SOUTH NEPEAN

Capacity Planning

By Margaret Flores P.Eng

AGENDA

South Nepean Region Overview

– South Nepean Stations

– Historical area loading

HOL Planning Criteria

– Station Planning

– Feeder Planning

Expected Growth

– Major developments

– Expected load growth

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REGION OVERVIEW –SOUTH NEPEAN STATIONS

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South Stations

REGION OVERVIEW –STATIONS SUPPLY AREAS

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REGION OVERVIEW- FEEDER ROUTING

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REGION OVERVIEW- HISTORICAL LOADING

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0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Lo

ad

(M

W)

Actual

Weather Corrected (1 in 10 Year)

Average Growth

HOL PLANNING CRITERIA – STATION PLANNING

Stations Rated Capacity

– Sum of the top rating of all transformers within the substation

Station Planning Capacity

– N-1 Contingency: Loss of the largest transformer within a substation

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HOL PLANNING CRITERIA – STATION PLANNING

Fallowfield Station

Rated Capacity: 52MW

Planning Capacity: 26MW

Load: 28MW

Longfields Station

Rated Capacity: 28MW

Planning Capacity: 14MW

Load: 15MW

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HOL PLANNING CRITERIA- FEEDER PLANNING

Feeders Rated Capacity

– Based on the egress cable 8 hour loading limit.

Feeders Planning Capacity

– Takes these three factors into consideration:

• Coordination with protection settings

• Feeder cold load pick up ability

• Cable overload capability

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Feeder Load (A)

Plan Rate

FAL01 127 41%

FAL02 270 87%

FAL03 264 85%

FAL04 0 0%

210F1 223 72%

210F2 123 40%

7F1 230 74%

7F2 344 111%

CAPACITY ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

An average annual load growth rate is calculated using the stations’ historic load levels

Adjustments are made to the forecast to account for known City of Ottawa and developer plans, forecasted load transfers and other local events

Estimated loads:

– Residential = 1.8kW/unit or 2.3 kW/unit

– Commercial= 75.38W/m2

– Business Park= 18MW/km2

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LOAD GROWTH AREAS

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EXPECTED GROWTH –NEPEAN TOWN CENTRE

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Table - Land Use Statistics Phase

Retail Gross

Floor Area (m2)

Office Gross Floor

Area (m2)

# of Dwelling

Units

Expected Load (MVA)

Phase 1 - Initial 78,000 1,000 0 6.62

Phase 2 - Interim Built Out

208,250 158,250 7,250 45.20

Phase 3 - Ultimate Build Out

217,000 350,500 11,050 69.63

Green

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EXPECTED GROWTH-STRANDHERD BUSINESS PARK

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Area Expected Load

2 km2 36 MW

EXPECTED GROWTH-BARRHAVEN SOUTH COMMUNITY DESIGN PLAN

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Units Estimated Load (MW)

Residential 4170 9

Schools 8 5.4

EXPECTED GROWTH-BARRHAVEN SOUTH URBAN EXPANSION

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Area Expected Load

2.8 km2 9 MW

EXPECTED GROWTH- LONGFIELDS COMMUNITY PLANS

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136 units & 19 apt bldgs 5.6MW

126 units & 4 apt buildings

650kW

220 units and 2 apt buildings

777kW

186 units 430kW

283 units 653kW

Longfields Station –Campanale Homes

Jock River Farms

Larco Longfields

Mattino Developments

Fieldstone Community

EXPECTED GROWTH- FORECASTED LOAD

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0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

Lo

ad

(M

W)

Sources of Growth Expected Development

Tartan Homes Fallowfield Strandherd Business Park Richcraft Longfields Nepean Town Centre

Monarch Homes Mattino Development Longfield New Residential Longfields Commercial

Larco Longfields Jock River Farms Barrhaven South Expansion Barrhaven South

Campanale Homes

FORECASTED LOAD FOR SOUTH NEPEAN

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0

50

100

150

2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031

MW

Current Rating High Growth Forecast Planning Forecast

CONCLUSION

Load in the South Nepean area has almost double since 2002.

Approximately 70 MW of additional load is expected in the next 20 years.

There is a need for additional capacity in the South Nepean area.

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THANK YOU