Prepared January 31, 2014

United States Department of Agriculture Animal Plant Health Inspection Service

Veterinary ServicesSurveillance, Preparedness and Response Services

Sheep and Goat Health Center

Fiscal Year 2013 ReportOctober 1, 2012 to September 30, 2013

National Scrapie Eradication Program

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The National Scrapie Eradication Program focuses on seven primary areas:

• Education and prevention• Animal identification and compliance• Surveillance [Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter Surveillance (RSSS) and on-farm]• Tracing and testing positive and exposed animals• Cleanup of infected and source flocks through genetic susceptibility testing and

indemnification of susceptible exposed animals• Monitoring of previously infected and exposed flocks • The Scrapie Free Flock Certification Program (SFCP)

Program Update

As of September 30, 2013, the percent of cull sheep found positive at slaughter and adjusted for face color was 0.014 percent (Chart 1). This measure of prevalence has decreased by 90 percent since slaughter surveillance started in FY 2003.

The scrapie program is now in the “tail end” of the eradication process with few animals found positive during slaughter sampling and the annual variation in the number of animals found positive between years falls within the error of the measurement, given the sample size and 95% confidence limits. As a result there is no statistically significant change in the annual detection rate of scrapie between FY 2012 and 2013 in slaughtered animals.

Introduction

Scrapie Surveillance InitiativeDuring the summer of 2013, an outreach program was initiated that focused on producers and accredited veterinarians. The regulatory scrapie slaughter surveillance (RSSS) program misses sheep and goats that are found dead or euthanized on the farm. The outreach effort provided information to producers and accredited veterinarians on collection and submission of samples from dead or euthanized sheep/goats over 18 months of age. More information is available at the

APHIS Scrapie Website

State Scrapie Sampling MinimumsThe National Scrapie Eradication Program establishes annual sheep sampling minimums for each state, and tracks the States’ level of compliance with meeting these minimums. These state minimums were implemented in FY 2010 to ensure adequate geographical representation, so that APHIS can find the last remaining cases and document freedom from scrapie. State sampling minimums are established based on the population demographics of mature sheep in each State. Since FY2011, the program has also proposed annual state sampling minimums for goats. Calculation used to derive the sampling minimums is described in the National Scrapie Surveillance Plan. The plan can be viewed and downloaded from the APHIS scrapie website:

National Scrapie Surveillance Plan

The percentage of the sampling minimum for sheep and for goats that was achieved by each state in FY 2013 is depicted in Figures 1 and 1a, respectively; a State’s percentage is based on the total number of sheep and total number of goats sampled through Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter Surveillance (RSSS) and on-farm surveillance.

Surveillance

Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter Surveillance (RSSS)RSSS started April 1, 2003. It is a targeted slaughter surveillance program which is designed to identify infected flocks. Samples have been collected from 397,912 animals since April 1, 2003. There have been 469 NVSL confirmed positive animals (461 classical cases and 8 Nor98-like cases) since the beginning of RSSS. 43,228 samples were collected in FY 2013, 7,563 of which were from goats. Collection site locations and the states that comprise the Eastern and Western Regions are shown in Figure 2. The number of animals collected for FY 2013 by month and by region where collected is shown in Chart 3. A monthly comparison of RSSS collections by fiscal year is displayed in Chart 4. Chart 5 depicts RSSS collections by region of collection and by region of eartag origination from FY 2003 through FY 2013.

Percent of RSSS samples collected by face color and species from FY 2003 through FY 2013 is plotted in Chart 6. The map in Figure 3 shows RSSS sampling by state of collection; Figure 4 shows RSSS sampling by state of origination (application).

Six black-faced, 1 mottled-faced (greater than 40% black), and 1 white-faced sheep tested positive for scrapie in FY 2013. The distribution of positive cases by state of tag origination (application) is depicted in Figure 5. Chart 7 and Chart 8 show the percent of samples that have tested positive for each face color from FY 2003 through 2013; Chart 1 shows the percent of cull sheep found positive at slaughter and adjusted for face color. Positive animals from the same flock and Nor98-like cases are not included in these charts. A retrospective 6 month rolling average of the percent positive, black-faced sheep sampled at RSSS collections sites is shown in Chart 9. Success in tracing RSSS positive animals to flock of origin is shown in Chart 10. Changes in traceability are not statistically significant due to the small numbers of cases.

Surveillance

On-Farm SurveillanceTesting of animals in the field has always been part of scrapie surveillance (regulatory field cases and live-animal testing). As the National Scrapie Eradication Program moves closer towards meeting the goal of identifying the last remaining cases of classical scrapie by 2017, finding and testing all sheep and goats meeting targeted sampling criteria is even more important.

1,363 sheep and 722 goats were tested on-farm for FY 2013. Through trace-forward investigations and flock clean-up plans, three black-faced, one mottled-faced, and three white-faced sheep tested positive in FY 2013. One Nor98-like case was diagnosed in September 2013, but this is not included in the total number of positives. Three clinical suspect goats tested positive. Two were meat-type twin goats residing in the same herd in Maryland. The other was a Nigerian dwarf goat from Arizona confirmed positive in July. The number of animals tested on-farm by month and by species for FY 2013 is shown in Chart 11.

Total Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing45,313 animals were sampled for scrapie testing in FY 2013:

• 43,228 RSSS samples and 2,085 on-farm samples [includes regulatory testing (necropsy and live-animal) and on-farm surveillance] (Chart 12);

• Of which 37,028 were sheep and 8,285 were goats.

Distribution of sampling by type (RSSS or on-farm) and by species is shown in Chart 13.

Surveillance

Positive Cases and New Infected/Source FlocksIn FY 2013, 18 cases of classical scrapie (eight through RSSS and ten through on-farm surveillance) and 1 Nor98-like case were confirmed by the National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL)(Table 1 and Figure 6). As of September 30, 2013, the number of confirmed positive cases in goats since FY 2002 is 34; the most recent case was a Nigerian dwarf goat, confirmed positive in July 2013 (Figure 7).

Field cases are positive animals that were tested as part of a disease investigation including potentially exposed, exposed and suspect animals, and other animals sampled on-farm.

Infected and Source Flocks At the beginning of FY 2013, there were 3 flocks with open infected or source statuses (Table 2 and Figure 8). During the year, 8 new source flocks and 3 new infected flocks were reported (Figure 9) and 8 flocks completed a clean-up plan and were released (Figure 10). As of September 30, 2013, 6 scrapie-infected and source flocks had open statuses (Figure 11). The ratio of infected and source flocks released to newly identified infected and source flocks for FY 2013 = 1 : 1.4. New infected and source statuses from FY 1997 to FY 2013 are shown in Chart 2.

Indemnity Approximately 396 sheep and goats were indemnified in FY 2013. A breakdown by species and registration status is depicted on Chart 14. The average cost for indemnity and disposal was approximately $186 per animal.

Positive Cases and Infected/Source Flocks

Scrapie Flock Certification ProgramAt the end of the FY, there were 1,049 flocks enrolled in the SFCP—500 complete monitored, 439 certified, 61 export monitored, 13 export certified, and 36 selective monitored (Figure 12). SFCP open statuses by fiscal year from FY 1997 to FY 2013 are depicted in Chart 15. A new revision of the SFCP Standards was published June 20, 2013. The objectives of the revision were to increase surveillance in SFCP flocks and reduce costs associated with flock inspections, while providing a mechanism for flocks to become export certified. The “Complete Monitored” category was eliminated. Flocks with “Complete Monitored” and “Certified” status had the option of converting to the “Export” category or “Select” category by November 18, 2013.

The revised SFCP Standards can be viewed at or downloaded from the APHIS scrapie website:SFCP Standards

Sheep and Goat Premises in Scrapie Database Compared to NASS 2007 Census DataFigure 13 and Figure 14 are maps showing the percent of sheep and goat flocks/herds by state that have been assigned premises/flock identification numbers in the scrapie database.

This report is based on information and test results available at the time of report generation. Numbers are subject to change due to later reporting of test results and updates in the database.

Scrapie Flock Certification Program

Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from the same flock. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, and 1 in FY 2011).

(Chart 1)

0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

0.12%

0.14%

0.16% % Pos '03

% Pos '04

% Pos '05

% Pos '06

% Pos '07

% Pos '08

% Pos '09

% Pos '10

% Pos '11

% Pos '12

% Pos '13

Percent of RSSS Samples that TestedPositive for Classical Scrapie

Weighted by Face ColorFiscal Years 2003 to 2013

(Chart 2)

020406080

100120140160180

FY '9

7FY

'99

FY '0

1FY

'03

FY '0

5FY

'07

FY '0

9FY

'11

FY '1

3

SOURCEINFECTED

Infected and Source Flocks New Statuses by YearFiscal Years 1997 to 2013

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL≤ 20%

21 - 40%

41 - 60%

61 - 90%

91 - 100%

> 100%

(Figure 1)

Percent of Sampling Minimum Achievedin FY 2013—RSSS and On-farm Surveillance—Sheep

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

* Proposed sampling minimums for goats.

≤ 20%

21 - 40%

41 - 60%

61 - 90%

91 - 100%

> 100%

(Figure 1a)

Percent of Sampling Minimum Achievedin FY 2013—RSSS and On-farm Surveillance—Goats*

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VAUT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

West

East

(Figure 2)

States with RSSS collection sites

RSSS Sample Collections FY 2013177 collection sites in 39 states & sent to 12 laboratories

(Chart 3)

0500

1,0001,5002,000

2,5003,0003,5004,000

4,5005,000

10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

East

West

Total

Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collectedby Month, VS Region Where Collected, and Total

FY 2013

Month

(Chart 4)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13

Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collectedby Month

Fiscal Years 2009 to 2013

Month

Percent RSSS SamplesFY 2003-2013

FY 03

FY 05

FY 07

FY 09

FY 11

FY 13

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

East West

(Chart 5)

FY 03

FY 05

FY 07

FY 09

FY 11

FY 13

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

East West No State ID

By Region of Sample Collection By Region of Eartag Origination

Surveillance Samples Collected at Slaughter FY 2003-2013

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

FY '03

FY '05

FY '07

FY '09

FY '11

FY '13

Other Sheep*GoatWhite FaceMottled <1% BlackMottled >1% BlackBlack Face

* Other Sheep: hair sheep, and those with gray, red, brown, or unknown face color.

(Chart 6)

(Figure 3)

Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter SurveillanceNumber of Samples Collected, FY 2013

BY STATE OF COLLECTION

(Figure 4)

Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter SurveillanceNumber of Samples Collected, FY 2013BY STATE OF TAG ORIGINATION

(Figure 5)

Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter SurveillanceNumber of Positive Samples, FY 2013BY STATE OF TAG ORIGINATION

Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from same flock. Mottled- and white-faced combined. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, and 1 in FY 2011).

(Chart 7)

0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.9%1.0%

% Pos '03% Pos '04% Pos '05% Pos '06% Pos '07% Pos '08% Pos '09% Pos '10% Pos '11% Pos '12% Pos '13

Percent of RSSS Samples that TestedPositive for Classical Scrapie

by Face Color Fiscal Year 2003 – 2013

0.00%0.02%0.04%0.06%0.08%0.10%0.12%0.14%0.16%0.18%0.20%

% Pos '08

% Pos '09

% Pos '10

% Pos '11

% Pos '12

% Pos '13

(Chart 8)

Percent of RSSS Samples that TestedPositive for Classical Scrapie by Face Color during each

Fiscal Year (2008 – 2013)

Includes only sheep with test results reported. Includes multiple positives from same flock.

(Chart 9)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

% Positive

Retrospective 6 Month Rolling Average of Percent Classical Scrapie Positive Black-Faced Cull Sheep

Sampled at Slaughter

* April – September, 2003

(Chart 10)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Untraceable

Traceable

Average % Traceable FY03-FY13

86%

Investigations of RSSS Positive AnimalsFY 2003 – FY 2013

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-

13Apr-1

3M

ay-13

Jun-13

Jul-1

3Aug-1

3Se

p-13

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

GoatsSheepTotal

On-Farm Surveillance Testingby Month and Species

FY 2013

(Chart 11)

Number of Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing by Quarter—FY 2013

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

On-FarmSurveillance

RSSS

(Chart 12)

(Chart 13)

83%

17%

RSSS

Sheep Goats

65%

35%

On-Farm

Sheep Goats

RSSS and On-Farm Surveillance Testingby Species—FY 2013

(Table 1)

STATESHEEP GOATS

RSSS On-Farm RSSS On-Farm

AZ 0 0 0 1

(CA)* 0 (1) 0 0

IA 2** 4 0 0

IL 1 1 0 0

OH 2 0 0 0

OK 1 0 0 0

OR 1 0 0 0

MD 0 0 0 2

PA 1 2 0 0

TOTALALL STATES 8 7 0 3

Scrapie Confirmed Cases in FY 2013

* Nor98-like case indicated in parentheses and is not counted in the total.** One RSSS case was traced back to IA but could not be traced to its flock of origin.

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RIPA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD - 2

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA(1)

AZ1 AR

AK

AL

Reported by State of ID tag. Collected in FY 2013 and confirmed by EOY reporting date.Field cases include animals removed from infected/source flocks, so State totals often include several animals from the same flock.Nor-98 like scrapie case is indicated in parentheses and is not counted in the total.

(Figure 6)

Scrapie Confirmed Cases in FY 2013

Type of Scrapie

RSSS Cases

Field Cases

Total

Classical 8 10 18

(Nor98-like) (0) (1) (1)

Total 8 10 18

21/1

1

1

2/4 1/2

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD – 2

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AR

AK

AL

* Most recent positive goat confirmed in July 2013.

1

5

8

13

13

(Figure 7)

Scrapie Cases in Goats FY 2002 – FY 2013

Type of Scrapie

RSSS Cases

Field Cases

Total

Classical 0 34 34

(Nor98-like) (0) (0) (0)

Total 0 34 34

AZ1*

Scrapie Infected and Source FlocksFY 2013 Overview

Infected/Source flocks with an open status at the start of FY 2013 3

New Infected/Source flocks in FY 2013 11Infected/Source flocks released in FY 2013 8

Infected/Source flocks currently with an open status at the end of FY 2013 6

(Table 2)

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK1

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KY - 1KS

INIL1

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

Open source flocks—3

(Figure 8)

Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks: Open Statuses as of October 1, 2012

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA - 1

OR1

OK1

OH2

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD - 1*

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL2

ID

IA2

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AZ1* AR

AK

AL

New source flocks—8New infected flock—3

New Scrapie Infected and Source FlocksFY 2013

* Goat herd

(Figure 9)

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA -1

OR

OK2

OH2

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD - 1

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL2

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

Flocks released—8

Released Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks FY 2013

(Figure 10)

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR1

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KY - 1KS

INIL1

ID

IA2

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AZ1 AR

AK

AL

Open source flocks—5Open infected flocks—1

Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks: Open Statuses as of September 30, 2013

(Figure 11)

Registered and Club Goats

36%

Nonregistered Sheep

59%

Registered and Club Sheep5%

Nonregistered Goats0%

Total number of animals indemnified: 396 (ER-172, WR-224).

Total amount spent: indemnification and disposal $73,568. (ER-$26,784.; WR-$46,784.) .

The average cost: $186 per animal.(Chart 14)

Indemnity Claims FY 2013

Scrapie Flock Certification Program: Participating FlocksAs of September 30, 2013

Total Enrolled Flocks—1,049• Complete Monitored—500• Certified—439• Export Monitored—61• Export Certified—13• Selective Monitored—36 (Figure 12)

WY6

WV18

WI43

WA26

VA18

UT29

TX22

TN-9

SD8

SC22

RI-13PA111

OR19

OK16

OH19

NY21

NV5

NM5

NJ-37NE10

ND2

NC-26

MT25

MS15

MO12

MN23

MI19

ME49

MD-23

MA-43

LA11

KY-25KS10

IN32

IL11

ID16

IA7

HI11

GA22

FL 20

DE-1

CT-19

CO18CA

65

AZ1 AR

10

AK2

AL17

VT34

NH-23

* As of September 30, 2013.

(Chart 15)

FY '9

7FY

'99

FY '0

1FY

'03

FY '0

5FY

'07

FY '0

9FY

'11

FY '1

3

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Complete Mon-itored

Certified

Export Certi-fied

Export Moni-tored

Select Moni-tored

SFCP Open Statuses by Fiscal Year

FY 1997 to FY 2013*

(Figure 13)

Percent of Sheep Flocks Reported by NASS (2007 Census Report) Assigned Flock Identification Numbers

As of September 30, 2013

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL≤ 20%

21 - 40%

41 - 60%

61 - 90%

91 - 100%

> 100%

(Figure 14)

Percent of Goat Herds Reported by NASS (2007 Census Report) Assigned Flock Identification Numbers

As of September 30, 2013

≤ 20%

21 - 40%

41 - 60%

61 - 90%

91 - 100%

> 100%

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL