Presentation aes eletropaulo_3_q12_sem discurso_v2
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Transcript of Presentation aes eletropaulo_3_q12_sem discurso_v2
3Q12 Results November, 2012
Decrease of 12% in SAIDI and 10% in SAIFI
- Both below the regulatory limits, as a result of the Action Plan
0.4% decrease in energy consumption
Investments of R$ 225 million, a 10% increase
Gross revenues totaled R$ 3,757 million, a 5% decrease
Reorganization and restructuring costs of R$ 34 million in the quarter
Ebitda of R$ 108 million in the 3Q12, a reduction of 83%
Net income of R$ 14 million, a 96% decrease
.
Financial
3Q12 Highlights
Operational
2
On July 4th, 2012, it was applied the index of tariff review (economic effect: – 5.60%) and tariff adjustment (economic effect: +4.45%), with average combined effect of -3.25%
On September, 11th 2012, the Energy Costs Reduction Program was announced; through the Provisional Measure 579, that does not directly affect the Company, since its concession was granted after 1995
Regulatory
Restructuring of all Company’s debts with the flexibility of covenants, increase maturity from 6.6 years to 7.2 years and reduction of average costs from CDI + 1.29% p.a. to CDI + 1.27% p.a.
Debt
MP 579: Context
Financial impact between tariff adjustments of hydrological risks due to the allocation of energy quotas
Marginal benefits in collection and potential decrease in delinquency, since energy costs will be reduced Increase in energy consumption, as a potential result of the drop in tariffs Exchange rate variation of the price of energy purchased from Itaipu will no longer be suportted by distribution companies, but by Eletrobras
3
Opportunities
Risks
Aims to reduce tariffs by 20% (Residential: 16.2% and industrial from 20% to 28%), as from February 2013, through: - Decreasing sector charges (RGR, CCC e CDE): - 7% - Renewal of Generation and Transmission Concessions: - 13%
Goal
AES Eletropaulo is not covered by MP 579 rules and has a concession valid until 2028
4
Tariff review: discussions with Aneel
Aneel excluded R$ 728 million from shielded RAB, due to the decrease in the amount of cables between the accounting records and the shielded RAB, between cycles
Shielded RAB was approved by Aneel in 2003 and was confirmed in 2007, considering a global consistency criteria
If the exclusion of the amount of cables is maintained, an addition of R$ 660 million of assets in operation (2003 BRR) should be considered
Aneel did not recognize a R$ 427 million investment performed in the incremental period on Minor Components to Main Equipments (“COM”) and Additional Costs (“CA”)
Aneel changed the benchmark company proposed in the Public Hearing, modifying the regulatory losses from 0.49% to 1%
Adequacy of the regulatory standards applied by Aneel for the valuation of real costs incurred in execution of works and recorded in accounting books
Benchmark company is an outlier Regulatory losses shall be restored to the
previous number of 0.49%
Shielded RAB
Investments
Losses
Arguments Discussion
5
Consumption evolution (GWh)¹
Consumption impacted by industrial production slowdown and migration of commercial clients to free market
1 – Own consumption not considered
Residential Industrial Commercial Public Sector and Others
Captive Market Free Clientes Total Market
4,257
1,531
2,811
708
9,307
2,097
11,404
4,331
1,489
2,809
731
9,360
1,998
11,357
3Q11 3Q12
+1.7% -2.7% -0.1% +3.2% +0.6% -4.7% -0.4%
6
Best SAIDI since 2006 and within regulatory limits
SAIDI¹ (last 12 months)
1 - System Average Interruption Duration Index Source: ANEEL and AES Eletropaulo
SAIDI (hours)SAIDI (hours)
SAIDI Aneel Reference
-22%
SAIDI¹ (YTD)
- 16%
2009 2010 2011 3Q11 3Q12
11.8610.60 10.36 10.30
8.67
10.099.32
8.68
Jan-Sep/11 Jan-Sep/12
7.806.11
► ANEEL Reference for 2012 SAIDI: 8.67 hours
7
SAIFI remains below the regulatory limits
SAIFI ¹ (last 12 months)
1- System Average Interruption Frequency Index Source: ANEEL and AES Eletropaulo
SAIFI (times)
SAIFI Aneel Reference SAIFI (times)
-16%
SAIFI¹ (YTD)
-12%
2009 2010 2011 3Q11 3Q12
6.175.46 5.45 5.42
4.79
7.87 7.39 6.93
Jan-Sep/11 Jan-Sep/12
4.05 3.38
► ANEEL Reference for 2012 SAIFI: 6.87 times
8 1 – In January 2012, the Company improved the assessment of the technical losses, which were decreased to a level of 6.1%. The number for the last twelve months ended in 3Q12 is 6.2% 2 – Values estimated by the Company to make them comparable with the reference for non-technical losses determined by the Aneel
Regulatory Reference² - Total Losses (last 12 months)
Losses level close to the regulatory reference for the 3rd Cycle of Tariff Reset
Losses (last 12 months)
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
10.7 10.3 9.8 9.4
2009 2010 2011 3Q11 3Q12
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.2
5.3 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.2
11.8 10.9 10.5 10.6 10.4
Technical Losses ¹ Non Technical Losses
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012(e) 1Q11 1Q12
654 717794
198 213
2822
46
6 11
682739 841
205 225
Own Resources Paid by the clients
9
+10%
Investments mainly focused on system expansion, maintenance and quality of client services
Investments (R$ million) 3Q12 Investments (R$ million)
¹
1 – Maintenance capex is the investment s made for the grid modernization and improvement in quality of service
Maintenance
Client Service
System Expansion
Losses Recovery
IT
Paid by the Clients
Others
141
137
154
202526
75
53
49
569
1011
37
3T12 9M12
R$ 579 million R$ 225 million
9M11 9M12 3Q11 3Q12
6,839 6,804
2,348 2,232
532 579
208 227
4,032 4,046
1,380 1,298
11,403 11,429
3,937 3,757
Net revenue ex-construction revenue
Construction revenues
Deduction to Gross Revenue 10
Gross Revenues (R$ million)
Revenues variation reflects the new tariff and industrial activity slowdown
-5%
+0.2%
9M11 9M12 3Q11 3Q12
4,2204,936
1,520 1,749
893
1,133
186358
5,113
6,068
1,7062,107
Energy Supply and Transmission Charges PMS² and Others Expenses
11
+23%
+19%
1 - Depreciation and other operating income and expenses are not included 2 - Personnel, Material and Services
Higher average cost of energy purchased due to energy from auctions and exchange rate
Operating Costs and Expenses ¹ (R$ million)
12
Manageable PMSO items below the inflation
PMS and other expenses (R$ million)
1 – Reversal of tax and labor contingencies and changes in accounting criteria for ADA 2 – Change in PMSO, excluding Pension Fund, collective bargaining and fleet maintenance 3 – Public lighting points (PMSP agreement) with reversion expected for 4Q12 and IT costs
3Q11 Non recurring 3Q11¹
3Q11: ex non recurring
Pensionplan
Collective bargaining
Vehicles mainten. and
others²
3Q12 Costs of reorganization
and restructuring
Non recurring 3Q12³
3Q12: ex nonrecurring
186 186
277 277 289 308 308 308343 358
90 1211
9 34
15
13
Ebitda (R$ million)
Ebitda reduction due to the tariff review and costs with reorganization and restructuring
1 – PMSO variation, excluding costs with reorganization and restructuring and non-recurring costs related to the 3Q11 and 3Q12
3Q11 Market and tariff review
and adjustment at Parcel B
Non recurring 3Q11 and 3Q12
Parcel A Others revenues and
expenses
Costs with reorganization
and restructuring
PMSO¹ 3Q12
642
378 272 210 174 108
(264)
(105)
(63)(36)
(34)(32)
012 8
Financial Results (R$ million)
14
Recurring financial results benefited by exchange rate and lower interest rate
Financial Results (R$ million) - ex non-recurring¹
- 33%
(50)
¹ Non-recurring items: R$ 54,3 million corresponding to the Finsocial recorded in 3Q11and recognition of R$ 18,5 million due to inflation adjustment of lawsuit involving PIS credit
(54) (69)
(43)
(11)
- 19%
9M11 9M12 3Q11 3Q12
9M11 9M12 3Q11 3Q12
(17)
15
Net Income (R$ million)
Net income variation due to tariff review and costs with reorganization and restructuring
-80%
-96%
(258)
(260)
(103) (20)
9M11 9M12 3Q11 3Q12
Net Income - AdjustedRegulatory assets and liabilities variationTariff review postponement effect
561269 51
142182
699 182
885181
348
14
3Q11 3Q12
735363
3Q11 3Q12
878 932
-51% +6%
13
Operational Cash Generation (R$ million) Final Cash Balance (R$ million)
Lower cash generation due to tariff review and higher cost of energy purchased and charges
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -2028
52 83 178
587476
686
321 40086 44
47
5154
58
62
732
138 128225
637530
744
383
1.133
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -2028
302533
228337
226436
321 400
86
44
4751
54
5862
732
388
578
275387
280
494383
1.133
Debt refinancing conclusion of R$ 1 billion resulting in more flexible covenants
17
• Increase in the average debt maturity from 6.6 years to 7.2 years
• Debt average costs decrease from 1.29% to 1.27%
• More flexible covenants
Benefits
Debt amortization schedule
After restructuring R$ 1,241 million R$ 491 million
Before restructuring
M
Debt in R$ (ex-pension plan debt )
Pension plan debt
M
Debt in R$ (ex-pension plan debt )
Pension plan debt
More flexible covenants and considering IFRS changes
Gross debt / Adjusted Ebitda < 3.5 Financial Index
FROM
Net debt / Adjusted Ebitda < 3.5 (equivalent to 4.5x Gross Debt / Adjusted Ebitda)
TO
If the limit is exceeded in any quarter Default If the limit is exceeded for two consecutive quarters
Not considered in the calculation Regulatory assets and liabilities
Considered in the calculation (concept before IFRS adoption)
Total debt recognized in liabilities Pension plan debt
Debt recognized in liabilities excluding the “corridor” concept
Considered in the calculation of debt
Compulsory loans
Out of debt calculation
The statements contained in this document with regard to the business prospects, projected operating and financial results, and growth potential are merely forecasts based on the expectations of the Company’s Management in relation to its future performance. Such estimates are highly dependent on market behavior and on the conditions affecting Brazil’s macroeconomic performance as well as the electric sector and international market, and they are therefore subject to changes.
3Q12 Results