PRESENTATION MATERIAL

Priority Hydro Power Projects Suggested for Construction Under

China – Pakistan Economic Corridor

By

Riaz Nazir Tarar

Dr. Izhar-ul-Haq

Muhammad Jabbar

Islamabad March 29, 2017

CPEC Seminar Opportunities and Challenges

S-1

MEDIUM TERM ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND

GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN FORM 2017-2015

2 2016-17 25,000 25092 b) 3,870 147 4

3 2017-18 27,000 31,807 6,715 2,378 35

Tarbela 4th

Extension &

Neelum Jehlum

2,378

4 2018-19 29,000 33,656 1,849

5 2019-20 31,000 39,778 6,122 230 4 Keyal Khwar 128

6 2020-21 34,000 45,098 5,620 1,410 27 Tarbela Fifth

Extension 1,410

7 2021-22 37,000 48,218 3,120 720 23 Karot 720

8 2022-23 40,000 53,568 5,350 3,030 57 Dasu Phase-I

& Suki Kinari 3,030

9 2023-24 43,000 61,234 7,666 2,136 28

10 2024-25 46,000 70,235 9,001 2,250 25 Diamer Basha

(Phase-I) 2,250

Total 49,313 12,301 25 9,916

Share of Public Sector

Hydro

% Projects

Aggregate

Capacity

(MW)

Proposed

Installed

Capacity (MW)

Projected

Peak Demand

(MW) a)

2015-16

Sr.

No.Total Hydro

Fiscal YearProposed Addition

(MW)

a. At annual compound growth of 8%

b. Starting from installed capacity of 22,802 MW in 2015-16

S-2

IDENTIFIED HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL OF UPPER INDUS

AND JHELUM RIVER BASINS

Sr.

No. River / Tributary

Identified Capacity

(MW) Development Mode

1. Indus River and Tributaries

Indus Main 40,700 A combination of storage and run-or-river (RoR)

facilities particularly through Shyok Dam Project, Bunji

Hydropower Project, Diamer Basha Dam Project and

three cascade projects of Dasu, Pattan, Thakot and

Kalabag Dam

Tributaries 8,900 RoR

Sub-total (1) 49,600

2. Jhelum and Tributaries

Jhelum River 5,300 RoR except 1000 MW at Mangla Dam

Tributaries 1,900 RoR

Sub-total (2) 7,200

3. Total (1+2) 56,800

S-3

S-4

SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF HYDROPOWER

POTENTIAL ON INDUS MAIN

S-5

INITIALLY IDENTIFIED HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL ON INDUS MAIN

(MONENCO’S RANKING STUDY, 1982)

Sr.

No.

Scheme Identified Development

Potential

(MW)

Current Engineering Status

River Site

1. Indus Basha 3,360 Since enhanced to 4500 MW based on subsequent

studies / engineering design of Diamer Basha Dam

Project

2. Indus Tungus 1,300 Since enhanced to 2200 MW based on Pre-

feasibility Study

3. Indus Yulbo 1,500 Since enhanced to 2800 MW based on Pre-

feasibility Study

4. Indus Bunji 2,900 Since enhanced to 7100 MW based on Feasibility

Study combining the two sites 5. Indus Rakhiot (Raikot) 2,700

6. Indus Dasu 5,500 Already engineered for 4320 MW with Stage-I of

2460 MW under implementation

7. Indus High Thakot 2,400 Since bifurcated into Pattan & Thakot; Feasibility for

2380 MW at Pattan already completed; and

Feasibility Study of Thakot in hand through three

sub-cascades to develop 3900 MW.

Total 19,660 27,200

S-6

S-7

S-8

CASCADING EFFECT OF DIAMER BASHA DAM PROJECT ON

DOWNSTREAM HYDROPOWER PROJECTS

Sr.

No. Location

Installed

Capacity

(MW)

Status

Cascading Effect of

Annual Additional

Generation (GWh)

Remarks

I. Existing Projects

1. Tarbela 3478

In operation

1300

With enhancement of installed

capacity to 6298 MW through 4th and

5th extensions, additional generation

between 15-20% may become

possible

1100 2. Ghazi-Barotha 1450

3. Jinnah 96

40

Estimated @ 10% of annual

generation with 50% plant factor

4. Chashma 184 80

5. Sub-Total I (1 to 4) 5208 2520

II. Upcoming Projects

1. Dasu 4320 Under Two

Stage

Implementation

5400 At about 25% of estimated total

annual generation of 21500 GWh

2. Pattan 2380 Feasibility

Completed

1900 Based on 2015 Feasibility Study

3. Thahkot 3900 Feasibility in

hand

3200 15% of estimated total annual

generation of 21,300 GWh

4. Sub-Total II (1 to 3) 10,600 10500

III. Total Cascading Effect of Diamer

Basha Dam Project (I + II)

15,808 13,020 Over 70% of annual at site

generation of 18100 GWh

S-9

COMPARATIVE GENERATION COSTS FOR VARIOUS

MODES

Sr.

No. Generation Mode

Generation Cost

(US ¢ents / kWh) Remarks

1. Hydropower

i. Multipurpose DBDP 7.6 Considering cascading effect on

downstream Projects, it will reduce to 4.4

US ¢ents / kWh

ii. Run-of-River 5.2 Pattan Hydropower Project of Indus

Cascade

2. Thermal

i. Natural Gas 7.7

According JICA Report, October 2015

ii. Coal (Imported) 10.4

iii. Liquefied Natural Gas 11.8

iv. Furnace Oil 16.7

3. Nuclear 13.0

4. Other Renewables: -

i. Solar 14.0

Approximate upfront tariffs of NEPRA ii. Wind 12.0

i. Biomass 10.0

S-10

CONCLUSIONS

i. Medium term peak electricity demand is conservatively projected to enhance from 25000 MW (2017)

to 68000 MW (2030) showing an increase of about 270%. Even by the year 2025, it will gross to 46000

MW showing an increase of about 84%.

ii. Coping strategy with this demand under National Power Policy 2013 envisages developments, both

under public / private sectors, through the modes of: thermal hydropower; nuclear; solar; wind; and

bio-mass.

iii. Out of the proposed additional generation of over 49000 MW till 2024-25, share of hydro is 12300 MW

constituting only 25%. Further, basic emphasis is on hydropower generation through run-of-river

mode.

iv. Under CPEC, a capacity of 10400 MW is going to be added over the next few years. However, this

includes only two run-of-river hydropower projects aggregating to 1590 MW.

v. Two stage implementation of DBDP with an installed capacity of 4500 MW is now contemplated over a

period of 10 years.

vi. Fifty percent DHP capacity (2160 MW) is now being developed as run-of-river facility through Stage I

spanning over 6 years. Balance capacity will be developed under Stage II.

vii. Feasibility Study of Pattan Hydropower Project with installed capacity of 2385 MW has been

completed in 2015.

viii. Feasibility Study of Thakot Hydropower Project with development capability of 3900 MW is now in

hand.

ix. Conditions are now ripe for sizeable hydropower development through the cascade of DBDP and

downstream Dasu, Pattan and Thakot Projects.

x. This cascade development will enable harnessing over 15000 MW hydropower potential of Indus Main

with aggregate annual energy generation of 73,400 GWh. Out of this, about 13000 GWh will be due to

cascading effect of DBDP comprising: 2520 GWh on existing project’s; and 10500 GWh on the

upcoming projects (refer Table 4).

xi. This cascade hydropower development will provide cheap energy varying between 3.6 to 5.2 US

¢ents / kWh against thermal and other renewable options ranging between US ¢ents 8 to 17.

S-11

RECOMMENDATIONS

Now, when Diamer Basha Dam and Dasu Hydropower Projects are being taken

up through staged development, it is recommended that, to meet the medium

term electricity demand through 2030, maximum effort be made to significantly

enhance hydropower portfolio of CPEC. This should at least include: -

i. Second stage developments of both Diamer Basha Dam and Dasu

Hydropower Projects

ii. Downstream cascade Pattan and Thakot Hydropower Projects.