Presented by: Jehanwash kareem Noman Saleem Decision making Module 7  Framing  Heuristics...

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Transcript of Presented by: Jehanwash kareem Noman Saleem Decision making Module 7  Framing  Heuristics...

DECISION MAKINGDecision making
Module 7
Escalation of commitment
Illusion of control
Programmed decision making
The rational model
The administrative model
The practical model
The conflict model
General decision making styles
Decision making
“Decision making per se is the act of choosing one alternative
From among a set of alternatives”
Griffin
The demands of situation”
From among several”
Analyzing the options and making determinations, or
Decisions, about specific organizational goals and course
Of action”
Programmed vs. non programmed decisions
Clear, specific
Types of managerial decisions
Types of decisions and levels of management
Both structured and
Decision making under certainty
Decision making under risk
Decision making under uncertainty
Capacity planning problem
Rational model
Evaluation of alternatives
Retain for further
Bases from selecting from among the alternatives courses
Experimentation
Research &
Analysis
Choice
Made
Reliance
Why information is incomplete?
Practical model
Based on available information
The garbage can model of organizational decision making
Solutions
Participants
Choice
Opportunities
Problems
Solutions
Participants
Choice
Opportunities
Problems
B
A
Organizational factors.
Decision making styles
Tolerance for ambiguity
Decision making styles & characteristics
Group decision making
Group polarization
Advantages and disadvantages of group decision making
The Delphi technique
Advantages and disadvantages of group decision making
Domination by
Vocal few
The groupthink process
Insulation of group from the opinion of expert.
Groupthink symptoms.
Devil’s advocacy & dialectical inquiry
Dialectical inquiry
Prescriptions for prevention of groupthink
Periodically break the group into subgroups to
discuss the issues
Individual prescriptions
Process prescriptions
Be impartial: do not state preferences.
Assign the devil’s advocate role to at least one member
Use outside experts to challenge the group
Be open to dissenting points of view
Leader prescriptions
Organizational prescriptions
Issue.
Prevention techniques.
Report back to group
Delphi technique
The nominal group technique (NGT)
A small group
Written on chart
Brainstorming
2
Outline the problem
The alternatives/ideas on
Cons of ideas/alternatives