Prediction Markets at Google
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Transcript of Prediction Markets at Google
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Prediction Markets at Google
MIS 501
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Googles: Prediction Markets• What are Prediction Markets?
– What are their components?– How do they work?– What is similar and unique relative to other
markets?– What do they tell us?
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Prediction Markets• What does the price of a “stock” mean?
– What information is conveyed by the price?
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Prediction Markets• Why or why wouldn’t prediction markets
be better than …– Polling?– Experts?
• What is different about markets compared to these other information sources?
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Wisdom of Crowds?• What’s the idea behind the wisdom of
crowds?– Do you believe that crowds can be “wise?”– Where does this work? Where doesn’t it
work?
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So, how should these things be run?
• How do you motivate participation?– Why wouldn’t financial incentives work at
Google?– What did appear to work? Why?
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So, how should these things be run?
• Why are longshot bets a problem?
• What do we want traders to focus on when trading?
• Is insider trading a problem with corporate prediction markets?
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Prediction Market Resources• Bo Cogwell’s Blog• Prediction Markets at confab.yahoo• The Science of Success (James
Surowiecki• Prediction markets (wikipedia)• Crowdcast (Video)
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