Predictive Maintenance

Fredrik Ljungbergfredrik.ljungberg@diadrom.se

Agenda

○ Maintenance from an overall perspective○ Examples○ Food for thoughts

Background

○Broken Repair○ 1. To restore to sound condition after damage or injury; fix: repaired the

broken watch.○ 2. To set right; remedy: repair an oversight.○ 3. To renew or revitalize.○ 4. To make up for or compensate for (a loss or wrong, for example).

○Maintenance○ 1. The act of maintaining or the state of being maintained.○ 2. The work of keeping something in proper condition; upkeep.○ 3. a. Provision of support or livelihood: took over the maintenance of her

family. b. Means of support or livelihood: was ordered to pay maintenance for both children.

○ 4. Law ○ The unlawful meddling in a suit by providing either party with the means to carry it

on.

OK Broken Repair

Repair

OK

OK Maint OK Broken Repair

Good enough

Broken

OK

Maint

Repair

Maint

Uptime circle (Marko Vainio)

Maintenance concepts

○ Maintenance ○ Actions to keep a product in proper

condition

○ Preventive Maintenance (PM)○ Scheduled maintenance tasks to

extend the time of proper condition

○ Condition Based Maintenance (CBM)

○ Maintenance actions based on the condition of the product

○ Need for what service now?

○ Predictive Maintenance (PdM)○ Need for maintenance actions

predicted in advance ○ Need for service when?

○ Adaptive Maintenance (AD)○ Adapt content of service to the actual

condition of the product

Examples from the car industry

BMW Condition Based Service

○ Service concept for premium segment

○ Service scheduled based on the status of the vehicle (its condition)

○ Vehicle checks continuously the status of parts, fluid levels and mileage data and makes this information available to drivers

○ The customer is prompted when service is needed

○ Vehicle data saved in the key○ ”TeleService” sends the data to

the BMW service partner to plan service more effective

Photo: BMW

Pilot project: Service Notification

○ Objective ○ To improve Customer

Satisfaction○ To improve planning and

scheduling of service in the workshop

○ To reduce administration for service booking

○ To provide service for customers more rapidly

Photo: Volvo Cars

Pilot project: Service Notification

○ Approx. 200 cars for 1 year○ Software added to phone

module○ SMS every 1 000 km

○ Conclusion○ Customers pleased with this

way of booking services

1. SMS from car to VCC back office

2. Service need assessment by server software

3. Customer gets email with web form

4. Web form filled in and sent to workshop

5. Workshop propose time for service

6. Customer confirms7. Service of car

Examples from the industrial domain

CBM: Condition Based Maintenance

○ Analysis of values reported by sensors will result in a decision if a maintenance should be done or not

○ Pressure sensors○ Vibration sensors○ Temperature sensors○ Voltage and ampere meters○ Flow meters

○ Can be mixed with other maintenance strategies, for instance RCM

PM: Preventive Maintenance

○ Scheduled maintenance tasks, e.g., infrared temperature analysis

○ Analogue measurement often used because more details

Photo: Infrared Services

RCM:Reliability Centered Maintenance

○ An approach to the management of reliability of complex products

○ SAE JA1011 ○ Usage

○ Requirements on maintenance processes

○ Evaluate maintenance processes

○ Basics ○ Analysis of consequences of

failures○ Failures that lead to death,

environmental issues or major economical losses should be designed out of the system

○ Cost of maintenance tasks should be lower than cost of failure

Photo: Vattenfall

RCM:Reliability Centered Maintenance

○ Type1 death or environmental pollution

○ Type2 downtime in production

○ Type3 repair costs

○ Type1: Should be designed out of the system or have PM tasks that make the probability of failure to near zero

○ Type2 and 3: Tasks assigned to minimize the failure probability but only if cost of the task is less than the cost of a failure.

Photo: ABB

RCM:Reliability Centered Maintenance

○ NAVAIR ○ The Naval Air Systems

Command is a United States Navy command

○ Partly used by SKF and Göteborg Energi

○ Very complex few companies apply the entire process/model

Photo: NavAir

Development of maintenance

○ Repair after failure○ Inspect, lubricate

○ Unscheduled inspection and lubrication of components

○ Preventive Maintenance○ Scheduled maintenance based

upon probability of failure

○ Systematic Planning and Scheduling

○ Add feedback to improve maintenance, e.g., if a service seems applicable, if services missing, etc.

○ Predictive Maintenance○ Maintenance based upon prediction

of failure, e.g., time in operation

Development of maintenance

○ Root cause analysis○ Investigation of causes to

breakdown

○ Reliability Centered Maintenance

○ A sophisticated approach to maintenance

○ Operator Maintenance○ The operator has been assigned

tasks for maintenance and optimization

○ Concurrent Engineering

Notes SKF

○ From firefighting to maintenance○ Maintenance including improvements○ From an isolated task for a central unit to involve large

parts of the company

Successful maintenance

Aspects of maintenance

Worth doing? Follow-up

Right tasksRight frequencyRight techniques

MotivationDetailedStructured

Add improvements

Good enough

Broken

OK

Maintenance

Improved

OptimizedImprovements

Everybody needs to be involved○ What data to log? ○ What values imply faults?

(now or later) ○ What methods will be

required to find reason for fault?

○ What methods and parts are required to repair fault?

○ What methods are most successful?

○ Parts logistics (and dev./update software)

○ Workshop scheduling○ Customer interaction

Off-boardsystem

Back office analysis

Back office systems

PD MA AM

Why sophisticated maintenance when parts sales is so important? ○ For some companies in the industry:

○ Selling vehicles: +/- 0○ Sales of original spare parts: +

○ May improved services imply less parts sales in the AM?

○ If so, why improve maintenance? ○ Some possible reasons

○ J D Powers and other surveys of customer satisfaction ○ New business models require new models for the AM○ More loyal customers ○ Enables new kinds of services

The formula?

Improved maint. + new offers/services

>

Today’s maint. + parts sales

Technical problems and customer-experienced problems

Technical errors that the customer does not experience as problems

Experienced problems but no technical error, e.g., configuration not proper (seat heater 0 degrees as default)

Customer-experienced technical errors

Problems and services

1 Non-technical service2 Software campaigns

addressing customer-experienced problems, and soft offer

3 Software campaigns addressing problems of which the customer is not aware

4 Non-applicable services

Redefine the scope of maintenance?

○ Maintenance of the product

○ Ensure ”technical problems” are managed as efficiently as possible

○ Efficient maintenance of technical products

○ What product data to log? ○ What product values imply

faults? (now or later) ○ What methods will be required

to find reason for fault in the product?

○ …

○ Maintenance of the customer

○ Ensure ”customer experienced problems” are managed as efficiently as possible

○ Efficient maintenance and sales of new services

○ What customer data to log? ○ What customer values imply

faults? (now or later) ○ What methods will be required

to find reason for fault in the customer?

○ …

Thank you!