PRESENTING SPONSOR€¦ · 27/4/2016 · Measures of Unemployment Continued to Decline...
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PRESENTING SPONSOR MEDIA SPONSORS OTHER SPONSORS Strome College of Business
Transcript of PRESENTING SPONSOR€¦ · 27/4/2016 · Measures of Unemployment Continued to Decline...
PRESENTING SPONSOR
MEDIA SPONSORS
OTHER SPONSORS
Strome College of Business
2
Old Dominion University2016 National Economic Outlook
April 27, 2016
Larry “Chip” FilerAssociate Professor of Economics
www.odu.edu/forecasting
3
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Seasonally adjusted annualized rate
June 2009Dec. 2007
Recession
3871838808
3889938991
3908339173
3926439356
3944839539
3963039722
3981439904
3999540087
4017940269
4036040452
4054440634
4072540817
4090941000
4109141183
4127541365
4145641548
4164041730
4182141913
4200542095
4218642278
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 Revision-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Consumption GPDI Net Exports Government
4
Why the Big Revision to Q4 GDP?Contributions to GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Nowcast for2016 Q1
February 2 February 26 March 16 Current
Atlanta Fed 1.2% 2.1% 1.9% 0.3%
Economy.com 1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 0.1%
New York Fed 1.1% 1.1%
5
Nowcasts of Real GDP Growth for 2016 Q1(Advanced Estimate Announced on April 28th)
• Q1 GDP has been weak for several years
• This has been blamed on weather related factors.
• Recently some economists are suggesting that the numbers reflect seasonality in the data that is not being eliminated properly – residual seasonality
• The effect of this on Q1 numbers can be as large as a 1% drag.
6
Learn to Say “Residual Seasonality”
The Labor Market Had a Really Good 2015(And Early 2016 Has Been Decent)
7
8
Nonfarm Employment Continued Its Strong Growth(1-Month Net Change and 3-Month Moving Average)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
-1000.00
-800.00
-600.00
-400.00
-200.00
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
thou
sand
s
Additional 628k jobs added in first three months of 2016.
9
Measures of Unemployment Continued to Decline(Headline=Black, U6=Red)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00Peak Current
Headline
10% 5.0%
U6 17% 9.8%
• Retail Sales were weak
• Business Investment continues to be a drag
• Dollar appreciation continues to hurt exports
10
What Has Happened With Recent Incoming Numbers?
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Johnson Redbook
11
Retail Sales(Year over Year Sales Growth)
Source: Economy.com
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
12
Consumer Confidence is Eroding(Year over Year Growth in Consumer Sentiment Index)
Jan 2016 saw the first contraction in the index since October of 2013
Source: The Conference Board
• Positive– $1000 per household– Equivalent to a $100 billion tax cut
• Negative– Global contraction?– Perhaps a .2 to .5 % decrease in fixed investment– Certain regions may feel the squeeze
• Timing matters– 2015 impact undoubtedly positive– Positive impacts deteriorate in future years
13
Impact of Cheap Oil(Slide from January 2015)
14
US and OPEC Crude Production
Source: United States Energy Information Administration.
OPEC 2017 Forecast
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
% c
hang
e fr
om p
revi
ous
year
Change 14/15 Change 15/16-24%
-23%
-22%
-21%
-20%
-19%
-21%
-23%
US Oil Companies Change in CAPEX Spending Guidance
15Source: Genscape and BNP Paribas
16
Business Fixed Investment(The Drag from Inventories and Energy)
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Nonresidential InventoriesDomestic Fixed Investment
Net
Cha
nge
($B
ill)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
-48000
-46000
-44000
-42000
-40000
-38000
-36000
-34000
-32000
-30000
Represents Worsening Trade Balance
17
Trade Weighted Dollar Value versus Trade Balance(12-Month Moving Average)
Represents $ Appreciation
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board of Governors
A Look At 2016
18
• 2015 Q4 illustrates why the Fed did not “commit” to any path for normalization.
• The Fed has flexibility
• The Fed is unlikely to raise rates at every meeting during 2016.
• We are forecasting 2 increases during 2016 putting the Fed Funds Rate in the 1% - 1.25% range by the end of 2016.
19
The Fed in 2016
April 2016
July 2016
August 2016
December 2016
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
0.36
0.42
0.47
0.58
20
The Fed Funds Futures Market is “Bearish”(Close on April 25th)
Source: CME Group
3 Mos 1 Year 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year 30 Year0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2014 Avg 2015 Avg2016 Avg Forecast Avg. 2016
Per
cent
age
rate
21
Yield Curves – Doing the Twist in 2016
Source: US Department of Treasury
Historical Forecast
2013 2014 2015 2016
Real Gross Domestic Product 1.49% 2.42% 2.40% 2.03%
Employment Growth 1.70% 1.90% 2.11% 1.50%
Unemployment Rate 7.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1%
Consumer Price Index 1.22% 0.70% 0.13% 1.34%
CPI - Core 1.71% 1.60% 1.83% 2.03%
3-Month Treasury Bill 0.06% 0.03% 0.05% 0.50%
10-Year Treasury Bond 2.35% 2.55% 2.14% 2.05%
30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate 3.98% 4.17% 3.85% 4.12%
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National Economic Outlook for 2016 (April 13th update)
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Old Dominion University2016 Regional Economic Forecast
April 27, 2016
Professor Vinod AgarwalDirector, Economic Forecasting Project
Strome College of Businesswww.odu.edu/forecasting
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Presentation outline
I. 2015 Economic Performance
a) Regional and National Economies
b) Defense
c) Civilian Nonfarm Jobs
d) Residential Market in Hampton Roads
e) Taxable Sales and Hotel Revenue
f) Port and Cargo
II. Forecast for 2016
Rate of Growth of GDP (U.S.) and GRP (Hampton Roads): 2001-2015
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September 2015. Real GRP for Hampton Roads is calculated by using the GDP price deflator. e represents estimated value
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2.43
1.14
Percent change real GDP Percent change real GRP
Growth Rate
Hampton Roads
2001- 2015
U.S.
26Source: U.S. Department of Defense , U.S. Department of Commerce, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
e represents estimated value ; f represents forecasted value
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%49.5% 48.8%
33.5%
44.4%
39.2%37.6%
Hampton Road’s Gross Regional Product Attributable to DOD Spending
1984-2016
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21450
500
550
600
650
700
BCA 2011 Sequestration BBA 2013 BA 2015
Bill
ion
s o
f d
olla
rs
Sequestration
27
Caps on Department of Defense Discretionary Spending, FY 2012 to FY 2021
Source: BCA 2011, Budget Requests for FY14, CBO Sequestration Update Report, BA 2015, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
The legislated cap on spending increased by only $0.8B (0.15%) for FY 2015 and is now expected to increase by $26.8B (5.14%) during FY 2016 and by only $3.0 B (0.55%) during FY 2017
No Sequestration
Estimated Direct DOD Spending in Hampton Roads
Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement
Billi
ons
of $
28
0
5
10
15
20
25
10.00
19.33 18.7218.80
Between 2000 and 2012, DOD spending in our region increased by an average of 5.65% annually. In 2016, it will be about 2.8% lower than its peak in 2012.
2000 to 2016
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Estimated Average Compensation (Wages, Salaries and Fringe Benefits) Selected Categories
Hampton Roads: 2013 and 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. BEA refers to compensation as earnings.
Earnings in 2013
Earnings in 2014
Percent Change
2013 to 2014
Military $90,115 $91,503 1.54%
Federal Civilian Govt. Employees $97,800 $102,829 5.14%
State and Local Govt. Employees $56,933 $58,318 2.43%
Private Nonfarm $40,262 $41,198 2.33%
30
Growth(CAGR) in Estimated Average Compensation (Wages, Salaries and Fringe Benefits) Selected Categories
Hampton Roads: 2001, 2013, and 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. BEA refers to compensation as earnings.
Compound Annual Growth
Rate2001 to 2010
Compound Annual Growth
Rate2010 to 2014
Percent change2013 to 2014
Military 7.2% 1.0% 1.5%
Federal Civilian Govt. Employees 4.5% 2.1% 5.1%
State and Local Govt. Employees 3.6% 1.3% 2.4%
Private Nonfarm 2.9% 2.0% 2.3%
The 2007-2009 Recession Including Virginia and Hampton Roads% Decline in Total US Non-farm Payroll Employment from Pre-Recession Peak
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
3.53%
2.98%
-1.88%
Month After Pre-Recession Peak
USA VA HR
Dec
line
from
Pre
-Rec
essi
on P
eak Pre-Recession Peak Dates:
U.S.: January, 2008Virginia: April, 2008
Hampton Roads: July, 2007
32
New Civilian Jobs Gained/Lost in Selected MSA’s, Virginia, and North Carolina
2007* to 2015
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES seasonally unadjusted data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. * Peak employment in Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham and Virginia occurred in 2008. Change for these areas is shown for 2008 through 2015.
Tho
usan
ds
Rethink and Diversify the HR Economy
•REGION --not just individual cities and counties–Go Virginia is an excellent start
•Traffic Problems– Not just roads, but also airports
•Diversification – HR Community Foundation Economic Competitiveness Initiative suggested:
–Advanced manufacturing --- Bio Sciences–Coastal Energy --- Cyber Security–Modelling and Simulation --- Unmanned Systems
•Entrepreneurship
Performance of Residential Housing Market During 2015
34
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Year Existing Homes SoldNew Construction Homes
SoldPercent New Construction
2002 19,869 4,969 20.0%
2003 21,421 4,757 18.2%
2004 23,548 4,587 16.3%
2005 24,755 4,379 15.0%
2006 22,405 4,327 16.2%
2007 19,154 3,912 17.0%
2008 15,046 3,178 17.4%
2009 15,851 2,673 14.4%
2010 14,703 2,265 13.4%
2011 15,818 2,366 13.0%
2012 16,856 2,664 13.6%
2013 18,791 2,878 13.3%
2014 18,700 2,485 11.7%
2015 20,595 2,954 12.5%Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
Number of Existing and New Construction Homes Sold in HR 2002-15
36
Year Median Price Percent change year to year
2002 $116,900 7.3%
2003 $130,000 11.2%
2004 $156,500 20.4%
2005 $192,000 22.7%
2006 $214,900 11.9%
2007 $223,000 3.8%
2008 $219,000 -1.8%
2009 $207,000 -5.5%
2010 $203,900 -1.5%
2011 $180,000 -11.7%
2012 $185,000 +2.78%
2013 $190,000 +2.70%
2014 $193,205 +1.70%
2015 $203,000 +5.07%
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
90% increase from 2002-07
19% decreaseFrom 2007-11
Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes in HR 2002-15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Estimated Months of Supply of All Existing Homes in Hampton RoadsBased on Average Sales in the Last 12 Months: January 1996 – March 2016
37Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Average (Jan 1996- March 2016) = 5.64 months
March 2016: 5.29Peak: 10.24 (November 2010)
38
Observations on Existing Homes Market since 2011
• Inventories have decreased substantially. • Days on market have also decreased.• Number of homes sold has increased. • Estimated months of supply have declined
substantially.• But the median price of homes has increased only
slightly• The explanation lies in distressed market– short
sales and bank-owned homes (REOs).
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Number of Active Listing of Distressed Homes (REO & Short Sales)Hampton Roads: June 2008 to March 2016
39Source: Real Estate Information Network (REIN) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
March 2016: 1,357Peak: 3,224 (November 2010)
Number of Existing Short Sale and REOs Residential Homes Sold
Hampton Roads: 2006- 2015
40Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
Year All Sales Short Sales Percent Short Sales
REO Sales Percent REO Sales
2006 22,405 3 <1% 56 <1%
2007 19,152 40 <1% 223 1.2
2008 15,047 217 1.4 833 5.5
2009 15,849 598 3.8 2,271 14.3
2010 14,696 784 5.3 3,021 20.6
2011 15,817 1,127 7.1 4,213 26.62012 16,856 1,644 9.8 3,337 19.8
2013 18,791 1,769 9.4 3,178 16.9
2014 18,700 1,347 7.2 2,744 14.7
2015 20,592 1,230 6.0 2,542 12.3
Retail Sales and the Hotel Industry in Hampton Roads during 2015
41
42Source: Virginia Department of taxation and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Figures for calendar year 2015 include predicted values for December 2015.
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
20.56 20.98
21.78
$ Billions
Taxable sales increased by 2.9% during 2014 and by 3.8% during 2015.
Taxable Sales, Hampton Roads: 1996 to 2015
43Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report, January 29, 2016 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Hotel Revenue in Hampton Roads 1996-2015
Hotel Revenue in 2015 exceeded their previous peak observed in 2007. Revenue grew by 5.4 % and 6.4 % during 2014 and 2015 respectively.
44
USA Virginia Hampton Roads0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
7.4% 7.3%6.4%6.3%
7.4%
7.4%
REVENUE
REVPAR
Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report January 29, 2016 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Percent Change in Hotel Revenue and REVPAR 2014 to 2015
45
Percent Change in Hotel Revenue within Hampton Roads: 2014 to 2015
Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report January 15, 2016 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Wmsbg VaBch Nrfk Ports Nnews Hmpt Ches Suff HR0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%9.0%
4.1%
8.2%
6.5%
7.9%
6.4%
46
Percent Change in REVPAR within Hampton Roads2014 to 2015
Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report, January 16, 2016 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
47
REVPAR in Selected Markets: 2007 and 2015
2007 2015Percentage
Change
USA $65.55 $78.67 +20.0%
Virginia $61.91 $64.03 +3.4%
Hampton Roads $52.93 $53.87 +1.8%
Virginia Beach $64.62 $71.80 +11.1%
Williamsburg $47.47 $48.16 +1.5%
Newport News/Hampton $41.49 $39.98 -3.6%
Norfolk/Portsmouth $54.05 $51.48 -4.8%
Chesapeake/Suffolk $52.90 $47.36 - 10.5%
Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report January 29, 2016 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
Performance of the Port
48
49
Twenty-Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs) at the Port of Hampton Roads 1991 to 2015
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
TEUs increased by 6.5% in 2015. However, loaded TEUs increased by only 1.2%, and empty TEUs increased by 37.7%.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2,128.4
2,549.3
Thou
sand
s
Performance of the Hampton Roads Economy through March 2016
50
51
Performance of Hampton Roads EconomyYTD March 2015 and YTD March 2016
YTD March2015 % Change
Civilian Labor Force* 837,785 825,999 - 1.41
Employment* 790,874 784,820 - 0.77
Unemployment* 46,910 41,180 --12.22
Unemployment Rate* 5.60% 4.99%
Civilian Non-Farm Jobs 749,700 756,567 + 0.92
New Auto Registrations 19,077 22,115 +15.92
Taxable Sales* $3.050B $3.136B + 2.84
YTD March2016
* Data shown here are for YTD February 2015 and YTD February 2016.
52
Performance of Hampton Roads EconomyYTD March 2015 and YTD March 2016
% Change
Hotel Revenue $109.48M $120.53M +10.09
General Cargo Tonnage 5.043M 4.983M - 1.19
TEU Containers 599,511 626,756 + 4.54
Number of 1 Unit Housing Permits 1,003 907 - 9.57
Value of 1 Unit Housing Permits $217.73M $188.66M -13.35
Number of Existing Homes Sold 3,893 4,329 +11.20
Distressed Homes as a Percentage of all Existing Homes Sold
24.04 20.10
Median Price of Existing Homes Sold $187,500 $194,900 + 3.95
YTD March2015
YTD March2016
Forecast for 2016
53
Old Dominion University 2016 Forecast for Hampton Roads MSA
2015 2016 % Change
** Base year is 2009 54
Nominal Gross Regional
Product$93.07B $97.63B
Real Gross Regional Product** $84.38B $85.72B +1.59%
Civilian Employment 765,383 772,578 +0.94%
Unemployment Rate 5.07 % 4.30%
Taxable Sales $21.78B $22.56B +3.60%
Hotel Revenue $746.22M $777.56M +4.20%
General Cargo Tonnage 19.98M 20.52M +2.70%
Housing Permit Value $819.15M $847.00M +3.40%
55
2016 Regional Summary• Look for regional economic growth to be below its half-century annual average
of 3.1 percent and also below that of the nation.
• The port, health-care industries, and tourism are likely to help the region’s moderate economic expansion in 2016
• Single-family home prices in 2016 are likely to continue to increase at a moderate pace.– Inventories, sale volume, and days-on-market are all moving in the right
direction. Months of supply of existing homes are lower than their historic average.
• Lingering distressed home volume remains a concern
56
Any Questions?
Professor Vinod Agarwal Professor Larry “Chip” Filer
Strome College of Business
www.odu.edu/forecasting
58
Average Military CompensationHampton Roads: 2001 to 2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
$92.9$90.1$91.5$ Thousands
Average Military Compensation for the first time since 1969 declined in 2013 by 3.0%; It increased by 1.5% in 2014.
59
Old Dominion University 2015 Hampton Roads Scorecard
Source: Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Figures for calendar year 2015 include predicted values for December 2015. **Employment data for 2014 and 2015 will be revised by U.S. BLS in March /April 2016.
Actual Change 2015*
Predicted Change 2015
Civilian Employment**
0.86% +0.90%
Unemployment Rate**
5.07% 4.90%
Educational ServicesAccommodation and Food Services
Management of Companies and EnterprisesProfessional, Scientific, and Technical Servi
Health Care and Social Assistance
-28,000 -23,000 -18,000 -13,000 -8,000 -3,000 2,000 7,000 12,000 17,000-25,819-13,124
1,06015,863
Change in Employment by Sectors (Private Ownership) in Hampton Roads
Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by Private Ownership and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
From 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2015 (Virginia Portion of Hampton Roads)
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Transportation and Warehousing
Utilities
Finance and Insurance
Administrative and Support and Waste Mgmt
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Retail Trade
Construction
Total, All Industries
Unemployment Rate in U.S., Virginia, and Hampton Roads
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Recession US Virginia Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Annual Civilian Employment (Jobs) in Hampton Roads: 1999 to 2015
650
675
700
725
750
775
800
706.6
720.2730.5733.8737.5
749.9761.0
767.4775.5
767.2
742.2737.1740.2
746.8756.5758.4
765.4
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted.
The HR economy added only 1,900 jobs in 2014. By the end of 2015, even with 7,000 jobs created in 2015, we will still be about 10,000 jobs below our pre- recession level.
In t
hou
san
ds
63
Value of Building Permits for One Unit Family Homes in Hampton Roads: 1991-2015
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
Value of permits increased by 8.0% in 2015; Our forecast was an increase of 3.2%. It is 37% below its peak in 2005
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1,338
836
Mil
lion
s of
$
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Existing
64
Estimated Inventory of Existing Residential Homes as Measured by Active Listings on March 31 of Each Year
Hampton Roads: 1995-2016
Source: Real Estate Information Network Inc. and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Currently: 9,273High: 12,507 (2010)Low: 2,308 (2004)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2007 2010 2015 2016
65
Estimated Inventory of Existing Residential Homes as Measured by Active Listings
Hampton Roads: 2007, 2010, 2015, and 2016
Source: Real Estate Information Network Inc. and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Average ( Jan. 1996 through March 2016) = 7,929
Existing Residential Homes Sold and Average Days on the MarketHampton Roads: 2000-2015
66Source: Real Estate Information Network Inc. and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Days on Market is calculated from the date listed to the date under contract date for existing homes sold.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
17,05818,924
19,86921,421
23,54824,755
22,405
19,154
15,046
15,851
14,70315,818
16,85618,791
18,700
20,595
6761 46
36
27 28
4765
8388 88
10297
8884 84
Homes Sold Average Days on Market
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Active Listing of Distressed Homes (REO & Short Sales)As a Percentage of Total Existing Residential Homes Listings in Hampton Roads
67Source: Real Estate Information Network (REIN) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
March 2016: 14.63%Peak: 29.23% (December 2012)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Number of Distressed Homes Sold(REO & Short Sales)Hampton Roads: June 2008 to March 2016
68Source: Real Estate Information Network (REIN) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
March 2016: 341Peak: 618 (March 2011)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Sales of Distressed Homes (REO & Short Sales)As a Percentage of Total Existing Residential Homes Sold in Hampton Roads
69Source: Real Estate Information Network (REIN) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
March 2016: 18.20%Peak: 42.8% (March 2011)
70
Old Dominion University 2015 Hampton Roads Scorecard
Source: Virginia Department of Taxation, Smith Travel Research and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Figures for calendar year 2015 include predicted values for December 2015.
Actual Change 2015*
Predicted Change 2015
Taxable Sales +3.46% +3.80%
Hotel Revenue +6.46% +4.90%
71
Operating Income/Loss for the Port of Virginia (In Million $) : 2011 to 2015
TimeOperating
Income/Loss
Fiscal Year 2011 -$20.67
Fiscal Year 2012 -$11.32
Fiscal Year 2013 -$11.07
Fiscal Year 2014 -$16.89
Fiscal Year 2015 +$13.61
Source: Virginia Port Authority Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for Fiscal year 2015 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
72
Average TEUs per Container Vessel Call 2011 to 2015
Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
Num
ber o
f TEU
s
2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,158 1,2011,307 1,341 1,410
Average TEUs per Container Vessel Call continues to increase; It increased by 8.9% in 2013, 2.6 % in 2014, and 5.2% in 2015.
73
General Cargo Tonnage at the Port of Hampton Roads: 1991 to 2015
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
General Cargo Tonnage increased by 4.8% in 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
17.7319.98
Mill
ion
s o
f T
on
s
74
Movement of Containers at the Port of Hampton Roads by Type of Transportation: 2011 to 2015
Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
Mill
ions
of C
onta
iner
s
2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.101.21 1.27
1.37 1.45
RailBarge & TruckTOTAL
Percent of containers moved by rail has gradually increased from 31.9% in 2012 to 32.8% in 2015.
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