preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... ·...
Transcript of preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... ·...
![Page 1: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Soil ecosystem services and farmers economy:
preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project
Katarina Hedlund Lund university Sweden
![Page 2: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Land use projections
• Mitigate climate change • Higher demand of food,
timber, clean water – Production of goods
is increasing – Natural habitats are
declining – Increased intensity of
land management
![Page 3: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Agriculture and soil threats
Declinein: Leadto:soilcarbon soilerosionbiologicalac2vity soilcompac2onsoilbiodiversity reducedresistance
topestsnutrientreten2on eutrofica2on
Intensification of agriculture
![Page 4: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Soil is a natural capital
Soil Ecosystem Services
Nutrient retention Carbon storage Water retention Resistance to pests Regulation of above ground diversity
Goods
Food Feed Biofuel Clean water Easthetic values Cultural values
Soil biodiversity
Actions and inter-actions among soil organisms
feeding digging burrows mycorrhiza
![Page 5: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Soil biodiversity
![Page 6: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
How can we use ecosystem services for promoting a sustainable use of soils in agriculture?
SOIL SERVICE research project
FP7 research project (2008-2012) http://www.kem.ekol.lu.se/soilservice/index.html
![Page 7: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
SOIL SERVICE project aims
• Link soil biodiversity and ecosystem services in agricultural production
• Value soil ecosystem services as a part of farmers economy
• Predict future land use changes, based on farmers economy and sustainable use of soils
![Page 8: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
SOILSERVICE,decisionmaking&science
Ecosystems&biodiversity
Ecosystemservices
Decisions
Ins2tu2ons(farmers,EC)
Values
agricultural land use
Biodiversity tool box
Economy tool box
Information sustainable soil use
incentives
(Decision loop after Daily et al 2009)
![Page 9: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Biodiversity tool box
Soil biodiversity
Ecosystem services
Quantify ES:
nutrient retention carbon retention resistance to pests stability of services
Agricultural land use:
crop rotation biofuel crops pastures
Link diversity to functions:
biodiversity food webs
![Page 10: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
SOIL SERVICE study regions
Agricultural regions for economy and soil biodiversity studies
![Page 11: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
SOIL SERVICE Field studies
Gradient of intensive crop rotation to pastures in each region
Sweden Greece
![Page 12: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Results: diversity & food web structure
Predators Microbial feeders Microorganism
Pastures
Intensiv crop rotation
Predators Microbial feeders Microorganism
![Page 13: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Results: soil carbon retention
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CZ GR SE UK
C %
crop
rotation
pasture
![Page 14: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Results: nutrient and water retention
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
CZ GR SE UK
ng N
LFA
/g s
oil
Biomass AM fungi
Crop Rotation Pasture
AM fungi: Plant nutrient uptake (P, N)
Soil aggregate formation
Plant water uptake
![Page 15: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Conclusions:
• Reduced species diversity • Lower food chain length • Microbial biomass: 50% reduction • Soil carbon: 10 - 100% reduction • Phosphorous uptake: from 150 to 15 kg/ha • Reduced soil mixing: from 100 to 5 tons/ha • Reduction of soil aggregates: more than 50%
Pastures to crop rotation:
![Page 16: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Ecosystemservices Values
Link production of services with economy develop production functions of services
Value ecosystem services model farmers economy test policies in economy models develop models for predicting future land use
Economy tool box
![Page 17: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Ecosystem services & farmers economy
• Value of ecosystem services is based on: – Farmers profit – Benefits of society
• Cannot value diversity on its own • Value contribute to yield or reduction of costs
Income= yield*price – costs + ecosystem services
![Page 18: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Economy tool box - production functions
Model effects of agricultural practices • On yield
– N response – Impact of changing soil C stock on yield
• Soil ecosystem services – Soil C – Soil N – Biotic resistance
![Page 19: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Regional study: soil carbon decline
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1950 1970 1990 2010
kgwhe
at/ha
WinterwheatyieldFarmC
50kgN/ha 150kgN/ha
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1950 1970 1990 2010
Soil
Car
bon
%
Soil carbon decline rate
Farm A Farm B Farm C
Farm A
![Page 20: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Economy tool box - production functions
Yield response to N input with different levels of soil Carbon
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0 50 100 150 200
Yie
ld in
crea
se (k
g/ha
)
Nitrogen fertilizer (kg/ha)
C increase 2.5% 1.5% 0.5%
![Page 21: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Agent-based model of farmers economy
Actions
Interactions
Farms
Factor endowment
Economy tool box: farmers profits
AgriPoliS - Agricultural Policy Simulator (Happe 2004, Brady et al 2007)
Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Halle, Germany
![Page 22: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Key variables in AgriPoliS
Income Costs • Agricultural products
– Crop yields (t) – Livestock (numbers) – Milk (kg) – Stable manure (N & P kg)
• Soilservices – Soil C (kg) – N mineralization (kg) – Biotic resistance (index)
• Fertilizer – N (kg) – P (kg)
• Energy (diesel equivalents) • Pesticides (index) • Labour (regional wage) • Land (ha)
Technological development Higher yields per unit
input
![Page 23: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Output from AgriPoliS
• Future prediction – 1-25 years
• Farm structure – Average farm size – Number of farms
• Land use – Composition of crops – Distribution of field
size
• Econ. Performance – Farm income – Farm profit – Investment activity – Returns to labour
• Livestock – Numbers of livestock – Animal density
![Page 24: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Scenarios for predicting the future
Scenario World Market Regional Enterprise
Global Sustainability
Local Stewardship
Yields High Medium Medium Low Crop Price Low Low Low Medium Energy price Low Medium Medium High
Global pop Low High Low Medium
Adopted from the ACCELERATES project (Abildtrup, et al. 2006
![Page 25: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Regional study: Soil carbon decline
0 0.5
1 1.5
2 2.5
3 3.5
4 4.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Soil
Car
bon
%
Year
Soil carbon decline rate in Sweden
Farm A Farm B Farm C
1% decline per year
![Page 26: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Profits and C change in 2035
NochangeinC 2010 WM RE GS LS
Yield(kg/ha) 7593 13130 10427 10395 7965
Totalrevenues(€/ha) 990 1277 1202 1400 1207
Farmersprofit(€/ha) 34 291 134 64 ‐142
Cchange‐1%/yr WM RE GS LS
Yield(kg/ha) 12325 9788 9758 7477
Totalrevenues(€/ha) 1199 1128 1315 1133
Farmersprofit(€/ha) 213 60 ‐22 ‐216
Cchange+1%/yr WM RE GS LS
Yield(kg/ha) 14153 11240 11204 8586
Totalrevenues(€/ha) 1377 1295 1510 1301
Farmersprofit(€/ha) 391 227 173 ‐48
![Page 27: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
AgriPoliS projections 25 years:
140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185
ha
Average farm size
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140
x100
0 (€
) Average farm profit
Model predicts future - profits of farmers - size of farms of an agricultural region
![Page 28: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
SOILSERVICEandfurtherwork
Ecosystems&biodiversity
Ecosystemservices
Decisions
Ins2tu2ons(farmers,EC)
Values
agricultural land use
Biodiversity tool box
Economic tool box
Information sustainable soil use
incentives
![Page 29: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
SOIL SERVICE expected results
• Predict farmers economy with current and future land use
• Determine the value of ecosystem services as a part of agricultural production
• Value soil carbon as a natural capital for farmers economy
• Test policy options on future decisions of farmers and societies
![Page 30: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
SOIL SERVICE partners
![Page 31: preliminary results of the SOIL SERVICE research project Katarina Hedlund Lund ... · 2014-05-21 · Lund university Sweden. Land use projections • Mitigate climate change • Higher](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022080718/5f78d39ebffe083339188432/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
SOIL SERVICE partners
Lund University, Sweden, Prof Katarina Hedlund Agri Food Economics Centre, Sweden, Dr. Mark Brady, University of Copenhagen, Denmark Prof. Søren Christensen, University of Helsinki, Finland Prof. Heikki Setälä, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, NL, Prof. Wim H. Van der Putten, Wageningen University, NL, Prof. Peter C. de Ruiter, Justus-Liebig-University of Giessen, Germany, Prof. Volkmar Wolters, Biology Centre of the Academy of Sciences, Czech Republic Dr. Jan Frouz, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, Dr. Stefanos Sgardelis Lancaster University, United Kingdom, Prof. Richard D. Bardgett University of Reading, United Kingdom, Dr. Simon Mortimer