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Autonomous Robots Outlook

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Road to robot nirvana littered with ‘zombies’

The walking dead—kept alive by grant money, and like zombies, they eat brains

• Public support Blurred vision of market, useless robots

• Engineering glasses, tech-focused view Ideas that fail to excite, disrupt, or fulfill demand

Unrealistic solutions; inability to disrupt

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Technological hurdles

Challenges to develop service robotics

• Autonomous safe navigation

• Manipulate and physically interact with real world

• Perceive in unstructured environments (3d sensing)

• Human-robot interaction becoming commonplace

• Networks of robots, sensors and users

• Costs

All overcome within the past three years

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Service Robot/ Robotech Acquisitions

M&As of AMR, CoBot, and other robotech makers

• Kuka acquires Swisslog logistics and pharmaceutical robots

• Amazon acquires Kiva logistics robots

• Google acquires robotics co’s in many fields humanoids, vision, AI, home automation, etc

• Apple acquires Primesense 3D sensing--3d printer app

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Notable robotics investments in 2014

Investments in robotics players

2014: Qualcomm invests in neuroscience startup Brain Corp

2014: Intel Capital invests in PrecisonHawk; small drone data delivery

2014: Dyson invests USD8.2mn in robotics vision lab

2014: Blue River Technology reaps USD10mn for Lettuce Bot

2014: AI firm arago AG receives USD55mn investment

2014: 4moms awarded USD41mn in funding

2014: Mitsui invests USD3mn in Aethon, augmenting USD4mn from 2012

2014: Highland Capital Partners, Sigma Prime Ventures, CRV, GE Ventures,

Goldman Sachs invest USD27mn in Rethink Robotics

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US investments in robotics in 2014

2011 2012 2013 2014Venture investments, total (USD mn)

61,300 52,700 54,600 86,600

Venture investments in robotics (USD mn)

157 196 235 341Source: Pregin, HMC Investment Securities 2014

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World spending on robotic systems (USD bn), 2000 -2025

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Sales growth estimates

Growth areas

• Autonomous cars USD3.6bn/year by 2019

• Rehabilitation robots USD43.3mn in 2014 to USD1.8bn by 2020

• Agricultural robots USD817mn in 2013 to USD16.3bn by 2020

• Surgical robots USD32.2bn in 2012 to USD19.96bn by 2019

• Elderly and health care robots USD87bn by 2019

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First Wave versus Second Wave Robots

First wave Second wave

Expensive: (large batches for ROI (ind.

bots)

Dangerous: caged, away from humans

Inflexible (fixed or limited functions)

Dumb: Simple repeated tasks

Disconnected: proprietary, closed

Inexpensive: lower-val. operations (var.

prod)

Safe: (uncaged, autonomous mobility)

Flexible: train/repurpose (no engineers)

Intelligent: learn and adjusts to

environment

Connected: leverages IoT; alone or in

groups

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Long-term Opportunities

Rapid technological progress and social changes driving development

• Demographics Aging populations, worker shortages, political considerations

• Financial Public budget shortfalls; private cost-cutting initiatives; profit growth

Rising labor costs/ shortages/ falling robot costs

• Tech/ Hardware & Software Smartphone component sharing, etc, lower costs

ROS as industry standard accelerating development

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Computer vs. Robotics Evolution I

Same but Different

• Product: Mainframe, mini/ Industrial vs. PCs/smart dev/ Service

• User: Gov’t/ Corp. vs. SME & consumer

• Business model : Purchase vs. Service

• Deployment: Computerization vs. Robotization

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Computer versus Robotics Evolution II

ROS Opens Floodgates to Accelerated Development

• Kills Microsoft’s attempt to dominate robotics software market,

spurring growth Superior technology and faster interaction by developers

• Open-source approach and global collaboration accelerating

development Development challenges surmounted more quickly

• Challenges collaboratively solved empowers devs to focus on

specialized code Rapid prototyping, new applications/markets, new to robotics

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Defense dominated by US gov’t, high barrier to entry

Beyond defense, three growth areas

• Agriculture UAVs, UGVs, autonomous vehicles, CoBots, IoT enabled frameworks

• Logistics CoBots, indoor and outdoor systems, etc

• Autonomous vehicles Fully/partial autonomy, autonomic enhancements

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Area I: Logistics

Delivering greater efficiency

• Quell rising labor costs

• Fulfill tasks requiring immense precision and immaculate timing

• Simplify complex supply chains and connect networks

Logistics and material handling robot marketplace to reach USD31bn by

2020

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Aethon/ Logistics I

TUG

• Focus on hospitals; deployed in more than 120 in the US alone

• 50k deliveries/week; travelled over 1mn miles

• ~450 units produced since 2004

• USD25k-USD100k/unit, depending on configuration

• USD1,000-USD2,000/mo RAAS, depending on configuration

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Aethon/ Logistics II

Key technologies

• Beaconless navigation– stores map of the facility

• Connected to Command Center via WiFi to collect orders

• On-board sensors scan the environment

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Yujin Robot/ Logistics

GoCart • d-SLAM navigation (dome simultaneous localization and mapping)

• Camera-based system; lower cost than lasers, more flexible

• ROCON platform (leverage existing IoT environments)

• Focus on elderly care meal transport

• Swarm-enabled platform

• Gastronorm-compliant meal transport trays

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Area II: Agricultural robotics January, 2015

Fields of opportunity

• Global population to surpass 9bn by 2050; farms must increase production by 25%

• Shortages of water, fertilizer, and arable land to exacerbate the problem

• Agricultural labor supply rapidly decreasing in the developed world

Global ag robot market to grow from USD880mn

in 2013 to USD16.3bn in 2020

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PrecisionHawk / Agriculture I January, 2015

Lancaster Platform UAV

• 3D terrain mapping, plant height, weed detection, plant count, crop health, etc

• Highly scalable; multiple sensor choices

• RaaS model, automated data processing in real time

• Deployed in multiple industries beyond agriculture

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PrecisionHawk / Agriculture II January, 2015

Key technologies

• Platform• Small and light UAV

• Wide range of sensors• Visual

• Thermal

• LiDAR

• Multispectral

• Custom

Real-time data processing and availability in computer cloud

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Area III: Autonomous vehicles January, 2015

The race is on

Category Value

Semi-autonomous passenger car market USD21.4bn by 2018/ CAGR of 15.08%

Robot car/ truck commercial autonomous car mkt

USD3.6bn by 2019

Driverless car market size forecast 20-30mn units in 2025-2030

Autonomous driving market USD60bn in 2030Source: eetimes

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Autonomous Solutions (ASI) / Autonomous vehicles I January, 2015

Vendor-independent vehicle automation

systems

• Proven Customers include Anglo American LAPD, Ford, USAF

• Flexible Agriculture, mining, auto, gov’t , and manufacturing

• Economical Lower-cost and easier to integrate autonomous solution

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Autonomous Solutions / Autonomous vehicles II January, 2015

Key technologies

• Obstacle detection and avoidance

systems

• Remote control, teleop, and full

automation kits

• Unmanned command and control

solution

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Unmanned Solution / Autonomous vehicles I January, 2015

Vendor independent vehicle automation systems

• Comprehensive• UGV, UUV, UAV, integrated system design

• Proven• System operates on all platforms

• Superior view of automation landscae• Offers the automatous ‘glue’ to all systems

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