Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter?

Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter?

Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

NDRDI Background• National Drug-Related Deaths Index

(NDRDI) established in 2005

• Funded by Dept. of Health and Dept. of Justice and Equality

• European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA)

Overview• 2,734 individuals died between 1998 and

2009 of a fatal drug overdose (poisoning) in Ireland

• Age and Gender• Significant Events (Christmas, St Patricks Day)• Substance involved and route of

administration• Who deceased was with and where they were

at the time of death

All NDRDI Poisoning Deaths 1998 to 2009

5

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=2734

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

6

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, gender by day of the week, n=2734

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

MaleFemale

Day Of The Week

Per

cent

age

7

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=2734

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 35

Tuesday 35

Wednesday 36

Thursday 35

Friday 35

Saturday 34

Sunday 33


8


Tuesday 35

Wednesday 36

Thursday 35

Friday 35

Saturday 34

Sunday 33


9


Tuesday 35

Wednesday 36

Thursday 35

Friday 35

Saturday 34

Sunday 33

All Cocaine Poisonings NDRDI 1998 to 2009

All cocaine poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=318


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

11

Cocaine Poisonings Excluding Opiates NDRDI, 1998 to 2009

Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009,by day of the week n=146


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Day Of The Week

Nim

ber

13

Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009, gender by day of the week n=146

14


5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Male Female

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009,who with by day of the week n=146

15


10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

AloneWith Someone

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Heroin Poisonings NDRDI 1998 to 2009

17

Heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, NDRDI n=643


20

40

60

80

100

120

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

Non-injecting Heroin Poisoning Deaths NDRDI,1998 to 2009

19

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=234


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

20

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, gender by day of the week, n=234


5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

MaleFemale

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

21

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=234

Day of The Week Median AgeMonday 31Tuesday 28

Wednesday 30Thursday 29

Friday 28Saturday 27Sunday 29


22





23




24

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, who with at time of death, n=234


10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

AloneWithsomeone

Day of the Week

Perc

enta

ge

Injecting Heroin Poisoning Deaths NDRDI 1998 to 2009

26

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=405


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

27

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by gender and day of the week, n=405


5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Male Female

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

28

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,median age by day of the week, n=405


Tuesday 32

Wednesday 33

Thursday 31

Friday 31

Saturday 27

Sunday 25

29



Tuesday 32

Wednesday 33

Thursday 31

Friday 31

Saturday 27

Sunday 25

30



Tuesday 32

Wednesday 33

Thursday 31

Friday 31

Saturday 27

Sunday 25

31

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, who with at time of death, n=405


10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

AloneWith Someone

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, who with at time of death, n=405


10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

AloneWith Someone

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

32

All NDRDI Deaths by Week of the Month NDRDI, 1998 to 2009

34

All NDRDI deaths by week of the month,1998 to 2009, n = 2,734


5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

FirstSecondThirdFourth

Grouped day of the week

Perc

enta

ge

35

All female NDRDI poisoning deaths Tuesday and Wednesday n=220

First Second Third Fourth.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

TuesdayWednesday


Perc

enta

ge

All female NDRDI poisoning deaths Tuesday and Wednesday n=220

36

First Second Third Fourth.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

TuesdayWednesday


Perc

enta

ge

Findings• Delivering harm reduction messages and treatment

outcomes - day of the week does matter

• Subgroups within the drug using population are at risk different times of the week or month

• Opportunity to save a life

Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter?

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