Primero mackie research presentation upload

31
The ‘New’ Americas Gold Play Mackie Research Capital Gold Conference 2010 October 2010 TSX:P

Transcript of Primero mackie research presentation upload

Page 1: Primero mackie research presentation upload

The ‘New’ Americas Gold Play Mackie Research Capital Gold Conference 2010 October 2010

TSX:P

Page 2: Primero mackie research presentation upload

TSX:P Cautionary Statement

2

This presentation may contain “forward-looking” statements within the meaning of Canadian securities legislation and the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements relate to future events or the anticipated performance of the Company and reflect management’s expectations or beliefs regarding such future events and anticipated performance. In certain cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “plans”, “expects”, “is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”, ”estimates”, ”forecasts”, ”intends”, ”anticipates” or “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results “may”, ”could”, “would”, ”might”, or “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”, or the negative of these words or comparable terminology. By their very nature forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual performance of the Company to be materially different from any anticipated performance expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Such factors include various risks related to the Company’s operations, including, without limitation, fluctuations in spot and forward markets for gold, silver and other metals, fluctuations in currency markets, changes in national and local governments in Mexico and the speculative nature of mineral exploration and development, risks associated with obtaining necessary exploitation and environmental licenses and permits, and the presence of laws that may impose restrictions on mining. A complete list of risk factors are described in the Company’s preliminary prospectus and will be detailed from time to time in the Company’s interim and annual financial statements and management’s discussion and analysis of those statements, all of which are, or will be available, for review on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. This presentation uses the terms “measured resources”, “indicated resources” and “inferred resources”. The Company advises readers that although these terms are recognized and required by Canadian regulations (under National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (“NI43-101”)), the United States Securities and Exchange Commission does not recognize them. Readers are cautioned not to assume that any part or all of the mineral deposits in these categories will ever be converted in to reserves. In addition, “inferred resources” have a great amount of uncertainty as to their existence, and economic and legal feasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an inferred mineral resource will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian rules, estimates of inferred mineral resources may not form the basis of feasibility or pre-feasibility studies, or economic studies, except for a Preliminary Assessment as defined under NI43-101. Investors are cautioned not to assume that part or all of an inferred resource exists, or is economically or legally mineable. Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual performance to differ materially from that described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause its performance not to be as anticipated. The Company neither intends nor assumes any obligation to update these forward-looking statements or information to reflect changes in assumptions or circumstances other than required by applicable law. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those currently anticipated. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Unless otherwise indicated, all dollar values herein are in US$.

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TSX:P Investment Highlights

3

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TSX:P

Strategy of Growth Acquisition Track Record

GROWTH

2010-2011: Optimization & resource expansion

2011-2012: Potential Latin American acquisitions

Leading mid-tier gold producer by 2013

LOW CASH COST

Below industry average cash costs

LOW RISK

Maintain balance sheet strength

Un-hedged gold

Americas pro-mining jurisdictions only

RESPONSIBILITY

Sustainable growth

Commitment to leading CSR programs

TARGETED GROWTH OBJECTIVE1

4 1. Production based on five year average, source NI 43-101 technical report

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2010 2011 2012 2013

SAN DIMAS OPTIMIZATION

LATIN AMERICAN ACQUISITIONS

LEADING MID-TIER GOLD PRODUCER

SAN DIMAS (GOLD EQUIVALENT OUNCES)

EXPLORATION OPTIMIZATION

ACQUISITIONS

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TSX:P Capital Structure

5

Cash ~$50 million

Debt $50 million1

Convertible note $60 million

Shares outstanding 88 million

Fully diluted 117 million

Warrants outstanding 22 million

Options outstanding 8 million (1) 5 year, 6% note repaid $5M/yr with balloon payment at end of year 5

0

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January February March April May June July August September

Volume (000) Price (C$)

June 2, 2010 Announced San Dimas

acquisition, Joe Conway

appointed CEO

Aug 6, 2010 Completion of

San Dimas acquisition

Jul 8, 2010 Announced revised Terms of offering and San Dimas acquisition

Aug 19, 2010 Commenced trading on TSX

Sep 20, 2010 Q3 Exploration

Update

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TSX:P

Financial Strength Sufficient Capital to Fund Growth

6

After Tax Cumulative Cash Balance1,3 ($M)

1. Includes Silver Wheaton contract impact, resulting in an effective tax rate of approximately 55% 2. Includes interest expense on the Goldcorp promissory and convertables notes 3. Free cash flow includes interest expense on the Goldcorp secured promissory and convertible notes and principal repayment on the Goldcorp secured promissory note (principal on convertible note is paid through excess cash

from financing and exercise of warrants)

Cash flow engine to fund growth

~$70 million operating cash flow/yr

After Tax Operating Cash Flow1,2 ($M)

~$50 million cash

Robust operating margins

$9

00

Au

/

$1

5.0

0 A

g

$9

00

Au

/

$1

5.0

0 A

g

$9

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Au

/

$1

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g

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Au

/

$1

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g

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Au

/

$1

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0 A

g

$1

,22

0 A

u /

$1

7.5

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g

$1

,22

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u /

$1

7.5

0 A

g

$1

,22

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u /

$1

7.5

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g

$1

,22

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u /

$1

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g

$1

,22

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u /

$1

7.5

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g

$-

$50

$100

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$200

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$300

$350

YEAR1 YEAR2 YEAR3 YEAR4 YEAR5

Free Cash Flow Opening Cash

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

YEAR1 YEAR2 YEAR3 YEAR4 YEAR5

$900 Au / $15.00 Ag $1,220 Au / $17.50 Ag

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Improved Cash Flow Amended Silver Agreement

Old Agreement

To 25 Years All silver sold at ~$4 for 25 years (19 years remaining)

Amended Agreement

First 4 years First 3.5 million oz Ag plus 50% of excess sold to SLW at ~$4

50% of Ag production above 3.5 million oz sold at spot

Year 5 to LOM First 6 million oz Ag plus 50% of excess sold to SLW at ~$4

50% of Ag production above 6 million oz sold at spot

Five year average annual : Amended

Agreement1

Goldcorp 2009

Production1

Gold (oz)

Gold Eq (Au Eq oz)

Spot Silver Exposure2 (oz)

107,000 157,000

1,800,000

113,000 113,000

0

Cash Cost1

Co-product (per Au Eq oz)

By-product (per oz)

$337

$60

$392 $287

Increased Gold Equivalent Ounces1

0

50

100

150

200

250

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Gold Eq Additional Gold Eq Gold

7 1. Average annual production and cash cost for next 5 years, gold equivalent based on $900/oz gold and $15/oz silver 2. Attributable to Primero under amended silver purchase agreement and based on NI 43-101 report Source: NI 43-101 technical report and Goldcorp public reports

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TSX:P

San Dimas Solid Platform with expansion & exploration potential

8

World-class gold-silver mine plus 227km2 of exploration concessions in epithermal district

250 year history with historical production estimated at 11 million ounces of gold and over 582 million ounces silver

Skilled workforce of 1,080 people

1. Average annual production and cash cost for next 5 years, gold equivalent based on $900/oz gold and $15/oz silver Source: NI 43-101 technical report

Mazatlan

San Dimas

Durango

Proven & Probable Reserves (at Dec 31, 2009)

Tonnes (millions)

Gold (g/t)

Silver (g/t)

Gold (Moz)

Silver (Moz)

5.6 4.8 339 0.9 60.9

Inferred Resources (at Dec 31, 2009)

Tonnes (millions)

Gold (g/t)

Silver (g/t)

Gold (Moz)

Silver (Moz)

15.2 3.3 317 1.6 154.6

Ownership 100%

Location Mexico

Production1 Estimated 5 year average

157,000 gold equivalent ounces

Cash Cost1 Estimated 5 year average

$337 per gold equivalent ounce

Est. LOM 25 years

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gra

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Au

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(k

oz)

Au (LHS)

Au Grade (RHS)

SAN DIMAS HISTORICAL GOLD PRODUCTION

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TSX:P

San Dimas 2010 Guidance

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Goldcorp Inc. Primero

Reported Jun 30,

2010

Unaudited Jul 1, 2010 to

Aug 5, 2010

Estimated Aug 6, 2010 to Dec 31, 2010

Estimated Full Year 2010

Gold produced (ounces)

45,800 7,700 37,000-42,000 90,000-95,000

Silver produced(1) (ounces)

2,315,500 429,900 1,755,000-1,955,000 4,500,000-4,700,000

Total cash costs(2) (per gold equivalent ounce)

$529(3) $655 $450 - $480 $500 - $530

Total cash costs(2) - by-product (per gold ounce)

$411 $555 $330 - $360 $390 - $420

Capital expenditures (US$ millions)

10 4 12 26

1) Refer to slide 8 for silver purchase agreement details 2) Cash costs are a non-GAAP performance measure 3) Calculated from Goldcorp Inc.’s Second Quarter 2010 Report Material assumptions used to forecast total cash costs(1) for 2010 include: $1,200 per ounce for gold; by-product silver price of $4.04 per ounce; an oil price of $95 per barrel and foreign exchange rates of 1.03 Canadian dollars and 12.63 Mexican pesos to the US dollar.

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TSX:P

Optimization

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TSX:P

Established Infrastructure Building for the Future

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Mill capacity 2,100 tpd - expansion potential

Dry tailings filter plant, capacity 2,100 tpd

RECENT INVESTMENTS

New tailings pumping system

Tunnels connecting Central Block to Sinaloa Graben

Las Truchas Hydro Plant

CURRENT PROJECTS

Tailings Filter 3

Waste Rock Impoundment

New Sub Station

1. Source NI 43-101 technical report

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TSX:P

Infrastructure Projects Tailings Filter 3

100% filtering capacity

Eliminates wet tailings

Allows process plant flexibility

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TSX:P

Infrastructure Projects New Waste Rock Impoundment

3 million m3 Capacity

Proper disposal for waste rock

San Luis bridge: safer, all seasons access

Cementery

Wall protection (250 m)

Access road

Slope

Cut Slope

Slope Slope

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TSX:P

Clean, low cost energy

7.3MW of installed capacity

Truchas avg cost: $0.015 per kw/hr

CFE general Grid avg cost: $0.11 per kw/hr

Provides 76% of San Dimas energy demand

Savings of ~$4.8M per year

Saves 23,500 tonnes of CO2 greenhouse gas

Power line prepared for 14 MW

2011: Stage 2 - additional 7MW

Infrastructure Projects Las Truchas Hydro Plant

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TSX:P

Optimization Review Expansion Opportunity

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Mine planning:

• Ensure sufficient production headings

• Strategic tunnel planning

Operate mill at design capacity

• Current:~1,900 tpd, Design: 2,100 tpd

Match milling to leaching capacity

• Mill: 2,100 tpd, Leach: 2,500 tpd

Complete technical review in 2010

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TSX:P

Growth

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TSX:P Long History of Reserve Growth

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5

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1

1

3

5

7

Au

Eq (

Mo

z)

San Dimas Historical Reserve Growth and Cumulative Production1

Reserve (Beg. of Year) Add'l Resource (Beg. of Year) Cumulative Production

1 Shows San Dimas total gold equivalent ounces based on a 60:1 ratio, part of which is under a silver purchase agreement as detailed in slide 8

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TSX:P

Proven 90% Resource Conversion Opportunity for Long Term Strategic Planning

18 1. NI 43-101 technical report

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Initial 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 End

San Dimas Reserve Replacement based on Au ounces (2003-2009)1

Reserve Additions Production

million tonnes

Gold (g/t)

Silver (g/t)

Gold (Moz)

Silver (Moz)

5.6 4.8 339 0.9 60.9

Proven & Probable Reserves (as at Dec. 31, 2009)

million tonnes

Gold (g/t)

Silver (g/t)

Gold (Moz)

Silver (Moz)

15.2 3.3 317 1.6 154.6

Inferred Resources (as at Dec. 31, 2009) (exclusive of reserves)

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TSX:P

Significant Exploration Upside A Key Focus

More than 100 known veins in district

Significant new high-grade veins in the Sinaloa Graben

Sinaloa Graben million ounce resource potential (only 27koz at Dec. 31, 2009)

Additional discoveries likely and will add to current reserves

Likely lead to increased 2011 exploration budget

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TSX:P

2010 Exploration Success Already Replaced 2010 Production

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Estimated Proven & Probable Reserves

Tonnes Grade (g/t)

Gold Silver Gold

(ounces) Silver

(million ounces)

Exploration Drilling 219,302 5.1 348 36,000 2.5

Exploration Drifting 199,948 7.2 439 47,000 2.8

Total New Reserves 419,250 6.1 391 83,000 5.3

2010 exploration budget of $13.5 million

Total 2010 exploration drilling - 38,000 metres

28,000 metres completed to date

Already nearly replaced estimated 2010 production:

additional 83,000 ounces of gold & 5.3 ounces of silver

Intercepts well above reserve grade

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TSX:P

Exploration Success Throughout Higher Grade and New Reserves

Central Block

EL ABRA

VERDOSA

CORONADO

S. ANTONIO

CANDELARIA

CULEBRA

BLENDITA

PATRICIA

5 HERMANOS

EL SOL

TAYOLTITA

Piaxtla River

GUADALUPE

EL CRISTO TUNNEL

ROSARIO SINALOA GRABEN TUNNEL

Santa Rita mine

SAN FRANCISCO

Tayoltita Block

LA VERDOSA RAMP

N

Mill

Tayoltita mine

Central Block mine

San Antonio mine

(Source: San Dimas Geological Office)

San Vicente Area

West Block

Pilar mine

Vein

Fault

Town

Mill

Tunnel done

0 1 2 km

Tunnel Budget 2010

Arana Hanging Wall

Ag-Au High Grade Trend

LEGEND

Proposed Tunnel

DDH Ag g/t Au g/t m MAR-9-17 514 8.86 2.45

DDH Ag g/t Au g/t m A-25-217(1) 778 7.9 0.80 HW-4G-01B 302 8.7 0.60

DDH Ag g/t Au g/t m RO-16-02 132 3.27 1.43 RO-20-05 514 4.23 1.27

DDH Ag g/t Au g/t m SOL-9-02 549 10.67 1.81

DDH Ag g/t Au g/t m RAMP7-129W 1,115 10.30 2.75

DDH Ag g/t Au g/t m TGS-S-22 958 6.81 8.56 TGS-S-15 403 8.08 7.52

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The Value Proposition

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TSX:P Unlocking Value

23

2010E Gold Eq Production (000 oz)1 2010E Cash Cost ($/Au Eq oz)1,2 Market Capitalization ($B)1

1. Estimates based on Canaccord Genuity research (except for names noted with “*” which are based on company reports and street estimates); Canaccord Genuity prices: Gold Price: 2010: $1,215, 2011: $1,200, 2012: $1,100, 2013: $1,000, 2014: $900, LT: $900; Silver Price: 2010: $18.80, 2011: $19.00, 2012: $18.00, 2013: $17.00, 2014: $16.00, LT: $16.00; Primero 2010E gold equivalent production is annualized.

2. Cash cost based on total cash cost per gold equivalent ounce Note: As of Sept. 2, 2010

$0

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TSX:P P/NAV Multiples

P/NAV Multiples (5% $900 Au/ $16 Ag)1,2

24 1. Estimates based on Canaccord Genuity research (except for names noted with “*” which are based on company reports and street estimates); Canaccord Genuity prices: Gold Price: 2010: $1,215, 2011: $1,200, 2012: $1,100,

2013: $1,000, 2014: $900, LT: $900; Silver Price: 2010: $18.80, 2011: $19.00, 2012: $18.00, 2013: $17.00, 2014: $16.00, LT: $16.00 2. Primero NAV calculation assumes non-NI 43-101 resources upside Note: As of Sept. 2, 2010

1.1

4x

Jr. Average: 1.40x

Inter. Average: 2.11x

-

0.5x

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

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Junior Intermediate Senior

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TSX:P Cash Flow Multiples

Cash Flow Multiples (2010)1,2

25

1. Estimates based on Canaccord Genuity research (except for names noted with “*” which are based on company reports and street estimates); Canaccord Genuity prices: Gold Price: 2010: $1,215, 2011: $1,200, 2012: $1,100, 2013: $1,000, 2014: $900, LT: $900; Silver Price: 2010: $18.80, 2011: $19.00, 2012: $18.00, 2013: $17.00, 2014: $16.00, LT: $16.00

2. Operating cash flow includes interest payments on Goldcorp note Note: As of Sept. 2, 2010

6.4

x

Jr. Average: 15.9x

Inter. Average: 18.8x

-

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

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TSX:P Why Primero Mining?

26

Established Mexican operations

157,000 gold equivalent ounces (2010-2014 average)

Significant cash flow

Market preferred geography

Proven management & board

Acquisition & operations track record

Long life, low cost production

P&P reserves of 860,000 oz Au and 61 M oz Ag

Total resources of 2.5 M oz Au and 216 M oz Ag

Industry low cash cost profile

Ideal growth platform

Well positioned to quickly become a leading mid-tier gold producer

Attractive valuation – re-rating opportunity

Potential re-rating as Primero trades at a discount to peers on all significant value metrics

Source: Production, cash cost and resource numbers from NI 43-101 technical report

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APPENDICES

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TSX:P Experienced Management

28

Wade Nesmith | Executive Chairman Founder of Mala Noche and CEO since incorporation

Former President of Westport Innovations (Europe)

Founding and current director of Silver Wheaton, Chairman of each of Geovic Mining and Selwyn Resources

Joseph F. Conway | President and C.E.O.

Former CEO, President and Director of IAMGOLD from 2003 to 2010 Grew IAMGOLD from a $50 million royalty company to a $6 billion intermediate gold producer with a sector leading growth profile

Eduardo Luna | President, Mexico

Former Chairman and CEO of Silver Wheaton, Executive VP of Goldcorp and Luismin S.A. de C.V. (San Dimas) and President of Mexican Mining Chamber and the Silver Institute

Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Faculty of Mines at the University of Guanajuato and of the Mineral Resources Council in Mexico

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TSX:P Board of Directors

29

Wade Nesmith | Chairman

Joseph F. Conway

Eduardo Luna

Timo Jauristo

EVP, Corporate Development, Goldcorp

Rohan Hazelton

• VP, Finance, Goldcorp

David Demers

Founder, CEO and Director Westport Innovations

Director of Cummins Westport and Juniper Engines

Michael Riley

Chartered accountant with more than 26 years of accounting experience

Chair of the audit committee of B.C. Lottery Corporation and Seacliff Construction

Robert A. Quartermain

Former President, Silver Standard

Director of Vista Gold Corp. and Canplats Resources

Grant Edey

Director of Breakwater Resources and former director of Queenstake Resources and Santa Cruz Gold

Former CFO, IAMGOLD

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TSX:P District Wide Upside – Long Section

Favorable Horizon

Mineralization – Ore Bodies Extension of the Favorable Horizon Potential

SW NE

0 1 2

K I L O M E T E R S

San Antonio West Block

Central Block Castellana and

Robertas

Tayoltita Block Arana Hanging Wall 3,000 m.

2,000 m.

1,000 m.

3,000 m.

2,000 m.

1,000 m.

Sinaloa Graben Block

Source: San Dimas Geology Office

2010 Priority

2010 Priority

30

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PRIMERO MINING CORP. Richmond Adelaide Centre 120 Adelaide Street West, Suite 1202 Toronto, ON M5H 1T1 T 416 814 3160 F 416 814 3170 TF 877 619 3160 Email: [email protected]

INVESTOR RELATIONS Tamara Brown Vice President, Investor Relations T 416 814 3168 [email protected]

The ‘New’ Americas Gold Play