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Presented By:
Nelson B. Heller, PhDAnne Wujcik
The Heller Reports, a QED Co.September 16, 2008
View from the Catbird Seat
Past Lessons Future Opportunities
Anne Wujcik
A Glimpse of the Next 20 Years
Nelson Heller
Presented By:
Anne WujcikThe Heller Reports, a QED Company
September 16, 2008
View from the Catbird Seat
Past Lessons Future Opportunities
We’ve been at this for a while…
Right Timing
• Oregon Trail …for teletype/mainframes (1971)• Apple II, Commodore PET, TRS 80• California CUE begins (1977)• Papert working on “child appropriate” computing• Classroom Computer News, Electronic Learning• TSP, Sunburst, TLC, Davidson, ESC• Search Series, Bank Street Writer, Writing to Read• Reader Rabbit, Math Blaster, Carmen San Diego • PageMaker, Windows I.0, HyperCard• Hands on Science videodisc, Channel One• 2 million microcomputers installed in K-12
Not quite as long for Catbird
Remember when?
KK--12 Installed Base Shares12 Installed Base Shares
Mac28%
IBM27%
Apple II26%
Other2%
IBM-Compatible
17%
June 19955.4 M units
Today’s Take
Hardware The Network
Software Digital Content
Managed MANAGED
Individualized Personalized
Hardware Then
• Once a matter of installed base, OS, RAM, peripherals
• Hardware limitations• Significant legacy problems• Access a real barrier • 1:1 a distant glimmer
The Network Now
• IB specs less of an issue• ASP, SaaS, networks apps• Still some legacy problems• Access still a barrier• 1:1 a real possibility
One-to-One• Nods to Maine, Seymour Papert,
Negroponte• Real contenders in HP Mini-Note, ASUS
eee PC, Intel Classmate, Acer Aspire, Dell
General Specs:− 7-inch (800x480) or 8.9-inch (1024×600)
display − Intel Atom or Celeron CPU− 512 or 1024 MB of RAM− Linux or Windows XP− 4, 8, or 16 GB of SSD storage− 3- or 6-cell Lithium-ion battery− Wi-Fi
Contenders
HP Mini-Note eee PC
OPLC XO
Classmate2go PC
Akori AK8e
Established Players
Fourier Nova5000
AlphaSmart Dana
StudyMate
And lest we forget…
DreamWriter
iBook
eMate 300
Challenges
• Bandwidth• Balancing function/price• Managing expectations• Allowing student-owned devices
Software Then
• Drill & practice dressed up as games• Home-school crossover• ILS • Productivity tools• Multimedia tools• Format wars• Enduring titles
Digital Content Now
• Real gaming coming into play• ILS has morphed • Productivity tools still popular• Assessment a must• Content creation tools• Web 2.0• Interest in mixing and matching
Management Then
• Simple reporting of scores/time on task
• Check list item• Too much or too little• Hampered at deep-level by lack of
interoperability• No compelling need outside ILS
LMS and More Now
• Need for multiple data points • Dashboards and other tools to help
extract meaning • Much improved pass through of
information• Reporting to multiple audiences• Goal of one-stop shop • Accountability driven
Individualization Then
• Technology makes the goal of individualization reachable
• Supports differentiation• Data allows for more precise
grouping and skills targeting• Assessment prescription
Personalization Now
• Shifts the locus of control to the student• Students direct their own learning• Supported with data, portfolios,
meaningful learning plans, relevant curriculum
• Includes community membership and opportunity to develop and practice leadership
• Requires systemic and cultural change
Presented By:
Nelson B. Heller, PhDThe Heller Reports, a QED Co.
September 16, 2008
View from the Catbird Seat
A Glimpse of the Next 20 Years
Tomorrow’s Big Ideas
• Digital Mobility• Distance Learning • Platform wars: next generation
portals• OS/Web 2.0 business models• Energy and Climate
Digital mobility, 1989…
… and today
Kindle e-Book Reader
Kindle – Smart and Wireless
• Free EV-DO connectivity• 1-click wireless purchasing• 200-600 book capacity• Newspapers, blogs, web, search• Dictionary, notes, bookmarks,
clippings, search• Low power consumption
E-Ink/ePaper Display Technology
Is Kindle <-> books as iPod <-> media?
• Significant but not explosive sales• Bezos keynote at Book Expo
America• But it’s not (yet)…
• Color• Very interactive• …a Netbook
Distance Learning <-> Online Learning
• US K-12 market trends • Accelerating internationally• US K-12 acquisition flurry • Market drivers • Blended/Hybrid Learning• implications
K-12 DL/OL Insight
US K-12 DL/OL
• $50 mil/yr, growing at 30%• 42 states w significant OL pgms• 26 state-wide/state-led VS• 2014: 10% HS courses OL• 2019: 50% HS courses OL• 72% of DL districts expanding OL
in coming year
Accelerating internationally
• South Korea • European Union• Mexico • Singapore• India • China
UK-China Deal
US K-12 acquisition flurry
• GlobalScholar.com (Knowledge Universe/Ignition Partners)
• Insight Schools (Apollo Group/U of Phoenix)
• Advanced Academics (DeVry)• U of Miami HS (Kaplan) • eCollege/eClassroom (Pearson)• Penn Foster (The Wright Group)
K-12 Market drivers
Why bother?
• ADA, counter-recessionary• Credit recovery eclipsing AP• Legislators/public motivated • "Real estate leverage” and
scalability• Efficiency/Effectiveness
Blended/Hybrid Learning Cinderella?
• Digital classrooms in B/M facilities• Mainstream – not alternative -
opportunity• Flexnet, "the online education with
class“ (U of Phoenix)
implications for the K-12 market
• Books digital resources• Learning module structure• LMS/CMS• Not just anytime, anywhere: its
any way too• Content aggregation no longer
viable business model
Hurdles
• Teachers and Unions• Shortage of qualified instructors• ADA funding competition• Bandwidth• Locally authored curricula• Exam proctoring
Platform wars: next generation web portals
• Your future home• Escalating capabilities spectrum• Growing list of players
• Veterans• Newbies
• Business implications
Google Chrome: blurring Web/Local boundary
Desktop Web App Shortcuts
Google Docs Spreadsheet App
Platform Capabilities Spectrum
• Single sign-on and user authentication
• SaaS or local• Collaboration, communication,
social networking• Content archives, lockers, e-
portfolios• Rich multimedia
Capabilities - more
• Scheduling• Courseware authoring• Assessment• Off-line functionality• Portable desktops• Students, educators, parents• API friendly• Business terms
Veteran players
• Blackboard• Desire2Learn• Angel Learning• eClassroom• LearningStation• Moodle• Sakai
Blackboard School Central
Newbies
• Follett Digital Classroom• IQ-ity• Agilix's GoCourse• Etech's Studywiz Spark• VIP Tone• Editure's MySuite • Drupal
VIP Tone’s EduTone Xchange
Platform wars: business implications
• Compatibility• Pedagogy• Software architecture
• Business models• Mix’n’match• Platform intermediation• Support
• Auditing
OS/Web 2.0 business models
• Open Content: Failure to Thrive?• NROC: Nat'l Repository of Online
Courses (MITE)• Open API opportunities: Facebook• EdNET's LinkedIn Social Network
Open Content: Failure to Thrive?
• Quality• Coverage• Standardization• Alignment• Marketing/sales• Customer service, support• PD
Monterey Institute for Technology and Education
National Repository of Online Courses (NROC)
• Open Educational Resource (OER)• Courses contributed by academic
institutions• Editorial investment • Income from Institutions• Two parallel value propositions
Educator Exchanges
TeachersPayTeachers.comActivity Growth
(Thousands) 2007 2008
Registered Users 4 57
Sellers 0.3 2.8Catalog Items 3 12Page-views/
Mo 50 1,000
Open API opportunities
Facebook partners• Cramster.com• Blackboard.com• Scholastic• …
Cramster.com/Fb
Blackboard.com/Fb
Bb sync Fb User Posts
EdNET's LinkedIn Social Network
EdNET Social Network on LinkedIn
What does Nelson Heller look like?
People You May Know
Energy and Climate: Business opportunities
“Green is the new gold”
Finding Opportunities
• Virtualization• Cloud Computing• Stressed School Budgets• 21st Century Skills, STEM • Sustainability• HESA Federal Funding
Thanks…
• The last 20 years have been a privilege, a gift
• What we do affects us, our children, their children…
• The next 20 years are crucial -- and promising – grow the gift
Contact Info
Nelson B. Heller, PhDPresident, The Heller Reports, a QED Company
Anne WujcikManaging Editor and Research Principal
The Heller Reports/QED(773) 594-9392
http://HellerReports.com