its operaPons, being less favorable than expected; changes in the interest rate environment reducing expected interest margins; changes in debt, equity and securiPes markets including but not limited to the ability to successfully tender for preferred equity; adverse legislaPon or regulatory changes; Federal Reserve reviews of our annual capital plan; and other factors described in Zions BancorporaPon’s most recent annual and quarterly reports. In addiPon, the statements contained in this presentaPon are based on facts and circumstances as understood by management of the company on the date of this presentaPon, which may change in the future. Except as required by law, Zions BancorporaPon disclaims any obligaPon to update any statements or to publicly announce the result of any revisions to any of the forward-‐looking statements included herein to reflect future events, developments, determinaPons or understandings. While the informaPon reflected herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, we make no representaPon as to its accuracy or adequacy.


Amegy Price Deck


World Liquid Fuels ProducPon

Forecast

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1 2017-Q1

World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance million barrels per day (MMb/d)

Implied stock change and balance (right axis)

World production (left axis)

World consumption (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2016.

MMb/d


OECD Supply

5

Forecast

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017

OECD Commercial Stocks of Crude Oil and Other Liquids (days of supply)


Note: Colored band around days of supply of crude oil and other liquids stocks represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2011 - Dec. 2015.


World Petroleum ProducPon 2014


World Petroleum ProducPon 2015


World Petroleum ConsumpPon

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2015 2016 2017

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth million barrels per day

OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union Other


* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Forecast


Energy Porbolio Loan ComposiPon

9

Outstandings $2.3 Billion

Commitments $4.2 Billion

12/31/15


Energy Porbolio by Risk Grade

10


Energy in the 80’s vs. Today

11

80’s •  No NYMEX Hedging (oil 1983, natural gas 1990) •  No energy-‐focused private equity •  Limited use of junior debt capital •  Tax Reform Act of 1986 (AMT) hurt real estate market •  Energy banks concentrated in Texas •  OPEC surplus producPon capacity 12mmbbls/day vs. 60 mmbbls/day total demand •  Rock band U2

Today •  NYMEX hedging and very acPve OTC trading desks •  Energy-‐focused private equity investments >$2 trillion •  Extensive use of junior debt capital •  Other parts of the economy, including real estate, are okay •  Energy banks diversified naPonally •  OPEC surplus producPon capacity <2mmbbls/day vs. 94 mmbbls/day total demand •  JusPn Bieber



12


Today •  NYMEX hedging and very acPve OTC trading desks •  Energy-‐focused private equity investments >$300 billion since 2004 •  Extensive use of junior debt capital •  Other parts of the economy, including real estate, are okay •  Energy banks diversified naPonally •  OPEC surplus producPon capacity <2mmbbls/day vs. 94 mmbbls/day total demand •  JusPn Bieber



13





14

80’s •  No NYMEX Hedging (oil 1983, natural gas 1990) •  No energy-‐focused private equity •  Limited use of junior debt capital •  Tax Reform Act of 1986 hurt the real estate market •  Energy banks concentrated in Texas •  OPEC surplus producPon capacity 12mmbbls/day vs. 60 mmbbls/day total demand •  Rock band U2




15




Bank Energy Exposure

16

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

MidSouth

BOK Financial

Cullen/Frost

Green

Bancorp

Hancock

LegacyTexas Financial

Comerica

Zion

s

Texas Capital

Inde

pend

ent B

ank Group

IBER

IABA

NK

Prospe

rity

Associated

CIT Group

Region

s

CiPg

roup

Bank of N

ova ScoP

a

First F

inancial

SouthSide Ba

ncshares

Bank of A

merica

Cullen Frost

Canadian Im

perial Bank

KeyCorp

Bank of M

ontreal

SunTrust

Wells Fargo

JPMorgan

Fiph Third

Royal Bank of Canada

Capital O

ne

First N

iagara

US Ba

nk

PNC

PacW

est

BB&T

Toronto-‐Dom

inion

Bank Energy Exposure as % of Total Loans



17




OPEC ProducPon

18

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity million barrels per day


Note: Shaded area represents 2005-2015 average (2.2 million barrels per day).

Forecast



19



Private!Capital!Conference! January!22,!2016! JW!MarrioI,!Galleria … · 2019. 9. 29. · OECD...

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Transcript of Private!Capital!Conference! January!22,!2016! JW!MarrioI,!Galleria … · 2019. 9. 29. · OECD...