Prince William Chamber of Commerce October 13, 2011 What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the...
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Prince William Chamber of Commerce October 13, 2011 What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the Outlook for the Economy’s Future Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University
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Transcript of Prince William Chamber of Commerce October 13, 2011 What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the...
Prince William Chamber of Commerce
October 13, 2011
What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the Outlook for the Economy’s Future
Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy
George Mason University
Quarters After Trough
% C
ha
ng
e in
GD
P
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Five Recessions
Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
Quarterly GDPJuly 2011 Series Revisions vs. Original
>> FORECAST > > >
Data through to Q2 2011 are original and revised from BEA.Estimates for Q3 2011 and beyond are from Global Insight, pre-July and post July BEA revisions
L.I.
C.I.
U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesNov 2006 – Aug 2011
RECESSION >
U.S. Leading Index
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - USTHOUSANDS
Sep =+ 1.46 M
Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA
U.S. Job Change by SectorSept 2010 – Sept 2011
(000s) Total = 1,490
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Ranked by Size in 2010
U.S. Job Change by SectorAug 2011 – Sept 2011
(000s) Total = 103
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Ranked by Size in 2010
Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average
414
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
Aug = 9.1
%
GI FCST11 – 9.112 – 9.113 – 8.814 – 8.115 – 7.316 – 6.8
Consumer Prices2001 - 2015
Forecast > > > > > >%
Source: BLS, Global Insight
Interest Rates2001 - 2015
Forecast > > > > > >
Consumer Confidence
100
Present Situation
Expectations
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Housing TrendsNew & Existing Home Sales
Existing(left scale)
New
(Right Scale)
(000s) (000s)
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Forecast > > > > >
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2013
% Forecast > > > > > >
Economic Trends In The
Washington Metropolitan Area
15 Largest Metro Areas2010 GRP
($ Bil
Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Metro AreasGRP Percent Change 2007-10
%
Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Share of Washington Area Economy
1970-2010
Northern Virginia
Suburban MD
D.C.% o
f G
RP
Population in the Washington MSABy Sub-State Area, 1900 - 2010
1000s
Northern VA
D.C.
Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Suburban MD
Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-MonthMoving Average
Washington MSA Coincident Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-MonthMoving Average
Thousands
Annual Change in JobsWashington Metro Area
1991 - 2010
Avg. = 36,000
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorAug 2010 – Aug 2011
Washington MSA(000s) Total = 100
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorAug 2010 – Aug 2011
Northern Virginia(000s) Total + 600
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Aug 2010 – Aug 2011
(000s)
Washington +100
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
10.9 – DC
9.1 – U.S.
6.4 – SMD6.1 – MSA4.8 - NVA
Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate
August 2011%
US 9.1
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
6.1
Housing Market Trends
Existing Home SalesWashington MSA
Through September 2011
12-Month Moving Average
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year
LDN
PG
FFXARL
DCMONT
PW
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
$315,200 Sept 2011
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSA
All Housing Types%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2009 2010 2011
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia
All Housing Types%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2009 2010 2011
Washington MSABuilding Permits
2000 – 2011, 3-Month Mvg Avg
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis
Near-Term Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)%
DCSMMSANV
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
D.C. 10.1 -2.2 9.5 3.3 5.7 8.6 9.3 9.8
Sub. MD -3.3 -25.1 -5.9 4.6 7.5 11.3 14.1 16.2
No. VA 6.1 -23.0 8.7 15.7 17.1 19.6 21.5 22.1
REGION 12.9 -50.3 11.3 23.6 30.3 39.5 44.9 48.1
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8/26/11
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015
Washington
U.S.
cra.gmu.edu
