Presented By:

Nelson B. Heller, PhDAnne Wujcik

The Heller Reports, a QED Co.September 16, 2008

View from the Catbird Seat

Past Lessons Future Opportunities

Anne Wujcik

A Glimpse of the Next 20 Years

Nelson Heller

Presented By:

Anne WujcikThe Heller Reports, a QED Company

September 16, 2008

View from the Catbird Seat

Past Lessons Future Opportunities

We’ve been at this for a while…

Right Timing

• Oregon Trail …for teletype/mainframes (1971)• Apple II, Commodore PET, TRS 80• California CUE begins (1977)• Papert working on “child appropriate” computing• Classroom Computer News, Electronic Learning• TSP, Sunburst, TLC, Davidson, ESC• Search Series, Bank Street Writer, Writing to Read• Reader Rabbit, Math Blaster, Carmen San Diego • PageMaker, Windows I.0, HyperCard• Hands on Science videodisc, Channel One• 2 million microcomputers installed in K-12

Not quite as long for Catbird

Remember when?

KK--12 Installed Base Shares12 Installed Base Shares

Mac28%

IBM27%

Apple II26%

Other2%

IBM-Compatible

17%

June 19955.4 M units

Today’s Take

Hardware The Network

Software Digital Content

Managed MANAGED

Individualized Personalized

Hardware Then

• Once a matter of installed base, OS, RAM, peripherals

• Hardware limitations• Significant legacy problems• Access a real barrier • 1:1 a distant glimmer

The Network Now

• IB specs less of an issue• ASP, SaaS, networks apps• Still some legacy problems• Access still a barrier• 1:1 a real possibility

One-to-One• Nods to Maine, Seymour Papert,

Negroponte• Real contenders in HP Mini-Note, ASUS

eee PC, Intel Classmate, Acer Aspire, Dell

General Specs:− 7-inch (800x480) or 8.9-inch (1024×600)

display − Intel Atom or Celeron CPU− 512 or 1024 MB of RAM− Linux or Windows XP− 4, 8, or 16 GB of SSD storage− 3- or 6-cell Lithium-ion battery− Wi-Fi

Contenders

HP Mini-Note eee PC

OPLC XO

Classmate2go PC

Akori AK8e

Established Players

Fourier Nova5000

AlphaSmart Dana

StudyMate

And lest we forget…

DreamWriter

iBook

eMate 300

Challenges

• Bandwidth• Balancing function/price• Managing expectations• Allowing student-owned devices

Software Then

• Drill & practice dressed up as games• Home-school crossover• ILS • Productivity tools• Multimedia tools• Format wars• Enduring titles

Digital Content Now

• Real gaming coming into play• ILS has morphed • Productivity tools still popular• Assessment a must• Content creation tools• Web 2.0• Interest in mixing and matching

Management Then

• Simple reporting of scores/time on task

• Check list item• Too much or too little• Hampered at deep-level by lack of

interoperability• No compelling need outside ILS

LMS and More Now

• Need for multiple data points • Dashboards and other tools to help

extract meaning • Much improved pass through of

information• Reporting to multiple audiences• Goal of one-stop shop • Accountability driven

Individualization Then

• Technology makes the goal of individualization reachable

• Supports differentiation• Data allows for more precise

grouping and skills targeting• Assessment prescription

Personalization Now

• Shifts the locus of control to the student• Students direct their own learning• Supported with data, portfolios,

meaningful learning plans, relevant curriculum

• Includes community membership and opportunity to develop and practice leadership

• Requires systemic and cultural change

Presented By:

Nelson B. Heller, PhDThe Heller Reports, a QED Co.

September 16, 2008

View from the Catbird Seat

A Glimpse of the Next 20 Years

Tomorrow’s Big Ideas

• Digital Mobility• Distance Learning • Platform wars: next generation

portals• OS/Web 2.0 business models• Energy and Climate

Digital mobility, 1989…

… and today

Kindle e-Book Reader

Kindle – Smart and Wireless

• Free EV-DO connectivity• 1-click wireless purchasing• 200-600 book capacity• Newspapers, blogs, web, search• Dictionary, notes, bookmarks,

clippings, search• Low power consumption

E-Ink/ePaper Display Technology

Is Kindle <-> books as iPod <-> media?

• Significant but not explosive sales• Bezos keynote at Book Expo

America• But it’s not (yet)…

• Color• Very interactive• …a Netbook

Distance Learning <-> Online Learning

• US K-12 market trends • Accelerating internationally• US K-12 acquisition flurry • Market drivers • Blended/Hybrid Learning• implications

K-12 DL/OL Insight

US K-12 DL/OL

• $50 mil/yr, growing at 30%• 42 states w significant OL pgms• 26 state-wide/state-led VS• 2014: 10% HS courses OL• 2019: 50% HS courses OL• 72% of DL districts expanding OL

in coming year

Accelerating internationally

• South Korea • European Union• Mexico • Singapore• India • China

UK-China Deal

US K-12 acquisition flurry

• GlobalScholar.com (Knowledge Universe/Ignition Partners)

• Insight Schools (Apollo Group/U of Phoenix)

• Advanced Academics (DeVry)• U of Miami HS (Kaplan) • eCollege/eClassroom (Pearson)• Penn Foster (The Wright Group)

K-12 Market drivers

Why bother?

• ADA, counter-recessionary• Credit recovery eclipsing AP• Legislators/public motivated • "Real estate leverage” and

scalability• Efficiency/Effectiveness

Blended/Hybrid Learning Cinderella?

• Digital classrooms in B/M facilities• Mainstream – not alternative -

opportunity• Flexnet, "the online education with

class“ (U of Phoenix)

implications for the K-12 market

• Books digital resources• Learning module structure• LMS/CMS• Not just anytime, anywhere: its

any way too• Content aggregation no longer

viable business model

Hurdles

• Teachers and Unions• Shortage of qualified instructors• ADA funding competition• Bandwidth• Locally authored curricula• Exam proctoring

Platform wars: next generation web portals

• Your future home• Escalating capabilities spectrum• Growing list of players

• Veterans• Newbies

• Business implications

Google Chrome: blurring Web/Local boundary

Desktop Web App Shortcuts

Google Docs Spreadsheet App

Platform Capabilities Spectrum

• Single sign-on and user authentication

• SaaS or local• Collaboration, communication,

social networking• Content archives, lockers, e-

portfolios• Rich multimedia

Capabilities - more

• Scheduling• Courseware authoring• Assessment• Off-line functionality• Portable desktops• Students, educators, parents• API friendly• Business terms

Veteran players

• Blackboard• Desire2Learn• Angel Learning• eClassroom• LearningStation• Moodle• Sakai

Blackboard School Central

Newbies

• Follett Digital Classroom• IQ-ity• Agilix's GoCourse• Etech's Studywiz Spark• VIP Tone• Editure's MySuite • Drupal

VIP Tone’s EduTone Xchange

Platform wars: business implications

• Compatibility• Pedagogy• Software architecture

• Business models• Mix’n’match• Platform intermediation• Support

• Auditing

OS/Web 2.0 business models

• Open Content: Failure to Thrive?• NROC: Nat'l Repository of Online

Courses (MITE)• Open API opportunities: Facebook• EdNET's LinkedIn Social Network

Open Content: Failure to Thrive?

• Quality• Coverage• Standardization• Alignment• Marketing/sales• Customer service, support• PD

Monterey Institute for Technology and Education

National Repository of Online Courses (NROC)

• Open Educational Resource (OER)• Courses contributed by academic

institutions• Editorial investment • Income from Institutions• Two parallel value propositions

Educator Exchanges

TeachersPayTeachers.comActivity Growth

(Thousands) 2007 2008

Registered Users 4 57

Sellers 0.3 2.8Catalog Items 3 12Page-views/

Mo 50 1,000

Open API opportunities

Facebook partners• Cramster.com• Blackboard.com• Scholastic• …

Facebook

Cramster.com/Fb

Blackboard.com/Fb

Bb sync Fb User Posts

EdNET's LinkedIn Social Network

EdNET Social Network on LinkedIn

What does Nelson Heller look like?

People You May Know

Energy and Climate: Business opportunities

“Green is the new gold”

Finding Opportunities

• Virtualization• Cloud Computing• Stressed School Budgets• 21st Century Skills, STEM • Sustainability• HESA Federal Funding

Thanks…

• The last 20 years have been a privilege, a gift

• What we do affects us, our children, their children…

• The next 20 years are crucial -- and promising – grow the gift

Contact Info

Nelson B. Heller, PhDPresident, The Heller Reports, a QED Company

858-720-1616nelson@HellerReports.com

Anne WujcikManaging Editor and Research Principal

The Heller Reports/QED(773) 594-9392

anne@HellerReports.com

http://HellerReports.com