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G10 FX Strategy | April 2017

Stuart Bennett

Head of G10 FX Strategy

stuart.bennett@santandergcb.com

020 7756 4136

2

FX performance - how did we get here?

Source: Bloomberg, Santander

75

85

95

105

115

125

Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17

EUR -8%

USD +22%

GBP -14%

G10 currency trade weighted indices = 100 at 1 July 2014

JPY +4%

3

Financial markets’ volatility remains subdued

Source: Bloomberg, Santander

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

VIX Index

EUR/USD 1M ATM Vol

4

Local, rather than global risk, as a FX factor

Source: Bloomberg, Santander

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

-40 -37 -34 -31 -28 -25 -22 -19 -16 -13 -10 -7 -4 -1

Correl EUR/USD and GER-ITA 10Y spread Correl EUR/USD and GER-FRA 10Y spread

1mth correlation between EUR/USD and European political risk premia, evolution from 40 days before Italian referendum (Dec 2016) and French election 1st round (Apr 2017)

5

The electoral cycle’s hold over the EUR

Source: Bloomberg, Santander

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

361.05

1.055

1.06

1.065

1.07

1.075

1.08

1.085

1.09

20-Jan 03-Feb 17-Feb 03-Mar 17-Mar 31-Mar 14-Apr

EUR/USD % chance of Le Pen victory (Oddschecker) (rev), rhs

6

An ambiguous UK election for the Pound

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Santander

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

AUD EUR JPY CHF CAD NZD GBP

5Y Range Current net speculative position as % of open interest 5Y Average

Net Long

Net S

hort

7

Bad news is priced in – and then some…

Source: Bloomberg, Santander

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

GBP effective exchange rate index (rev), rhs UK ILO unemployment rate

UK unemployment is 4.7%...

...but the Pound is trading as if it is closer to 9%

8

A quick Sterling rebound may be unlikely

Source: Bloomberg, Santander

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

-43 -38 -33 -28 -23 -18 -13 -8 -3 2 7 12 17 22 27 32 37 42

GBP/USD 43 weeks before and after the UK left the ERM in 1992

GBP/USD 43 weeks before and after the EU referendum

9

Trump stimulus = stronger USD?

Source: World Bank, Santander

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

US 2Y S&P 500 USD

6M correlation with US economic surprise index

6M correlation with US economic survey surprise index

10

Taking a ‘BAT’ to US trade flows = stronger USD?

Source: World Bank, Santander

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%M

exic

o

Ca

na

da

Vie

tna

m

Ma

laysia

Thaila

nd

Sin

gap

ore

S K

ore

a

Co

lom

bia

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Ch

ina

Ge

rma

ny

Ch

ile

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Ja

pa

n

Eu

rozo

ne

Peru

New

Zeala

nd

Ita

ly

Ind

on

esia

Ind

ia

UK

Sw

ed

en

Fra

nce

Bra

zil

Ru

ssia

No

rwa

y

Spain

Po

land

Austr

alia

Exports to US as a share of GDP

11

FX over reaction – MXN

Source: Bloomberg, Santander

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

MXN real effective exchange rateMexico exports to US as a % of total US imports, rhs

12

Is a stronger USD needed/wanted?

Source: Bloomberg, Santander

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.0070

80

90

100

110

120

130

1Q92 1Q95 1Q98 1Q01 1Q04 1Q07 1Q10 1Q13 1Q16

USD Trade Weighted Index

Net trade contribution to US GDP growth SAAR QoQ %, 3Y MA, rev (rhs)

Net trade makes negative contribution to US GDP

growth as USD strengthens

13

Monetary policy “convergence” – ex BoJ

Source: Bloomberg, Santander

70

90

110

130

150

20

40

60

80

100

120

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

JPY monetary base/US monetary base, Index Jan 1990 =100 USD/JPY, rhs

14

FX Forecasts – where are we going?

Source: Santander

Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18

EUR-USD 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.13 1.13 1.14

GBP-USD 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.25

EUR-GBP 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91

USD-JPY 113 116 118 120 118 119

EUR-CHF 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.14 1.14 1.16

USD-CAD 1.28 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.24 1.24

AUD-USD 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73

NZD-USD 0.68 0.68 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69

EUR-NOK 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6

EUR-SEK 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.8

USD-BRL 3.22 3.36 3.50 3.63 3.72 3.80

USD-MXN 18.0 18.0 18.3 20.0 18.5 18.0

USD-CLP 650 660 670 660 670 675

USD-COP 2900 2950 3000 3100 3200 3300

USD-ARS 16 17.2 19 19.4 19.8 20.3

EUR-PLN 4.28 4.32 4.20 4.19 4.18 4.16

EUR-CZK 27 27 26 26 26 26

EUR-HUF 311 313 310 308 307 305

USD-RUB 64 62 58 56 52 52

15

Disclaimers and Risk Disclosures ANALYST CERTIFICATION:

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report: Stuart Bennett

The analyst(s) referenced in connection with the section for which he or she is responsible may have received or will receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of the Santander group, including profits derived from investment banking activities.

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16

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17

Disclaimers and Risk Disclosures (cont.) Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. This report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or delivered or transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of Banco Santander, S.A..

Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report.

The material in this research report is general information intended for recipients who understand the risks associated with investment. It does not take into account whether an investment, course of action, or associated risks are suitable for the recipient. Furthermore, this document is intended to be used by market professionals (eligible counterparties and professional clients but not retail clients). Retail clients must not rely on this document.

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