© SIWI | siwi.org

Presentation from

2016 World Water

Week in Stockholm

www.worldwaterweek.org

© The authors, all rights reserved

3

The Nile Basin - Source of livelihood for > 250 million people

in 11 countries- 3.2 million sq km area- Most part of the basin is arid/semi-desert- Over 80 percent of river flow originate from

a relatively small part of the basin that is prone to regular climate extremes (drought, floods)

- Most current uses are in the d/s arid/semi-desert part

- Most undeveloped part is upstream in water source countries

- Home to fragile ecosystems and world-class environmental assets

4

Rapidly growing population and economies

Source: World Bank; World Development Indicator database

• Rapidly increasing water demand for consumption, food and energy production

• Decreasing per capita water availability

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2050

Tota

l po

pu

lati

on

(in

Mill

ion

)

Burundi

DR Congo

Egypt

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Kenya

Rwanda

South Sudan

Sudan

Uganda

Tanzania

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

2015 2025 2050

NB Countries' total population, Millions

The substantial unmet basic needs

5

105

1700

62

57

160

157

99

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Burundi

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Egypt , Arab Rep.

Erit rea

Ethiopia

Kenya

Rwanda

South Sudan

Sudan

Tanzania

Uganda

Electricity consumption per capita, kWh

Per capita electricity consumption (Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2011)

74%

31%

99%

53%49%

57%

72%

57%

46%

65%

Burundi DR Congo Egypt Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda SouthSudan

Sudan Tanzania Uganda

Percentage of rural population with access to clean drinking water

91%

81%

100%

73%

93%

82%87%

67%

77%73%

Burundi DR Congo Egypt Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda SouthSudan

Sudan Tanzania Uganda

Percentage of urban population with access to clean drinking water

44%

29%

97%

45%

27%31%

59%

16%

44%

31%

77%

Burundi DRCongo

Egypt Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda SouthSudan

Sudan Tanzania Uganda

Access to improved sanitation - urban areas

Low level of investment in water infrastructure, high hydrologic variability, climate change risks…..

6

Incr

easi

ng

in

vest

men

t

Increasing hydrological complexity

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mo

nth

ly a

ve

rag

e f

low

, B

CM

Monthly Average Flow for Blue Nile @ Diem, 1913 - 2014

Average Min Max

(Source: Coping with the curse of freshwater variability;

Hall et all; Insights/perspectives;

Adapting to hydrologic variability and resilience to climatic risks through:- Information - Infrastructure- Institutions

(Nile Basin)

How are countries addressing the increasing water demand?

7

> 25 new dams by 2050; Total storage 430 BCM

hydropowerTo > 25000 MW

Irrigation can increase by > 3 M ha

Water infrastructure

development seen as key to

achieving water security

Investment in land in Ethiopia some facts (landmatrix.org; 24 May 2016)

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

% o

f far

ms

Factors for commerical farms' failure to cultivate all area allocated to them

89%

9%

2%

Land leased by nationality of owner, Ethiopa (%); WB 2015

Ethiopian

Foreign2

Joint

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Before 1991 1991-1992 1992-2002 2002-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2011-2013

Are

a,

ha

Area leased by year, Ethiopia (ha)(WB 2015)

- Most land leased to Ethiopians- Most farms are rain-fed; - Declining rate of land leasing

Irrigated agriculture expected to grow in the Nile Basin

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Burundi Dr Congo Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda SouthSudan

Sudan Tanzania Uganda

Irri

gati

on a

rea,

'000

ha

Irrigation areas - baseline and by 2050 Equipped area , baseline

Equipped area, 2050

Total basin-wide irrigation area expected to increase from a current

level of 5.4 Million ha to 8.7 Million ha

Growth in hp plants installed capacities

00

2281.7

10708300

1591.6

0630

Baseline Installed capacity of hp plants, (MW)

Burundi

DR Congo

Egypt

Ethiopia

Kenya

Rwanda

South Sudan

2014: 5600 MW

270 2282

14977

83271230

146027

1676

Projected installed capacities of hp plants, 2050; MW

Burundi

DR Congo

Egypt

Ethiopia

Kenya

Rwanda

South Sudan

Sudan

Tanzania

2050: ca 2700 MW

Consequences of ‘business as usual’ approach

U/S Development deficit Inability to meet growing demand (for food, energy, drinking water, etc.) Pressure for development Development happening; will happen; Unilateralism

Competitive utilization Violation of hydrologic unity Biodiversity loss; critical ecosystem and environmental functions deteriorate water quality deteriorate The river endangered U/S –D/S water use/share conflicts spillover to other arenas security, military, economic, ideological political = Potential to turn into a really bad scenario!!!!

2. Why Basin Risk Appraisal Matters

Need for mitigation, avoidance (of political, financial, economic, social, reputational, etc.) of risks to WR investments;

Leveraging Risks to create awareness about the commons; promote collective; cooperative action

Ensuring return to scarce capital (loss minimization; profit/social welfare maximization)

Managing the risks ….

The NBI has embarked on important activities that have the potential to address such risks …

Strategic Water Resources analysis determining the ‘safe development space’

Multi-Sector, Multi-country Investment Opportunity Analysis

Policy suites, e.g. social and environmental policy, environmental flow guidelines to ..

Issue state of the Nile Basin report for periodic monitoring and reporting; red flagging

Engage Basin states on regional Nile Basin hydrometmonitoring system

13

Shared Vision

Setting basin D and M objectives,

(visioning process)

Vision and Basin Management/D

objectives; developing

criteria for basin

Implementation

Nile Basin WR Management

Plan

Nile Basin Investment

Program

Collaborative WR Assessment (process +

content)(scenarios, strategic

options; what is possible; value system)

SOB (process + content)(Challenges; priority

issues, Impact M and E)

Collaborative/joint Planning for managing risks

Key messages Aggregate water demand of NB countries can likely surpass available surface water resources. However, there are various ways by which NB countries can address the mismatch without necessarily over-stressing surface water resources. Examples of such strategies include:

Increasing the diversity of water resources investments- in increasing basin water yield; water use efficiency; managing scarce water resources

Leveraging scale, Resource Use efficiency doing more with less; optimization

Building trust and confidence Conflict prevention thru mutual gains from resource use efficiency ;

Building WR knowledge more nuanced understanding of the resource base; defining the development space and system limits; hydrologic unit perspective;

Sustaining the River and associated ecosystemsmanaging likely future mismatch between demand and supply; environmental flow; the Nile and associated ecosystems as Stakeholders;

Building Basin wide Collective Adaptive Capacity ; Resilience Cooperative management – development regime 15