PRIMER 119 2010-17

Dr. Walter Hays Global Alliance For Disaster

Reduction

walter_hays@msn.com

PRIMER 119 2010-17

Dr. Walter Hays Global Alliance For Disaster

Reduction

walter_hays@msn.com

INTEGRATING THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT

A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS

LEST WE FORGET OUR PAST …

AND SIMILAR EVENTS RECUR AND FIND US

UNPREPARED

MAIN IDEA

• A lot of the UNCERTAINTY in future emergency response and recovery phases will be eliminated if we can make:

• The VIRTUAL REALITY derived from EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS

• Look like REALITY.

YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

RISK MANAGEMENTRISK MANAGEMENT

•MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE MADE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENTMADE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT

EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE MADE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENTMADE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT

STRATEGY

• PREVENTION

• MITIGATION

• DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• RECOVERY

• RECONSTRUCTION

STRATEGY

• PREVENTION

• MITIGATION

• DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• RECOVERY

• RECONSTRUCTION

TECHNOLOGY BASE

TECHNOLOGY BASE

RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES

POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS

POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS

RESEARCHRESEARCH

8

California Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario

•Major impact to large metropolitan areas

•Consequences would eclipse Katrina

•Large area of impact - 155,959 Sq. Miles

•Highly populated areas - 36M+

•Significant earthquake risk throughout State

9

California Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario

•Tsunami risk

•Mass Evacuation

•Significant infrastructure impacts

•Response problems due to roadway collapse/blockage

•Estimated loss -- > $400B

SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA

ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR

Source: US Geological Survey

• Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on the Hayward fault is likely to be one of the nation's biggest natural disasters.

• A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects 5 million people, and damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of UC Berkeley.

• A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage. • The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will take a major hit.

The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California , and in so doing, enable end users to identify what they can change now—before the earthquake—in order to avoid catastrophic impacts after the inevitable earthquake occurs.

• The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.

• These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and added economic resiliency.

• The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done.

NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SCENARIO

JUNE 2010 AND MARCH 2008

ASSUMPTIONS: M7.7

2:00 AMhttp://mae.cee.illinois.edu/news/reportusa2.html

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

• A COMPREHENSIVE INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FROM GEOLOGY, GEOPHYSICS, SEISMOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHY, ARCHITECTURE, CIVIL ENGINEERING, AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL LIKE HAZUS-MH

• Based on Increased Scientific and Engineering Knowledge and Regional Demographic Changes, … and

• A continuing dialog sampled in a Regional Workshop, March 17-19, 2008

• Mid-America Earthquake Center, Report 08-02

The New Madrid Seismic Zone covers parts of eight states: Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee.It was the source of four great earthquakes (M8.0 to 8.8) in 1811-1812.

INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL

INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL

NMSZ: ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS

NMSZ: ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS

34

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million

Rural Pop.8-9 million160–200 Cities

Memphis 1-1.5 Million

MO

IL IN

KY

TN

ALMS

AR

New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario

Approximately 12 million people at high risk

•Consequences eclipse Katrina

• impact area - 126,575 Sq Miles

•44M people in eight-State region

•Multiple jurisdictions and Governors

Directly Impacted States

Indirectly Impacted States

35

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million

Rural Pop.8-9 million160–200 Cities

Memphis 1-1.5 Million

MO

IL IN

KY

TN

ALMS

AR

New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario

Approximately 12 million people at high risk

•Significant loss of infrastructure

•Response problems hindered by long aftershock sequence

•Estimated loss -- $300B+

•Severe weather & evacuation issues

Directly Impacted States

Indirectly Impacted States

36

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million

Rural Pop.8-9 million160–200 Cities

Memphis 1-1.5 Million

MO

IL IN

KY

TN

ALMS

AR

New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario

Approximately 12 million people at high risk

•Nearly 86,000 total casualties

•3,500 fatalities

•Estimated loss -- $300B+

Directly Impacted States

Indirectly Impacted States

MEMPHIS, TN: AT RISK

Damage and loss estimates and the planning assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of a magnitude 7.7 earthquake at 2:00 am.

The epicenter is assumed to be located approximately 33 miles North North-West of Memphis, TN.

The geography of the multi-state area will change dramatically as a consequence of liquefaction and landslides.

The most notable changes will occur in and around the Mississippi River and other rivers within the Mississippi River drainage basin.

715,000 buildings will sustain heavy damage , and 100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong ground shaking.

Damage will occur over a wide area, especially in locations underlain by soft soil. Multiple fires will occur throughout the area.

Utilities will be interrupted, leaving 2.5 MILLION without power, and water, gas, and waste disposal outages will occur over a wide area.

Critical infrastructure (power plants, dams) throughout the region will be seriously compromised

Essential infrastructure (schools, universities, hospitals) throughout the region will be seriously compromised

Transportation systems (highways, bridges, airports, river traffic) throughout the region will be seriously compromised

Communications throughout the region will be seriously compromised

The State of Tennessee incurs the highest level of damage and social impacts. Over 250,000 buildings are moderately or severely damaged.

Over 260,000 people are displaced and over 80,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities) are expected.

Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion.

Well over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving more than 120,000 people displaced.Over 15,000 casualties.

Total direct economic losses in Missouri reach nearly $40 billion.

Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion.

Well over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving more than 120,000 people displaced.Over 15,000 casualties.

Total direct economic losses in Missouri reach nearly $40 billion.

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK