Presentation on HR Projection

Seminar on Sharing of Study Report

on

Organized byCouncil for Technical Education and Vocational Training

Research and Information Division Sanothimi, Bhaktapur

National Skilled Human Resource Projection in

Health and Engineering Professions

Welcome to You Allin

Outline

Objectives

Limitations

Engineering Sector

Methodology

Findings

Health Sector

Methodology

Findings

Conclusion

3

Objective of the Study

The purpose of the study is to analyze demand of technical human resources both in public and private sectors of Nepalese economy and also figure out the potential employment sectors for such technical human resources.

The specific objectives of the study are to identify the gaps between the available human resources and actual need of

labour market; find out the measures to bridge such gaps, and make future projection on demand of middle level technical human resources

in engineering and health sectors .

CTEVT, Research and Information Division

Limitations

Lack of time and budget for labour market survey;

Based on economic trends rather than the needs of employer and

employment sectors,

Limited data was collected from field survey, so study is mainly

based on desk analysis,

limited data was available even from secondary sources;

Global labour Market Analysis is excluded;


5

Theory and Assumptions.

Saturation Level of Labour Market

• Labour Market Survey

• Employment Status

• Flow of Student in the Running Program

Employment Growth

• Directly Proportional to GDP growth

• Coefficient of Elasticity Varies

• (Jobless Growth may be the problems in some Case)

GDP Growth Rate

• Projected GDP Growth rate

• Three Years Plan Document

• Approach Paper for Graduation from LDC

7

Methodology

Factors considered while making projection:

Present status regarding the quality and quantity of infrastructure development ;

Past trends of sector wise economic growth with special focus on the potential

employment sectors of TVET programs (TSLC and Diploma Level Graduates);

The relationship between GDP growth and employment growth as a coefficient of

employment elasticity (Nepalese as well as global context)

The flow of students in the presently running program (taken as a proxy of the

demand of the labour market.)

The future plan proposed for the corresponding sectors of Nepalese Economy.


8

Economic Growth Rate

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

2011

/12

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

0.2

3.84.4

3.23.7

2.8

5.8

3.94.3

3.84.6

-5.3

0

2.22.6

22.6

-0.9

-2.8

1.2

2.29

1.28

GDP in Totality Linear (GDP in Totality)Manufacturing Linear (Manufacturing)

9

Economic Growth Rate

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

11.4

19

4.1 4 4

13

1.1

-3.4

5.4

-0.46

7.39

1.85

6.4

2.1-0.3

2.9

7.7

2.55.1

1

6.174.79

0.221.57

Electricity, Gas and Water Linear (Electricity, Gas and Water)Linear (Electricity, Gas and Water) ConstructionLinear (Construction)


10

Present Status


• The score of Nepal in availability of scientists and engineers is 3.5 out of 7 which ranked Nepal 108th position among the 134 countries surveyed. (WEF, 2013)

• The score given in Nepal in quality of infrastructure is 1.8 and ranked Nepal in 130th position among the 134 countries surveyed (WEF, 2013)

• 51.4% Nepalese have accessed to paved road and 66.2% to reach nearest bus stop within the reach of 30 minutes (NLSS, 2011)

• 54.4% of agricultural land is irrigated (NLSS)

11

Future Plan and Targets

The Thirteen Three Years Plan 2013/14-15/16 has targeted to achieve the growth rate of

Construction: 5.5%Gas, Electricity and Water: 8.2%Industry, Mining and Quarrying: 4.7% GDP in Totality 6.0%Employment Growth Rate 3.2%


12Other Physical Targets

GoN has aimed to expand road transportation by 3000 km and upgrade the status of 2100 km existing roads,

310 new bridges are targeted to construct, Plan to cover all districts headquarters with road networks, Expansion of irrigated land by 1,76,275 hectors, Construction of 400 km of transmission line, Expansion of electricity facilities to 3000 new villages and increasing the

share of population that have accessed to electricity facility from 67.32% to 87%.

16 municipalities are aimed to be developed which benefits 1.2 million population. In addition to this, 10 new cities will be developed to make enough residences for 1 million population.


13

Contd.

Construction of 3250 kilometer of agricultural road is targeted, A total of 250,00,000 labour-day employment will be generated. The contribution of electricity in the total energy consumption, which

was 1.82% in 2005, is projected to reach 3% in 2015 and 17% in 2030.

Lack of middle level technical human resources among others as the main bottleneck to construct hydropower projects as well as the extension of transmission lines.

CTEVT is also indicated as a responsible agency to supply the middle level technical human resources.

Source: Thirteen TYP 2013/14-15/16, Twenty Years Hydro Power Development Plan 200


14Contd.

In 2008, only 3.1% of Nepalese had computers. As per the Nepal Living Standard Survey, 43% of households have accessed the internet service within the reach of 30 minutes

The proportion of population with access to telephone was 1% in 1995/96 which was increased to 6.1% in 2006 and 12.5 % in 2010/11.


Employment Elasticity of Output Growth

Employment elasticity of output growth is the main basis to make the guidelines of projection Boltho and Glyn (1995) found elasticity of employment with

respect to output growth in the order of 0.5 to 0.6 for a set of OECD countries.

Padalino and Vivarelli (1997) found significant differences in employment elasticity between different countries, with an elasticity of approximately 0.47 for the United States, 0.24 for Austria and 0.76 for Spain.

Walterskirchen (1999) indicated strong positive relationship between employment and economic growth with employment elasticity for EU of 0.65 over the period 1988-1998.

16

Employment Elasticity of Output Growth


Empl

oym

ent G

rowt

h

GDP Growth

3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.52.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

Series1; 2.9

3.2

3

3.6

SN Name of Program

Saturation Level of Labour Market

Targeted Sectorial growth

Projected Employm

ent Growth

Reference of Targeted Growth Rate

Basis of

projection

1 DCE Under Supplied and required 10% additional number

5.53.46

Construction +0.361 + 3.31, where y = employment growth rate and x = output growth rate

2 DEE Saturated up to 2016 8.2 5.09 Electricity Gas and Water

3 DME Under Supplied and required 10% additional number

4.73.17

Industry, Mining and Querying

4 Dlex Saturated up to 2018 8.4 5.25 GDP in totality

5 DAR Saturated up to 2020 5.5 3.46 Construction Sector

6 DCom Saturated up to 2018 6.0 3.68 GDP in totality

7 DIT Saturated Till Date 6.0 3.68 GDP in totality

8 D S E Saturated Till Date 5.5 3.46 ConstructionTSLC Level 1 Civil Saturated up to 2015 5.5 3.46 Construction Sector of TYP

2013/14-15/162 JCT Saturated up to 2017 6.0 3.68 GDP in totality

3 Electrical

Saturated up to 2016 8.2 5.09 Electricity Gas and Water

4 Mechanical

Under Supplied and required 10% additional number

4.73.17

Industry, Mining and Querying

5 AMIN Saturated up to 2015 5.5

3.46

Construction Sector

18Projection Table

SN Name of ProgramNumber of Additional Human Resources in the academic year

2013Present 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

1 Diploma in Civil Engineering 868 924 980 980 980 1036 1036 1036 1120 1120 1176

2 Diploma in Mechanical Engineering 108 108 108 144 144 144 180 180 180 216 216

3 Diploma in Computer Engineering 476 476 476 476 476 476 504 504 532 532 560

4 Diploma in Electrical Engineering 310 310 310 310 341 341 341 372 434 434 465

5 Diploma in Electronics Engineering 210 210 210 210 210 210 231 231 252 252 252

6 Diploma in Architecture Engineering 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 140 140 140

7 Diploma in Information Technology 46 46 138 138 230 230 230 322 322 322 322

8 Diploma in Survey Engineering 46 46 138 184 184 184 230 230 230 230 230

TSLC Level Programs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 Civil Sub-overseer 468 468 468 486 504 522 540 540 558 576 594

2 Mechanical Sub-overseer 120 120 120 120 120 120 144 144 144 144 144

3 Electrical Sub-overseer 225 225 225 225 240 240 255 270 285 285 3004 Basic Surveying 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 80 80 80 80

5 Junior Computer Technicians 126 126 126 126 140 140 140 154 168 168 168CTEVT, Research and Information Division


19

Health Sector

Theory & Assumption

Nursing Professionals

• Standard Ratio (need based approach)

• Ratio depends upon level of development

• HDI is considered as proxy of level of development

Pharmaceutical

Professionals

• Depends upon the number of physicians

• Physicians/pharmacists ratio is more or less similar in every contexts

• The projected number of nursing professionals & standard ratio is used

Other Health Professionals

• Proportion in health service is equal to proportion of nations' need

21

Methodology

Need based Approach is adopted by the help of (desired) standard ratio of density of Nursing professionals,

Desired density of nursing professionals is derived as per the development level of the country,

Human Development Index is referred as the proxy of development level of the country

Projection was made under two different situation-normal & preferred, Normal situation is assumed the continuation of last four years trend, Preferred situation assumes the target of graduation from LDC by 2022. Human Development Level is regressed with the density of Nursing

professionals with the data of various countries,

22

Cont.

Needs of pharmaceutical professional is derived aggregating the ratio with physicians taking the data of 26 countries over time.

Needs of other health professionals are speculated based on the ratio of corresponding professionals in the health service of government of Nepal.

The density of Nursing professional/1000 population in Nepal is 1.84, (since, 50570 are the registered nurses in 7 August, 2014 and the corresponding number of population is 27560000 )

WHO has established a norms of 23 doctor and nurses /10000 population for achieving health related MDGs.

The provisions of 1 doctor, 3 nurses and 2 beds per 1000 population is also considered as essential provisions (Thamma Rao, Human Resources for Universal Health Coverages)


23

HDI and Graduation Level

During the past four decades only four countries were graduated to developing countries. These counties with their corresponding value of HDI in the year 2013 is

Botswana (1994) .683

Cape Verde (2007) .636

Maldives (2011) .698

Samoa (2014) .694

The following two countries were scheduled to be graduated by 2017.

Equatorial Guinea .556

Vanuatu .683

The HDI value of Nepal is .463

Target of Current TYP .508

Projected HDI for 2022 .652



24

Intermediate Findings

Although, HDI is not taken as parameter for graduating to developing country, the approximate value of HDI at the point of graduation to developing country is over 0.600.

The desired ratio between physician/pharmaceutical personnel is derived 4.11 using cases of 26 counties

The human development index is projected to reach 0.568 under the normal situation and .652 under the preferred situation by 2022

The total population will be reached 3.08 million by 2023

25

HDI and Graduation Level

During the past four decades only four countries were graduated to developing countries. These counties with their corresponding value of HDI in the year 2013 is

Botswana (1994) .683

Cape Verde (2007) .636

Maldives (2011) .698

Samoa (2014) .694

The following two countries were scheduled to be graduated by 2017.

Equatorial Guinea .556

Vanuatu .683

The HDI value of Nepal is .463

Target of Current TYP .508

Projected HDI for 2022 .652


26

Nursing Personnel/ HDI

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

f(x) = 0.0334521594264357 exp( 6.54109189150538 x )R² = 0.886776768853661

Dens

ity o

f Nur

sing/

1000

Pop

ulat

ion

HDI Value

HRH Ratio by HDI Category

SN Category of Country by HDI Value

Mean of Density of Nursing/1000

Number Std. Deviation

1 Countries with HDI Value < .400 .4512 6 .28463

2 Countries with HDI Value >.401 &<.500 .7650 3 .08954

3 Countries with HDI Value >.501 &<.600 .7710 2 .44972

4 Countries with HDI Value >.601 &<.700 2.8890 4 1.26792

5 Countries with HDI Value >.701 &<.800 5.2159 9 .98950

6 Countries with HDI Value >.801 &<.900 8.7257 12 4.20510

7 Countries with HDI Value >.901 15.4070 1 .

8 Total 5.0043 37 4.45546

Projection of Nursing Professional

SN

Fiscal Year

Population in million

Normal Situation Preferred Situation

HDIDen./1000 Total Need HDI

Den./1000 Total Need

1 2011 26.49 0.458 1.24 32848 0.458 1.24 329482 2012 26.85 0.461 1.45 38933 0.461 1.45 390003 2013 27.21 0.463 1.67 45441 0.463 1.67 454964 2014 27.56 0.475 1.84 50710 0.484 1.84 508025 2015 27.92 0.486 1.84 51373 0.505 1.97 550936 2016 28.27 0.498 1.84 52017 0.526 2.10 594577 2017 28.62 0.510 1.97 56381 0.547 2.23 639228 2018 28.98 0.521 2.10 60858 0.568 2.36 684909 2019 29.33 0.533 2.10 61593 0.589 2.49 73125

10 2020 29.68 0.545 2.23 66186 0.610 2.62 7786211 2021 30.04 0.556 2.36 70894 0.631 2.75 8270212 2022 30.4 0.568 2.36 71744 0.652 2.88 8764713 2023 30.81 0.580 2.49 76717 0.688 3.01 92836

29

Projection on Nursing Professionals

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202330000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

5338956100

5886261695

6455967472

7046073500

76717

32948

39000

4549650802

55093

5945763922

68490

73125

7786282702

87647

92836

Normal Situation Preferred Situation

30Proportion of Sanctioned Posts under Health ServicesSN Sanctioned Posts Actual Number Percentage

1 CMA (Community Medical Assistant) 4352 42.3

2 ANM (Auxiliary Nurse Midwifery ) 1808 17.6

3 HA (Health Assistant) 1422 13.8

4 Staff Nurse 1239 12.0

5 Lab Assistants 406 3.9

6 AAHW (Assistant Ayurvedic Health Worker) 365 3.5

7 Kaviraj 326 3.2

8 Lab Technician 212 2.1

9 Dark Room Assistant 79 0.8

10 Assistant Pharmacist 41 0.4

11 Dietician 13 0.1

12 Physiotherapist 12 0.1

13 Cartographer 5 0.0

14 Ophthalmology Assistant 3 0.0

15Anesthetic Assistants 2

0.0

16 Total 10285 100.0

S.N.

Categories of HRH

Needs of HRH in Remarks

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Population in Ten Millions 2.76 2.80 2.83 2.86 2.90 2.93 2.97 3.00 3.04 3.08

Projected based on 1.35 GR

Projected ratio of N & MW/1000 population 1.84 1.93 2.03 2.12 2.21 2.30 2.39 2.49 2.58 2.67

Detail is given in Table 2.5

A

Tentative Need of

Nursing50802 54029 57304 60651 64074 67539 71078 74693 78384 82274

Based on the eq. 1

1 ANM 30452 32387 34350 36356 38408 40485 42607 44773 46986 49318

2 PCL Nursing 20350 21642 22954 24295 25666 27054 28472 29920 31398 32957

B Paramedics 11564912299

613045

013807

114586

2 153751 161808 17003617843

8 187295

Based on composition of civil Service

1 CMA 72352 76948 81612 86380 91254 96189 101230 10637811163

4 117175

2 HA 23603 25102 26623 28179 29769 31379 33023 34702 36417 38225

3 Lab Technician 3592 3820 4051 4288 4530 4775 5025 5281 5542 5817

4 Lab Assistant 6670 7094 7524 7964 8413 8868 9333 9807 10292 10803

5Pharmacy Assistant 2168 2305 2445 2588 2734 2882 3033 3187 3345 3511

Based on ratio with physicians

6Dark Room Assistant 1473 1567 1662 1759 1858 1959 2061 2166 2273 2386

Based on composition of civil Service

7Cold Chain Assistant 4064 4322 4584 4852 5126 5403 5686 5975 6271 6582

8 Family Planning Assistant 1727 1837 1948 2062 2179 2296 2417 2540 2665 2797

C Traditional 11456 12184 12922 13677 14449 15230 16028 16843 17676 18553

D Total 17790718920

920067

621239

922438

5 236520 248914 26157227449

7 288122

Conclusions

The growth rate of human resource should be made compatible with the national plan and policies for preparing conducive environment to implement related development interventions.

Being a public organization, CTEVT should not only response the current demand of labour market but also analyze and project future requirements and prepares workforce accordingly. Although, The Interim Constitution of Nepal, 2007 has recognized health as the fundamental rights of the people, the health services access to people is not in desired level. The access of health services to people depends upon the availability of HRH among other factors. Moreover, the production and supply of HRH has also the crucial role to upgrade the human development level of the country.

The need of labour market should not be analyzed individually by fragmenting quality, quantity and location. They are the matter of joint analysis. Supply has also the capability to create its own demand if it is escorted with quality.

Recommendation

Although, significant expansion of the supply capacity can strongly be denied, gradual and overtime expansion based on changing needs of labour market is the must.

Quality assessment (Internal as well as external efficiency ) is indispensable before taking any decision regarding the expansion of the programs.

Enhancement of quality rather than expansion of quantity of training programs should be the primary concern of present time.

The rate of expansion of training capacity should therefore limit within the certain level which is different for different trade as suggested.

Some new professions in health trade are in demand, so CTEVT should initiate to develop curricula in the respective occupations e.g. Cold Chain Assistant, Family Planning Assistant, ECG Assistant, Dental Mechanics, Acupuncture Assistant, Physiotherapy Assistant, Orthopedic Assistant, etc.

In engineering trade, Chemical Engineering, Material Engineering, System Engineering, Estimate Engineering, Production Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering among others are the emerging trades in global labour market so initiation toward running these programs is must.

The supply of HR can be increased with the existing mechanism with full utilization of existing capacity.

Enhancement of quality generates additional employment opportunity for the graduates.

The tracer study of graduates and labour market assessment should be carried out in a regular interval.

Recommendation

Expecting Your Suggestions

& Comments

Thank You

Presentation on HR Projection

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