www.dennikn.skFRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015

The Juncker Cur-se could be the Wests epitaph. The former head of government in Lu-

xembourg (now running the European Commission) bemo-aned Europes feebleness in economic reform. We know what to do. We just dont know how to get elected after weve done it.

If things looked bad when he said that in 2008, they are wor-se now. The war in Georgia dis-played the Kremlins aggressive mindset but also Russias mi-litary weakness. Few people then believed that Vladimir Putin would be able to mount a sharp strategic challenge to NATO in the Baltic states.

NATO has reluctantly mo-ved on contingency planning

and prepositioning. But the gap between alliance capabilities and those of Russia is wide-ning not shrinking especially if you take nuclear weapons, space, new-generation conven-tional, cyber and propaganda weapons into account.

Europes leaders are wor-ried, quite rightly, about other things. The problems of the tiny Greek economy have be-en allowed to balloon into an international financial crisis. Everyone knows what is ne-eded: debt relief plus real re-form. But nobody seems able to negotiate it.

The Middle East looked bad in 2008. It is far worse now, with Syria, Yemen and Iraq in chaos. The tides of migrants fleeing abominable conditions in countries such as Eritrea, or simply wanting a better life than quite well-run pla-ces such as Senegal can offer, overwhelms Europes fraying solidarity.

The real lesson in the dread-ful mess of 2015 is that Euro-pes internal problems cannot be fixed without much stronger government at home and abro-ad. The euro zone, if it is going to survive, needs to become a transfer union, with transfers of money in one direction and of sovereignty in another.

Similarly, the chaos to the south and east requires vigoro-us European interventionpo-

litical, economic and military. It could happen: with 500 million people and a nearly $20 trillion GDP Europe is the biggest and richest place in the world. In conjunction with Americas mi-litary might, the EUs economic heft makes it an equal partner in an alliance that could run the world.

True, neither the European public, nor the policy-makers, are remotely ready for such steps. But what is the alternati-ve? It is not the status quo, but the destruction of the Europe-an economic and security order so laboriously built up over the past six decades, with poverty, instability, misery and war, not just in the European neigh-bourhood, but in Europes he-artlands. Globsec has much to discuss.

The real lesson in the dreadful mess of 2015 is that Europes internal problems cannot be fixed without much stronger government at home and abroad.

Leaderless World

The eurozone needs to become a transfer union, the chaos to the south and east requires vigorous European intervention. It could happen, but neither the European public, nor the policy-makers are ready for such steps

British Prime Minister David Cameron will come to Slovakia for the first time. He will attend the global conference on foreign policy and security in Bratislava. Besides him, five more prime ministers, six presidents and almost a thousand participants will attend this years GLOBSEC. Do not miss David Camerons keynote speach at 13:00 on Friday at Kempinski hotel. FOTO - TASR/AP

Bigger mission

Dear GLOBSEC friends, it is my great honour and pleasure to

welcome you on behalf of the whole GLOBSEC team to the tenth jubilee Bratisla-va Global Security Forum, GLOBSEC 2015.

It has been a decade since we organised the first edi-tion of this conference.

Since then, Europe and the world have changed tremendously and we have faced one of the most dyna-mic decades in history. The mission to bring peace, free-dom and security to Europe is not yet finished.

GLOBSEC has developed against the background of this exceptionally dynamic period. It has become an indispensable forum for sharing new ideas and for-mulating answers to the challenges that we face.

It is up to all of us to transform the debates into political actions and stra-tegies. You, the GLOBSEC community, are crucial in this endeavour. Use the three day conference to the maximum, spread our deba-tes beyond the walls of this venue and translate them into action.

Dear friends, welcome to Bratislava, welcome to Cen-tral Europe and enjoy every minute of GLOBSEC 2015.

INSIDE

Andrei Zubov - How can we solve the Cri-mean problem? Page 2

What should you see? Ambassador Rastislav Ker recommends which panels are most interesting for him this year at Globsec. Page 2

Best quotes of GLOBSEC Page 2

10 years of GLOBSEC: How do you remember it? Page 3

Timothy Snyder - Interview about the Russian challenge with Yale historian. Page 4

Interview Timothy Snyder

There will never be Maidan on

Red Square Page 4

EDWARD LUCASThe Economist

ROBERT VASS Founder of the GLOBSEC Forum

FRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015 GLOBSEC DAILY2

We need such a conference, we need such a gathering, for us to exchange views, experience and expertise, that will help humanity fight against anyone who would like to break this global security.Faysal GouiaDiplomatic Institute for Training and Studies in Tunis

This is one of the few if not the only place where one can really discuss issues of democracy, safety, challenges to European integration, and reforms with people who understand every word that is said. Here you can be very relaxed, you can talk to people who do understand you. Oleh RybachukChairman and co-foun-der of Centre UA

It is probably the most important conference on security issues in Central Europe today.Another thing about Globsec that makes it a stand out conference is that it really fosters lively debatebringing diversity of opinions, not long monologues Ian BrzezinskiSenior Fellow in the International Security Program

BEST QUOTES OF GLOBSEC 2014

Ambassador Rastislav Ker is a Slovak diplomat, currently serving as Ambassador of Slovakia to Hungary. He has also held the position of Honorary President and Chairman of the Board of the Slovak Atlantic Commission since 2008.

What should you see?

Zubov: How to solve the Crimean problem

In early March 2014, Russian society and the Crimean people rejoiced, and the Russian Presi-dent, Mr Putin said pom-

pous words about the Crime-an ship that has forever retur-ned to the Russian harbour. Crimea has always been, and once again became Russian these words were repeated countless times, almost like a mantra.

But over the past year it has become clear, that the Crimean problem has become an instrument of destruction of international relations in Europe and throughout the world. The world took the an-nexation of Crimea by Russia as an act of unprovoked and unjustifiable aggression.

Residents of Crimea are far from being unanimous on this issue. Some of them, mainly the Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians are for the return to Ukraine, the majori-ty of the population against. Is it possible to decide the fate of the land without confor-ming to the will of its inhabi-tants?

Lets check the history first. Crimea was not Russian until April of 1783. In ancient and medieval times the Cri-mean peninsula was owned by many states. But Russia was still non-existent, and if Ruses and Slavs appeared in the Crimea at all, it happened in very small quantities.

Yes, in the 11th Century, in Taman (now Kuban), there was the Tmutarakan Prin-cipality, which was ruled by the Rurik dynasty, but was more in favour of Kiev than Moscow. The population of Crimea, at the time, was very colourful, there were lots of Greeks, Italians, Armenians, Jews, Slavs, Polovtsian, des-cendants of the Khazars and Normans. Lingua franca gra-dually became a kind of Cri-mean Tatar language.

Of all the countries who have controlled Crimea throughout history, the Rus-sian Federation was the brie-fest owner of the territory and so has the weakest claim to it. Even during the short tenure of Soviet power over Crimea, they managed to commit many crimes against the indigenous Crimean Ta-tar people and against all the other peoples of the peninsu-la, including Russians.

In 1939, 1.1 million people

lived on the peninsula, in Sep-tember 1944 only 379-thou-sand were left, mostly Rus-sians, Ukrainians (21%) and Belarusians. The annexation of Crimea transferred a local problem to the global level. But is it possible to solve this problem?

Yes, there is a solution. But it requires the rejection of unfounded claims on foreign land and the return to the will of the people. But Crimea cannot be simply returned to Ukraine like a bag of stolen

potatoes. The fact remains that a large part of the popula-tion of Crimea, like in March 2014, wants to become a part of the Russian Federation. But which part?

To find out the real will of the people of Crimea, we ne-ed a new referendum under strict international control, respectable, not hastily but slowly and carefully prepared over several years.

Whatever the outcome of the referendum, the descen-dants of the deportees should be given the right of repatria-tion. Control of the area should be provided by special interna-tional forces and Crimea sho-uld continue to be considered as a territory of Ukraine. There should be three questions to the plebiscite: do you want Cri-mea to remain a part of Ukrai-ne; to be incorporated into Rus-sia; or do you want to live in an independent Crimean state. So it was in 1955, when Saarland decided and even more recen-tly in Scotland. This will be an honest and constructive appro-ach.

You can meet Professors Zubov and Snyder during debate at City talks at 15:30 on Saturday.

Crimea as Russian Jerusalem? Explain to Tatars. FOTO - TASR/AP

Ambassador Rastislav Ker recommends which panels are most interesting for him this year

To find out the real will of the people of Crimea, we need a new referendum under strict international control, respectable, not hastily but slowly and carefully prepared over several years.

It is a horrible job to choo-se only a few recommen-dations from the Globsec menu, but if I have to I wo-uld not miss these debates.

Keynote speech of David Cameron

My top pick would be the speech by British Prime Minis-ter David Cameron, newly ree-lected leader of one of the key EU and NATO countries.

Opening of conference, Friday at 1pm.

Lets talk about energy. It is about our safety

I also look forward to the Energy Security sessions. In my view we have to do eve-rything to make energy (all types) only a normal com-mercial commodity. Session speakers promise good debates.

Dynamic Visegrad: Energy, Growth, Competitiveness;

with the leaders of V4 countries, Friday at 4pm

Energy: A perfect (Dis)union?; with Vice President of the

European Commision Maro efovi, Saturday at 3pm

The USA: Still a superpower?

Maybe because I am biased and I still think the USA plays

an essential role in European security, I am really looking forward to the session on US foreign policy.

US Foreign Policy: Still a European Power?; with US senator John McCain;

Saturday at 5pm

Russian Bear and lessons from WWII

I recommend not to neglect our City talks this one: Are we doomed to repeat the same mista-kes? poses the question which is often looming in my head before I manage to fall asleep :-).

Globsec City Talks: Russian Bear Awake: Scenarios and Strategies; with Carl Bildt,

former Swedish Prime Minister; Saturday at 11am

WWII: Are We Doomed to Repeat the Same Mistakes?;

with Timothy Snyder and Andrey Zubov; Saturday at

3.30pm

Our really big challenge: propaganda war

My Sunday choice is Session 4, since I think we seriously underestimate the extent and impact of the ongoing infor-mation war. It is equally hostile and maybe even more dangero-us than conventional threats. My bonus is to meet Robert Pszczel again, with whom I ran my first NATO liaison offices well more than 20 years ago. Since then, the world is even more complicated and challen-ging.

Propaganda: Exploiting the Underbelly of Democracy;

with Yevhen Fedchenko director Stopfake.org and

Robert Pszczel, director of NATO information office;

Sunday at 9am

John McCain will be one of the most interesting panelists this year at GLOBSEC. You can meet him during the Saturday evening debate about US fo-reign policy.

FOTO - TASR/AP

NATO will be represented by Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow. Do not miss his Friday debate about military alliance based on col-lective defense. FOTO - TASR/AP

ANDREY ZUBOV,Professor of History

3FRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015 GLOBSEC DAILY www.dennikn.sk

GLOBSEC took place in the midst of the Ukrainian crisis when every country in the world was deciding what their new strategy was, what their future will look like. People left smarter then they came.George Friedman Chairman of Stratfor

In just a few years, the Bratislava Global Security Forum has become one of Europes premier venues for discussing international security matters. And this years meeting comes at a critical moment for all of us. Anders Fogh Rasmussen former Secretary-General of NATO

GLOBSEC has become a Forum that has exceeded all expectations as well as traditional CentralEuropean themes and become a one-of-a-kind security and foreign policy platform.Miroslav LajkSlovak Minister of Foreign Affairs

GLOBSEC is gradually taking a very honourable place among such events as the Brussels Forum orthe Munich Conference with an emphasis on Central and Eastern Europe as well as the EUs Eastern neighbourhood.Konstantin von EggertEditor-in-Chief of the Kommer-sant FM Radio

GLOBSEC has been important to this particular moment in our history because it has permitted us to discuss in very pointed ways such important issues as democracy, freedom, and human rights. John Allen Former Commander of the U.S. Forces in Afghanistan

BEST QUOTES

10 years of Globsec: How do you remember it?

We ask several regulars of GLOBSEC why they always come back without getting bored

Iveta Radiovformer Slovak Prime Minister

I still remember the very first and modest be-ginnings, which already were high-quality.

Every year the conference is better-organized and after 10 years has this good content small event transformed into a substantial international happening. It is a dynamic story which I have experienced as member of the NGO sector and also as a politician.

Karel Schwarzenbergformer Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs

For me, GLOB-SEC has been since its begin-nings one of the most important security confe-rences in Europe.

It surprises me how well pre-pared and organized it is. I also come here with pleasure. If you see that there is only a small group of people behind it, it is a big success for Slovakia.

Grigorij MesenikovPresident of Slovak think-tank IVO

I have attended the majority of GLOBSEC confe-rences, including the first, modest ones. Over these

years, GLOBSEC has changed and it has gained importance even at the European level. I have only good memories from it and look forward to it.

Zbynk Pavlak Jagello 2000 Association

It is not easy to find the strongest moment of 10 years of Globsec. But one is re-

ally exceptional: when we suc-cessfuly started a new tradition of Czech & Slo-vak Transatlantic

Award, at GLOBSEC 2012. To-gether, GLOBSEC and Days of NATO in Ostrava stepped up to a higher dimension.

Alexandr Vondraformer Czech Minister of Defence

In 10 years, Bratislava became an im-portant center of security talks in Europe. Be-cause of this, we

Praguers come enthusiactically every year to see how this event is bigger and better. We do not have a conference like this in our city.

Dniel BrthaCentre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy

GLOBSEC happened to be part of my life 10 years ago, when about a dozen foreign

guests (including me) mainly from youth sections of the Atlantic Treaty Associations of the Visegrad countries, were invited to a very successful Slovak event. My friends had big unrealistic dreams, but GLOBSEC has proved that even the founders could not dream big enough. Im happy I was involved and followed such an extraordinary success from the front row.

Martin BtoraAdviser to the Slovak President Andrej Kiska

I managed to invite Zbigniew Brzezinski to the GLOBSEC two years ago. It was a pleasure

to listen to him. Although not everyone agrees with what he says, he has a unique gift to think and talk as simple as possible. But still he accurately captures the essence of a prob-lem he is talking about. There was also one Russian official in 2009. After his speech the crowd asked him: Tonight, we openly discuss about and criti-cize our governments. Can you

also tell us something similar about Russia? And who are your allies? He told them he is a professional, so they should not expect him to criticize his own government. We have allies, he said, but if you ask if we have friends, I tell you, that we are talking about politics here. It was something similar to the quote of former British PM Lord Palmerson, who in the 19th century said we do not have changeless friends or enemies, we only have fixed interests. GLOBSEC is a useful forum.

Robin Shepherd International Affairs at the Henry Jackson Society

GLOBSEC started out well, against even its founders wil-dest expectations. It then proceeded

to just get better and better un-til it emerged as, by a wide mar-gin, the most important yearly conference in Central and Eas-tern Europe, putting to shame every other foreign and security conference in all of Europe in the process.

FOTO - TASR

Every year the conference is organized better and after 10 years from a good content small event it has transformed into a substantial international happening.

Iveta Radiovformer Slovak Prime Minister

FRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015 GLOBSEC DAILY4

the next thing is you cultivate member states among the EU to varying degrees, like Hunga-ry, Slovakia, Cyprus, Greece or the Czech Republic. If you have a pro-Russian voting block insi-de the EU then the EU cannot make policy.

When Putin is watching whats happening in Ukraine, is he satisfied?

I will say the same thing I sa-id a year ago. This is a strategic disaster for Russia because its strategy depends on balancing between the European Union and China and when you aliena-te one of them then you are for-ced to lean to the other. Whats happened is that Russia is beco-ming more and more a satellite of China. I dont think its great geopolitics or strategy. The sud-den tilt to China is a mistake be-cause it limits Russias options in the future. But we are in a si-tuation where everybody loses. Only China is winning.

But Moscow cant say that...

Russias regime cannot acknowledge that they have made the world hostile. They expected that as soon they went into Crimea everything would collapse, but it did not happen, even when they entered Don-bas with the same expectations. Although the Ukrainian state is very weak and needs lots of help it hasnt collapsed and con-tinues to exist. Now places like

Kharkiv, Odessa and Dnipropet-rovsk are much more Ukraine orientated

Putin has helped them to find a Ukrainian identity?

That happened immediately after the invasion of Crimea a year ago and its very sad. The idea of Russian civilization is fi-ne if you are reading Dostoevsky for example, but when Russian civilization is defined as politics then people are forced to make a choice. The moment when Russian tanks crossed the Ukra-inian border Ukrainian citizens had to make a choice. Then Ukrainians are forced to define Russia as a hostile and diffe-rent society; millions of Ukra-inians have said this, including Russian-speaking Ukrainians. When you say that Russkiy mir is more than just civilization, you can expect resistance. You cannot say every place where they speak English, like Canada or Nevada, is part of the British Empire. People will be happy to read Shakespeare in school, but that does not mean that they will welcome the British navy. So the invasion of Ukraine is a huge historical turning point. Its the first time for a long time that people in that part of the world can choose and now they have chosen and its part of the Russian strategic failure.

Was the western dream of democratic Russia, even Oba-mas attempt at a reset nai-ve?

Foreign war is often done as a substitute, for example when you dont want to make reforms. Fighting the war in Ukraine was a way for Putin to consolidate his position without actually doing anything for Russian so-ciety. This is true for all kind of regimes. When the USA invaded Iraq in 2003, which was also in my view a strategic disaster, what I said at the time was that it does make leaders too popular and thus bound for a fall. The difference is that in a democra-cy there is a way out. Eventually you can elect somebody from a different party. Russia doesnt have this option because it is not a democracy. This means that no one has a way out of this.

In comparison with Cen-tral Asian leaders Putin is still young so he can rule for deca-des...

Because of their story abo-ut Maidan as an American plot and the fear there could be a Maidan at Red Square they have put a lot of money into the se-curity apparatus, from FSB, and the Night Wolves to Chechen paramilitaries, they have some kind of security pluralism. In preparing for a situation which will never happen, since there will never be a Maidan on Red Square, they have overprepared and this is when something bad can happen. They have created too many guys with too many guns who dont have real jobs because there is no Maidan and no real Russian opposition.Complete interview can be found at www.globsec.org

In a few days the EU will very probably prolong the sanctions against Russia, are they working? Are they an effective enough way for the West to contain Russia in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea and the support of separatism in the east of the country?

The sanctions are primarily important because they demon-strate the existence of unity and the capacity for decision making of the European Union. One can never be sure how sanctions will affect the targeted coun-try because there are so ma-ny variables at play. The main purpose of the sanctions is to demonstrate that the Europe-an Union is united enough to follow through with this policy. If you ask me if its enough, no, clearly its not enough. Russia is a very opaque authoritarian regime which is very resistant to outside influence, for better or for worse. If Ukraine is a fra-gile state under partial military occupation with obvious eco-nomic and political problems, sanctions are a necessary tactic for the immediate moment, but the real strategy is to take time and financial resources to try to strengthen the Ukrainian state.

A year ago you proposed in an article that the EU sho-uld offer candidate status for Ukraine. But as we saw recen-tly, the Riga Eastern Partner-ship Summit was a big disap-pointment without big steps forward. Is Europe afraid of Ukraine?

Generally I would say the idea of prospective membership is a very positive thing. It was very positive for Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia and Hungary. The present situation is similar to that after 1989. Poland was not going to the EU immedia-tely after 1989 but future mem-bership was a very important prospect. So even if it took 15 years, as it did, you had this target, this idea that if you are doing the right things you will be rewarded. Ukrainians are not stupid, they know in any case that they wont be full members of the EU tomorrow or in five years. Rather than say we cant do this in ten years - which eve-ryone knows anyway - its better to say that in principle member-ship is possible if you do the ri-ght things. You cant stop enlar-gement because each example shows its possible. If Slovakia or Romania can be in the EU, why not Ukraine, honestly?

Arent the military actions of Mr. Putin an attempt to stop Ukraine from being a mo-re modern European country?

It doesnt seem that Russia has an interest in annexing eas-tern territories; if it did it could - who would stop them. Russia doesnt seem to care about the population of these territories. If they cared they would not start a war which costs tho-usands of lives, injuries, and millions of displaced people. Ruining peoples lives is a stran-ge way to show concern. But I think you are right that Russian leaders believe that they have an interest in disrupting the Ukra-inian state, but its much bigger than that. They want to disrupt the whole process of European integration of which Ukraine is only one example.

We see that Putin has so-me allies among the radical left and right wings. Is he a new prototype of a nationa-list who radicals admire?

I think its a question for the radicals. There are three things: firstly, some of the po-pulists and fascists are getting their money and attention from Putin and pretty much every-one likes to receive money, the second thing is about some ideological affinities especial-

ly with the anti-human rights, anti-sexual rights and mino-rities agendas, and thirdly, a common interest in destroying the EU. The Russian strategy is essentially destructive, to turn the European Union into a big mass of nation-states in which Russia would be relatively more powerful. The EU is essentially the best way of life ever offered in the history of the West; the Russian offer is to destroy that in the name of a Donetsk-type lifestyle.

European parliament wants to monitor the finan-cing of populist parties by Russia, but is the bigger prob-lem not politicians like Fico or Orban from traditional parties who are fighting aga-inst the sanctions?

The Russian strategy has several different levels. One is you support true radicals, Nazis, fascists or people who can cau-se a lot of troubles, another is you support the populist right, people against the EU, then you support separatism of all kind claim that the Scottish referen-dum was falisified, friendly sup-port of UKIP in England; and

Foreign war is often done as a substitute, for example when you dont want to make reforms. Fighting the war in Ukraine was a way for Putin to consolidate his position without actually doing anything for Russian society.

Snyder: There will be no Maidan on Red Square

Kremlin wants to disrupt the whole process of European integration of which Ukraine is only one example, says historian and Yale professor Timothy Snyder

Timothy David Snyder (1969) is an American historian, author, and academic. He is a professor at Yale University, specializing in the history of Central and Eastern Europe, and the Holocaust.

FOTO N - VLADIMR IMEK

MIREK TDAreporter, Dennk N