Present and future phosphorus use in

Europe: food system scenario analyses

Kimo van Dijk

Oene Oenema & Jan Peter Lesschen

Wageningen University, kimo.vandijk@wur.nl

Sustainable Phosphorus Summit 2014, Montpellier, France, 1 September 2014

Overview

Phosphorus (P) cycling

Present P flows in Europe

Sustainable P use options in society

Dynamic food system model

Future P use scenario analyses

Summary & conclusions

Geological versus anthropogenic cycles

RESOURCE

RESERVES

SINKS

Society

Crops

Animals

Industry & retail

Consumers

Non-

food

Losses Inputs

[90% fertilizer,

and other

mineral P use]

Geological cycle

Direct

IMPACTS

Anthropogenic cycle

Phosphorus use in the EU-27 in 2005

Detergent,

wood, paper

& fibers

Crops, fish,

food products &

mineral additives

Animal feed,

mineral additives

& live animals

Mineral fertiliser,

seeds & pesticides

Solid & liquid

organic waste

Organic wastes

Wood, paper &

fibers

Slaughter

residues, solid &

liquid waste

Crops &

food products

Manure losses

Live animals

Leaching & runoff

Seeding materials

Input Output

Soil [150,000]

Flows & stocks in Gg = Mkg = kton P per year

Global fertilizer P consumption 1961-2010

FAOSTAT data 2010

Fertilizer P consumption in EU-27 in 2010

FAOSTAT data 2010

Animal feed P origin in EU-27 in 2005

Source: Miterra-Europe model, CAPRI & FAOSTAT data 2003-2005

Agronomic P balances in the EU

Annual regional agricultural P balances [kg P/ha] for EU-15 in 2000

Estimated cumulative P balances [kg P/ha] of EU countries during 1991–2005

Source: Csathó & Radimszky 2012

Source: Csathó &

Radimszky 2012

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

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1.6

Do

me

stic

fo

od

P s

up

ply

[kg

/ca/

year

] Animal

Plant

Domestic food P supply in EU-27 in 2005

Domestic food P supply necessary to fullfill human dietary P intake requirements at consumption level

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

Minimum P intake requirement

Mean EU P intake

Maximum P intake level

Reuse of organic waste in EU-27 in 2005

Based on Barth et al. 2008

Sludge destinations in EU-27 in 2010

Source: P-Rex, FP7 project, www.p-rex.eu; based on Eurostat

2010, Milieu Ltd 2010 & Destatis 2011

P concentrations in rivers and lakes in EU

regions, period 1990 - 2005

Source: European Environment Agency, 2007

Potential phosphorus losses in society

Three ‘types’ of potential P losses:

● Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, co-firing or use in the cement industry

● Accumulation: in agricultural soils or the environment

● Export: flows with unclear destinations

Avoidable and unavoidable losses

Point and diffuse sources

Direct and indirect actors

Transition towards sustainable P use

•remove non-essential P inputs (e.g. detergents)

•match P requirements more closely (precision agriculture)

•utilise legacy P stores

Realign P inputs

•optimise input management

•minimise runoff and erosion

•strategic retention zones

Reduce P losses to water

•avoid wastage

•improve utilization efficiency

•adopt integrated production systems

Recycle P in bioresources

•recover P in societies' wastes

•produce fertilizer substitutes

Recover P in wastes

•influence dietary choice

•define end-user P requirements

•re-connect crop and animal production systems

Redefine P in the food chain

Withers, Van Dijk, et al. (submitted)

P recycling potential in EU-27

[Gg P/year] Total Recycled Potential

Sewage sludge 297 115 182

Biodegradable solid waste 130 38 92

Meat & bone meal 128 6 122

Total (minimum) 427 153 274

Total (maximum) 555 160 396

Mineral fertiliser use 1448

Manure use 1763

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

EU-27 P use scenario analyses

Objectives & research questions

To develop a dynamic model for the analysis of the effects of changes in drivers and nutrient management strategies on P dynamics in the food chain.

What would be the P dynamics & food production in EU-27 in case of a stop of P import via

● Q1: mineral fertilizers?

● Q2: mineral fertilizers and animal feed?

Q3: What are effects of best management practices (BMPs) on food production and P use efficiency?

Dynamic Food System model

Mass balance principle

Data: Miterra-Europe, CAPRI,

FAOSTAT, Eurostat, reports,

articles and experts

EU-27 at country level,

timesteps of one year

Entire food system + non-food

P imports, exports, losses and

internal flows

Flows described dynamically as

function of sector input

Crop P uptake as function of

soil P stock and P application

Scenarios & best management practices

The scenarios are:

● BAU: present (~2005), Business as Usual

● S1: no P import via fertilizer

● S2: no P import via fertilizer + compound feed

● S3: as S2 + BMPs

The best management practices (BMPs) are 90 % less:

● biowaste + waste water P losses (HC)

● forestry sector losses (NF)

● slaughter waste losses (FP)

● stable manure losses (AP)

No changes in other drivers and factors, such as population, agricultural area, crop types etc.

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Ave

rage

cro

p P

up

take

[kg

P/h

a/ye

ar]

BAU

SI

S2

S3

Per ha EU-27 crop P uptake per scenario

for 2005-2300

50 %

25 %

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

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2500

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so

il P

sto

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kg P

/ha]

BAU

SI

S2

S3

Per ha EU-27 soil P stock per scenario for

2005-2300

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

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lgar

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ta

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rtu

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vaki

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stri

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nga

ry

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rus

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BAU

S1

S2

S3

Per capita food P supply per Member State

per scenario in 2050

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

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P s

up

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[kg

P/c

a/ye

ar]

BAU

SI

S2

S3

Changes in per capita food P supply in

EU-27 per scenario for 2005-2300

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

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Ave

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dry

mat

ter

yie

ld [

kg P

/ha/

year

]

BAU

SI

S2

S3

Changes in dry matter crop yield in EU-27

per scenario for 2005-2300

50 %

33 %

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

Conclusions for the present state

Europe is largely dependent on P imports via:

● Mineral fertilizers (60%), animal feed & additives (20%),

food (10%) & non-food materials (10%)

Ongoing P accumulation in agricultural soils, especially in western Europe by P surplusses

Various recycling rates, generally low (except manure):

● Sewage sludge P recycling ranging from 0 - 90%

● Compost P re-use ranging from 0 - 70%

Significant P losses via:

● Waterways: sewage discharge, leaching & erosion

● Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, infrastructure

High potential to improve P use efficiency

Conclusions for future scenarios

Soil P is an important stock to take into account in P dynamics, because of its buffering capacity and large size (~150.000 Gg P)

A stop on P fertilizer import has a large effect on food production, mainly on the longer term

A stop on P import via fertilizer and animal feed makes the effect even more pronounced, causing a larger and earlier drop in food production

The effects can be mitigated by the implementation of best management practices in nutrient management

Additional data is necessary, especially for downscaling to the regional level

Thank you for

your attention

Questions? Comments? Suggestions? kimo.vandijk@wur.nl / kimovandijk@xs4all.nl Twitter: @kimovandijk Website: kimovandijk.weebly.com

Additional literature and links

Presentation “Phosphorus use in Europe”, European Sustainable P conference, 6-7 March

in Brussels: http://www.phosphorusplatform.eu/images/Presentation_KimovanDijk.pdf

Outcomes 2nd Scientific European Phosphorus Workshop in Wageningen:

http://www.wageningenur.nl/sepw2013

Lesschen et al. 2013. Options for closing the phosphorus cycle in agriculture; Assessment

of options for Northwest Europe and the Netherlands. edepot.wur.nl/289653

K.A. Wyant, J.R. Corman, and J.J. Elser. Phosphorus, Food, and Our Future. Oxford

University Press, New York City, New York, USA.

http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199916832.do#.UcHr6fY6VVM

European Commission - Sustainable Phosphorus Use:

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/IR7.pdf

Dutch Nutrient Platform: www.nutrientenplatform.nl

European Sustainable Phosphorus Platform: www.phosphorusplatform.eu