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Transcript of Presentation for the Macaulay Honors College of the City University of New York February 4, 2015...
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Presentation for the Macaulay Honors College of the City University of New York
February 4, 2015Joseph Salvo
POPULATION DIVISION
The Population of New York CityRecent Trends and Ongoing Challenges
New York City is Big and Dynamic
3
Population Change for the 10 Largest Cities in the U.S., 2000 to 2013Ranked by Population in 2013
*Achieved population peak in 2013
Geographic Area
Number Percent
1 New York, NY* 8,008,278 8,405,837 397,559 5.02 Los Angeles, CA* 3,694,820 3,884,307 189,487 5.13 Chicago, IL 2,896,016 2,718,782 -177,234 -6.1
Brooklyn, NY 2,465,326 2,592,149 126,823 5.1Queens, NY* 2,229,379 2,296,175 66,796 3.0
4 Houston, TX* 1,953,631 2,195,914 242,283 12.4Manhattan, NY 1,537,195 1,626,159 88,964 5.8
5 Philadelphia, PA 1,517,550 1,553,165 35,615 2.36 Phoenix, AZ* 1,321,045 1,513,367 192,322 14.6
Bronx, NY 1,332,650 1,418,733 86,083 6.57 San Antonio, TX* 1,144,646 1,409,019 264,373 23.18 San Diego, CA* 1,223,400 1,355,896 132,496 10.89 Dallas, TX* 1,188,580 1,257,676 69,096 5.810 San Jose, CA* 894,943 998,537 103,594 11.6
35 Sacramento, CA* 407,018 479,686 72,668 17.9Staten Island, NY* 443,728 472,621 28,893 6.5
Rank
Total Population Population Change
NYC and Boroughs 2000 20132000-2013
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census PL 94-171 Files; 2013 American Community SurveyPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Series1
-150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000
2000-2010
Thousands
Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized) New York City
Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data 1970-2010; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene;
United States Department of Homeland Securityas revised by Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Population Change
Natural Increase
Net Migration
Net InternationalMigration
Net DomesticMigration
Changes in the Population Dynamic on the Horizon?
Series1
-150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000
Series1
-150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000
2000-2010
2010-2013
Thousands
Thousands
Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized) New York City
Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data 1970-2010; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene;
United States Department of Homeland Securityas revised by Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Population Change
Natural Increase
Net Migration
Net InternationalMigration
Net DomesticMigration
Migration data are based on year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the IRS.Does not include the income tax returns filed by those living abroad.
Source: Statistics of Income Division, Internal Revenue ServicePopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Migration Patterns for Persons Filing Tax ReturnsNew York City, 1985-2010
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
In MigrationOut Migration
50 States & Puerto
Rico66.2%
Abroad33.8%
Changing Origins of In-migrants to New York City, 1995-2000 and 2008-2012
1995-2000 2008-2012
50 States & Puerto
Rico50.2%
Abroad49.8%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 2008-2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata SamplePopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Census-Summary File 1, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-Summary File Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
2008-2012 Change2000 to 2008-2012
New York City Total = 29.1%
Change
Gain of 2,000 or more
1,000 to 1,999
250 to 999
-249 to 249
-250 to -999
Loss of -1,000 or more
Percent
55.0% or more
45.0% to 54.9%
35.0% to 44.9%
25.0% to 34.9%
Less than 25.0%
(8 neighborhoods)
(11)
(14)
(41)
(114)
(14 neighborhoods)
(15)
(45)
(81)
(24)
(9)
Non-family Householders with a Head of Household Under 65 Yearsby New York City Neighborhoods,* 2000 and 2008-2012
How the Foreign-Born DefineNew York City
2012
2000
1990
1980
1970
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000
Native-Born Foreign-Born
5,401,440
5,239,633
Total Population by NativityNew York City, 1970 to 2012
5,137,246
6,457,740
1,670,199
1,437,058
PercentForeign-born
18.2
23.6
35.9
28.4
5,200,105 37.6
2,082,931
2,871,032
3,136,592
Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1970 to 2000; 2012 American Community SurveyPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Dominican Repub-lic
13.0%
China*11.2%
Mexico5.8%
Jamaica5.7%
Guyana4.5%
Ecuador4.1%
Haiti3.2%
Trinidad & Tobago2.9%
India2.6%
Colombia2.5%
All Other44.6%
Top Ten Sources of the Foreign-born PopulationNew York City and the United States, 2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata SamplePopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Total = 3,154,955* Includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
New York City
Mexico28.2%
China*5.6%
India4.8%
Philippines4.6%
Vietnam3.1%
El Salvador3.1%
Cuba2.7%Korea
2.7%
Dominican Republic2.4%
Guatemala2.2%
All Other40.6%
Total = 40,738,224
United States
Bronx
ManhattanQueens
StatenIsland
New York City Total = 3,136,592 (2012 Data)
Brooklyn
Foreign-born
40,000 or more (7 neighborhoods)
25,000 to 39,999 (28)
15,000 to 24,999 (37)
9,000 to 14,499 (63)
Under 9,000 (53)
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods.
Total Foreign-born by Neighborhood*New York City, 2008-2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey—Summary File Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Midwood
Bedford
Fordham S
Beffor PkFordham N
BoroughPk
Rugby-Remsen Vl
East Flushing
Woodhaven
Madison
EVl
Clinton
Whitestone
LaGuardiaAirport
Kew Gardens
Hills
Pomonok-Flushing Hts-
Hillcrest
Auburndale
Queensboro Hill
John F KennedyInternational Airport
S Jamaica
Jamaica
OldAstoria
Baisley
Pk
Ridgewood
MiddleVillage
PelhamPkwy
Williamsbridge-Olinville
Murray Hill
N Corona
Fresh Mdws-Utopia
East Elmhurst
Briarwood-Jamaica Hills
Brownsville
E New York(PA Ave)
Pkchester
Erasmus
SunsetPk E
Cypress Hills-City Line
Greenpoint
Battery Pk City-Lower MN
Hunters Pt-Sunnyside-W Maspeth
Co-opCity
V Crtlndt Vlg
Woodlawn-Wakefield
E Flatbush-Farragut
Glendale
Homecrest
Seagate-Coney Island
Morrisania-Melrose
Bronxdale
RegoPk
CoronaElmhurst
Kew Gardens
Laurelton
QueensVillage
WashHts N Uni Hts
Morris Hts
Marble Hill-Inwood
Bellerose
CrownHtsN
Yorkville
Turtle Bay-E Midtown
Douglas Manor-Douglaston-Little Neck
W Farms-Bronx River
DykerHeights
Far Rockaway-Bayswater
Astoria
Prospect Lefferts Gardens-Wingate
Bay Ridge
SunsetPk W
Gravesend
BensonhurstE
Rosedale
LowerE
Side
SoHo-TriBeCa-
Civic Center-Little Italy
Chinatown
Richmond Hill
Kbridge Hghts
S Ozone Pk
Sheepshead Bay-Gerritsen Beach
Manhattan Beach
Highbridge
WCncrs
JacksonHts
Woodside
Flatbush
UWS
UES-Carnegie Hill
LincolnSquare
Murray Hill-Kips Bay
MorningsideHts
Elmhurst-Maspeth
StuyvesantHts
N Side-S Side
Forest
Hills
Pk Slope-Gowanus
Steinway
Soundview-Castle Hill-Clason Pt-Harding Pk
Soundview-Bruckner
Cntrl Harlem N-Polo Grounds
Central Harlem S
Mott Haven-Port Morris
E Harlem
N
Hudson Yards-Chelsea-Flatiron-
Union Square
W Vl
BushwickN
BushwickS
Allerton-Pelham Gardens
BrightonBeachW
Brighton
BathBeach
BensonhurstW
Jamaica Estates-Holliswood
Hollis
Maspeth
OaklandGrdns
Bayside-Bayside Hills
Flushing
CollegePt
WashHts S
Mt Hope
E Cncrs-Cncrs Vl
New Springville-Bloomfield-
Travis
Georgetown-Marine Pk-
Bergen Beach-Mill Basin
Canarsie
Flatlands
East New York
HamiltonHts
Melrose S-Mott Haven N
St.
Albans
E Harlem
S
Lenox Hill-Roosevelt Island
Norwood
Manhattanville
E Tremont
Changes and Persistent Challenges
Population Growth by Race/Hispanic OriginNew York City, 2000-2012
Black nonhispanic White nonhispanic Asian nonhispanic Hispanic0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2000 2012
PercentChange = -2.4 11.4-3.9 39.0
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Censuses-Summary File 1; 2012 American Community SurveyPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Chinese**47%
Asian Indian19%
Korean9%
Filipino7%
Bangladeshi5%
Pakistani4%
Japanese2%
Vietnamese1%
Other5%
Puerto Rican31%
Dominican Republic26%
Mexican14%
Ecuadorian8%
Colombian4%
Salvadoran2%
Honduran2%
Other12%
Hispanic and Asian SubgroupsNew York City, 2012
Total = 2,377,486
Asian*Hispanic
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey- 3 Year EstimatesPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
*Includes a small number of Asians who are of Hispanic origin.** Includes Taiwanese
Total = 1,064,658
Speaks
Eng-lish at
Home
396242851%
Eng-lish Pro-fi-
cient204407026%
Not Eng-lish Pro-fi-
cient178985823%
Persons by English Language Ability
New York City, 2012
Total Persons Ages 5 and Over = 7,796,356
Speakslanguageother than
Englishat home
49% 3,833,928
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata SamplePopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
Limited English Proficient Population by Language Spoken at Home
New York City, 2012
* Includes Chinese, Cantonese, Mandarin, and Formosan
Number Percent
Total LEP 1,789,858 100.0
Top LEP LanguagesSpanish 882,606 49.3Chinese* 305,734 17.1Russian 115,371 6.4French Creole 54,237 3.0Bengali 44,568 2.5Korean 43,992 2.5Italian 26,953 1.5Polish 24,270 1.4Arabic 23,799 1.3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata SamplePopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
** Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods.
Percent of Population* Not Proficient in English by Neighborhood Tabulation Area**New York City, 2008-2012
* Population 5 years and over
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinderPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
New York City Total = 23.3%
Bronx
Queens
StatenIsland
Manhattan
Brooklyn
Percent Not Proficient in English
50.0% or more
40.0% to 49.9%
30.0% to 39.9%
23.0% to 29.9%
Less than 23.0%
(8 neighborhoods)
(14)
(35)
(31)
(100)
20
Percent College Graduates by Neighborhood Tabulation Area*New York City, 2008-2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinderPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
New York City Total = 34.0%
Percent Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
60.0% or more
40.0% to 59.9%
30.0% to 39.9%
20.0% to 29.9%
Less than 20.0%
(20 neighborhoods)
(26)
(34)
(58)
(50)
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods.
Bronx18.1%
Queens29.9%
StatenIsland29.0%
Manhattan58.2%
Brooklyn29.8%
Top Neighborhoods1.West Village
2.Upper East Side-Carnegie Hill
3.Brooklyn Heights-Cobble Hill
4.Turtle Bay-East Midtown
5.Lincoln Square
Lowest Attainment1.Williamsburg
2.North Corona
3.Longwood
4.Claremont-Bathgate
5.Hunts Point
21
8.8 8.2 7.1 6.8 8.5
15.8 14.9 13.2 12.714.5
24.923.7
21.3 21.523
47.2 50.8 56.4 56.750.8
5th Quintile
4th Quintile
3rd Quintile
2nd Quintile
1st Quintile
Pe
rce
nt
Ag
gre
ga
te I
nc
om
eShares of Aggregate Household Income by QuintileNew York City, 1980-2011 and United States, 2011
Top 20% of households have aggregate income =
2.0 2.32.4 3.23.2
1980 1990 2000 2011 2011
New York City U.S.
Source: 1980 and 1990 PUMS, 2000 U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey Public Use MicrodataPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
22
100
75
50
25
0
Poverty Rate by Neighborhood Tabulation Area*New York City, 2008-2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinderPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
New York City Total = 19.9%
Poverty Rate
45.0% or more
35.0% to 44.9%
25.0% to 34.9%
15.0% to 24.9%
Less than 15.0%
(4 neighborhoods)
(15)
(32)
(48)
(89)
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods.
Bronx29.3%
Queens14.4%
StatenIsland11.3%
Manhattan17.5%
Brooklyn22.7%
Top Neighborhoods1.Williamsburg
2.Belmont
3.Claremont-Bathgate
4.Hunts Point
5.East Tremont
23
Persons with Ratio of Income to Poverty Level of 1.00 to 1.99by Neighborhood Tabulation Area*New York City, 2008-2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinderPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
New York City = 19.7%
Percent
30.0% or more
25.0% to 29.9%
20.0% to 24.9%
15.0% to 19.9%
Less than 15.0%
(6 neighborhoods)
(35)
(48)
(43)
(56)
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods.
Bronx24.5%
Queens19.3%
StatenIsland12.8%
Manhattan15.4%
Brooklyn21.2%
Top Neighborhoods1.North Corona
2.Sunset Park East
3.Mott Haven-Port Morris
4.Melrose South-Mott Haven North
5.Highbridge
24
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinderPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
New York City = 14.3%
Percent Uninsured
25.0% or more
20.0% to 24.9%
15.0% to 19.9%
10.0% to 14.9%
Less than 10.0%
(9 neighborhoods)
(20)
(49)
(49)
(61)
* Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods.
Bronx15.9%
Queens17.6%
StatenIsland7.7%
Manhattan10.9%
Brooklyn13.8%
Percent of Population with no Health Insurance Coverageby Neighborhood Tabulation Area*New York City, 2008-2012
Top Neighborhoods1.North Corona
2.Bushwick North
3.East Elmhurst
4.Elmhurst
5.Corona
25
Population Projections
2010: 8,242,6242040: 9,025,145
468,730501,109
2,552,9112,840,525
2,250,0022,412,649
1,385,1081,579,245
1,585,8731,691,617
Population Projections by BoroughNew York City, 2010 and 2040
Bronx
Manhattan
Queens
Brooklyn
Staten Island
New York City
Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population ProjectionsPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
% Change: 9.5 6.7
14.0
7.2
11.3
6.9
2010: 1,002,2082040: 1,409,708
59,34497,883
294,610428,845
288,219377,060
145,882228,476
214,153277,444
Projections for the Population 65 and Over by BoroughNew York City, 2010 and 2040
Bronx
Manhattan
Queens
Brooklyn
Staten Island
New York City
Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population ProjectionsPopulation Division-New York City Department of City Planning
% Change: 40.7 29.6
56.6
30.8
45.6
64.9
Data Links
• DCP Population Division Web site: www.nyc.gov/population
• New York City Census FactFinder: www.nyc.gov/cff
• Census Bureau Web site: www.census.gov