Price Responsive Load / Retail DR RMS Update Paul Wattles Carl Raish October 6, 2015.

Price Responsive Load / Retail DR

RMS Update

Paul Wattles

Carl Raish

October 6, 2015

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RMS topics

• 2014 analysis - status report• 2015 snapshot date review• Next steps

Price Responsive Load / Retail DR October 6, 2015

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PUC Rule

• Pursuant to PUC Subst. Rule §25.505(e) (5), “Load Serving Entities (LSEs) shall provide ERCOT with complete information on load response capabilities that are self-arranged or pursuant to bilateral agreements between LSEs and their customers”


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Pricing Events – 2014


• ERCOT identified 9 days in calendar year 2014 with pricing events• price for 4 or more consecutive intervals exceeded $200 in all four competitive load zones.

• One of the days, January 6, was an EEA day when prices were at the cap until various forms of demand response kicked in

• Three of the days were on a Sunday: March 2 and 16, September 21

• Graphs on the following slides compare actual prices on those nine days to the average price for that day-type and month

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Jan 6 – EEA event Feb 10

Mar 2 - Sunday Mar 3

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Mar 16 - Sunday

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Sep 21 - Sunday

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Pricing Events – 2014 (continued)


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8 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR October 6, 2015

4-CP

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Number of ESIIDs with 4 CP Responses – 2014

October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR

Reduce Hour

Reduce Day

Total Respond

Non Respond

30-Jun-14 1,447 395 1,842 11,306

21-Jul-14 1,211 406 1,617 11,534

25-Aug-14 1,568 415 1,983 11,176

10-Sep-14 1,417 389 1,806 11,343

Response Type4 CP Days

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Hour-ending 17:00 MW Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2014

MW Load Reduction for Responding 4-CP ESIIDS


Total Response

Reduce Hour

Reduce Day

16-Jun-14 643.1 477.3 165.8

21-Jul-14 299.2 183.6 115.5

25-Aug-14 715.2 526.9 188.2

10-Sep-14 779.6 555.2 188.2

8-Aug-14 624.2 504.9 119.3

4 CP Days

Near CP Day with Largest Response

Reductions for Hour Ending 17:00

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Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2014

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4 CP 15-Minute Response 2009 - 2014

CP Date CP TimeReduce

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6/25/2009 16:15 558.8 6/4/2009 17:00 348.2 6/26/2012 16:30 725.2 6/11/2012 16:30 532.67/13/2009 17:00 394.5 6/12/2009 17:00 349.2 7/31/2012 17:00 599.6 6/25/2012 17:00 641.78/5/2009 16:00 486.7 6/16/2009 17:00 407.8 8/1/2012 17:00 526.7 7/20/2012 16:00 489.19/3/2009 16:00 401.7 6/24/2009 16:30 535.0 9/5/2012 17:00 655.6 7/30/2012 16:45 665.7

7/8/2009 16:45 397.0 8/2/2012 16:45 518.17/10/2009 16:45 402.2 9/4/2012 16:45 549.07/17/2009 16:45 403.1 9/6/2012 17:00 683.67/31/2009 16:00 377.7 9/7/2012 16:30 694.6

8/4/2009 17:00 405.7 9/28/2012 14:30 171.28/6/2009 17:00 333.79/2/2009 17:00 416.5

average 460.4 n=11 average 397.8 average 626.8 n=9 average 549.5

6/21/2010 16:45 335.6 6/18/2010 16:00 353.6 6/27/2013 17:00 585.7 6/19/2013 16:30 337.87/16/2010 16:30 434.2 6/22/2010 16:30 468.1 7/31/2013 17:00 600.5 6/26/2013 17:00 385.88/23/2010 16:00 424.9 6/23/2010 17:00 344.7 8/7/2013 16:45 601.9 6/28/2013 17:00 603.59/14/2010 16:45 474.3 6/23/2010 17:00 428.8 9/3/2013 16:45 471.7 7/9/2013 16:45 339.2

7/14/2010 17:00 522.0 7/10/2013 17:00 413.57/15/2010 16:45 560.9 8/1/2013 16:45 607.3

8/3/2010 16:30 445.1 8/6/2013 16:45 515.98/4/2010 16:45 508.0 9/4/2013 17:00 477.08/5/2010 16:30 448.9

8/11/2010 15:15 126.78/20/2010 15:30 176.5

9/1/2010 15:30 336.7


6/15/2011 17:00 631.2 6/14/2011 17:00 494.0 6/30/2014 16:30 662.5 6/3/2014 17:00 316.57/27/2011 16:30 566.4 6/16/2011 17:00 355.1 7/21/2014 16:45 304.0 7/8/2014 16:30 436.38/3/2011 17:00 707.7 6/17/2011 16:45 562.9 8/25/2014 17:00 714.0 7/14/2014 15:00 249.09/2/2011 16:30 639.6 6/28/2011 17:00 428.1 9/10/2014 17:00 781.9 7/22/2014 16:45 476.2

7/7/2011 16:45 461.3 7/25/2014 17:00 490.47/13/2011 17:00 594.6 8/6/2014 17:00 396.57/14/2011 16:45 636.2 8/8/2014 15:45 448.5

8/1/2011 16:45 468.7 8/21/2014 16:00 318.48/2/2011 16:45 640.3 8/22/2014 16:30 565.08/5/2011 16:45 478.0 9/2/2014 16:30 729.8

8/23/2011 16:45 403.7 9/9/2014 16:45 560.59/1/2011 16:45 540.6

9/13/2011 16:30 533.3


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4-CP Interval Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2014

Percentage of Load Reduction based on Customer Peak

Total Reduction

Percent of Total

Reduction

Total Reduction

Percent of Total

Reduction

Total Reduction

Percent of Total

Reduction

Total Reduction

Percent of Total

Reduction30-Jun-14 113.6 17.7% 161.8 25.2% 98.4 15.3% 269.0 41.9% 642.8

21-Jul-14 81.5 27.3% 111.7 37.4% 30.6 10.2% 75.1 25.1% 298.8

25-Aug-14 147.5 20.6% 156.8 21.9% 99.3 13.9% 310.9 43.5% 714.5

10-Sep-14 138.5 17.8% 178.6 22.9% 123.6 15.9% 338.4 43.4% 779.0

4 CP Days

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Other Load Control

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2014 OLC Analysis


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May Composite Day

Early Oct Composite Day Mid October Composite Day

• 5 Reps reported OLC programs in 2014

• ~19,200 Res and 64 Bus customers

• 3 Reps reported 7 deployments in 2014 affecting 3,200 Res and 5 Bus customers

• 4 events (3 in Aug, 1 in Oct) showed no evidence of any load reduction

• May and October days combined into composite graphs to approximate the total OLC load reduction that could occur with same-day deployment


Peak Rebate

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2014 PR Analysis


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• 6 Reps reported PR programs in 2014

• ~ 410,700 Res and 30,200 Bus customers• With DLC: Res 4,400 Bus 4

• 4 Reps reported 9 deployments in 2014 affecting 32,100 Res and 143 Bus customers• With DLC: Res 4,400 Bus 4

• 3 events (1 in Sep, 2 in Oct) showed no evidence of any load reduction

• 6 events showed obvious reductions ranging from 27 – 40 MW

• August and September days are combined into composite graphs to approximate the total PR load reduction that could occur with same-day deployment


Real Time Pricing

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2014 RTP Analysis


• 11 Reps reported RTP programs in 2014

• ~ 1,000 Res and 9,700 Bus customers• None with DLC

• 2 pricing events days (Jan 6 and Mar 3) with evidence of load reduction– Jan 6: ~4,500 customers ~12.9 MW of load reduction (~8.8 MW from BUSIDRRQ)– Mar 3 ~5,000 customers ~7.4 MW load reduction (~4.4 MW from BUSIDRRQ)

• Note: EEA related Load reduction led to price drop, and RTP related load reduction mostly occurred following the price drop

Jan 6, 2014 – EEA Day Mar 3, 2014


Block and Index

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2014 BI Analysis


• 16 Reps reported BI programs in 2014

• ~ 6,800 Bus customers• None with DLC

• 2 pricing events days (Jan 6 and Mar 3) with evidence of load reduction– Jan 6: ~5,400 customers ~507.9 MW of load reduction (~330.4 MW from BUSIDRRQ)– Mar 3 ~5,700 customers ~229.3 MW load reduction (~43.6 MW from BUSIDRRQ)

• Note: EEA related Load reduction led to price drop, and BI related load reduction during high price intervals did occur prior to the price drop

– Jan 6: 455 MW in interval 30 when price was $2,800– Mar 3: 179 MW in interval 28 when price was $4,990

Jan 6, 2014 – EEA Day Mar 3, 2014

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Combined Price Response - 2014

Category Response (MW)

4-CP 710

Other Load Control 5

Peak Rebate 40

Real Time Pricing 5

Block and Index 180

Critical Peak Pricing 0

Time Of Use Analysis in Progress

Total 940


• Response reported for ERCOT competitive areas only• Customers responding to 4-CP and participating in RTP or BI were excluded

from RTP and BI totals.• 4-CP customers on RTP reduced load by 9 MW during January pricing event • 4-CP customers on BI reduced load by 330 MW during January pricing event

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Updated Categories pg. 1 of 3

Demand Response category (improved) definitions:

RTP – Real Time Pricing - retail prices for all hours or intervals based on ERCOT Real-Time Settlement Point Prices for the premise Load Zone, calculated every 15 minutes, or other real-time wholesale price indicator(s).

BI – Block & Index – fixed pricing for a defined volume of usage, coupled with pricing indexed to the wholesale market for usage exceeding the block. Block prices and volumes may vary by time of day/week. (removed last line from definition - Option could include if usage dips below the block.)

PR – Peak Rebates – a retail offering in which the customer is eligible for a financial incentive paid for load reductions taken during periods of time identified by the LSE, and communicated to the customer during the prior day or the event day, or both. LSE has defined a method to identify whether a customer has responded and to quantify the response amount. Payment (rebate) to customer is based upon customer’s response.• Peak Rebate examples - • No DLC: The REP sends an email one day prior if high prices are forecasted, and sends a reminder text/tweet the

morning of the following day. The REP identifies responding customers using a recent similar weather day as a baseline to estimate what the customer’s load would have been. If the customer’s actual load during the predicted intervals was lower than the baseline, the REP agrees to pay the customer $100 / kw of reduction.

• DLC: REP sends email one day prior if high prices are forecasted, and sends a reminder text/tweet the morning of the following day. When high prices materialize, the REP sends a signal to the customer’s web-enabled thermostat to increase its set point by 3 degrees. The REP establishes a baseline for the customer to estimate what the customer’s load would have been. If the customer’s actual load during the predicted intervals was lower than the baseline, the REP agrees to pay the customer $100 / kw of reduction.


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Demand Response category definitions:

CPP – Critical Peak Pricing – prices that rise during critical peaks: limited duration periods of time identified by the LSE that usually correlate to high prices in the real-time wholesale market. Critical peak events may occur a limited number of times per year and typically are communicated a day in advance.

TOU – Time of Use — prices that vary across defined blocks of hours, with predefined prices and schedules. (As used here, does not apply to seasonal adjustments). TOU Example – free evening hours

OLC – Other Direct Load Control – contracts that allow the LSE or a third party to control the customer’s load remotely for economic or grid reliability purposes. This category applies to Direct Load Control (DLC) with different deployment criteria than described elsewhere. (Avoid double counting if DLC data was reported in other categories.). Customer incentive is predefined and does not vary based upon the response.• OLC Example - • OLC (always has DLC) REP identifies a day on which high prices have, or are about to, materialize. The REP

sends a signal to the customer’s web-enabled thermostat to increase its set point by 3 degrees. The REP agrees to pay the customer $10 / month for each summer month, and the customer agrees to allow the thermostat to be set higher 10 times during the summer for periods up to 2 hours long. If the customer overrides the REP thermostat setting during a month, the customer’s payment is reduced by $3.

OTH – Other Voluntary Demand Response Product – any retail product not covered in the other categories that includes a demand response incentive or signal.


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Demand Response category definitions:

NOTE – will not use 4CP and FO categories for summer 2015 data collection4CP – Four Coincident Peak – predictor signals or direct load control provided to customers in advance of potential Four Coincident Peak (4CP) intervals during summer months (June through September). Reducing load during such intervals lowers transmission charges. 4CP charges apply to large customers (peak demand ≥700 kW) in competitive choice areas, and also to NOIEs at the boundary meter level.

FO – Financial Option – product where LSE purchases an option from the customer that is backed by a specified level of DR and uses it for portfolio trades in the wholesale market.

4CP - ERCOT can do the 4CP analysis without the need to ask the LSEs to provide data in the survey.

FO – category has not been used for 2 years


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Snapshot for Summer 2015

2015 Summer data collection timeline• September 30, 2015 - snapshot by REPs for which ESI IDs are in

programs• November 4, 2015 - file submission to ERCOT*• November 18, 2015 - error correction file submission to ERCOT

– * pushed file submission back by 2 weeks to allow any error handling to be completed prior to Thanksgiving Holiday

– REP should make all necessary corrections and re-send the full file to ERCOT. ERCOT will use the last file sent for data analysis.

– ERCOT will send survey monkey after receipt of ‘clean data’ or declaring ‘uncle’

• December 1, 2015 – ERCOT will send Survey Monkey links to REPs to gather REP-specific event information

• December 11, 2015 – Survey Monkey responses due


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Next Steps – for future

Still for future discussion• Future years (starting 2016?)

– Evaluate quarterly submissions for 2016 – Ask REPs to evaluate winter programs for future consideration

• Please review categories to see if definitions fit or if new categories would need to be added

• Consider possible dates and/or frequency of a winter file submission• Protocol Revision and/or Market Guide Revision?• Review categories each year to see if adjustments need to be

made• Review reporting of events via Survey Monkey to see if there is

a better method to leverage


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Take Aways

• REPs – Prepare to take the snapshot for Sept 30th

– Log self-initiated events in preparation for the survey– Map product types to the categories in the guide– If unsure which category to use – please ask

• Carl Raish ([email protected]) • Paul Wattles ([email protected]) • Karen Farley ([email protected])

• ERCOT– ERCOT will continue work on TOU analysis for future report to

market.


mailto:[email protected]



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Price Responsive Load / Retail DR RMS Update Paul Wattles Carl Raish October 6, 2015.

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