Prediction

• OPI Area hatchery coho– Jack to Adult regression

• Oregon Coastal Natural (OCN) coho– Environmental

• Sea Surface Temperature

• Upwelling

• Year (?)

• Lower Columbia River coho– Not predicted

Smolt Year

1970 1980 1990 2000

Ad

ult

s (t

+1)

/Jac

k(t)

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

0.040

0.045

Time Series of OPI Area Hatchery Coho Adults/Jack

OPI Area Hatchery Coho Jacks and Adults

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Year

Adul

ts (t

+1) (

x100

0)

0

50

100

150

200

Jack

s (t)

(x

1000

)

Jacks (t)Adults (t+1)

0

2

4

6

8

1019

47

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Year

pro

du

ctio

n -

x 1

0^6

0.0000

0.0200

0.0400

0.0600

0.0800

0.1000

0.1200

0.1400

0.1600

OP

I h

atch

ery

mar

ine

surv

ival

WOC Coho production GAM modelled survival GAM hindcast survival

Observed survival GAM forecast survival

+/- 1 S.E.

“Ocean Conditions Model” with predictionsP

rodu

ctio

nO

PI H

atchery Marine S

urvivalSea Surface TemperatureSea LevelSpring Transition

Predicted

Observed

10

100

1000

Return Year

Co

ho

(x1

000)

Observed

Predicted

Environmental predictor for OCN coho:ln(Recruits) = a + b*Year +

c* Upwelling + d*Sea Surface Temperaturer2 = 0.48 p = 0.0003

Harvest Management

• How to manage with this level of predictive capacity?– Weak stock– Exploitation Rate Matrix

• marine survival

• parental spawners

Marine Survival

Par

enta

l Spa

wne

r E

scap

emen

t

Exploitatio

n Rate

OCN and Lower Columbia Rivercoho salmon harvest management

Low HighLow

High

Low

High

< 8%

45%

< 8%

< 8%

Amendment 13 Revised Management Matrix forOCN Coho

Marine Survival IndexParentSpawnerStatus

Very Low Low Medium High

High 8% 15% 30% 45%

Medium 8% 15% 20% 38%

Low 8% 15% 15% 25%

Very Low 8% 11% 11% 11%

Critical 0 – 8 % 0 – 8 % 0 – 8 % 0 – 8 %

Planning for the Future

• Understand climate interactions

• Anticipate and prepare for likely futures

• Hatchery vs. Wild

• Flexible management strategies

Population Size

Cyclical Environmental Variation

Long-Term Environmental Trend

=

+

DCB

A

Time

Esca

pem

en

t

0

After: Cycles in Ocean Productivity, Trends in Habitat Quality, and the Restoration of Salmon Runs in Oregon (Lawson 1993)

Coho Salmon Life-cycle

with Freshwater and Marine Environmental Factors

January-February SST 1969-2004Charleston, Oregon

Year

1970 1980 1990 2000

Sea

Su

rfa

ce T

emp

erat

ure

(oC

)

8

9

10

11

12

13

OO++

Spawners

Early Late

fecundity

Eggs

*

*

OO++

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200%

Percent of Full Seeding (P)

Egg-

to-P

arr S

urvi

val R

ate

Sparr = 0.064P-0.743

R2 = 0.68

4 Fish per Mile

12% of Full Seeding

19% of Full Seeding

50% of Full Seeding

75% of full Seeding

899 21,700 3,596 NA 4,123 10,850 16,275

1,163 55,000 4,652 NA 10,450 27,500 41,250

1,685 50,000 6,740 NA 9,500 25,000 37,500

450 5,400 NA 86 1,026 2,700 4,050

4,197 132,100 25,099 66,050 99,075

(based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt)

HighMediumLowExtremely Low(>0.0040 jacks/smolt)(0.0015 to 0.0039)

M R

Marine Survival Index

Parent Spawner

Status 1/

0 - 8% 0 - 8% 0 - 8% 0 - 8%

< 15%

< 15%

< 15%

< 11%

15,074Coastwide Total

(<0.0008 jacks/smolt) (0.0008 to 0.0014 )

Sub-aggregate and Basin Specific Spawner Criteria Data

Northern

North - Central

South - Central

Southern

< 8%

< 8%

< 11%

< 15% < 25%

L

< 11%

Q

J

I

H

G

O

< 30%

N

< 20%

T

< 45%

S

< 38%

Sub-aggregate

HighParent Spawners > 75% of full seeding

Miles of Available Spawning Habitat

E

D

C

B

< 8%

< 8%

100% of Full

Seeding

"Critical" Very Low, Low, Medium & High

A K P

Parent Spawners > 4 fish per mile & < 19% of full seeding

Critical 2/

Parental Spawners < 4 fish per mile

MediumParent Spawners > 50% & < 75% of full seeding

LowParent Spawners > 19% & < 50% of full seeding

Very Low

F

Year

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Sta

nd

ard

ize

d A

no

ma

ly

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1950 2000

OC

N C

oho Index

0

1500

Observed PDO Projected PNA

PopulationDynamics

FreshwaterHabitat

Climate Patterns

Marine Survival

HarvestManagement

MetapopulationDynamics