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Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
1
North Dakota StatewideHousing Needs Assessment
Dr. Richard RathgeProfessor and Director
North Dakota State Data Center
Review of Findings and Data Products
2005 Statewide Housing Conference
Bismarck, North Dakota
February 23, 2005
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Presentation Objectives:
2. Review of main findings
3. Preview data products produced by the needs assessment project
1. Provide an overview of the 2005 Statewide Housing Needs Assessment
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Purpose of the Housing Assessment:
1. Provide an overview of current housing trends
2. Show population dynamics and corresponding shifts in housing
3. Provide objective assessment of future housing needs
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Key Components of the needs assessment
Detailed Data Regarding:• Demographic/economic trends• Housing stock• Affordable housing• Housing conditions• Special populations• Housing supply• Housing demand• Land use issue
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Key Components of the needs assessment
Survey of key leaders • Represent all levels of geography• Represent major stakeholders in housing• Key themes
• Housing supply/demand issues• Housing quality and affordability• Barriers to development• Special needs populations• Concerns regarding housing policy/programs
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Products
1. Final report• Printed document serves as summary• Contains 12 tables profiling housing needs• Includes key leaders survey results
2. Detailed tables• Series of nearly 100 tables expanding detail of report• Each table includes all geography
3. Website -- (SHARP) statewide housing assessment resource project
• User select geography and tables• Links to all products
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Overview of Key Findings
1.Review Population Changes
2.Explore Historical Housing Patterns
3.Examine Housing Demand
4.Look at Key Leaders Survey
5.Finish with Recommendations
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Population Changes
1. Population consolidation
2. Shifting age distribution
3. Changing household composition
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Population Changes
1. Population consolidation
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution,1900-2000
92.789 86.4 83.4
79.473.4
64.8
55.751.2
46.7 44.1
7.311 13.6 16.6
20.626.6
35.2
44.3
53.3 55.9
48.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Per
cent
RuralUrban
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses.
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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North Dakota Cities by Size, 1960 and 2000
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
urban
rural
Population Number Percent Number Percent
25,000+ 4 1.1 4 1.1
10,000-24,999 3 0.9 5 1.3
5,000-9,999 5 1.4 3 0.8
2,500-4,999 3 0.9 3 0.8
2,000-2,499 7 2.0 6 1.6
1,500-1,999 15 4.3 10 2.7
1,000-1,499 26 7.4 22 5.9
500-999 45 12.9 50 13.5
200-499 114 32.7 76 20.5
Less than 200 127 36.4 192 51.8
Total 349 100.0 371 100.0
20001960
15 15
2000 data include 10 Census Designated Places (CDPs).
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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North Dakota Cass County
McIntosh County
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Population Density
Cass
Dunn
Ward
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Stutsman
Williams
Wells
Barnes
Slope
Kidder
Walsh
McHenry
Sioux
Mountrail
Divide
Burleigh
Benson
Burke Cavalier
Emmons
Bottineau
PierceRamsey
Richland
Logan
Dickey
Traill
Mercer
Billings
Nelson
Adams
TownerRolette
Bowman
Pembina
Eddy
Hettinger La Moure
Steele
Oliver
Grand Forks
Sargent
Sheridan
Ransom
GriggsFoster
Renville
McIntosh
GoldenValley
Persons Per Square MileLess than 66 to 1617 to 4546 or more
Population Density in North Dakota by County: 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000.
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Population Changes
2. Shifting age distribution
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Net Domestic Migration Rates Per 100 Persons in the United States by County: 1990 to 1999
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's
Figure 2. Age-Specific Net Migration: Farm
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's
Figure 4. Age-Specific Net Migration: Metro
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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1980 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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1990 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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2000 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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2005 Projections – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
22
2010 Projections – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
23
2015 Projections – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
24
18901900
19101920
19301940
19501960
19701980
19902000
2002
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
180,000
Age 0 to 9 Age 65 and Older
Population of Persons Ages 0 to 9 and Ages 65 and OlderNorth Dakota: 1890 to 2002
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
25
Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Populationin North Dakota by County: 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
Cass
Dunn
Ward
Grant
McLean
McKenzie
MortonStark
Stutsman
Williams
Wells
Barnes
Slope
Kidder
Walsh
McHenryMountrail
Sioux
Benson
Divide
Burleigh
Burke Cavalier
Emmons
Bottineau
PierceRamsey
Richland
Logan
Dickey
Traill
Mercer
Billings
Nelson
Adams
TownerRolette
Bowman
Pembina
LaMoure
Eddy
Hettinger
Steele
Oliver
Grand Forks
Sargent
Sheridan
Renville
Ransom
GriggsFoster
McIntosh
GoldenValley
Less than 15%15% to 21.9%22% to 27.9%28% or more
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Populationin North Dakota by County: 2020Source: North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020, Sept. 2002
Less than 15%15% to 21.9%22% to 27.9%28% or more
Cass
Dunn
Ward
Grant
McLean
McKenzie
MortonStark
Stutsman
Williams
Wells
Barnes
Slope
Kidder
Walsh
McHenryMountrail
Sioux
Benson
Divide
Burleigh
Burke Cavalier
Emmons
Bottineau
PierceRamsey
Richland
Logan
Dickey
Traill
Mercer
Billings
Nelson
Adams
TownerRolette
Bowman
Pembina
LaMoure
Eddy
Hettinger
Steele
Oliver
Grand Forks
Sargent
Sheridan
Renville
Ransom
GriggsFoster
McIntosh
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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1.8% - 8.62%8.63% - 12.78%12.79% - 16.2%16.3% - 20.68%20.69% - 34.72%
The Elderly – 65 plusSource: U.S. Census Bureau.
Persons Age 65 and Older as a Percentage of Total Persons by State: 2000
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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The Elderly – 85 plus
0 %- 1.14%1.15% - 1.81%1.82% - 2.52%2.53% - 3.52%3.53% - 6.64%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Persons Age 85 and Older as a Percentage of Total Persons by State: 2000
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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PERCENT CHANGE IN PERSONS , NORTH DAKOTA:2000 to 2010 & 2000 to 2020(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
-1.41
-6.10
22.14
11.94
-1.18-4.22
13.23
47.53
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
YOUTH (Ages 0-24 ) WORKFORCE (Ages25-44)
PRE-RETIREES (Ages 45-64)
ELDERLY (Ages 65+)
Persons
Percent Change
2000 to2010
2000 to2020
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Population Changes
3. Changing household composition
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Household Composition – North Dakota1980 2000 % Change
All Households 227,664 257,152 13.0
Family Households 166,702 166,150 -0.3
Without Children Under 18 76,815 85,697 11.6
Married 67,621 75,431 11.5
Not Married 9,194 10,266 11.7
With Children Under 18 91,603 80,453 -12.2
Married 81,939 62,002 -24.3
Not Married 9,664 18,451 90.9
Non-family Households 60,147 91,002 51.3
Single 52,028 75,420 45.0
With Non-Relatives 8,934 15,582 74.4
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Households by Type
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Ho
use
ho
lds
Married withChildren
Marriedwithoutchildren
Other familywith children
Other familywithoutchildren
Nonfamilyhoushold
North Dakota Households by Type: 1960 to 2000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Household TypesNorth Dakota Households by Type: 2000
Other non-family households
6%
Persons living alone29%
Other family without children
4%
Other family with children
7%
Married without children
30%
Married with children
24%
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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PERSONS LIVING ALONE:1-Person Households: 1940 to 2000(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
1-
Pe
rso
n H
ou
sh
old
s
Total
Renter-OccupiedOwner-Occupied
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Percentage Change in the Number of Elderly Householders Living Alone (65 Years and Older)North Dakota by County: 1990 to 2000
Decrease: -28% to -12%Decrease: -11% to 0%Increase: 1% to 15%Increase: 16% to 39%
Cass
Dunn
Ward
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Stutsman
Williams
Wells
Barnes
Slope
Kidder
Walsh
McHenry
Sioux
Mountrail
Divide
Burleigh
Benson
Burke Cavalier
Emmons
Bottineau
PierceRamsey
Richland
Logan
Dickey
TraillMercer
Billings
Nelson
Adams
TownerRolette
Bowman
Pembina
Eddy
Hettinger La Moure
Steele
Oliver
Grand Forks
Sargent
Sheridan
Ransom
GriggsFoster
Renville
McIntosh
GoldenValley
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Housing Trends
1. Shifts in housing stock
2. Growing need for affordable housing
3. Housing conditions good
4. Growing demand for special population
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Housing Trends
1. Shifts in housing stock
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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NORTH DAKOTA HOME OWNERSHIP RATES:Annual Homeownership Rates: 1984 to 2003(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
55
60
65
70
75
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Per
cen
t
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Owner-Occupied Housing Units
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Percent Change in Owner-Occupied Housing Units by County: 1990 to 2000
Percent Change: 1990 to 2000LossGain: 0% to 19.9%Gain: 20% to 59.9%Gain: 60% or more
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Renter-Occupied Housing Units
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Percent Change in Renter-Occupied Housing Units by County: 1990 to 2000
Percent Change: 1990 to 2000LossGain: 0% to 12.9%Gain: 13% to 36.9%Gain: 37% or more
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Age of Housing
Cass
Dunn
Ward
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Stutsman
Williams
Wells
Barnes
Slope
Kidder
Walsh
McHenryMountrail
Sioux
Benson
Divide
Burleigh
Burke Cavalier
Emmons
Bottineau
PierceRamsey
Richland
Logan
Dickey
Traill
Mercer
Billings
Nelson
Adams
TownerRolette
Bowman
Pembina
LaMoure
Eddy
Hettinger
Steele
Oliver
Grand Forks
Sargent
Sheridan
Renville
Ransom
GriggsFoster
McIntosh
GoldenValley
1940 - 19511952 - 19591960 - 19671968 - 1976
Median Year Housing Structure Built in North Dakota by County: 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census, Summary File 3, Table H35
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Housing Units by Structure
Housing Units by Structure Type in North Dakota: 1960 to 2000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1 UnitStructures
2 UnitStructures
3-4 UnitStructures
5+UnitStructures
MobileHomes/Other
Hou
sing
Uni
ts 1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Housing Trends
2. Growing need for affordable housing
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Affordable Housing
Benchmark: housing should be within 30% of household income (statewide MFI=$52,500)
- 57% of current owner- or renter-occupied homes are not affordable to those below 30% MFI
- 21% of current owner-occupied and 17% of renter-occupied homes are not affordable to those between 31-50% MFI
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2005
(SOURCE: CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES: MARCH 17, 2004)
STATE
NUMBER OF AUTHORIZED
VOUCHERS AS OF JULY 2003
IMPACT OF ADMINISTRATION PROPOSAL IN 2005
REDUCTION IN VOUCHER
SUBSIDY FUNDING
REDUCTION IN NUMBER OF FAMILIES
ASSISTED IF CUTS WERE CARRIED OUT
BY ELIMINATING VOUCHERS
INCREASE IN ANNUAL RENT IF
CUTS WERE CARRIED OUT BY
RAISING RENT BURDENS
North Dakota 7,225 $3,212,266 876 $435
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2009
(SOURCE: CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES: MARCH 17, 2004)
STATE
IMPACT OF ADMINISTRATION PROPOSAL IN 2009
REDUCTION IN VOUCHER
SUBSIDY FUNDING
REDUCTION IN NUMBER OF FAMILIES ASSISTED IF CUTS WERE CARRIED
OUT BY ELIMINATING VOUCHERS
INCREASE IN ANNUAL RENT IF CUTS WERE
CARRIED OUT BY RAISING RENT
BURDENS
North Dakota
$8,560,170 2,102 $1,132
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Housing Trends
3. Housing conditions good
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Housing Conditions
General housing conditions in North Dakota are very good
- Less than ½ percent of owner-occupied units lack complete plumbing or kitchen facilities
- About 1% of owner-occupied units and 4% of renter-occupied units are overcrowded (more than 1 person per room)
- ½ percent of renter-occupied lack plumbing and 1% lack kitchen facilities
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Housing Trends
4. Growing demand for special populations
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Special Populations
Survey of homeless indicate unmet need for 2,136 persons --- 40% are families with children
-Need for low and moderate-income elderly-- cost burden exceed 30% of household income for 15% of elderly (55 years and over) owner-occupied units and 35% in renter-occupied units
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Projected Housing DemandFindings: Between 2000-2015
• Age of householder• 15-34 will decline 8% (nearly 5,000)• 35-54 decline 15% (over 15,000)• 55-74 will increase 50% (over 29,800)• 75 and over will increase 38% (over 12,500)
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Projected Housing DemandFindings: Between 2000-2015
• Income of householder• Below 30% MFI will increase 15% (7,426)• 31-50% MFI will increase 12% (4,789)• 51-60% MFI will increase 9% (3,490)• Above 115% will increase 8% (2,555)
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Projected Housing DemandFindings: Between 2000-2015
• Type of householder• First-time homebuyer will decline 9% • Upscale homebuyer will increase 8% • Low-income homebuyer will increase 6%• Moderate homebuyer will increase 8%• Elderly homebuyer will increase 42%
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Projected Supply
Findings• Statewide, current trends indicate 1% growth
between 2000-2015 (additional 30,562 units• Demand driven forecast more robust (additional
increase of 32,157)• Regions I, III, VII demand forecast greater than
current housing growth pattern (due to elderly)• Grand Forks unique
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Key Leaders SurveyMethod• Telephone survey of 183 key leaders
• County, major city, reservation, realtors, apartment association, builders, etc.
• Topics included:• Housing supply/demand• Housing quality & affordability• Barriers to development• Special needs population• Policy/program concerns
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Key Leaders Survey
Findings• Economic health of communities is good• Visionary leadership• Important local issues
• Economic development• Retention of young adults• Aging population• Infrastructure• Social issues/special populations
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Key Leaders Survey
Findings• Sufficient public housing• Housing stock in good repair (except reservations)
• Affordable housing has changed little (exceptions larger cities and Region V)
• ¼ concerned about barriers to development• Zoning, cost, available infrastructure, multi-
family unit restrictions, lot size, agricultural land
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Recommendations• Top priority--- elderly housing issues• Older homes and need for rehabilitation• Increase demand for extremely low-, low-, moderate-
income homes• Special population needs
• Homeless• Low-income elderly
• Task force to explore innovative programs• Cuts in Federal Programs
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005
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Statewide Housing Needs Assessment Presentation 2004
Dr. Richard Rathge, Director North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND
NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105 [email protected] Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730 URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc