Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31,...

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Presentation Presentation May 28, 2008 May 28, 2008

Transcript of Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31,...

Page 1: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

PresentationPresentationMay 28, 2008May 28, 2008PresentationPresentationMay 28, 2008May 28, 2008

Page 2: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Key figures of the first half 2007-2008Key figures of the first half 2007-2008ending at March 31, 2008ending at March 31, 2008

(October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008)(October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008)

Key figures of the first half 2007-2008Key figures of the first half 2007-2008ending at March 31, 2008ending at March 31, 2008

(October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008)(October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008)

Page 3: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Sales from Reported to Like-for-Like Sales from Reported to Like-for-Like Sales from Reported to Like-for-Like Sales from Reported to Like-for-Like

1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)

% Change

SALES (reported)

Currency Translation Impact

Changes in Consolidation Scope (Korea Ratings)

SALES(like-for-like)

365.7 297.9 -18.5%

365.7 305.7 -16.3%

26.2

(in € millions) 1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)

-18.4

Page 4: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Sales by CompanySales by Company(reported)(reported)

Sales by CompanySales by Company(reported)(reported)

SALES(reported)

365.7 297.9 -18.5%

313.3 227.7FITCH GROUP

Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings)Korea RatingsFitch Ratings

Intercompany Eliminations

27.3%18.4

313.3 246.1 21.4%

- 1.7 - 1.7

(*) Split of Korea Ratings Sales Ratings: 8.0 M€ Other: 10.4 M€

Algorithmics 54.1 53.5 1.1%

(*)

-

-

-

(in € millions) 1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)

% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)

Page 5: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Sales by CompanySales by Company(like-for-like)(like-for-like)

Sales by CompanySales by Company(like-for-like)(like-for-like)

SALES(like-for-like)

365.7 305.7 - 16.3%

313.3 249.2

FITCH GROUP

Fitch Ratings

Algorithmics

Intercompany Eliminations

- 20.5%

54.1 58.4 + 7.9%

- 1.7 - 1.9

1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)

% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)

(in € millions)

Page 6: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

% %

1 USA 178.5 48.8 % 113.0 37.9 %

2 UK 53.2 14.5 % 36.8 12.4 %

3 South Korea 1.1 0.3 % 18.9 6.3 %

4 Germany 13.8 3.8 % 14.2 4.8 %

5 Netherlands 10.4 2.8 % 10.1 3.4 %

6 Spain 8.3 2.3 % 8.0 2.7 %

7 Italy 8.6 2.4 % 8.0 2.7 %

8 France 8.1 2.2 % 7.8 2.6 %

9 Switzerland 6.7 1.8 % 6.6 2.2 %

10 Ireland 6.7 1.8 % 5.9 2.0 %

80.7 % 77.0 %

Sales by Geographic RegionsSales by Geographic Regions(reported)(reported)

Sales by Geographic RegionsSales by Geographic Regions(reported)(reported)

Total Sales % (reported)Total Sales % (reported)

1H 2006/20071H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)

1H 2006/20071H 2006/2007(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)

Page 7: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

From SalesFrom Salesto Recurring Operating Incometo Recurring Operating Income

From SalesFrom Salesto Recurring Operating Incometo Recurring Operating Income

RECURRING OPERATINGINCOME (like-for-like) 78.2 69.9 - 10.6%

- 287.5 - 232.2

Sales (reported)

78.2 65.7 - 16.0%

7.5

- 3.3

365.7 297.9 - 18.5%

Operating Expenses

Recurring Operating Income (reported)

Currency Translation Impact

Changes in Consolidation Scope (Korea Ratings)

1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)

% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)

(in € millions)

Page 8: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Recurring Operating Income by CompanyRecurring Operating Income by Company(reported)(reported)

Recurring Operating Income by CompanyRecurring Operating Income by Company(reported)(reported)

RECURRING OPERATINGINCOME (reported) 78.2 65.7 - 16.0%

101.0 75.9

FITCH GROUP- 24.9%

3.3101.0 79.2 - 21.6%

- 6.1 - 5.2

84.3 70.9 - 15.9%Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings)

Other (Parent Company & Holdings)

Korea RatingsFitch Ratings

- 16.7 - 8.3 + 50.3%Algorithmics

1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)

% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)

(in € millions)

Page 9: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Recurring Operating Income by CompanyRecurring Operating Income by Company(like-for-like)(like-for-like)

Recurring Operating Income by CompanyRecurring Operating Income by Company(like-for-like)(like-for-like)

RECURRING OPERATINGINCOME (like-for-like) 78.2 69.9 - 10.6%

101.0 82.5

FITCH GROUP- 18.3%

- 16.7 - 7.4 + 55.7%

- 6.1 - 5.2

84.3 75.1 - 10.9%

Fitch Ratings

Other (Parent Company & Holdings)

Algorithmics

Operating Margin Rate (ROI / Sales)Operating Margin Rate (ROI / Sales)32.2%32.2%

23.1%23.1%21.4%21.4%

33.1%33.1%

24.6%24.6%22.9%22.9%

Fitch Ratings LevelFitch Ratings Level

Fitch Group LevelFitch Group LevelFimalac Consolidation Level Fimalac Consolidation Level

1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)

% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)

(in € millions)

Page 10: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

From Recurring Operating IncomeFrom Recurring Operating Incometo Operating Result to Operating Result (reported)(reported)

From Recurring Operating IncomeFrom Recurring Operating Incometo Operating Result to Operating Result (reported)(reported)

OPERATING RESULT (reported)

104.6 78.9 - 24.6%

Recurring Operating Income(reported)

26.4 13.2

78.2 65.7 - 16.0%

Other Operating Income & Expense

1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)

% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)

(in € millions)

Page 11: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

NET EARNINGSGroup Share (reported)

53.9 30.9

Operating Result (reported)

4.5

104.6 78.9

Net Interest Expense, Other Financial

Income / (Expense)

- 47.0Taxes

0.3Equity in Net Earnings of Affiliated Companies

- 8.5Minority Interests

- 12.5

- 26.5

0.3

- 9.3

1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)

1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)

(in € millions)

From Operating ResultFrom Operating Resultto Net Earnings to Net Earnings (reported)(reported)

From Operating ResultFrom Operating Resultto Net Earnings to Net Earnings (reported)(reported)

Page 12: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Evolution of Fimalac’s ShareholdingEvolution of Fimalac’s ShareholdingEvolution of Fimalac’s ShareholdingEvolution of Fimalac’s Shareholding

including Reserved Treasury Stocks(stock options)

Majority Shareholder

Treasury Stocks

Others

09/30/2007

100.0%

1.1%

66.3%

6.9%

26.8%

03/31/2008

100.0%

1.1%

67.7%

9.9%

22.4%

Page 13: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Cash and Cash Equivalents / (Net Debt)Cash and Cash Equivalents / (Net Debt)by Companyby Company

Cash and Cash Equivalents / (Net Debt)Cash and Cash Equivalents / (Net Debt)by Companyby Company

Fitch Group

Parent Company & Holdings

Net Cash Position (excl. Building)

- 160

+ 243

+ 83

North Colonnade (London Building) - 225

- 196

+ 187

- 9

- 182

09/30/2007 03/31/2008(in € millions)

Page 14: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Fimalac Share Performance vs. CAC40 and SBF120Fimalac Share Performance vs. CAC40 and SBF120December 1992 to May 15, 2008December 1992 to May 15, 2008

Fimalac Share Performance vs. CAC40 and SBF120Fimalac Share Performance vs. CAC40 and SBF120December 1992 to May 15, 2008December 1992 to May 15, 2008

CAC 40CAC 40272272

FIMALACFIMALAC872872

SBF 120SBF 120375375

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

Dec-92

Dec-92

Dec-93

Dec-93

Dec-94

Dec-94

Dec-95

Dec-95

Dec-96

Dec-96

Dec-97

Dec-97

Dec-98

Dec-98

Dec-99

Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-07

05/31/08

05/31/08

Page 15: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.
Page 16: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Group HistoryGroup History Group HistoryGroup History

Page 17: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Group StructureGroup StructureGroup StructureGroup Structure

80% 20%

Note: Derivative Fitch subsidiary folded back into Fitch Ratings in January 2008

Page 18: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Fitch Group Fitch Group Revenue TrendRevenue Trend

Fitch Group Fitch Group Revenue TrendRevenue Trend

In $ MilIn $ Mil

$24 $43

$156 $169$222

$305$356

$455$511

$693

$774

$989

$474$439

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Note: Korea Ratings included beginning in 1H 2007 / 2008

Page 19: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

In $ Mil

Fitch Group Fitch Group Operating Income TrendOperating Income Trend

Fitch Group Fitch Group Operating Income TrendOperating Income Trend

$5 $10$29 $32 $37

$72$83

$113 $110

$150$160

$211

$109 $105

0

50

100

150

200

250

Page 20: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Fitch Group Fitch Group Sales to Operating IncomeSales to Operating Income

Fitch Group Fitch Group Sales to Operating IncomeSales to Operating Income

in US$ millions 1H 06/07 1H 07/08 % Change

RevenueRevenue 473.6473.6 438.9438.9 -7.3%-7.3%

Personnel costsPersonnel costs 231.6231.6 226.2226.2 - 2.3%- 2.3%

External expensesExternal expenses 75.175.1 75.575.5 + 0.1%+ 0.1%

Total chargesTotal charges 306.7306.7 301.7301.7 - 1.6%- 1.6%

EBITDAEBITDA 166.9166.9 137.2137.2 -17.8%-17.8%Profit sharing planProfit sharing plan 37.937.9 9.19.1

DepreciationDepreciation 8.58.5 9.99.9

Intangible assets amortizationIntangible assets amortization 11.411.4 13.713.7

Operating IncomeOperating Income 109.1109.1 104.5104.5 - 4.2%- 4.2%

Page 21: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

1H 07/08 Financial Highlights1H 07/08 Financial Highlights1H 07/08 Financial Highlights1H 07/08 Financial Highlights

(US$ millions)(US$ millions) RevenueRevenue EBITDAEBITDA Op IncomeOp Income

1H 1H 06/0706/07

1H 1H 07/0807/08

1H 1H 06/0706/07

1H 1H 07/0807/08

1H 1H 06/0706/07

1H 1H 07/0807/08

FITCH GROUPFITCH GROUP 473.6473.6 438.9438.9 - 7.3%- 7.3% 166.9166.9 137.2137.2 -17.8%-17.8% 109.1109.1 104.5104.5 - 4.2%- 4.2%

Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings 405.7405.7 335.5335.5 -17.3%-17.3% 175.1175.1 128.4128.4 -26.7%-26.7% 130.8130.8 111.9111.9 -14.4%-14.4%

Korea Korea RatingsRatings

27.127.1 6.76.7 4.94.9

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmics 70.170.1 78.878.8 +12.4%+12.4% -8.2-8.2 2.12.1 -21.7-21.7 -12.3-12.3

EliminationsEliminations - 2.2- 2.2 - 2.5- 2.5

Page 22: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.
Page 23: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Market OverviewMarket OverviewMarket OverviewMarket Overview

The credit markets began to turn in mid-2007 as the impact of broader The credit markets began to turn in mid-2007 as the impact of broader market factors became clearermarket factors became clearer

Significantly increased leverage

Reduced risk premia

Mismatch of long- and short-dated funding

Aggressive underwriting / fraud

Evidence of underlying asset performance far worse than expected led to Evidence of underlying asset performance far worse than expected led to downgrades- primarily affecting US sub-prime RMBS and CDOs of ABSdowngrades- primarily affecting US sub-prime RMBS and CDOs of ABS

The overall impact has been far-reachingThe overall impact has been far-reaching

Bank asset write-downs / reported losses

Increased volatility and widening spreads across asset classes

Decreased investor demand for riskier, more complex assets

Reduced bond issuance

Contagion effects – e.g., auction rate securities, financial guarantors, SIVs, etc.

Tightened lending standards

Page 24: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Structured Finance Ratings ActivityStructured Finance Ratings ActivityStructured Finance Ratings ActivityStructured Finance Ratings Activity

The pace and magnitude of deterioration in the US sub-prime market greatly The pace and magnitude of deterioration in the US sub-prime market greatly exceeded expectations and led toexceeded expectations and led to

Criteria reviews

Portfolio reviews

Rating actions (e.g. US RMBS, CDOs of ABS)

20072007

However, many asset classes However, many asset classes continue to perform within stress continue to perform within stress parameters (e.g. ABS and CMBS)parameters (e.g. ABS and CMBS)

Consequently, Fitch’s ratings Consequently, Fitch’s ratings actions reflect a significantly higher actions reflect a significantly higher number of downgrades than number of downgrades than upgrades in 2007upgrades in 2007

Page 25: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Corporate Finance Ratings ActivityCorporate Finance Ratings ActivityCorporate Finance Ratings ActivityCorporate Finance Ratings Activity

Corporate credit quality remained resilient- relative to structured finance- as Corporate credit quality remained resilient- relative to structured finance- as upgrades marginally exceeded downgrades in 2007upgrades marginally exceeded downgrades in 2007

In calendar 2H07, corporate credit quality began to show strain linked to the declining housing market, leading to an increased number of downgrades

Financial institutions, particularly in North American and Europe, experienced meaningful credit deterioration toward the end of 2007 and into 2008

20072007

Page 26: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Global Debt IssuanceGlobal Debt IssuanceGlobal Debt IssuanceGlobal Debt Issuance

Source: Thomson ReutersSource: Thomson Reuters

In fiscal 1H 07/08, global bond issuance volume tumbledIn fiscal 1H 07/08, global bond issuance volume tumbledGlobal deal volume of $1.2 trillion in calendar 1Q08 was 45% less than 1Q07

Asset classes most relevant to Fitch have experienced significant decreases in Asset classes most relevant to Fitch have experienced significant decreases in issuanceissuance

1H 07/081H 07/08

Global Debt Capital Markets by Asset ClassGlobal Debt Capital Markets by Asset Class1H 06/071H 06/07

Page 27: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Structured FinanceStructured FinanceStructured FinanceStructured Finance

Global structured finance issuance volume totaled $99B in calendar 1Q08, the Global structured finance issuance volume totaled $99B in calendar 1Q08, the lowest quarterly volume since 3Q96lowest quarterly volume since 3Q96

Issuance volume in calendar 1Q08 represents an 87% drop from issuance in 1Q07

Calendar 1Q08 is the third consecutive quarter-over-quarter decline in issuance volume

Source: Dealogic; Bank of England

Global Structured Finance Global Structured Finance (a)(a)

(a) Quarterly issuance. ‘Other’ includes auto, credit card and student loan ABS.(b)Commercial mortgage-backed securities(c) Residential mortgage-backed securities

Page 28: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Structured FinanceStructured FinanceStructured FinanceStructured Finance

The US structured finance market saw its lowest quarterly volume in more The US structured finance market saw its lowest quarterly volume in more than a decadethan a decade

Total US residential real estate securitizations declined 97% in calendar 1Q08 compared to the same period in 2007

US CDO issuance declined 91% in calendar 1Q08 versus the same period last year

US CMBS issuance in calendar 1Q08 was down 89% versus 1Q07

Issuance volumes in the European structured finance market were also Issuance volumes in the European structured finance market were also impacted, as evidenced by calendar 1Q08 issuance versus 1Q07impacted, as evidenced by calendar 1Q08 issuance versus 1Q07

ABS down 18%

RMBS down 51%

CDO down 58%

CMBS down 93%

Sources: Thomson Reuters, JPMorgan, ABAlert

Page 29: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Corporate Finance Corporate Finance Investment GradeInvestment Grade

Corporate Finance Corporate Finance Investment GradeInvestment Grade

The investment grade market has been less affected and remains attractive The investment grade market has been less affected and remains attractive for borrowers as investors pursue a “flight to quality”for borrowers as investors pursue a “flight to quality”

US investment grade bond issuance rose 11% in calendar 1Q08 versus the US investment grade bond issuance rose 11% in calendar 1Q08 versus the prior quarter but declined 13% from the prior yearprior quarter but declined 13% from the prior year

Issuance in April hit a record as companies took advantage of the improving market sentiment and strong investor demand

Investment grade bond issuance in EMEA decreased in 9% in calendar Investment grade bond issuance in EMEA decreased in 9% in calendar 1Q08 as compared with 4Q071Q08 as compared with 4Q07

Source: Dealogic, Goldman Sachs, Fitch Ratings

0

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400

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1 000

1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08

$ B

illio

ns

Global Investment Grade Bond IssuanceGlobal Investment Grade Bond Issuance

Page 30: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Corporate FinanceCorporate FinanceHigh Yield and Leverage LoansHigh Yield and Leverage Loans

Corporate FinanceCorporate FinanceHigh Yield and Leverage LoansHigh Yield and Leverage Loans

Source: Fitch Ratings

0

200

400

600

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1 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q 07 1Q 08

$ B

illio

ns

Total Leveraged Loans HY Bonds

However, US and European high yield bond and leveraged loan markets However, US and European high yield bond and leveraged loan markets have been impacted more significantlyhave been impacted more significantly

In calendar 1Q08, Europe saw no high yield bond issuance while US high yield bond issuance was down 72% versus 1Q07

US and European leveraged loan issuance volume declined 74% and 88%, respectively, in calendar 1Q08 as compared with the same period last year

US High Yield and Loan Volumes ($B)US High Yield and Loan Volumes ($B)

Sources: Fitch Ratings, European High Yield Association

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q 07 1Q 08€

Bill

ions

Total Leveraged Loans HY Bonds

European High Yield and Loan Volumes (European High Yield and Loan Volumes (€B)€B)

Source: European High Yield Association

Page 31: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Regulatory EnvironmentRegulatory EnvironmentRegulatory EnvironmentRegulatory Environment

As current market conditions evolve, regulatory bodies have been assessing As current market conditions evolve, regulatory bodies have been assessing the roles and policies of the rating agencies and proposing recommendations the roles and policies of the rating agencies and proposing recommendations for change for change

IOSCO

SEC

Committee on European Securities Regulators

Financial Stability Forum (central bankers, regulators and finance ministers)

US President’s Working Group on Financial Markets

US Congress

Final reports from key regulators are anticipated soonFinal reports from key regulators are anticipated soon

Fitch has committed to a series of specific measures to enhance the Fitch has committed to a series of specific measures to enhance the independence, transparency and quality of the credit rating process and the independence, transparency and quality of the credit rating process and the credit rating industrycredit rating industry

Developed and committed to jointly with the other credit rating agencies

These efforts are in addition to Fitch’s own analytical and organizational initiatives

Page 32: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Credit InitiativesCredit InitiativesCredit InitiativesCredit Initiatives

Fitch’s primary focus is on credit analytics and delivering the most appropriate Fitch’s primary focus is on credit analytics and delivering the most appropriate ratings to the market in the timeliest manner ratings to the market in the timeliest manner

Rating reviews, updating methodologies / models, publishing research, etc

Key analytical developments include:Key analytical developments include:

Real time engagement with the market Evaluating potential complementary rating scales for structured finance Assessing the merits of “harmonizing” corporate and public finance rating scales

Analytical initiatives Revised criteria and model for CDOs exposed to corporate debt Completed full review of US RMBS ratings criteria; revised ResiLogic model Initiated deterministic stress analysis of the global structured finance portfolio Updated criteria for rating Market Value Structures Focus on IFS ratings for financial guarantors Established a “Complex Bank Group”

Page 33: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Organizational InitiativesOrganizational InitiativesOrganizational InitiativesOrganizational Initiatives

Recent organizational changes include:Recent organizational changes include:

Launched Fitch Solutions in January 2008 to reinforce the independence of the rating agency and create a more focused grouping of credit products and services

Several senior management changes

Implementation of Chief Credit Officer and Risk Officer roles in both Corporates / Financial Institutions and Structured Finance

To bring enhanced analytical oversight, experience and training to the analytical groups

Page 34: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Fitch Solutions OverviewFitch Solutions OverviewFitch Solutions OverviewFitch Solutions Overview

A new division that consolidates all non-rating products and services, product A new division that consolidates all non-rating products and services, product development, credit training, and the firm's product sales forcedevelopment, credit training, and the firm's product sales force

Reinforces and further separates Fitch’s analytical activities from commercial activities

Current Fitch Ratings content forms the core of initial offerings – e.g., research, Current Fitch Ratings content forms the core of initial offerings – e.g., research, ratings dataratings data

Over 1,100 subscribing firms and 8,500 users

Subscription-based revenue streams Predictable, recurring revenue base with historically strong renewal rates Not directly tied to issuance

Scalable, growth oriented business model

Incorporates recently launched / acquired products such as Fitch CDS Pricing, Incorporates recently launched / acquired products such as Fitch CDS Pricing, Market Implied Ratings and RAP CDMarket Implied Ratings and RAP CD

Specialized products to meet increased market demand for data and tools used in the assessment of credit and market risk

Page 35: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Fitch Solutions Recent Fitch Solutions Recent DevelopmentsDevelopments

Fitch Solutions Recent Fitch Solutions Recent DevelopmentsDevelopments

Acquisition of equity stake in Portsmouth Financial Systems in May 2008Acquisition of equity stake in Portsmouth Financial Systems in May 2008

Next generation provider of structured finance analytics (e.g. cash flow models, underlying assets, etc.)

Reaffirms Fitch’s commitment to provide solutions that meet evolving investor needs and to increase transparency in structured finance markets

Launch of Fitch ABCDS Pricing in March 2008Launch of Fitch ABCDS Pricing in March 2008

Consensus pricing for asset-backed credit default swaps (ABCDS) with a benchmark service to provide a derived price for illiquid assets

Complements existing single name CDS and Loan CDS services and reflects expansion of Fitch’s efforts in the pricing and valuation services business

Introduction of Covered Bonds SMART in March 2008Introduction of Covered Bonds SMART in March 2008

New surveillance and research service for the covered bonds market

First rating agency to have developed this type of service for this sector

Page 36: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Asia Pacific Growth PlatformsAsia Pacific Growth PlatformsAsia Pacific Growth PlatformsAsia Pacific Growth Platforms

Fitch maintains 15 offices in 11 countries Fitch maintains 15 offices in 11 countries throughout the Asia Pacific regionthroughout the Asia Pacific region

Asian capital markets are growing and Asian capital markets are growing and dynamic; Fitch is continually evaluating dynamic; Fitch is continually evaluating investment and acquisition opportunitiesinvestment and acquisition opportunities

Strategic investments over the past year Strategic investments over the past year include:include:

Acquisition of 54% stake in Korea Ratings, the leading Korean credit rating agency

Acquisition of 49% stake in China Lianhe Credit Rating, one of China’s largest domestic market rating agencies

Investments in Fitch’s Indian operations to capitalize on growing domestic market

$24$27

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$ m

illi

ons

1H 06/07 1H 07/08

Korea Ratings Revenue

Note: Equity stake in Korea Ratings effective April Note: Equity stake in Korea Ratings effective April 2007. 1H06/07 Korea Ratings revenue is 2007. 1H06/07 Korea Ratings revenue is represented on a pro-forma basis as if Fitch Ratings represented on a pro-forma basis as if Fitch Ratings held a majority stake during this period.held a majority stake during this period.

Page 37: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Revenue by SegmentRevenue by SegmentRevenue by SegmentRevenue by Segment

((US$ millions)US$ millions) RevenueRevenue

1H 06/071H 06/07 1H 07/081H 07/08 % change% change

FITCH RATINGSFITCH RATINGS 405.7405.7 335.5335.5 - 17.3%- 17.3%

Structured FinanceStructured Finance 213.1213.1 128.5128.5 - 39.7%- 39.7%

Corporate FinanceCorporate Finance 149.4149.4 155.0155.0 + 3.7%+ 3.7%

Subscriptions / TrainingSubscriptions / Training 43.243.2 52.052.0 + 20.4%+ 20.4%

KOREA RATINGSKOREA RATINGS N/AN/A 27.127.1

Note: The 1H06/07 segment split reflects minor changes from previously released figures for the reclassification of Note: The 1H06/07 segment split reflects minor changes from previously released figures for the reclassification of Global Infrastructure ratings revenue.Global Infrastructure ratings revenue.““Subscriptions / Training” reflects business managed as “Fitch Solutions”Subscriptions / Training” reflects business managed as “Fitch Solutions”

Page 38: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Revenue by RegionRevenue by RegionRevenue by RegionRevenue by Region

((US$ millions)US$ millions) RevenueRevenue

1H 06/071H 06/07 1H 07/081H 07/08 % change% change

FITCH RATINGSFITCH RATINGS 405.7405.7 335.5335.5 - 17.3%- 17.3%

North AmericaNorth America 218.5218.5 152.6152.6 - 30.2%- 30.2%

EMEAEMEA 150.4150.4 145.6145.6 + 3.2%+ 3.2%

Latin AmericaLatin America 18.118.1 20.320.3 + 12.2%+ 12.2%

Asia PacificAsia Pacific 18.718.7 17.017.0 - 9.1%- 9.1%

KOREA RATINGSKOREA RATINGS N/AN/A 27.127.1

Note: The 1H06/07 regional split reflects minor changes in regional reporting from previously reported figures.Note: The 1H06/07 regional split reflects minor changes in regional reporting from previously reported figures.

Page 39: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Fitch Ratings Fitch Ratings EBITDA and Operating Income EBITDA and Operating Income

Fitch Ratings Fitch Ratings EBITDA and Operating Income EBITDA and Operating Income

Note: Financials exclude Korea RatingsNote: Financials exclude Korea Ratings

(in US$ millions) 1H 06 / 07 1H 07 / 08 % Change

Revenue Revenue 405.7405.7 335.5335.5 -17.3%-17.3%

EBITDA EBITDA 175.1175.1 128.4128.4 -26.7%-26.7%

EBITDA MarginEBITDA Margin 43.2%43.2% 38.3%38.3%

Profit sharing planProfit sharing plan 37.737.7 9.09.0

Depreciation & AmortizationDepreciation & Amortization6.66.6 7.57.5

Operating Income Operating Income 130.8130.8 111.9111.9 -14.4%-14.4%

Operating Income MarginOperating Income Margin 32.2%32.2% 33.4%33.4%

Page 40: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Expense ManagementExpense ManagementExpense ManagementExpense Management

Fitch has been cautiously managing all costs, specifically compensation Fitch has been cautiously managing all costs, specifically compensation expenses, by reducingexpenses, by reducing

Variable compensation expenses, bonus accruals, and incentive compensation charges

Headcount In January 2008, Fitch announced a reduction in headcount of 150, or roughly 7%, by

September 2008 In April 2008, Fitch revised staff reduction estimates to 180 – 200, or 8% – 10% of

total employees by fiscal year end

Careful expense management, balanced with focused investments in areas of Careful expense management, balanced with focused investments in areas of continued growth, will provide Fitch with a stable platform to move forwardcontinued growth, will provide Fitch with a stable platform to move forward

Page 41: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Current Market DynamicsCurrent Market DynamicsCurrent Market DynamicsCurrent Market Dynamics

Some positive developments…Some positive developments…BlackRock’s purchase of a $15 billion portfolio of sub-prime mortgage debt and other similar deals

Banks reducing unsold bond and leveraged loan commitments (from $300B last summer to about $100B recently)

Bond issuance by banks of $303 billion globally in April, the third-highest month of all time

US high yield debt issuance of over $4 billion in April, the highest monthly volume since November 2007

Spreads tightening in April and May, but still much wider than same period last year

… … but continued challenges remainbut continued challenges remainFundamentals in housing markets remain weak

Further ratings downgrades possible

Concerns over broader economic slowdown

Many structured finance markets remain inactive

Financial institutions continue to write down assets

Sources: Dealogic, Thomson Reuters, The Wall Street JournalSources: Dealogic, Thomson Reuters, The Wall Street Journal

Page 42: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Key Challenges for 2008Key Challenges for 2008Key Challenges for 2008Key Challenges for 2008

Balancing the short term business impact against longer term challenges Balancing the short term business impact against longer term challenges and opportunitiesand opportunities

Dichotomy between Structured and Corporates, US and the rest of the world

Ever increasing demand for quality due to the complexity of the capital markets and market volatility

Longer term opportunity to distinguish ourselves

Reputational and regulatory challenges to the industryReputational and regulatory challenges to the industryMarket confidence in rating agencies has been shakenNumerous regulatory bodies are interested in “fixing” the credit problems

Reacting without overreactingReacting without overreactingOrganizational changesIntroducing new products to fill market voidsAcquisitions to complement the business

Page 43: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

ConclusionConclusionConclusionConclusion

The entire organization has rallied around the urgency of the credit The entire organization has rallied around the urgency of the credit challenges, aiming to be timely and transparent with our research and challenges, aiming to be timely and transparent with our research and ratingsratings

We expect that corporate ratings will continue on a growth trendWe expect that corporate ratings will continue on a growth trend

We are less sure about the timing and extent of structured markets We are less sure about the timing and extent of structured markets recoveryrecovery

Fitch Ratings revenues for the fiscal year ending September 2008 could Fitch Ratings revenues for the fiscal year ending September 2008 could decrease by roughly 20% on a like-for-like basis as compared to fiscal decrease by roughly 20% on a like-for-like basis as compared to fiscal 20072007

Page 44: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.
Page 45: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsHighlightsHighlights

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsHighlightsHighlights

Notes: 1 1 Top 100 banks according to “The Banker”

5454 New License OrdersNew License Orders♦ Strong add-on sales and new businessStrong add-on sales and new business

383 Software Solution clients383 Software Solution clients♦ Continuing expansion into existing accountsContinuing expansion into existing accounts

162 Content and Data clients 162 Content and Data clients ♦ Growth in subscription revenueGrowth in subscription revenue

Over 70Over 7011 of the world’s 100 largest financial institutionsof the world’s 100 largest financial institutions♦ Provides annuity streamProvides annuity stream

756 professionals in 19 global offices756 professionals in 19 global offices♦ Strengthening sales and delivery capabilitiesStrengthening sales and delivery capabilities

Page 46: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

Credit and Capital Solutions

126 clients

Market Risk Solutions

154 clients

Operational Risk Solutions

102 clients

Collateral Management Solutions

70 clients

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsSolution Achievements Solution Achievements

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsSolution Achievements Solution Achievements

Page 47: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsRevenue by RegionRevenue by Region

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsRevenue by RegionRevenue by Region

(in millions of US$)2006/2007

(Oct 06 – Mar 07)

2007/2008(Oct 07 - Mar 08)

% Change

North AmericaNorth America 18.7 20.1 + 7.5%

Europe, Middle East & AfricaEurope, Middle East & Africa 36.2 47.2 + 30.4%

Latin AmericaLatin America 3.0 3.4 +13.3%

Asia PacificAsia Pacific 12.2 8.1 - 33.6%

TOTAL ALGORITHMICSTOTAL ALGORITHMICS 70.1*70.1* 78.8*78.8* + 12.4%+ 12.4%

* Includes inter-company revenue of $2.2 and $2.5M million for the period March 07 and March 08 respectively.* Includes inter-company revenue of $2.2 and $2.5M million for the period March 07 and March 08 respectively.

Page 48: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsEBITDA and Operating Income EBITDA and Operating Income

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsEBITDA and Operating Income EBITDA and Operating Income

*Includes inter-company revenue of $2.2M and $2.5M for the period March 07 and March 08 respectively. *Includes inter-company revenue of $2.2M and $2.5M for the period March 07 and March 08 respectively.

(in (in millions of US$)millions of US$) 2006/20072006/2007(Oct 06 – Mar 07)(Oct 06 – Mar 07)

2007/20082007/2008(Oct 07 - Mar 08)(Oct 07 - Mar 08)

% Change% Change

RevenueRevenue 70.170.1(*)(*) 78.878.8(*)(*) + 12.4%+ 12.4%

EBITDAEBITDA - 8.2- 8.2 + 2.1+ 2.1

Profit sharing planProfit sharing plan 0.20.2 0.10.1

DepreciationDepreciation 1.91.9 2.92.9

Intangible assets amortizationIntangible assets amortization 11.411.4 11.411.4

Recurring Operating IncomeRecurring Operating Income - 21.7- 21.7 - 12.3- 12.3

Page 49: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsMarket Drivers Market Drivers

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsMarket Drivers Market Drivers

Current market turmoil reinforces the importance of ubiquitous and effective risk management

Increasingly, financial institutions adopt ‘risk-aware’ business applications to enable informed growth

Sound risk management is becoming a critical requirement in ‘related’ market verticals and emerging markets

Growing complexity and cost pressures reinforce ‘buy’ over ‘build’ decisions

Page 50: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsInvestment FocusInvestment Focus

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsInvestment FocusInvestment Focus

Establishing presence in new geographical marketsEstablishing presence in new geographical marketsJanuary 15, 2008 – “IBM and Algorithmics to build first advanced risk management system for a Securities House in China – Guotai Juan Securities “

December 11, 2007 – “RenaissanceRe Holdings, one of the world’s largest reinsurers of natural and man-made catastrophes selected Algo Risk Service to advance its risk culture.”

Life and Pensions 2008– “ING developed a replication approach using technology provided by Algorithmics for back-end analysis, and a very unique replication portfolio technology, which was implemented globally for 96% of ING’s business in 2007

April 9, 2008 – “Nedbank, working in partnership with Algorithmics has implemented a comprehensive, integrated market and credit risk management infrastructure to support informed risk decision making. Nedbank uses a suite of products, including Algo Credit Regulatory Capital, Algo Credit Administrator and Algo Credit Limits.”

March 5, 2008– “Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad, Malaysia’s premier integrated financial services group has selected and implemented the Algo OpVar Standard Edition solution for operational risk. “

Investing in managed service solutions for asset managers and hedge Investing in managed service solutions for asset managers and hedge fundsfunds

Continued focus on core solutions Continued focus on core solutions

Developing broader risk solution for the insurance industry Developing broader risk solution for the insurance industry

Page 51: Presentation May 28, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the first half 2007-2008 ending at March 31, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008) Key figures.

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsRecognized LeadershipRecognized Leadership

AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsRecognized LeadershipRecognized Leadership

2007 -- Risk Rankings: 5 First Place Finishes2007 -- Risk Rankings: 5 First Place Finishes““Algorithmics held its dominant position in market, credit, operational risk, collateral Algorithmics held its dominant position in market, credit, operational risk, collateral management and Basel II”.management and Basel II”.

2008 -- Operational Risk and Compliance: Close Second2008 -- Operational Risk and Compliance: Close SecondRanked a very close second overall with top rankings in Scenario analysis and Regulatory Ranked a very close second overall with top rankings in Scenario analysis and Regulatory and Economic Capital and Economic Capital

2008 -- Celent Evaluation: Ranked as Leader 2008 -- Celent Evaluation: Ranked as Leader Ranked as a leader in Celent’s Evaluation of Financial and Credit Risk Solution Vendors Ranked as a leader in Celent’s Evaluation of Financial and Credit Risk Solution Vendors in advanced features and technology amongst 10 competitorsin advanced features and technology amongst 10 competitors

2008 -- Life and Pensions: Adapted technology for new use2008 -- Life and Pensions: Adapted technology for new use““By enhancing its optimisation technology, and combining this with its scenario-based By enhancing its optimisation technology, and combining this with its scenario-based market risk capabilities, Algorithmics has caught the traditional vendors of actuarial market risk capabilities, Algorithmics has caught the traditional vendors of actuarial software on the hop.”software on the hop.”