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![Page 1: “President Obama’s vision for high-speed rail mirrors that of President Eisenhower, the father of the Interstate highway system, which revolutionized.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032600/56649dbc5503460f94aadb5a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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“President Obama’s vision for high-speed rail mirrors that of President Eisenhower, the father of the Interstate highway system, which revolutionized the way Americans traveled.”
—White House news release
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Unasked Questions•How much will it cost?•How to pay for it?•Who will ride it?•Do benefits exceed costs?
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French Travel
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Trams &Metros
Low-SpeedRail
High-SpeedRail
Bus Air (inEU-25)
Auto
Miles Per Capita in 2004
127 386 397 437
1200
7588
Source: Panorama of Transport, EU
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Japanese Travel
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Bus High-SpeedRail
Air (inJapan)
Trams &Metros
Low-SpeedRail
Auto
Miles Per Capita in 2007354 399 405
1013
3924
Sources: Ministry of Transport, Japanese Railways
490
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Type/Location
Top Speed
Average
SpeedVery Hi-Speed
(California)220
135-145
High-Speed (Florida)
125 80-85
Moderate-Speed (31 States)
110 55-75
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Costs•Moderate-speed in Midwest: $2.4 million/mile in 2004•Moderate-speed NYC-Buffalo: $3.9 million/mile in 2005•High-speed in Florida: $25 million/mile in 2005•Very high-speed in California: $67 million/mile in 2008
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Inflation-Adjusted Costs
•Moderate-speed rail: $3.5 million/mile•High-speed in Florida: $31 million/mile•Very high-speed in California: $67 million/mile
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HSR “Vision” Construction Costs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mod-SpeedVision
Billions of Dollars30
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HSR “Vision” Construction Costs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mod-SpeedVision
Add FL & CA
Billions of Dollars30
90
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HSR “Vision” Construction Costs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mod-SpeedVision
Add FL & CA Add Gaps
Billions of Dollars30
90 100
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HSR “Vision” Construction Costs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mod-SpeedVision
Add FL & CA Add Gaps All High-Speed
Billions of Dollars
30
90
550
100
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Interstate Highway System
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Passenger Miles Per Lane or Rail Route Mile
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
HSR minusCA
HSRAverage
RuralInterstates
UrbanInterstates
CaliforniaHSR
Millions of Passenger Miles Per Year
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Passenger Miles Per Lane or Rail Route Mile
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
HSR minusCA
HSRAverage
RuralInterstates
UrbanInterstates
CaliforniaHSR
Millions of Dollars Per Lane or Route Mile
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Annual Passenger Miles Per Capita
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
HSR Statesminus CA
HSRNationalAverage
California RuralInterstates
UrbanInterstates
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Annual Passenger Miles Per Capita
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
HSR Statesminus CA
HSRNationalAverage
California RuralInterstates
UrbanInterstates
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Annual Passenger Miles Per Capita
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
2,700
HSR Statesminus CA
HSRNationalAverage
California RuralInterstates
UrbanInterstates
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DC to NYCModeMode TimeTime FareFareAcela 2:50 $99Regiona
l3:15 49
Bus 4:15 20Air 1:00 119
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Fewer than 8% of
Americans work in
downtowns
Fewer than 1% of
Americans live in
downtowns
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“We calculated a total emissions savings of 6 billion pounds of CO2 per year if all proposed high speed rail systems studied for this project are built.”
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Assumptions• ”Relatively low fuel prices and a continuing trend of drivers switching to sport utility vehicles” = average 23 mpg• 1.6 passengers per auto• Airline efficiencies grow 0.6 percent per year• Trains 70 percent full
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Alternative Assumptions
• Obama’s fuel-economy standards will increase average mpg to 29 by 2025• 2.4 passengers per auto in intercity traffic• Airline efficiencies have grown by 3.2 percent per year• Amtrak trains only 51% full
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“Intercity auto trips tend to be relatively efficient highway trips with higher-than-average vehicle occupancy rates—on average, they are as energy-efficient as rail intercity trips.”
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“Additionally, if passenger rail competes for modal share by moving to high speed service, its energy efficiency should be reduced somewhat—making overall energy savings even more problematic.”
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Emissions Using Report Assumptions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Emissions Saved HSR EmissionsBillion Pounds of CO2 Emissions Per Year
Automobiles
Planes
Trains & Buses
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Emissions If Trains 51 Percent Full
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Emissions Saved HSR EmissionsBillion Pounds of CO2 Emissions Per Year
Automobiles
Planes
Trains & Buses
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Emissions If 29 MPG & 2.4 People/Car
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Emissions Saved HSR EmissionsBillion Pounds of CO2 Emissions Per Year
Automobiles
Planes
Trains & Buses
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If Airline Efficiency Grows at 3%/Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Emissions Saved HSR EmissionsBillion Pounds of CO2 Emissions Per Year
Automobiles
Planes
Trains & Buses
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Grams of CO2 Emissions Per Passenger Mile
0
50
100
150
200
250
Bus Auto High-SpeedRail
Air Low-SpeedRail
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“The environmentally
preferred alternative is the
No Build Alternative.”
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