Presentation 2.1: Review of global bioenergy scenarios · bioenergy inputs of between 22 and 204 EJ...

Presentation 2.1: Review of global bioenergy scenarios Jack N. Saddler Position: Professor & Dean Organization/Company: University of British Columbia, Faculty of Forestry E-mail: [email protected] Abstract Our team at the University of British Columbia has reviewed a number of existing studies of global forest biomass potential, particularly focused on industrial fibre supply. These studies, including a number of FAO publications, were used as the basis for an estimate of global industrial fibre supply in 2010 and 2050. Using standard heating values for wood, it can be estimated that fibre surplus to industrial needs might supply between 35 and 120 EJ of energy in 2050. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios, the models used anticipated bioenergy inputs of between 22 and 204 EJ in 2050. There is a potential for bioenergy demand to exceed potential surplus measurements in all but the most optimistic scenarios. The FAO and partner institutions should undertake a new ‘Fibre Supply Analysis’ that will take fuelwood and emerging bioenergy options into account.

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Forest Products Biotechnology at UBC

Review of global bioenergy scenarios

W.E. Mabee, J.N. SaddlerForest Products Biotechnology, Department of Wood Science

Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia4043-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4

[email protected]

International Seminar on Energy and the Forest Products IndustryRome, Italy: October 30 2006


Outline1. Drivers for bioenergy development2. Global fibre supply and demand3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits4. Estimates of bioenergy demand5. Summary & Recommendations

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Looking back and forward…17

00

1740

1780

1820

1860

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Hydrocarboneconomy1800-2050

Industrial revolution

Carbohydrateeconomy1990-21??

Biomass & renewables

Oil & GasCoal

Carbohydrateeconomy

??-1800

Agricultural-based

log (primary energy use) by category


Oil Prices and World Events

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Kyoto

Protocol10 Dec 1997

Y2K 9-11 Venezuala

Oil StrikeDec 2002

- Feb 2003 Iraq War20 Mar 2003 >

(US$/barrel West Texas Crude Oil)

Hurricane Katrina29 Aug 2005

Sources: (1) WorldOil.Com. 2004,2005, 2006.

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Gasoline PricesApril 2006

$0.00 $0.25 $0.50 $0.75 $1.00 $1.25 $1.50 $1.75 $2.00

VenezuelaIndonesia

Saudi ArabiaRussiaChina

GuatemalaArgentina

MexicoJamaica

GhanaUnited StatesSouth Africa

CanadaBrazil

EcuadorIndia

AustraliaLithuania

FinlandJapanPoland

South KoreaFrance

ItalyGermany

BritainNorwayTurkey

Base Price Tax

$CDN/Litre, regular octane fuel

Turkey: ~$2.00 CDN/litre(~$6.70 US/gal.)

Venezuela: ~$0.17 CDN/litre(~$0.60 US/gal.)


Oil for Transportation

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

(% Oil usage by sector)

Transportation

Other Sectors

250% of 1950 usage

Source: (1) EIA. 2005. Annual Energy Review. US oil demand by end-use sector. http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/Dem_image_US_cons_sector.htm

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Mainland China Auto UseVehicle Sales, 1998-2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1419

98

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Trucks and commercial vehicles

Passenger vehicles

(000,000 cars/a)

Historic data ◄ ► Forecasts

Sources: (1) Crain Communications, Automotive News, March 15, 2004; (2) South China Morning Post, Wednesday, June 23, 2004, p. B4. (3) Ward's World Motor Vehicle Data, 2005; (4) Shanghai Consular Region

Report, East China Automotive Aftermarket, 2005; (5) China National Automotive Industry Consulting & Developing Corporation, 2006



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GFPM (1997)Consumption/production-oriented modelNational and regional analysis of trendsGlobal amalgamation of figures

3 Scenarios:1. Low production2. ‘Average’ production3. High production


Fibre Supply: GFPM 1994, 2010

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1994

2010

1994

2010

1994

2010

1994

2010

1994

2010

1994

2010

1994

2010

Scenario 3

Scenario 2

Scenario 1

Roundwood supply

Africa Asia Oceania Europe Former USSR

NorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

Expected roundwood supply, million m 3

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GFSM (1998)Supply-oriented modelReview of all existing studies at national/subnational levelsRegional/global amalgamation

3 ‘Futures’1. ‘Business-as-usual’2. Increased development3. Conservative or ‘green’

development


Fibre Supply: GFSM 1996, 2010, 2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010

2010

2010

2010

2010

2010

2010

Future 3

Future 2

Future 1

Plantations

Semi-Natural forests

Natural forests

Africa Asia Oceania Europe Former USSR

NorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

Expected industrial fibre supply, million m 3

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Other studies to dateMultiple IIASA reports and models (usually regional, sometimes global)

FAO Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study (1997)FAO Forestry Outlook Study for Africa (2003)FAO Trends and outlook in Latin America (2004)

UNEP Forests in Flux report

IEA Bioenergy – Global bio-energy potentials to 2050 (Smeets, Faaij et al. 2004)



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Our predictionsThree future scenarios of global forest fibre supply and global forest products demand

‘Low’ scenario - increased economic competitiveness and decrease in forest investment

‘Medium’ scenario - ‘business as usual’ case

‘High’ scenario - ‘green’ requirements push industrial plantations


Predicted Fibre Supply/Demand

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H

Afforestation

Industrial Roundwood

Industrial Plantations

Forests

2010 2050

Expected industrial fibre, million m 3

SUPPLY

CONSUMPTION

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Predicted Fibre Surplus

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H

Surplus Afforestation

Surplus

2010 2050


SURPLUS



-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H


Surplus

2010 2050


SURPLUS

BUT:Estimated fuelwood consumption equals

industrial roundwood consumption

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-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H


Surplus

2010 2050


SURPLUS

Some of this (25-50%) may be sourcedby non-industrial forests and trees outside forests

(From the Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study)



-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H


Surplus

2010 2050


SURPLUS

The rest will come from industrial forests

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Corrected Fibre Surplus/Deficit

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H

LOW

MED

IUM

HIG

H

Fuelwood


Surplus

Deficit

2010 2050


INDUSTRIAL SURPLUS

FUELWOOD CONSUMPTION

Scenario: 75% Fuelwood Demand from Industrial Forests


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108



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2005: 7 million ha red attack

2005: 15 million ha 'spread over' (green, red, grey)

million ha

Cumulative impacts - area

Den

mar

k5

mill

ion

ha

Port

ugal

10 m

illio

n ha

Sources: 1) Council of Forest Industries 2005.

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New wood pellet capacity4 new wood pellet plants, to use 10.5 million m3 of wood over 10 years

4.7 million m3 increase in annual allowable cut for bioenergy

~23% increase in the AAC for the Prince George & Quesnel regions alone


Potential bioenergy supplyHeating value of wood: 15 GJ/t (20% moisture)

18-22 GJ/t (BDT)

Wood energy potential (surplus industrial fibre):– 2010: 5.7 to 33.0 EJ – 2050: 13.3 to 119.8 EJ

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Modelling future biofuel useModel ran globally for GHG emissions

Used IPCC marker and illustrative scenarios

Used predictions of biomass energy use that reflected technological and social changes

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IPCC Scenarios 1. A1 Scenarios – rapid and successful development

A1T – new technologies enable economic dev.A1FI – fossil intensive futureA1B – balanced approach with new tech, fossil fuels

2. A2 Scenario – lower trade, reduced tech change

3. B1 Scenario – sustainable development, green goals

4. B2 Scenario – neutral approach following current trends


Global Energy Demand, IPCC

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Predicted Energy Demand (EJ)

~2,300 EJ (A1FI)

~2,200 EJ (A1B)

~1,700 EJ (A2)

~1,300 EJ (A1T, B2)

~500 EJ (B1)

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Global Bioenergy Demand, IPCC

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Predicted Energy Demand (EJ)

~370 EJ (A1T, A1FI, A1B)

~300 EJ (B2)

~160 EJ (A2)

~70 EJ (B1)


Predicted RPPs in Canada

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

~5.4 EJ (A1FI)

~7.5 EJ (A2)

~3.6 EJ (A1B)~2.9 EJ (A1T, B2)

~1 EJ (B1)

Expected production, Refined Petroleum Products (EJ)

Source: (1) Statistics Canada (2006); (2) IPCC (2003)

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Predicted Biofuels 2100

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Expected production, Refined Petroleum Products (EJ)

3.6 EJ(High)

0.1 EJ(Low)



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Summary of estimatesEstimated supply (industrial roundwood surplus), 2050:

13.3 to 119.8 EJ

Estimated demand (all sources of bioenergy), 2050:

22 to 204 EJ

Questions:How much bioenergy can the forest provide in reality?How will bioenergy impact existing forest products?Can fuelwood be used to supply industrial bioenergy?


RecommendationsFAO and partners should undertake a new ‘Fibre Supply Analysis’ that takes fuelwood and emerging bioenergy options into account

The use of new technologies to more efficiently extract bioenergy at all stages of forest operations must be considered

Champions need to be identified in our organizations to move this project forward

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Presentation 2.1: Review of global bioenergy scenarios · bioenergy inputs of between 22 and 204 EJ...

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