J O U R N A L O F E S E C S H O R T P A P E R S

Editorial

Editorial 2008 F. Verrecchia

Articles

Statistical Methods for Market Researches: the Flexible Segmentation P. M. Chiodini

Methods and Techniques for Quali-Quantitative Analyses: an Agricultural Application M. G. Eboli

Woman Entrepreneurs and the Credit Market in Italy D. Coin, M. Romeo

The Generalised Index Numbers F. Verrecchia

Referee’s Short Notes

Short Notes on: “The Generalised Index Numbers” B. M. Balk

Author’s Reply F. Verrecchia

ESeC web site: www.economicstatistics.eu

Editor

Co-Editors

F. Verrecchia

2008 - Ι . Ι

JE SP

G. C. Blangiardo A. Cepparulo P. M. Chiodini E. Koch-Weser

Print edition - ISSN 1974-9422Online edition - ISSN 1974-9430

ESeC

I N T E R N A T I O N A L J O U R N A L O F E C O N O M I C S , S T A T I S T I C S A N D S O C I A L S C I E N C E M E T H O D S A N D A P P L I C A T I O N S

Editorial Board D. Coin J. Krishnakumar A. Lemelin G. Manzi B. Sena

J O U R N A L O F E S E C S H O R T P A P E R S

Editor Flavio Verrecchia ESeC (Economic Statistics no-profit Association) Via Matteotti, 15/A - 20090 Assago (MI) Italy e-mail: flavio.verrecchia@gmail.com

Co-Editors Gian Carlo Blangiardo, University of Milano - Bicocca, Italy Alessandra Cepparulo, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy Paola Maddalena Chiodini, University of Milano - Bicocca, Italy Elke Koch-Weser, European Ph.D. in Socio-Economic and Statistical Studies

Editorial Board Daniele Coin, Bank of Italy, Rome, Italy Jaya Krishnakumar, University of Geneva, Switzerland André Lemelin, Université du Québec - INRS-UCS, Montréal, QC, Canada Giancarlo Manzi, MRC-Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK Barbara Sena, University “St. Thomas”, Rome, Italy

ESeC Scientific Committee Gian Carlo Blangiardo, University of Milano - Bicocca, Italy Paola Maddalena Chiodini, University of Milano - Bicocca, Italy Daniele Coin, Bank of Italy, Rome, Italy Giancarlo Manzi, MRC-Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK Barbara Sena, University “St. Thomas”, Rome, Italy Flavio Verrecchia, ESeC, Assago MI, Italy (Coordinator)

JE SP

JESP Aims JESP is an international journal aiming to promote the development of methods and applications in economics, statistics and social science. The journal overcomes the linguistic barriers offering title and abstract in three languages, keywords and paragraph titles in English. JESP is culturally open. The author is free to choose the language to be used in text. “Shorts” does not mean “easy”, on the contrary the format of JESP, three languages and 2 pages with two columns each, constrains the authors to a “weighted synthesis”. MARTA’s corner (MARTA - Methods and Approaches for Research and Teaching Applications), finally, is the corner where it is possible to find solutions of practical problems. Researchers will be able to learn how to use techniques for the management, analysis and synthesis of data.

Instructions for Authors online www.economicstatistics.eu/jesp

Subscription information ISSN 1974-9422 (print edition) ISSN 1974-9430 (electronic edition) Volume 1 (2 issues) will appear in 2008.

JESP Staff N. Pafundi, Editorial Director C. Pellegrino, Text Coordinator (Italian) N. Creuso, Text Coordinator (French) A. Ligonzo (ESeC Founder), Art Director S. Facchinetti, Statistician

IN T E R N A T I O N A L JO U R N A L O F ECONOMICS, ST A T I S T I C S AND SO C I A L SC IE N C E METHODS AND APPL ICAT IONS

In collaboration with Patronage

Orders e-mail: mail@economicstatistics.eu

Abstracted / Indexed in IDEAS (USA), EconPapers (Sweden), Socionet (Russia), RePEc (USA)

Ownership and Copyright © ESeC – Economic Statistics e-Center (no-profit Association) ESeC is a RoMEO green publisher

Journal of ESeC Short Papers (2008) 1: 5-6 DOI 10.3257/ISSN1974-9422.1.1.5

___________________________________________________________________________ M.G. Eboli, Department of Public Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy

mariella.eboli@uniroma1.it ESeC

ORIGINAL ARTICLE Methods and Techniques for Quali-Quantitative Analyses: an Agricultural Application

Metodi e tecniche per analisi quali-quantitative: una applicazione in ambito agricolo

Méthodes et techniques d'analyse quali-quantitative: une application en agriculture

Maria Giuseppina Eboli © ESeC 2008 - Accepted: July 21, 2008 - Published online: July 24, 2008 Abstract. This paper describes a dynamic systems model which links the private and public functions of agriculture with the territorial development of rural regions and quality of life of rural residents. Among the key results are the quantification of a set of economic, social and environmental outcomes which follow from a set of EU policy scenarios for the period 2013.

Abstract. L’articolo descrive un modello dinamico di sistema che lega le funzioni private e pubbliche dell’agricoltura con lo sviluppo territoriale delle regioni rurali e con la qualità della vita dei residenti. Tra i risultati principali vi è la quantificazione degli effetti economici, sociali e ambientali generati da un insieme di scenari di politiche comunitarie per il 2013.

Abstract. L’article décrit un modèle dynamique de système qui lie les fonctions privées et publiques de l'agriculture avec le développement territorial des régions rurales et avec la qualité de la vie des résidants. Parmi les résultats principaux on a la quantification des effets sociaux, environnementaux et économiques générés par un ensemble de scénarios de politiques pour le 2013.

Keywords: POMMARD, Dynamic Systems Model, Multifunctional Agriculture, Rural Development, Quality of Life, Policies. JELclassification: Q18, R1, R58. 1. Introduction TOP-MARD1 is the acronym of a research project that links farmers’ behaviour with their economic, social, environmental effects on a territory, showing the difference between a behaviour only guided by market profitability and one guided by the interest of a broader collectivity. The TOP-MARD research defined a 10-modules model (POMMARD), that links use of land and production techniques to several dimensions of a context (quantitative and qualitative, from economic to social and environmental) and to the quality of life of its population. In fact, agriculture performs, together with its principal task of producing food and other marketable goods, several other social, environmental and cultural functions: it could help mantain social cohesion, and a better relationship with labor market, through the predominance of indipendent jobs, often perceived as characterized by a peculiar life style; it can have a positive role on soil, water, air, or, on the contrary, it can damage them in a pervasive and diffused way, difficult to trace and prevent; it can protect (or destroy) biodiversity; it can help transmit traditional practices and life styles to younger generations; it can provide curing activities for disabled or disturbed people, thanks to the closeness to nature; it can shape landscape, contributing to a pleasant visual context that can benefit other economic operators, or increase beauty and wellbeing.

2. Methodological Approach and Applications STELLA, a Systems Thinking software, has been used in order to develop the model POMMARD. The specific features of this software are: its ability to trace links between variables pertaining to different phenomena; to model non-linearity; to accomodate qualitative and quantitative variables; to identify dynamics; to operate on relatively few data; to be relatively user-friendly and apt to integrate data from different disciplines. The model POMMARD (Figure 1.) is partially supply-driven: land use and its dynamics produce a mix of marketable and non-marketable goods, that impact other sectors and the territory through an I-O or a SAM, and through the consequences of their production on the quality of life. Labor requirements and demography can produce – therefore – immigration, and contribute to job creation and dynamics. Public intervention influences local resources and human behaviour. Farmers can choose to follow a conventional style of production, mainly driven by intensification and technological improvement. Or they can choose to minimize costs through a better use of internal resources, among them a better care of soil; or choose a style of production that also benefits environment, landscape and consumers, through better quality, shorter chain, provision of additional services. Styles of production and land use are the “key drivers” of a change: when land is converted from a land use

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to another or from a conventional to a non-conventional style of production, there occurs a change in the vector of inputs (means of production and workers) and in the vector of outputs, that also comprehends public goods, expressed by eleven non-commodities: among them, cultural heterogeneity, biodiversity, N-balance, Carbon balance, water quality, landscape change. Provision of public goods increases quality of life, read as a change in any of five types of capital: material, natural, human, social and cultural. The territory becomes therefore more attractive to younger generations, encouraging them to stay rather than migrate, and attracting new-comers. Tourism can also be influenced by attractiveness of the area, that can be converted into an increasing income, under the constraint of tourism capacity and seasonality. The model comprehends ten modules, some of them standing alone: Demographics, Region, Agriculture, with Land Use and Non-commodities, Quality of Life. The model can be run checking the endogenous development of the main macro-economic variables, under the hypothesis of no external change in starting conditions. These results can be compared with different scenarios led by macro-economic dynamics, as for energy prices, or by policy interventions, as changes in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Results and projection up to 25 years are provided both in tabular and graphic format. Figure 1. The POMMARD Modules

Notes: 1. Initial Conditions; 2. Policy Controls; 3. Output Indicators; 4. Land; 5. Agriculture; 6. Region; 7. Non-Commodities; 8. Quality of Life; 9. Human Resources; 10. Tourism.

3. Discussion and Conclusion Different practices and land uses produce a mix of effects: some can benefit their producers; some can increase the value of a context in a marketable way, leading to benefits to other economic agents; some can prevent losses and damages, sometimes also in distant areas, as for activities that prevent erosion, flood and other catastophic events; some can only affect quality of life, increasing therefore the attractiveness of an area and the well-being of its citizens and visitors. There is a recent shift of policy measures toward conditionality, i.e. conditioning subsidies to “good practices”. On the other hand, there is a growing attention of consumers towards ethics of production. This project led to an extremely powerful and flexible model, that can help policy makers in designing the new policy with a close adherence to territorial features, comparing the effects stemming from the different measures at a very concrete level. It can also increase producers’ and consumers’ awareness on the effects of their behaviour, and help them in their decision making process. This model has been implemented in the ten selected areas by each of the teams participating in the project. Among them, the Italian area is the province of Latina, a NUTS3 area. The choice of the area has been conditioned by data availability and data provision by their producers and collectors. This might turn out to be a crucial point of weakness of the model. This research suggests therefore that in order to face and meet the new challenges that social and environmental problems present to all of us, and to increase wellbeing, a new pact should link producers, consumers, politicians and administrators, together with data producers, toward a better analytical reading of reality that could enhance theoretical complexity and avoid unrealistic hypotheses. References

J. Bryden (2008) A Policy Model of Multifunctional Agriculture and Rural Development: The Final Scientific Report of the TOP-MARD Framework 6 STREP Project.

M.G. Eboli, M.C. Macrì (2008), “Beni pubblici e produzione di esternalità positive: le tendenze innovative nelle politiche agricole europee” in G. Burgio, M. Capparucci, G. Sancetta, E. Todisco, (eds.) Welfare, Coesione Sociale e Sostenibilità nella Unione Europea: Modelli Socioeconomici a confronto, Sapienza editrice, Roma.

Isee systems (2008), Stella. Software. [Online]. Available: http://www.iseesystems.com

T.G. Johnson (2008), The Policy Model for Multifunctional Agriculture and Rural Development: User’s Manual 1.11. USA.

K. Thomson (2008), TOP-MARD Policy Scenarios, TOP-MARD - Towards a Policy Model of Multifunctional Agriculture and Rural Development, Final Conference, Brussels. [2008, May 7].

1 Research project TOP-MARD (Toward a Policy Model of Multifunctional

Agriculture and Rural Development) financed by EU, Specific Targeted Research Project (STREP) – Framework 6, SSP Priority Topic 8.1 - Policy Oriented Research (FPP-2002-SSP-1), contract n. 501749.

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