Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center July 2008

1

Using the American Community Surveyfor Rural Research

Dr. Richard RathgeProfessor and Director

North Dakota State Data Center

Rural Sociological Society Annual Meeting

Manchester, NH

July 31, 2008

Presentation Objectives:

1. Highlight some key challenges of using ACS for rural research

2. Illustrate the need for a conceptual shift in the way we approach rural research when using ACS data

3. Initiate dialogue of implications for research and policy

Key Challenges for rural areas

Effects of longer period estimates Consequences of smaller sample

size Rule changes and their impact on

trend analyses

Period Estimates … ACS vs. Census

Census (conceptually point in time April 1st)

ACS accumulates 12 months (1-year estimate) 36 months (3-year estimate) 60 months (5-year estimate)

Think of shutter speed on camera

Rural Statistical Areas Joint Project

Nebraska ACS Data

Thanks to Jerry Deichert for data

Omaha city was an ACS test sites: 1997-2004 Can examine 1, 3, 5-year data

Key Challenges for rural areas

Effects of longer period estimates Consequences of smaller

sample size Rule changes and their impact on

trend analyses

ACS sample size is smaller than Census

One-year sample is 2.5 % of HHs vs 16.7% for Census long form Over five-year period, ACS sample size

is 12.5 percent

Therefore ACS sampling error will be larger

Cass County, North Dakota (population 132,585)

Grand Forks County, North Dakota

People Moving to North Dakota Within the Past Year by State of Origin: 2006 ACS

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Comparison of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year Estimates of the Percentage of Persons in Poverty for Omaha, NE: 1999-2005 ACS

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Single-year estimate

11.4 12.0 11.0 12.3 13.5 13.9 15.3

Single-year MOE

0.8 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5

Three-year estimate

11.4 11.7 12.1 13.2 14.2

Three-year MOE

0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

Five-year estimate

11.9 12.5 13.2

Five-year MOE 0.5 0.5 0.6

Suppression Issues

ACS using suppression similar to the 1970 and 1980 decennial census

Applied to base tables in 1 and 3-year data

Use “data release rules” to protect user from tables “whose reliability is unacceptable”

Suppresses entire table not just unreliable cells

41 cells which willcause suppressionfor smaller counties

Key Challenges for rural areas

Effects of longer period estimates Consequences of smaller sample

size Rule changes and their impact

on trend analyses

ACS income not compatible with decennial census data

Decennial census asks income in previous calendar year

ACS asks income in previous 12 months Both are inflation adjusted However, Bureau test results show decennial

income consistently lower than ACS (4.4% nationwide)

Bureau suggests users “exercise caution”

Residency rules very different

Decennial census- “usual place of residence “using 6+ month” rule.

ACS – current residence during the last 2-months. Attempting to better count seasonal

residents

Once, Only Once, And In The Right Place

Residence rules panel charged “to examine census residence rule issues and make recommendations for research and testing to develop the most important residence rules for the 2010 census.”

Observations from ACS Question 25 (seasonal housing) testing

Preliminary assessment is that seasonal housing units do not appear to be an issue for areas receiving 1-year estimates

Seasonal housing units are expected to cluster at smaller geographic levels

Remarks from Susan Schechter and Deborah Griffin, ACS Office Staff

1999-2001 Wisconsin test counties Michael Starsinic, Census Bureau

What lessons have we learned thus far?

Need to be more mindful of our data users

Rethink how we interpret and disseminate data to the public

Examine ways in which we can better educate ourselves and data user

The Message and the Media:The 2005 ACS Rollout

We reviewed 57 articles in 44 newspapers around the nation that appeared August 15-16 First availability of estimates for all areas

greater than 65,000 population Not just the NY Times and Washington

Post; other major metros (Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Houston Chronicle) and smaller papers (Toledo Blade, Lexington Herald-Leader, Anchorage Daily News. . .)

Research from the Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council

Key Interest: Change Over Time

Three-fourths of articles featured estimates of change from 2000 to 2005, mostly using the long-form sample for 2000

But only 2 articles expressed caution about comparing the long-form sample and the ACS

Research from the Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council

Census Bureau Resources

ACS website on Census Homepage

Technical documents/user guides being produced by Census Bureau

State Data Center websites

Census Bureau’s comparison matrix

Demographic Presentation 2008

Dr. Richard Rathge, Director North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo,

ND NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105 Richard.Rathge@ndsu.edu Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-

9730 URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc