Presentation Title Slide - up.com€¦ · Union Pacific Coal Market Profile $2.6 Billion Revenue as...
Transcript of Presentation Title Slide - up.com€¦ · Union Pacific Coal Market Profile $2.6 Billion Revenue as...
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Energy
Doug Glass, VP & General Manager Energy
November 4, 2010
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Union Pacific Coal Market Profile$2.6 Billion Revenue as of 9/30/10
Southern Powder
River Basin (SPRB)
75%
Colorado/ Utah18%
Northern Powder
River Basin3%
Illinois1%
Coke1%
Southern Wyoming
1%
Other1%
Origin Mix(% of Revenue)
South42%
East23%
Industrial8%
Midwest22%
West5%
Key End-Use Markets(% of Revenue)
UP Energy Line Density Map*
*Lane density based on carloadings. Line thickness depicts traffic density.
Diverse
Western Coal Deposits
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3
UP Coal Network
Western Coal Deposits
Interchange / Gateway
Union Pacific Coal Market Profile$2.6 Billion Revenue as of 9/30/10
• Diverse
• Flexible
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UP Coal Network
Western Coal Deposits
Interchange / Gateway
Water Terminal
Union Pacific Coal Market Profile$2.6 Billion Revenue as of 9/30/10
• Diverse
• Flexible
• Water Routes
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• Diverse
• Flexible
• Water Routes
• Large Network
Western Coal Deposits
SPRB Coal Utility Plant
Union Pacific Coal Market Profile$2.6 Billion Revenue as of 9/30/10
UP Coal Network
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UP Coal Network
Western Coal Deposits
Other Coal Utility Plant
• Diverse
• Flexible
• Water Routes
• Large Network
• Broad Products
Union Pacific Coal Market Profile$2.6 Billion Revenue as of 9/30/10
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5-Year Market Outlook
• Emission Regulations
• Low Carbon Future
• New Business
• Price
• New Power Plants
• Economic Recovery / Growth
• Emerging Market
• Niche Markets
Industry Risks
UP Opportunities
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Coal Under Attack
• Regulations
– Federal
– Regional
– State
• Renewable Energy
Standards
• Natural Gas
Substitution
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Serving the Low Risk Power Plants
Only 7% of UP’s Coal Revenue Falls into the Highest Risk Quartile
• Based on National Data
Comparing Plant Size,
Carbon Intensity and Cost
*Company estimates as to the probability that a power plant could shut down in the face of significant future investments in scrubbers and SCR's.
Plant
Categories *
High Risk
Quartile
Medium-High
Risk Quartile
Medium-Low
Risk Quartile
Low Risk
Quartile
7%
93%
• High Carbon
• High Cost / Mwh
• Small Plant
• Low Carbon
• Low Cost / Mwh
• Large Plant
UP Coal
Revenue
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The Business Case for Coal is Still Strong
Coal Natural Gas
Nuclear
HydroOther
Renewables
Wind
Oil
2009 Shares of Electricity Generation-U.S.*
*Source: EIA
• Provides 45% of Electricity Generation
• Stable Prices
• Resource Abundant
• Lowest Cost Fossil Fuel
Coal
• Historic Price Volatility
• Breakeven with Coal at $3.00 - $4.00 Mbtu
• Industry Return Threshold of ~$5.00 Mbtu
Natural Gas
• Long Construction Time Frame
• Potentially High Construction Costs
Nuclear
• Government Subsidies Required
• Transmission Problems
Wind
When economy comes back, pressure will
be on all sources of electrical power
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More Business, More Price
Powder
River
Basin
• All Remaining Legacy Business
To Be Re-Priced by 1/1/2015
• Fuel Surcharge
• Contract Escalators
• 9 Million Tons
• Offers Customer Greater
Productivity Than SPRB Average
– +4% train tonnage
– ~6 additional cars per train
• Efficient Routing / Faster Service
Re-Priced
60%
Remaining
Legacy
40%
As of 10/1/2010
Price ImprovementNew Business
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New Business Opportunities
13 New Coal-Fired Units• 2 in Last 12 Months
• 1 More by November
• 3 Under Construction
• 1 Converting from Truck
to Rail
• 3 in Development
• 3 Clean Coal Projects
Coal Deposits
Truck Conversion
Under Construction
Recently Completed
In Development
Clean Coal Development
*From new units under construction
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3.0
5.5 6.8
-
3.0
9.0
Estimated Incremental Annual Tons*(In Millions)
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13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2009 2010 Normal
Days
Economic RecoveryPoised for Growth
• No Inventory Overhang
• Available Capacity to
Grow
SPRB Inventory U.S. Electricity Consumption (Year-Over-Year % Change)
• Electricity Demand
Picking Up
• Expected 5-Year
Average GDP of 2.8%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Residential Commercial Industrial
Jan
2009Sep
2010
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Emerging Market: ExportsGlobal Market for Western U.S. Coal
Current / Potential Export Coal Flows
Western Coal Deposits
Water Terminal
Growing International
Market - 100 Million
Annual Tons
Asia Consuming
South African and
Australian Coal
Coal Exporting
Capability Likely To Be
Added at PNW Ports
Potential for Greater
Throughput at
Long Beach
Other Port Facilities
Interested in Coal
Exports
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15
Niche Market Opportunities
*Source: EIA
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7
9
11
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2000 2005 2010E
Central Appalachian Mines Western Mines
Regional Coal Production* (Quadrillion Btu)
Eastern Utility Conversion to Western Coal
• 500 Million Ton Market
• Central Appalachian Coal Basin Declining
• Mountaintop Mining Restrictions
Mexico Opportunities
• Coal Represents 5% of Electric Power
• 7 Million Tons of Coal Imported Today
• Opportunity for Oil-Based Power Converting to Coal
Markets Served by Industrial Energy
• 10 Million Ton Market
• Winning New Business in Agriculture and Mexico
• Great Upside on Cement Industry
Industrial Energy
End-Use Markets
Cement
19%Export
14%
Agriculture
23%
Metals
13%
Chemicals
11%
Energy
10%
Other
10%
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Delivering on Our Value Proposition
2006 2007 2008 2009 Sept YTD 2010
20.8 20.3
21.9
25.724.8Good
2006 2007 2008 2009 Sept YTD 2010
15,060
15,325 15,486
15,687 15,706
Tons Per Train
Good
AAR Coal Train Velocity (MPH)
2006 2007 2008 2009 Sept YTD 2010
8.68.8
8.3
6.76.3
Good
Round Trip Cycle Time (Days)
• Increased Train
Productivity
• Greater Speed and
Service
• Asset Utilization
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Energy Summary & Outlook
2006 2007 2008 2009 Sept YTD 2010
67
83
8992 93
Energy Customer Satisfaction
More Business, More Price
New Coal-Fired Units
Clean Coal Plant Development
Delivering Value to Customers
Economic Recovery
Yield Expansion
Western Export Opportunities
Volume Outlook: Economy + +