Presented By: Nelson B. Heller, PhD
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Presented By: Nelson B. Heller, PhD The Heller Reports, a QED Co. September 16, 2008 View from the Catbird Seat A Glimpse of the Next 20 Years
Transcript of Presented By: Nelson B. Heller, PhD
Presented By:
Nelson B. Heller, PhDThe Heller Reports, a QED Co.
September 16, 2008
View from the Catbird Seat
A Glimpse of the Next 20 Years
Tomorrow’s Big Ideas
• Digital Mobility• Distance Learning • Platform wars: next generation
portals• OS/Web 2.0 business models• Energy and Climate: Business
opportunities
Digital mobility, 1989…
… and today
Kindle e-Book Reader
Kindle – Smart and Wireless
• Free EV-DO connectivity• 1-click wireless purchasing• 200-600 book capacity• Newspapers, blogs, web, search• Dictionary, notes, bookmarks,
clippings, search• Low power consumption
E-Ink/ePaper Display Technology
Is Kindle <-> books as iPod <-> media?
• Significant but not explosive sales• Bezos keynote at Book Expo
America• But it’s not…
• Color• Very interactive• …a Netbook
Distance Learning <-> Online Learning
• US K-12 market trends • Accelerating internationally• US K-12 acquisition flurry • Market drivers • Blended/Hybrid Learning• implications
US K-12 DL/OL
• $50 mil/yr, growing at 30%• 42 states w significant OL pgms• 26 state-wide/state-led VS• 2014: 10% HS courses OL• 2019: 50% HS courses OL• 72% of DL districts expanding OL
in coming year
Accelerating internationally
• South Korea • European Union• Mexico • Singapore• India • China
US K-12 acquisition flurry
• GlobalScholar.com (Knowledge Universe/Ignition Partners)
• Insight Schools (Apollo Group/U of Phoenix)
• Advanced Academics (DeVry)• U of Miami HS (Kaplan) • eCollege/eClassroom (Pearson)• Penn Foster (The Wright Group)
K-12 Market drivers
• ADA, counter-recessionary• Credit recovery eclipsing AP• Legislators/public motivated • "Real estate leverage"/scalability• Efficiency/Effectiveness• "Disrupting Class": K-12 game
changer
Blended/Hybrid Learning
• Digital classrooms in B/M facilities• Mainstream – not alternative -
opportunity• Flexnet, "the online education with
class“ (U of Phoenix)
implications for the K-12 market
• Books -> digital resources• Learning modules• LMS/CMS• Not just anytime, anywhere: its
any way too• Content aggregation no longer a
viable business model
Barriers
• Teachers and Unions• Shortage of qualified instructors• ADA funding competition• Bandwidth• Locally authored curricula• Exam proctoring
Platform wars: next generation portals
• Your future home?• Escalating capabilities spectrum• Growing list of players
• Veterans• Newbies
• Business implications
Blackboard K-12
VIP Tone’s EduTone Xchange
Capabilities spectrum
• Single sign-on and user authentication
• SaaS or local• Collaboration, communication,
social networking• Content archives, lockers, e-
portfolios• Rich multimedia
Capabilities - more
• Scheduling• Courseware authoring• Assessment• Off-line functionality• Portable desktops• Students, educators, parents• API friendly• 3rd party platform (license and financial
management)
Veteran players
• Blackboard• Desire2Learn• Angel Learning• eClassroom• LearningStation• Moodle• Sakai
Newbies
• Follett Digital Classroom• IQ-ity• Agilix's GoCourse• Etech's Studywiz Spark• VIP Tone• Editure's MySuite • Drupal
Platform wars: business implications
• Compatibility• Pedagogy• Software architecture
• Business models• Mix’n’match• Platform intermediation• Support
• Auditing
OS/Web 2.0 business models
• Open Content: Failure to Thrive• MITE's Nat'l Repository of Online
Courses (NROC)• Open API opportunities: Facebook• EdNET's LinkedIn Social Network
Open Content: Failure to Thrive
• Quality• Coverage• Standardization• Alignment• Marketing/sales• Customer service, support• PD
Monterey Institute for Technology and Education
National Repository of Online Courses (NROC)
• Open Educational Resource (OER)• Courses contributed by academic
institutions• Editorial investment • Income from Institutions• Two parallel value propositions
Open API opportunities
• Facebook• Cramster.com• Blackboard.com• SuperCool School
Cramster.com/FB
Blackboard.com/FB
Bb sync FB User Posts
SuperCool School/FB
EdNET's LinkedIn Social Network
EdNET Social Network
Energy and Climate: Business opportunities
Finding Opportunities
• Virtualization• Travel, emission costs -> DL• Sustainability Challenge• Craig Michaels' "The Sustainable
Operations Summit"• Solar Installation Part of
University's Commitment
Thanks…
• The last 20 years have been a real privilege
• The future is ours, our children’s, their children’s…
• The next 20 years are crucial -- and promising -- thanks in advance
Contact Info
Nelson B. Heller, PhDPresident, The Heller Reports, a QED Company
Anne WujcikManaging Editor and Research Principal
The Heller Reports/QED(773) 594-9392
http://HellerReports.com
