1

DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS (STAT)

Address: Juancho Yrausquin Boulevard 6 (units 7/8)

Email: statinfo@sintmaartengov.org

Press release

Philipsburg, March 15th 2017

Consumer prices Sint Maarten December 2016 Bi-monthly price index up slightly but annual inflation trending downwards

The Consumer Price Index for Sint Maarten has increased in the month of

December 2016 by 0.2 percent compared to that of October 2016.

When comparing average consumer prices over a twelve month period (Dec.

2015 to Dec. 2016), an increase of 0.1 percent was recorded compared to

the same period one year earlier. Inflation has shown an overall decline in

2016 (0.1%) compared to the rate of inflation recorded in 2015 (0.3%). This

is also notable in the major expenditure categories; ‘Food’, ‘Housing’ and

‘Transport & Communication’, which all continued to show low rates of

inflation in 2016. Markedly, five of the nine expenditure categories which

accounted for 77% of total expenditure, recorded deflation in December

2016, significantly impacting the lower annual inflation rate result in 2016.

This is evident from data released by the Department of Statistics (STAT)

today.

2

Price changes between October & December 2016

The Consumer Price Index for Sint Maarten has increased in the month of December

2016 by 0.2 percent compared to that of October 2016. The price index recorded in

December 2016 is 128.2.

Expenditure Category

WEIGHT INDEX

OCTOBER

2016

INDEX

DECEMBER

2016

%

CHANGE

Food 10% 200.9 201.4 0.2

Beverages and tobacco 1% 149.3 149.4 0.1

Clothing & footwear 7% 111.0 112.0 0.9

Housing 39% 125.1 125.5 0.3

Household furnishing & appliances 6% 144.2 143.7 -0.3

Medical care 3% 115.3 114.0 -1.1

Transport & communication 20% 106.0 106.2 0.2

Recreation & education 6% 107.1 106.0 -1.0

Misc. 8% 121.2 121.7 0.4

TOTAL 100% 127.9 128.2 0.2

Figure 1

Expenditure Categories – overall marginal increases recorded in consumer prices

In December 2016, six of the nine expenditure categories have become marginally more

expensive, whilst three recorded decreases. Amongst the more expensive were the

categories; ‘Food’ (+0.2%), ‘Beverages and Tobacco’ (+0.1%), ‘Clothing and Footwear’

(+0.9%), ‘Housing’ (+0.3%), ‘Transport & Communication’ (+0.2%) and ‘Miscellaneous’

(+0.4%). Whereas the expenditure categories ‘Household Furnishing & Appliances’,

‘Medical care’ and ‘Recreation & Education’ recorded the following decreases; 0.3%,

1.1% and 1.0% respectively.

3

Food

1

Figure 2

Within the expenditure category Food, it can be noted that only three of the nine food

groups became less expensive, these were Meat and Fish (-0.6%), Pre-cooked dishes (-

0.6%) and Sugar & Chocolate (-0.4%). All other six food groups became more expensive.

More specifically the following products largely influenced the total price change within

their food groups: ‘Grain’ was largely influenced by the products small breads n.e.c2

(+6.5%), Cereal (+6.4%) and Flour (+4.0%). The food group ‘Meat & Fish’, was largely

influenced by oxtail (-4.4%), pork meat (-4.9%), pork chops with & without bone (-5.3%),

Ham (-4.1%) and goat meat (+14.2%). The food group ‘Dairy Products’ was largely

influenced by; powdered milk (-2.3%), Yoghurt and pudding (+21.9%) and eggs (-9.4%).

The food group ‘Potatoes, Vegetables & Fruit’ was largely influenced by; leafy greens (-

4.5%), cabbage (-9.8%), onions (-2.5%), tomatoes (-4.1%), bell peppers / paprika

(+8.5%), fresh vegetables n.e.c (-28.6%), spices (+2.4%), apples and pears (-4.5%),

plantain (+10.6%) and other fresh fruit (+40.7%).

1 Please note that the pie chart above depicts the share (weight) each food group carries toward the entire Food expenditure category, whilst the percentages indicate the price change within that food group. 2 Not elsewhere classified

Grain+1.2%

Meat and Fish-0.6 %

Fats & Oils+0.4%

Dairy Products +0.3%

Potatoes, Vegetables & Fruits

+0.2%

Sugar & Chocolate-0.4%

Pre-cooked dishes-0.6%

Eating-out+1.1%

Other food resources

+0.5%

FOOD EXPENDITURE CATEGORY10% of CPI

4

Housing

3

Figure 3

Within the expenditure category Housing, two of the five product groups became

marginally more expensive whilst two remained stable and one became less expensive.

The product group ‘Energy expenses’ declined by 0.1 percent while the groups

‘Maintenance of dwelling’ and ‘Dwelling costs’ increased by 1.0% and 0.4% respectively.

An increase in the consumer price of electricity by 8.0% and a 30.8% decrease in

consumer prices for cooking gas cylinders largely influenced the total price change within

the product group ‘Energy expenses’. The product group ‘Maintenance of dwelling’ was

largely influenced by the change recorded in the price of Paint (+5.7%) and wood (-3.5%).

3 Please note that the pie chart above depicts the share (weight) each food group carries toward the entire Housing expenditure category, whilst the percentages indicate the price change within that product group.

Dwelling costs+0.4%

Energy expenses

-0.1%

Maintenance of dwelling

+1.0%

Garden maintenance

0.0%

Water0.0%

HOUSING EXPENDITURE CATEGORY39% of CPI

5

Transport & Communication

4

Figure 4

Within the expenditure category Transport & Communication, one of the four product

groups became more expensive, whilst the others remained stable. Noteworthy is that

the product group ‘Vehicle Expenses’ was largely influenced by the following products;

Batteries (+2.9%), Car parts (-0.8%), Gasoline (+2.0%) and Diesel (+3.5%).

4 Please note that the pie chart above depicts the share (weight) each food group carries toward the entire Transport & Communication expenditure category, whilst the percentages indicate the price change within that product group.

Vehicle Purchase 0.0%

Vehicle Expenses +0.7%Transport services

0.0%

Communication0.0%

TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION EXPENDITURE CATEGORY

20% of CPI

6

Sint Maarten Consumer Price Index a Broader Perspective

Consumer prices in the latter part 2016 were generally at a higher level than 3 years ago

(see bar chart below), this is depicted in the upward sloping trend line. An increasing

trend is shown, with consumer prices in December 2016 being 1.6 points above that of

December 2014. However it is noted that a period of declining consumer prices was

observed during August 2015 to April 2016. This however was followed by a period of

steadily increasing consumer prices for the remaining part of 2016.

Figure 5

Sint Maarten Consumer Prices a closer look into the developments

The developments in overall consumer prices has shown a gradual increasing trend as depicted in the figure 5 above, yet over the past 3 year period has shown much fluctuations. In this section we will look at annual average prices and index levels on the product level within the three major expenditure categories namely; ‘Housing’ (39%), ‘Transport & Communication’ (20%) and ‘Food’ (10%). In the ‘Food’ expenditure category the following products are being highlighted namely, white bread, wheat bread, flour, white rice, brown rice, corned beef, canned sausages, luncheon meat, sardines (in can), salmon (in can), tuna (in can), chicken, milk, baby formula, potatoes, tomatoes, root vegetables, dried beans & peas, apples and pears, grapes, prunes and oranges, coffee, tea, and sugar. The consumer price developments of these food products are depicted in figures 6 through 15 below. Subsequently in the ‘Transport & Communication’ expenditure category the following products are being highlighted namely, Diesel and Gasoline; price developments of these products are depicted in figures 16 through 19 below. Followed by figures 19 and 20 which highlight consumer price developments for energy expenses (GEBE / electricity rates) which largely influence the expenditure category ‘Housing’. Most notable are the downward trend in consumer prices for petroleum related

123.5

124.0

124.5

125.0

125.5

126.0

126.5

127.0

127.5

128.0

128.5

DE

C

JA

N

FE

B

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JU

N

JU

L

AU

G

SE

P

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

JA

N

FE

B

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JU

N

JU

L

AU

G

SE

P

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

JA

N

FE

B

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JU

N

JU

L

AU

G

SE

P

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

2014 2015 2016

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX SINT MAARTEN DEC 2013 - DEC 2016)

7

products, primarily driven by world crude oil price levels in 2015 and 2016.

Figure 6

Figure 7

100

129.91

187.09

200.59

100 102.18

112.58

157.26 162.66

100

174.79 173.20

198.71

221.83 216.62

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

BASEPERIOD

OCT_2006

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Average Annual CPI Developments

white Bread wheat Bread Flour

146.31

155.96

100

168.81 159.63

186.80

204.25 201.25

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

BASEPERIOD

OCT_2006

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Average Annual CPI Developments

White Rice Brown Rice

8

Annual Average price (in ANG)

2014 2015 2016

White Bread (1-2lbs per loaf) 2.69 2.83 2.73

Wheat Bread (1-2lbs per loaf) 5.83 6.18 5.66

White Rice (2lbs) 3.13 3.11 3.20

White Rice (5lbs) 7.70 7.88 7.65

White Rice (10lbs) 15.08 14.46 14.24

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure 10

132.21

177.83

216.31

143.18

100 116.14

181.90

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

BASEPERIOD

OCT_2006

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Average Annual CPI Developments

Corned beef Canned Sausages Luncheon meat

142.77 141.21

304.86

100

179.39

237.84

80

130

180

230

280

330

BASEPERIOD

OCT_2006

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Average Annual CPI Developments

Sardines (in can) Salmon (in can) Tunafish (in can)

9

Annual Average price (in ANG)

2014 2015 2016

Chicken Drumsticks (2lbs) 6.64 6.36 5.85

Chicken Thighs (2lbs) 7.88 7.38 6.67

Chicken Whole Legs (2lbs) 7.05 6.72 6.19

Chicken Breast (Per Kilo) 14.47 14.52 12.89

Whole Chicken Fresh (Per Kilo) 8.96 9.09 7.87

Tuna In Water / Oil (5 Oz) 2.50 2.44 2.39

Figure 11

Figure 12

Figure 13

218.00

216.35

100

183.83

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

BASEPERIOD

OCT_2006

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Average Annual CPI Developments

canned Milk powdered Milk Baby Milk

183.43 100

189.42

306.95

227.11

80

130

180

230

280

330

BASEPERIOD

OCT_2006

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Average Annual CPI Developments

Potatoes Root Vegetables

Tomatoes Dried Beans and Peas

10

Figure 14

Figure 15

246.33

400.61

100138.84

80

130

180

230

280

330

380

430

Average Annual CPI Developments

Apples and Pears Grapes, prunes, etc. Oranges

98.93

148.13

132.06

109.24

143.29

100

162.12

8090

100110120130140150160170

Average Annual CPI Developments

Sugar Coffee Tea

11

Figure 16

Figure 17

Figure 18

AN

G 2

.57

AN

G 2

.47

AN

G 1

.93

AN

G 1

.74

AN

G 2

.21

AN

G 2

.11

AN

G 1

.51

AN

G 1

.25

$97.98 $93.17

$48.66 $43.29

$-

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

ANG 0.00

ANG 0.50

ANG 1.00

ANG 1.50

ANG 2.00

ANG 2.50

ANG 3.00

2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Average Price of Sint Maarten Petroleum

Products vs World Crude oil

Gasoline (per liter) Desiel (per liter) Crude Oil (per barrel)

2.80

1.61 1.81

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

JAN

MA

R

MA

Y

JUL

SEP

NO

V

JAN

MA

R

MA

Y

JUL

SEP

NO

V

JAN

MA

R

MA

Y

JUL

SEP

NO

V

JAN

MA

R

MA

Y

JUL

SEP

NO

V

2013 2014 2015 2016

Average monthly Price of GASOLINE on Sint Maarten (in ANG, per liter)

2.35

1.13 1.33

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

JAN

MA

R

MA

Y

JUL

SEP

NO

V

JAN

MA

R

MA

Y

JUL

SEP

NO

V

JAN

MA

R

MA

Y

JUL

SEP

NO

V

JAN

MA

R

MA

Y

JUL

SEP

NO

V

2013 2014 2015 2016

Average monthly Price of DESIEL on Sint Maarten (in ANG, per liter)

12

Figure 19

Figure 20

2008 AUG0.530

2009 FEB0.146

2011 JUN0.568

2011 DEC0.276

2012 FEB0.428

2015 FEB0.214

2016 FEB0.182

2016 APR0.149

2016 DEC0.233

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6FE

B

JUN

OC

T

FEB

JUN

OC

T

FEB

JUN

OC

T

FEB

JUN

OC

T

FEB

JUN

OC

T

FEB

JUN

OC

T

FEB

JUN

OC

T

FEB

JUN

OC

T

FEB

JUN

OC

T

FEB

JUN

OC

T

FEB

JUN

OC

T

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

pri

ce in

AN

GBi-monthly Developments in GEBE Fuel Clause Rates

(2006 - present)

68.87 63.34

53.87 51.96

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC

2013 2014 2015 2016

in A

NG

Sint Maarten Electricity Cost developments for 100 kWh usage (2013 - 2016)

13

Long-term inflation Inflation Sint Maarten: 20-year Overview

Figure 21

The annual inflation recorded on Sint Maarten over the past 20 years has been extremely

volatile; ranging from less than 1 percent in some years to over 4.5 percent in other years.

Still noticeable is the continuous and consistently declining inflation recorded over the last

6-years. Notable is that the rate of inflation recorded in 2016 is the lowest over the last

20 year period.

3-year Overview The trend line depicted on the bar chart below indicates that inflation on Sint Maarten

over the prior 3-year period has been firmly declining. The rate of inflation contracted from

2.5 percent in December 2013 to 1.9 percent in December 2014 to 0.3 percent in

December 2015 and now a mere 0.1 percent in December 2016. The recorded level of

inflation started its descent since mid-2012 and has continued to fall steadily throughout

2015, followed by recorded levels of deflation throughout 2016. Yet the level of deflation

gradually slowed down in the second half of 2016 ultimately resulting in an inflation result

of 0.1 percent at year-end.

3.2

2.1 2.0

0.5

1.0

0.5

1.7

2.1

3.1

2.3 2.3

4.6

0.7

3.2

4.6

4.0

2.5

1.9

0.30.1

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Infl

atio

n(%

ch

ange

of

the

yea

r-av

erag

e C

PI)

Inflation Sint Maarten over the past 20 years

14

Figure 22

Inflation Sint Maarten December 2016

The 12-month average of consumer prices was 0.1 percent higher in December 2016

than a year earlier. This represents a decrease in the inflation rate of approximately 67

percent within this period mentioned.

Inflation amongst the major Expenditure Categories

The annual inflation recorded amongst the major expenditure categories ‘Housing’ (39%),

‘Transport & Communication’ (20%) and ‘Food’ (10%) over the past 7-year period is

depicted in the bar chart below. Noteworthy is that food inflation recorded much instability

as opposed to the other major expenditure categories. Yet equally notable is the

downward trending food inflation particularly in the last 4 years.

Striking also, is that both the expenditure categories ‘Housing’ and ‘Transport &

Communication’ which accounts for 59 percent of household expenditure has recorded

deflation in 2015 and 2016, which has ultimately affected the overall inflation level in these

years.

2.5 %1.9 %

0.3 %0.1 %

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

DE

C

FE

B

AP

R

JU

N

AU

G

OC

T

DE

C

FE

B

AP

R

JU

N

AU

G

OC

T

DE

C

FE

B

AP

R

JU

N

AU

G

OC

T

DE

C

2014 2015 2016

Infl

atio

n(%

ch

ange

of

the

12

-mo

nth

av

erag

e

INFLATION SINT MAARTEN (DEC 2013- DEC 2016)

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Food 10% 9.3% 3.0% 9.1% 11.4% 6.3% 6.3% 7.0% 4.0%

Housing 39% -1.9% 5.8% 4.5% 2.4% 0.8% 1.9% -1.7% -0.2%

Transport & Communication 20% -1.2% 1.3% 4.7% 1.8% 0.9% -1.0% -2.3% -1.8%

-8.0%

-3.0%

2.0%

7.0%

12.0%

Inflation

(% c

ha

nge

of th

e y

ea

r-a

ve

rage

CP

I)

Annual Inflation on Sint Maarten for the Major Expenditure Categories