Preliminary Results 2011/12 - Presentation · UK i d t UK industry – Ri th d ltRunning up the...
Transcript of Preliminary Results 2011/12 - Presentation · UK i d t UK industry – Ri th d ltRunning up the...
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Preliminary Results18 A il 201218 April 2012
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Philip ClarkeGroup Chief Executive
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Th fi t D i i ti t kThe first year – Decisive action taken
• Got Fresh & Easy moving towards break-even
• Announced our decision to exit Japan
• Slowed down Bank migration to focus on reliability
• Significant step in the UK on price position• Significant step in the UK on price position
• Addressing underperformance in the UK
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UK i d t R i th d l tUK industry – Running up the down escalator
• Industry space growth too fast
• Additional very big stores not the answer any more
• Customers moving faster to smaller stores and internet
• Social media soon to be as influential as press advertising• Social media soon to be as influential as press advertising
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F ll i th tFollowing the customer….
A new approach:
• Slower new space growth
• Fewer bigger new stores
M i• More convenience
• More online
• More personalisation
• More localisationMore localisation
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B ildi b tt TBuilding a better Tesco….
• Put more back in for customers
• Get back to driving profits through sales
• Make multi-channel a profitable reality
• Act decisively to tackle underperformance• Act decisively to tackle underperformance
• Strike a better balance between growth and returns for shareholders
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Laurie McilweeChief Financial Officer
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Fi i l fFinancial performance
• Group headlines
• Segmental performance
• Balance sheet
• Cash flow• Cash flow
• Key financial metrics
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G fGroup performance
11/12 vs. 10/11
Group sales* £72.0bn 7.4%
Group trading profit £3.8bn 1.3%
Underlying profit before tax £3.9bn 1.6%
Group profit before tax £3.8bn 5.3%
Underlying diluted EPS 37.41p 2.1% **
Full-year dividend 14.76p 2.1%
Net debt £6.8bn £0.0bn
Return on capital employed 13.3% 40bp
* Group sales (inc VAT) exclude the accounting impact of IFRIC13
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Group sales (inc. VAT) exclude the accounting impact of IFRIC13** Underlying diluted EPS growth calculated on a constant tax rate basis; 3.2% growth on an actual tax rate basis
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G fGroup performance
• In line with revised market expectations*
• Demonstrates breadth of Group
• Strong performances internationally
• Delivering profit growth despite:• Delivering profit growth despite:
– Challenging year in the UK
– Impact of PPI+
* Source: Vuma consensus estimates published February 2012
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Source: Vuma consensus estimates, published February 2012 + PPI (Payment Protection Insurance)
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UKUK
• Strong total sales growth
• Good new store performance
UK
Sales growth (inc. petrol) 6.2%
• Like-for-like sales weakened during H2
• Some improvement post Christmas
LFL (exc. petrol) 0.0%
• Some improvement post-ChristmasTrading profit £2,480m
Trading profit growth (1.0)%
Trading profit margin 5.79%g p g
Trading profit change (35)bp
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A iAsia
Asia
Sales growth (inc. petrol) 10.5%
• Good performance across all markets
• Solid like-for-like growth
LFL (exc. petrol) 1.9%• Thailand returning to strong growth
post-floods
Trading profit £737m
T d f h 21 8%
• Margins up
– Thai insurance coverTrading profit growth 21.8%
Trading profit margin 6.81%
– Good growth in Korea and Malaysia
• Challenging year in China
Trading profit change 64bp
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EEurope
Europe
Inc Tax Ex Tax
• Resilient overall performance
• Two impacts:Sales growth (inc. petrol) 7.7%
LFL (exc. petrol) 0.9%
– £(38)m Hungary crisis tax
– Poland – distribution centre disruption & non-food stock write-off
Trading profit £529m £567m• Double-digit profit growth in Central Europe*
Trading profit growth 0.4% 7.6%
Trading profit margin 5 36% 5 75%
p
• Robust performance in Ireland
I l d d H f d Trading profit margin 5.36% 5.75%
Trading profit change (37)bp +2bp
• Ireland and Hungary – focused on driving trade from existing stores
* exc Hungary crisis tax
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exc. Hungary crisis tax
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USUS
US
Sales growth (inc. petrol) 27.1%
• Strong top-line performance
• Reduced losses by nearly 18%
LFL (exc. petrol) 11.9%• First full-year reduction in losses since
entry
Trading profit £(153)m
Trading profit growth 17.7%
Trading profit margin (24.29)%g p g
Trading profit change 1,329bp
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US I i t fit bilitUS – Improving store profitability
Store profitability – grouped by weekly contribution cohorts
70
Store profitability grouped by weekly contribution cohorts
50
60
ore
s
30
40
No
. of s
to
10
20
0<(30) (30)-(25) (25)-(20) (20)-(15) (15)-(10) (10)-(5) (5)-0 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25+
* Trading profit before depreciation and central & campus overheadsEBITDA ($k/wk)*
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T B kTesco Bank
250
• Baseline profit increased by 29% to £203m*
F i l l d d f
Strong baseline profit growth
£203m200
• Fair value releases reduced from £155m to £22m
T di fit f £168£158m
100
150• Trading profit of £168m
• Capital position improved
+29%
50
100– Risk asset ratio now 16.0%
• Liquidity also improved
0
10/11 baseline profit 11/12 baseline profit* Baseline profit is defined as Bank trading profit before provisioning movements (PPI) and Fair value
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(PPI) and Fair value
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J Di ti dJapan – Discontinued
11/12 (£m) 10/11 (£m)
Revenue 436 476
Trading loss (25) (35)
Non cash impairment (77) (55)
Restructuring (20) (9)
Other (property and interest) (3) (7)Other (property and interest) (3) (7)
Loss before tax (128) (106)
Tax (14) 0
Loss after tax (142) (106)
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C h fl d b l h tCash flow and balance sheet
• Net debt remained stable at £6.8bn
• Group capital expenditure slightly below guidance at £3.8bn
• Retail operating cash flow £3.8bn*
* Cash generated from retail operations excluding Tesco Bank
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Cash generated from retail operations excluding Tesco Bank
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R l i l f tReleasing value from property
• Successful year
– £376m property profits
– £1bn disposals£1bn disposals
• Tesco Lotus Property Fund, Thailand
– Raised £379m from 17 stores and malls – Raised £379m from 17 stores and malls after the 2011/12 year-end
– Priced at top end of range
– Strong demand – 11 times over-subscribed
– Initial trading ahead of list price
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C h fl d b l h tCash flow and balance sheet
• Net debt remained stable at £6.8bn
• Group capital expenditure slightly below guidance at £3.8bn
• Retail operating cash flow £3.8bn*
• £ 1bn property proceeds; £376m property profits • £ 1bn property proceeds; £376m property profits
• Net IAS19 pension deficit (post-tax) increased to £1.4bn
• One-off cash contribution of £180m to defined benefit scheme after year-end
* Cash generated from retail operations excluding Tesco Bank
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Cash generated from retail operations excluding Tesco Bank
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K fi i l t iKey financial metricsXReturn on Capital Employed Fixed Charge Cover: EBITDAR/(Interest + Rent)
6.35.5
4.2 3.7 3.9 3.9
24
68
12.1% 12.9% 13.3% 14.6%
X
0
2
FY 06/07 FY 07/08 FY 08/09 FY 09/10 FY 10/11 FY 11/12FY 09/10 FY 10/11 FY 11/12 FY 14/15 Target
Target to hit 14.6% ROCE by 2014/15 Target of 4.0 to 4.5x
Capital Expenditure as % of Group Sales
%
X
Net Indebtedness: Adjusted Net Debt/EBITDAR*
3.583 19
4
X
6.47.5 7.9
5.05.5 5.36
8
102.39
2.833.19
2.84 2.86
1
2
3
5.0
4
6
FY 06/07 FY 07/08 FY 08/09 FY 09/10 FY 10/11 FY 11/12
* Adjusted net debt = statutory net debt + pension deficit + NPV of lease obligations
Target of <2.5x
1
FY 06/07 FY 07/08 FY 08/09 FY 09/10 FY10/11 FY11/12
22
Adjusted net debt statutory net debt + pension deficit + NPV of lease obligations
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Philip ClarkeGroup Chief Executive
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A t h A tough year
• Strong International performance only just compensated for UK
• Difficult environment for consumers at home
• Important financial consequences
• Decision to give up some short term profit to safeguard the long term• Decision to give up some short-term profit to safeguard the long-term
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Di iDiagnosis
• Pace of change needed to accelerate
• Inherited a great business
• Built around customers and staff
• High quality assets• High quality assets
• Multiple opportunities for growth
• Recession hit hard – longer and deeper than expected
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D i i h D i i tiDriving change – Decisive action
1. Putting more back into the UK business
2. Reducing the drag :
– United States
– Japan
Bank migration– Bank migration
3. Increased focus on remaining well-positioned for the opportunities and challenges of the internetchallenges of the internet
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T i itiTeam priorities
Becoming outstanding
internationally, Keeping the UK
strong and
Becoming a multi-channel
retailer y,not just
successful
ggrowing wherever we
trade
Applying Group skill and
l
Delivering on the potential of
retailing Delivering
higher returnsscaleservices
– The Bank
higher returns
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I t ti l f tInternational performance strong
• Total profit growth 22%*
• Despite very tough economic conditions in several markets
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* Pre-Hungary crisis tax
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F h & EFresh & Easy
• Reduced losses, more progress
• Decisive change of trend
• Customer offer significantly improved
• Two year like-for-like over 20%• Two year like-for-like over 20%
• Focus on store profitability
• Measured approach to new capital
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M k t h th G d Market share growth – Good progress
Europe Market Share Change
Poland § 6.9% 0.4%
Asia Market Share Change
South Korea* 5.7% 0.1%
Hungary § 20.0% 0.8%
C h 11 2% 1 0%
South Korea 5.7% 0.1%
Thailand ± 13.0% 0.6%Czech ∞ 11.2% 1.0%
Slovakia ∞ 20.3% 1.2%Malaysia + 10.2% (0.1)%
Turkey μ 1.7% 0.0%
I eland α 28 2 1 0%
y ( )
China +× 2.9% 0.0%Ireland α 28.2 1.0%
Sources:* KNSO market share (Month of January 2012)± Kantar Panel (12 weeks ending 26 February 2012)+ Kantar Panel (12 weeks ending 27 January 2012)
Sources:§GfK Panel (3 months ending January 2012)∞Kantar Panel (3 months ending December 2011)μ IPSOS Panel (3 months ending January 2012)
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+ Kantar Panel (12 weeks ending 27 January 2012)× China’s market share coverage is based on the 7 cities coverage
μ IPSOS Panel (3 months ending January 2012)αKantar Panel (12 weeks ending 18 March 2012)
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Th il dThailand
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S ll f t d i i thSmaller formats driving growth
New international space – forecast 12/13Total international space – as at Feb 2012
Large51%
Small49%
51%
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Th h k t t The hypermarket – more to come
• 31 conversions to Extra in Europe, 3 in Asia
• 17% cumulative improvement in sales
• Food and service-focused, tight general merchandise assortment, strong clothing offer
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P l dPoland
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ChiChina
• Tough environment
– Slowing economy
– High inflation and wage costsHigh inflation and wage costs
• More cautious stance
– No new substantial freehold – No new substantial freehold commitments
– Holding back on leasehold hypers for the time beingthe time being
– 16 new hypers in 2012/13
• P t ti l i f th • Potential engine of growth, constrained by short term challenges
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KKorea
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T I t ti l R id thTesco International – Rapid growth
O ti /t di fit
1,1131,200£m
Operating/trading profit
800
1,000
400
600
200
0
98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
Note 1: 11/12 is on a continuing operations basis; all other years are as reportedNote 2: Includes US losses (10/11: £(186)m, 11/12 £(153)m)Note 3: From 98/99 to 05/06 this data is statutory operating profit; from 06/07 this data is trading profit
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T B kTesco Bank
• Migration project almost complete
• Low cost model
• Robust, modern systems
• Good market positions• Good market positions
• 75% of business online
• New products appearing soon
• Well-placed to deliver good growthp g g
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K h Keeping the UK strong UK strong
and growing
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UK fUK performance
UK S l d P fit G th 2006/07 t 2011/12
3,000 7
UK Sales and Profit Growth – 2006/07 to 2011/12
Trading Profit£m
Margin%
LFL%
2,500
,
5
6UK Trading Margin
LFL
1,500
2,000
3
4
5
500
1,000
1
2
3
0
500
06/07 07/ 08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
0
1
40
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P d ti it i d t hi hProductivity index too high
St P d ti it I d (PI) T t l t
108
Index
Store Productivity Index (PI) – Total store
106
104
102
10006/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
41
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UKUK
42
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C t tiCustomer perceptions
Shopping Trip – Long Term Performance Summary
Promise Every Little Helps Measure 2002 Position 2007 Position 2011 Position
Prices are goodPrice 2nd 2nd
Promotions
I can get what I want
Food Range 1st 1st 1st
Food Quality 2nd 2nd
A il bili 1 2 dAvailability 1st 2nd
I don’t queue I Don’t Queue 1st 1st 2nd
Shopping is eas and enjo able Enjo able Shopping 1st 2nd 2ndShopping is easy and enjoyable Enjoyable Shopping 1st 2nd 2nd
Staff are great Staff Helpfulness 1st
Source: Customer Spotlight reports; TNS image and attitude tracker;BLUE = Best in marketGREEN 2 d iti t l di t il
43
Source: Customer Spotlight reports; TNS image and attitude tracker; GREEN = 2nd position amongst leading grocery retailersAMBER = 3rd position or below amongst leading grocery retailers
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Th UK Pl B ildi B tt TThe UK Plan – Building a Better Tesco3. Price & Value2. Stores & Formats1. Service & Staff
6. Clicks & Bricks5. Brand & Marketing4. Range & Quality
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S i & St ffService & Staff
P i ffi l l b k i• Putting staffing levels back in
• Particularly in fresh areas & large storesstores
• Recruiting, training, equipping 8,000 staff
• Our biggest ever service investment: over £200m
• Dedicated staff in key departments– Produce
– Meat
– Chilled convenience food
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S i & St ff E i ltService & Staff – Encouraging results
+1.1%+1.2%
LFLLFL
LFL
Mystery shopper y y ppscores 7.8% higher than control group
200 Stores after 17 weeks
16 Stores after 31 weeks*
All invested stores to date
46
31 weeks
*16 stores include 4 stores live for 42 weeks & 12 stores live for 31 weeks
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St & F tStores & Formats
47
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St & F tStores & Formats
48
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St & F tStores & Formats
49
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St & F tStores & Formats
50
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St & F tStores & Formats
51
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St & F tStores & Formats
52
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N A f d t ll hNew space – A fundamentally new approach
L ll• Less new space overall
• 1.5m sq ft new space in 2012/13 –nearly 40% less than last yearnearly 40% less than last year
• Reflecting growing importance of online
• Focusing on most productive use of capital
• Continued growth in all formats; some clear priorities:– Express
– dotcom-only stores
– Building out committed projects
53
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Th h k tThe hypermarket
• Extra – still an opportunity for growth
• New stores smaller on average10 t
Proportion of Extra stores by size
• Food, services and clothing-focused
• Reflecting rapid growth of non-food
10 stores over 100k
42 stores between • Reflecting rapid growth of non-food
online
• Existing estate profitable and popular
between 80k & 100k
• Existing estate profitable and popular with customers
Less than 80k80k
54
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P i & V lPrice & Value
Big Price Drop LoyaltyBig Price Drop Loyalty
Value for money
Coupons Promotions
55
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R & Q litRange & Quality
56
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R i M t d f t ifiRanging – More store and format-specific
57
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B d & M k tiBrand & Marketing
58
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Cli k & B i kClicks & Bricks
• Strategic opportunity of internet for business with our scale, reach and capability
• Well-placed to prosper
G fi t• Grocery first
– Profitable
– Advantage in international markets gfrom our UK model
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Cli k & B i kClicks & Bricks
• Total online sales of £2.8bn
• Profits up, despite development cost h d i dheadwind
• UK grocery accelerating its growth
• Tesco Direct – step-change in offer
60
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G li UKGrocery online – UK
• Sales grew 10%; profits increased
• Investment in offer well-received:
– More capacity
– More delivery slots
Flexible delivery charges– Flexible delivery charges
• Click & Collect Grocery now in 45 stores
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d t l t t kdotcom-only store network
• Enfield opened January 2012
• Offering greater range to diverse London market
• Freeing up room for existing store growth
• Last two London locations open by end 2013• Last two London locations open by end 2013
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I t ti l d tInternational dotcomPrague dotcom • Existing operations performing well
– Korea operation doubled profit in H2
dotcom grocery
• Strong start in Prague – ahead of plan
• Warsaw to launch soon
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T Di tTesco Direct
• New website launched
– More content
– Doubling range to over 75 000 SKU’sDoubling range to over 75,000 SKU s
– First stage of Marketplace
– Phased improvements throughout year
• Click & Collect in nearly 800 stores
– 70% of non-food online volume
– In 70 Expresses now – 700 by year-end
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Th UK Pl B ildi B tt TThe UK Plan – Building a Better Tesco3. Price & Value2. Stores & Formats1. Service & Staff
6. Clicks & Bricks5. Brand & Marketing4. Range & Quality
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Th UK tThe UK team
Philip ClarkeMike IddonChris Bush David Hobbs Judith NelsonNigel Jones
Philip ClarkeUK Finance
DirectorUK COO UK Operations Planning &
Strategy Director UK & ROI Personnel
DirectorUK Commercial
Director
Andrew YaxleyUK Commercial Director
David WoodUK Marketing Director
Ken TowleInternet Retailing
Director
John ScoulerUK Commercial
Director
Steve RigbyUK Property Director
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DirectorDirector
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UK SUK – Summary
• We know what the issues are and we know how to fix them
• Pilots encouraging
• Execution is key
• Getting the UK back to form: the priority• Getting the UK back to form: the priority
• Strong, hand-picked management team
• Confident we can get the business leading, performing and growing
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Laurie McilweeChief Financial Officer
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O tliOutline
• Financial implications of UK plan
• Financial strategy
– Capital expenditure
– Space
Returns– Returns
– Cash
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UK Fi i l i li tiUK – Financial implications
UK T di P fi M i %
7%
UK Trading Profit Margin %
6.1 6.26.0
5.66
Consensus*
5
4
3
H1 10/11 H2 10/11 H1 11/12 H2 11/12 FY 12/13
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Fi i l St t G Financial Strategy – Group capex
• Group capital expenditure will reduce to £3.3bn in 2012/13
• Going forward, less than 5% of sales
• New phase of growth
• Businesses competing for capital• Businesses competing for capital
• Balancing growth and returns
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Fi i l St t C d Financial Strategy – Capex and space
• Greater share of Group capital expenditure into smaller, higher-returning formats
• UK:
– Less overall capital expenditure
– Less new spaceLess new space
– New stores: smaller, more focused on food than non-food
• More on existing stores – over £200m in enlarged Refresh programme• More on existing stores over £200m in enlarged Refresh programme
• Stepping up investment in online
• Higher returns on new space
– 2010/11 opening programme ahead of target
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Fi i l St t C it l k iFinancial Strategy – Capital work-in-progress
• Pipeline – around £2bn UK work-in-progress
R d i i f d• Reduction going forward
– Building out pipeline faster than adding new sites
– Key contributor to UK space growth
– Completion of mixed use schemes, with build phase in 2012/13with build phase in 2012/13
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Fi i l St t C hFinancial Strategy – Cash
• Overall reduction in Group capex
• Return to growth in cash contribution from UK
• International businesses making increasingly positive contribution
• Strong plans to improve working capital inflow• Strong plans to improve working capital inflow
• Outlook for Tesco: increasingly cash-generative
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M i t i i ROCE t t f 14 6%Maintaining ROCE target of 14.6%
Return on capital employed
20
25ROCE (%)
I f i l
Return on capital employed
5
10
15
0 • Infrastructure in place• Good market positions• Group scale/skill to come • Building
infrastructure• Immature capital
• Sub scaleLeading
UK*
(5)
0
5Developing
(Poland, Czech, Slovakia, Malaysia)
(Bank, Ireland, Korea, Thailand, Hungary)
Immature(Turkey,
China US)
(20)
(15)
(10)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Projected ROCE 2014/15
ROCE 2010/11China, US)
86
0 5 10 15 20 25 30Capital Employed (£bn)
* Excludes the positive impact of the sale & leaseback programme
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SSummary
• Greater capital discipline and restraint
• More sustainable level of growth
• Less capital-intensive investment
– Less new space
– More focus on existing stores
– More new small stores
More online– More online
• Reduced non-productive capital and higher hurdle rates for new opportunities
• Higher returns and higher cash-generation
• Better for shareholders
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Philip ClarkeGroup Chief Executive
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SSummary
• Great business
– UK’s biggest retail company
– Record Group profitsRecord Group profits
• Confident we can get UK business where we want it to be
Innovating changing adapting to meet customers’ needs– Innovating, changing, adapting to meet customers needs
– Leadership in new era of retailing
• Focus on what we have• Focus on what we have
• Making sure each part of business is successful, strong and growing
• Making right calls on margins, services, space
• Putting the customer first
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Building a better TescoBuilding a better Tesco
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Q & A
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Preliminary Results18 A il 201218 April 2012