Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahya- Pr Abdelghani Toumi11 CHAPTER THREE 3-PLANNING PROCESS 3.1...

Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahya-Pr Abdelghani Toumi 11

CH

APTER

TH

REE

3-PLANNING PROCESS

3.1 Integrated project planning

3-2The work breakdown structure 3-3 Network Logic (CPM)

3.4 Estimating fundamentals :Time, cost and budget

3.5 Scheduling : Gantt chart and PERT3-6 OUTPUTS

Summary key points


3.1 Integrated project planning

Module Overview

• Planning Process : why plan?• Project plan : what inside?• Integrated project planning model• Managing the change to the plan


The Planning Process

Parker’s ProverbPlanning is like insurance.

It’s too expensive until you need it, and then it’s

too late.


Why would you not plan?

Why plan?

As much or as little as you need to demonstrate to stakeholders that you have thought of everything, and have a plan to get there.

.


Why would you not plan?

Why plan?

The better we plan, the better we can execute on time and within budget to meet customer expectations and organizational objectives.


Why plan?

To manage Project we need constructing a model

The model can be simple or complex

The Triple constraint ( time, cost, performance) is a simple three element model of a project system


What is in a project plan?

Your plan may include:

• Introduction– Overview,– Deliverables, – Constraints, – Definitions




• Management structure– Project reporting,– Communication Plan, – Risk Management, – Change management




• Planning

– Activity schedule– Resource identification, – Resource allocation– Project Charter, – Quality Assurance Plan, – Test and/or Training plans, – Implementation Plan.


Building a Foundation for Success

• If the problem is poorly defined — limit scope and work to defining it!

• If the solution is not clear — limit scope and work to analyzing options and recommending one!


PLANNING PROCESSIn the early phases: this is preparing the Project Management Plan and defining exactly what will happen.

In later phases : it is ensuring that the earlier planning is still valid, and incorporating any changes in resources or contingencies arising.


Planning Process


Planning Process

Activities in this group are:

Develop Project management Plan

Scope Planning

Scope definition Create Work Breakdown Structure

Activity Definition Activity Sequencing

Activity Resource Estimating Activity Duration Estimating

Schedule Development Cost Estimating

Cost Budgeting Quality Planning

Human Resource Planning Communications Planning

Risk Management Planning Risk Identification

Qualitative Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk Analysis

Risk Response Planning Plan Purchases and Acquisitions

Plan Contracting


Project Planning

The project planning process consists of the following. This a basic description of the steps:

1.Setting the project start date

2. Setting the project completion date

3. Selecting the project methodology or project life cycle to be used


Project Planning

4.Determining the scope of the project in terms of the phases of the selected project methodology or project life cycle

5.Identifying any predetermined interim milestone or other critical dates which must be met.

6.Listing tasks, by project phase, in the order in which they might be accomplished.


Project Planning

7. Estimating the personnel necessary to accomplish each task

8. Determining skill level necessary to perform each task

10. Determining task dependencies- Which tasks can be done in parallel- Which tasks require the completion of other tasks before they can start


Planning Is Done Phase by Phase

UpdatedProject

Plan

ProjectPlan

DesignDocuments

Concept Documents

Problem

Work

Scope

StartEndStartEndStart

Const.

Phase

DesignPhase

ConceptPhase


Integrated Project planning•Integration is a process of synthesizing different concepts into a unified Whole

•Project management is primarily an interactive activity:

Most product failure is at the interface of subsystemsThe biggest complaint of people in projects is poor communications Senior managers expect PM taking a strategic and holistic perspective on the project

•We adopt the model published by the Project Management Institute


Integrated Project planningPMI model

SCOPESCOPE

COSTCOST

QUALITYQUALITYHUMAN

RESOURCES

HUMAN RESOURC

ES

Project Planning

Project Planning

TIMETIME

RiskRisk

COMMUNI-

CATION

COMMUNI-

CATION

PROCUR-EMENT

PROCUR-EMENT

The team performs integration with respect to the other knowledge area


3-2 Work Breakdown Structure

Module Overview

• Definition• The elements of a WBS• WBS structure• 6 steps to develop a WBS• Tips and tricks


Work Breakdown Structure

Abram’s AdviceWhen eating an

elephant, take one bite at a time.


Work Break Down structure WBS

A definition• Awork breakdown structure(WBS) is a

hierarchic decomposition or breakdown of a project or major activity into successive levels, in which each level is a finer breakdown of the preceding one.

• The WBS may be drawn in a diagrammatic form (if automated tools are available) or in a chart resembling an outline.


Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

• A structured definition of all the work of a project:– The things we have to do.– The documents we have to produce.– Any other tangible items we have to

create.

• The WBS includes both management work and technical work.


Thesaurus (3)

• Deliverables may also be called:– Sub-deliverables Cost accounts– Outputs Significant– Work packages

accomplishments

• Activities may also be called:– Tasks– Work packages

• Collectively, they are called work-items.


Using the WBS

• Activities will be used as inputs to:– Effort and cost estimating– Sequencing and scheduling

• Deliverables may be used as:– Scheduling milestones– Progress measurement check points


My New House

Project Management

Residential Structure

SwimmingPool

Foundation Framing Finish Work

…

…

………

WBS Organized byKey Component

… …


WBS Organizedby Phase

New Product

Project Management

Requirements Document

User Acceptance

Start-up Meeting

Interview Notes Report

…

…

………

… …


WBS For project phases

The first WBS level for the life cycle would be: WBS number Task Description

1.0 Project initiation

1.1 Draft project plan

2.0 Analysis phase

2.1 Plan user interviews

2.2 Schedule users interviews

3.0 Examination and test

4.0 Design

5.0 Test

6.0 Implementation

7.0 Post implementation review


WBS — Tips & Tricks

• Decompose as much as you can now; revisit detail as needed.

• Remember to include a branch for project management!

• Characteristics of the lowest level:– One clear owner– Able to estimate effort and duration


Tips & Tricks (cont’d)

• Developing a WBS can be a real challenge if:– You don’t understand the scope.– The scope is poorly defined.

• The activities (lowest level) should be the same regardless of how the deliverables (upper levels) are organized.


Sample: WBS of wastewater plant


Exercise: WBS (1)

• Follow the “Six Simple Steps” to develop a WBS on the slide for your group project:

– Use sticky-notes to capture the information.

– Generate detail for one branch at a time.– Document additional assumptions as

appropriate.

• Try to develop 2 or 3 levels


Exercise: WBS (2)

• Document your lessons learned:– About the project you were

planning.– About developing a WBS.


Summary of Key Points

• There is no “one right way” to construct a work breakdown structure.

• AWOW — all the work and only the work.

• Post-Its really help!


3-3 Network Logic Module Overview

• Basic sequencing terminology• Common errors to avoid• Tips and tricks


Network Diagrams Activity scheduling

• The most popular method is called Activity on Node or activity on Arrow.

• The task (activity) is represented by a node or Arrow, which also shows the time expected.

• Take the list of tasks from your Work Breakdown Structure

• Determine any tasks that depend on other tasks.

• Attach resources to each task (people cannot do two jobs at once).

• Determine the timeline for the project.


Activity-on-Arrow Network Fundamentals


Activity A

Activity C

Activity D

Activity B

Activity E

Subnet =Design Activities

Req’ts Done

Design Done

Milestone

Dependency• B is predecessor• E is successor

Sequencing Terminology


Exercise: Basic Concepts

• Working in teams, create a network logic diagram for the breakfast “project” on the next slide.

• Assume unlimited resources and use finish-to-start dependencies.

• Sequence the activities as shown but note any problems, issues, or assumptions.


Exercise : Breakfast Project

• Juice — get glass, get juice from fridge, pour juice, put glass with juice on table.

• Coffee — get coffee pot, fill pot with water, put coffee in pot, make coffee, get cup from cabinet, pour coffee, put cup with coffee on table.


3-4 Estimating Fundamentalstime, cost and budget

Module Overview

• What do we estimate and why?• The estimating process


Estimating Drive Time


What Do We Estimate?

• Effort — labor units required to complete an assignment; usually hours of a person’s time.

• Duration — work periods required to complete an assignment.

• Elapsed time — calendar periods required to complete an assignment.

• Cost — monetary value of labor, materials, and contracts.


• Planning Horizon : the quality estimates of the current events are close to 100% accurate but are reduced for more distant events.

• Long duration Project increases uncertainty in estimates

• A new technology : implementing a new technology with a poor written scope specifications result in errors in estimating

The Estimating Process : Factors to consider


1-People : Accuracy of estimates depends on the skills of

people making the estimatesHow people skills are near to the work to do?Team harmony ?

2-Project Structure : the type of project structure chosen influence time and cost estimates ( Example : a dedicated project team is speedy but costly as a permanent structure)



3-Other non-project factors : Holidays, legal limits

4- Responsibility: estimates should be done by persons most familiar with the task

5-Delphi estimating Method : Use several persons to estimate and find consensus

6-Time unit : specific time units to use should be selected early in the development phase

7-Adding risk assessment to the estimates : help to avoid surprises to stakeholders



The Estimating Process Review

• Define and document:– Work to be done (based on scope)– Assumptions (about scope or work)– Range of possible outcomes– Relevant supporting detail

• Review and revise as necessary


Effort Estimates andProject Budgets

Rules are made for the guidance of wise folk and the

obedience of fools.Anonymous


Module Overview

• Costing : some approaches• Converting estimates into budgets• Cost reserves• Getting your budget approved


Costing

The easiest way to cost the project is to take the WBS and estimate the costs of each activity. Other considerations include capital costs, disbursements, costs of delays, contingencies.

Probable Time Estimate

PERT is a management tool that is suited for research and development projects which are generally non-repetitive in nature and is sometime called “ once through” projects.


Three time estimates namely

1. Optimistic time-estimated minimum time an activity will it take. Its probability is about 1 in 100 or 1%

2. Most Likely or probabilistic time- the estimated normal length of time an activity takes. This is the time expected that will most frequently required for an activity. 3. Pessimistic time-the estimated maximum time that will be required under the worst conditions. Its probability is about -1 in 100 or 1%



25 30 50

Most likely

Optimistic PessimisticPossible Outcomes

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Occu

rren

ce

Budget =Expected value

=(O + ML + P) / 3

35

Converting Estimates into Budgets

Terminologies in Statistics

• Expected Value-is the weighted average of all possible values that this random variable can take on.

• Variance-is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. It is one of several descriptors of a probability distribution, describing how far the numbers lie from the mean(expected value).

• Standard Deviation-measure of variability or diversity used in statistics and probability.



Summing Ranges• First, for each activity calculate:

– Expected value = EV =( optimistic + most likely + pessimistic ) / 3

– Variance = (( pessimistic – optimistic ) / 5 ) 2

• Then, for the project calculate:– Project EV = sum of activity EVs– Project variance = sum of activity

variances– Project standard deviation = square

root of project variance


56

Problem No.1

Interpretation Problem No. 1

• Mean EV= 41.57 or 42• Standard Deviation=20

This means that almost all activity can be finished(71% assuming a normal distribution) within 20 days of the mean (22 days-62 days).

5/7=71Prepared by Pr Sulayman

Alyahya-Pr Abdelghani Toumi 57


Exercise No. 1 . Determine the variance & standard deviation. Include the interpretation

Opt ML Pess

Send email to experts 3 5 8

Create tracking mechanism 2 3 5

Review 100 documents 75 100 125

Develop design document 125 150 250

…


Exercise No. 2: Effort, Budgets, and Reserves

• Develop range estimates of effort for the activities at the lowest level of your WBS.

• Record the estimates on the form provided:– Calculate the expected value for each.– Calculate the variance for each.

• Sum the most likely values and the expected values.


… continued

• Calculate the standard deviation of your project estimate:– Sum the activity variances.– The square root of the sum is the

project’s standard deviation.

• Estimate a general cost reserve for your project. Be prepared to justify it.


3-5Project Schedule

You can take your horse to the river, you

can not force it to drink water

Arab proverb


3-4 Scheduling Module Overview

• Gantt chart• Critical path calculations• Preliminary schedules• Baseline schedules• Resource constraints• Schedule reserve


B (14)Start Finish

F (16)

A (18) D (11)

E (13)B (14)Start Finish

F (16)C (12)

Which Path Is Most Likely to Cause Delay?

Activity (Duration)


Definitions: Critical Path

• The network path:– Which is most likely to cause the

project to be late.– With the longest duration.– Which determines the shortest total

length of the project.– With the least amount of “float.”

Definition of Terms

* Critical Path- the longest route in the network of activities representing a project. Activities along the critical path are called Critical activities of the project that may result of the delay in the entire project.


* Earliest start (ES)- This is always equal to the earliest event at the beginning of an arrow which is sometimes called i-node. The point of an arrow is called j-node

It is the first day after the physical assumption of the activity.


i-node J-node

* Earliest Finish (EF). This is the earliest possible time that an activity can be finished. It is equal to its earliest start plus its duration or time. Therefore:

EF = ES + duration

* Latest Start(LS). This is the latest time that an activity can begin and not delay the completion time of the overall project. Prepared by Pr Sulayman

Alyahya-Pr Abdelghani Toumi 67

If the earliest start and latest start times are the same then the activity is critical.

Latest Finish(LF). This is the latest time that an activity can be finished and not delay the completion time of the overall project.

LS = LF-durationPrepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahya-Pr Abdelghani Toumi 68

As with start times, the activity is critical if the earliest finish and latest finish times are the same.

* Total Float(TF)- The span of time an activity can be delayed after its earliest start time without delaying the project completion. This is the difference between the earliest start time and the latest start time. TF = LF-EF or TF= LS-ES


Free Float (FF)- The span of time an activity can be delayed after its ES without delaying the ES of any succeeding actual activity that may be availed. It is equal to the ES of any of its succeeding real activities minus the EF of an activity in question. This is also equal to the earliest time at the i-node of the next succeeding real activity minus the EF of the activity.FF=ES-(ES + duration)



Critical Path Calculations

• Forward pass — to determine the project’s “natural end date” based on its early start and early finish dates.

• Backward pass — to determine late start and late finish dates.


Critical Path Calculations

A (6)

F (9)

H (9)

L (17)

Start Finish

B (10)

M (8)

Q (11)

ES EF

LS LF

1 6

7 15 16 23

1 10

11 19 20 30

11 27

4 9

14 22 23 30

11 19 20 30

1 10

14 30

= 0

= 7EF = ES + Duration – 1

LS = LF – Duration + 1

Activity (Duration)

Problem: Using the following tabulation,(a) draw the network diagram. (b) determine the TF and FF. and (c) identify the critical activities & days


Activity Duration

ES EF LS LF TF FF Critical

1-2 10

1-3 6

2-4 8

2-5 13

3-5 12

4-5 4

5-6 2

Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahya-Pr Abdelghani Toumi

74

Total (Path) Float

• The amount of time an activity may be delayed without affecting the project’s currently predicted early finish date.

• Total (Path) Float =Late Start – Early Start

• Total (Path) Float is a measure of scheduling flexibility.


GANTT CHART


GANTT CHART EXAMPLE


Two Kinds of Schedule!

• Preliminary schedule:– Used for enterprise resource planning,

project approvals– Produced when specific resources are not

yet known, start date not yet confirmed

• Baseline schedule:– Used for project planning and control– Produced when resource availability is

confirmed, start date is set


Building a Preliminary Schedule

• For effort-based activities, calculate the expected duration:

– Budgeted effort hours / hours per period / percent available

– Example: 24 hours / 6 work hours per day / 50% available = 8 days duration

• For all other activities, use historical information or your best judgment.


Exercise: Critical Path

• Develop activity durations for each of the items in your WBS as described:

– Use the expected value of your effort estimates and a 6 hour work day where appropriate.

– Use your best judgment otherwise.

• Determine a preliminary critical path for your project assuming that resources will be available when needed.


Summary of Key Points

• Network logic is independent of durations and resources.

• Scheduling is fundamentally a resource management issue.


Problem: Using the following tabulation,(a) draw the network diagram. (b) determine the TF and FF. and (c) identify the critical activities & days

ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION

PRECEDINGACTIVITY

ACTIVITYTIME

A Application approval

None 5 weeks

B Construction plan A 15

C Traffic study A 10

D Service availability check

A 5

E Staff report B,C 15

F Commission approval

B,C,D 10

G Wait for construction

F 170

H occupancy E,G 35


CRITICAL PATH

• As managers, we must be sure that activities A,B,y,F,G and H are done on time. If any of those activities is late, the project will be late

• Other paths are not critical because they can waste some time without slowing the project. For example, activity C, can take up to 5 extra weeks and not hold up the project.


PERT developed in the 1950s to control large defense projects, and have been used routinely since then

'Critical Path Analysis' sounds very complicated, but it's a very logical and effective method for planning and managing complex projects.

Critical Path Analysis

Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahya- Pr Abdelghani Toumi11 CHAPTER THREE 3-PLANNING PROCESS 3.1...

Documents

Transcript of Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahya- Pr Abdelghani Toumi11 CHAPTER THREE 3-PLANNING PROCESS 3.1...