Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011
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Transcript of Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011
Presented at:
The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
24 March 2011
Tunisia Predicted: Demography and the Probability of Liberal Democracy
in the Greater Middle East
Richard Cincotta
Consultant on Political Demography, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Demographer-in-residenceThe Stimson Center
Thanks to:
• National Intelligence Council Long Range Analysis Unit
• Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change & Security Program.
• The Stimson Center
Four democracy questions
• Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”?
• Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable?
• Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization?
• What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization?
Data: UN Population Division, 2009
Year (5-yr period)
Tunisia
Egypt
Syria
Algeria
Jordan
Transitional Population age structures
2005
Data: UN Population Division, 2009
Cincotta, 2009
DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2009
Four categories: four individual countries
Hobbesian Bargain Hypothesis:
Elites
CitizenryPolitical rights
Civil liberties
Security
Youth Bulge Hypothesis:
Effort needed to recruit for political violence
Low amount of effort needed
High amount of effort needed
Median Age (Years)
15 25 35 45 55
Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature
Authoritarianism Liberalization
Net
Benefits
Median Age (Years)
15 25 35 45 55
Likelihood
Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature
Violent
intra-state conflict Liberal democracy
Transitional Population age structures
2005
Data: UN Population Division, 2009
Zone of Vulnerability:
• high risk of political violence
• high risk of losing liberal democracy
Prop
ortio
n
Libe
ral d
emoc
raci
es
Proportion of liberal democracies in age-structural categories
Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature
Nil set
Cincotta & Doces, 2011
Liberal democracy and age-structural youthfulness
in 5 world regions, 1975-2005
Data: UN Population Division, 2009
Youth bulges and the path to liberal democracy: 8 selected states
Cincotta, 2009
Some anecdotal evidence of rises as youth bulge declines.
Four democracy questions
• Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”?
• States with youthful populations have a lower probability of rising to and remaining a liberal democracy
• Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable?
• States with mature populations typically have stable liberal democracies.
• Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization?
• Few developing countries are moving through the “sweet spot” of their age structural transition (median age ~26 to 35 years)
• What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization?
• Don’t have high expectations for democracy when age structures are young.