Predicting the future using behavioral data to forecast action

© 2016 Borderless Access 1

Predicting the future Using behavioral data to forecast action


A digital citizen’s life revolves around his gadgets

The activities a person does on his devices is varied & becoming exhaustive

There is tremendous competition for the share of attention on his device

Total time spent is 160 mins

All data is in mins / Via passive meter on mobile This data is a avg. of o e perso ’s o e day activity in:

Brazil

Mexico

South Africa

Turkey

Indonesia

India


18

11

9

8 6

5

5

5

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

19

22

30

12 5

28

5

One perso ’s a tivity on One device in One day

The behavior in emerging markets is no different


6AM – 12PM 6PM – 12AM 12PM – 6PM 12AM – 6AM

People behave differently at different times of

the day


Battle for Mindshare

The biggest battlefield is a

6 inches screen

Average no. of apps on a phone = 95


We Now Have a Shorter Attention

Span Than a Goldfish

No longer can we boast about 12

seconds of coherent thought

Source - U.S. Library of Medicine

Challenge = Attention, Reach and Loyality


Marketers

Researchers

Community managers

Attention

Reach

Loyalty

Predictions?


A Y2K is a very, very serious problem - we will have a situation scarier than the average disaster movie you might see on a Sunday night.

Charles Rosetti, Wall Street Journal(1998)

I'm convinced that before the year 2000 is over, the first child

will have been born on the moon

Werner Von Braun, The inventor of rocket

Predictions?


Computing power doubles every 18 months & the cost is halved

Moore's Law

There is a high likelihood of a hurricane this weekend, store

your supplies and stay indoors The weather channel


Predictions

Intuitive

Scientific

Despite the

prevalence of

technology,

modern campaigns

are largely

intuitive.

How effective were these campaigns ?


Eight Brands that spent

the most on Super Bowl

Total Spend USD 592.5

million

The Prediction Framework


What if you could predict the best time to push an advertising message to your potential customer?

What if you could predict the device and format that message should be customized for?

What if you could predict the engagement choke points of your digital consumer community?

How? Using a prediction framework driven by extensive data on a large group of Netizens with diverse behaviour


• When & what people are doing?

• Who is doing what?

• Facetime share of group differences

• Activity tracking on mobile, desktop,

tablets

• Attitude data

• Demographics

• Preferences

• Stated behavior

Behavioral Tracking Survey Data

The Solution A technology platform that captures & understands both behavioral & survey data

The Prediction Ecosystem


Pattern Learning Usage Metering

Adaptive

behavioral tracking

Machine learning

algorithms

Predictive campaign

intelligence

When, Where, What*

What did we observe When we applied the prediction framework to:


A multi-lingual

community of

200,000 consumers

With the

methodology (Active & Passive)

Across 6 countries - Brazil - South Africa

- Indonesia - Mexico

- Turkey - India

Across multiple

channels (Email, Mobile, Social media &

Online)

Response Time varies by device & time of the day


APP

Mobile

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Online

12AM 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM 12PM 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM Hrs


And there are incredible regional patterns


APP

Mobile

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Online



People take email surveys when they reach

work & mobile surveys when they leave work

Right Channel


Campaign X RR 16%

RR 22%

RR 31%

Campaign X

Campaign X

We sent the first campaign to people on email gave a RR of 16%

RR 20%

RR 25%

RR 38%

When the same campaign is sent to people on mobile app we get a RR of 22% By doing behavioral segmentation and sending the campaign to the preferred

channel we get a RR of 31%

RR 16%

RR 31%

By sending the message to the right channel we see an increase of 100% in RR

at an overall campaign level

Right Time

RR 38%

By combining behavioral data for channel & time we seen an overall increase of

140%+ in RR at an overall campaign level

Impact of Predictive Intelligence on Lifespan

Activity

Level

High

Moderate

Low

Lifespan

71%

Increase in Panelist lifespan

Joins

Community

1st Redemption 2nd Redemption Drop Off

Moderate Choke Point

Critical Choke Point

Joins

Community

Invited to

Download App

Social Activation

campaign

1st Redemption Intervention via

engagement campaign

2nd Redemption Intervention via

engagement campaign

3rd Redemption Drop Off

Moderate Choke Point

Critical Choke Point

Smartsight predicts the engagement choke points. Community manager uses

this information to intervene at the right time on the right channel , thus

improving the member lifespan value

Productivity

Tripot Hotels.com

Radio Media Player

Dominos Amazon

Games

Radio TV

Customizing loyalty rewards based on behavioral data


e-commerce Paid Apps Travel Entertainment Food Apps

LOW Medium High

Games Productivity Sports Radio Tripot Hotels.com McDonalds

Amazon Alibaba Target Tripot Hotels.com Expedia Dominos PizzaHut McDonalds

Ga

m

es

Pr

od

uct

ivit

y

Sports

Radio Media Player

Amazon

Games

McDonalds Tripot Hotels.com

Radio Media Player

Games Productivity Sports

Heavy user of Amazon and paid gaming apps

Suggested incentive -ecommerce coupons and app

store credits

Heavy user of travel and paid food apps

Suggested incentive - Food coupons or hotel vouchers

Heavy user of Sports apps and entertainment

Suggested incentive - Tickets & app store credits

Customizing loyalty rewards as per usage patterns

resulted in 41% increase in engagement rate

Optimizing Ad Spends - Boost ROI by using behavioural patterns in regions


South Korea India

Mexico

Nigeria

Australia

South Korea India Mexico Nigeria Australia

We're social

High penetration of

feature phones , SMS

is widely used

Take surveys @work Heavy online gamers We’re o ile

Social media

recruitment

campaigns

Recruitment via SMS

Send recruitment

emails during working

hours

Incentives gaming

points

Recruitment via

mobile ads

55% acquisition via

social media

Approx. 1000

registrations per day

via SMS

35% increase in open

rate

40% increase in

engagement

64% of registrations

via mobile Result

Acquisition insight

Behaviour

By using behavioral patterns in regions we

experienced a 30% increase in traffic & 16%

decrease in acquisition cost

Lifespan

0

*

After Before Change

Overall Impact

© 2016 Borderless Access

Engagement

Index

0

*

60

71%

38 27

41%

35

Engagement

Cost

0

USD

6

-57%

14

* Derived value

Takeaways


Capturing attention – in

the right way - is a key

challenge for anyone in

business these days

Tracking behaviour in this

unique way means you

know exactly the right

time and medium to

capture attention

With this predictive

capability you increase

your success

Moving forward, you can

shape peoples intention

by prompting them

before something

happens


Near Future

New

Mail!

Jon liked

your

photo!

Time for a

Ben & Jerry

Ice cream

Time for

a sports

drink


Contact-Us

UK LONDON

Tel : +44 771 840 3458

CALIFORNIA

Tel : +1 818 358 4633

USA

BANGALORE

Tel : +91 804 931 3800

India Connect with us

www.borderlessaccess.com

DUBAI

Tel : +97 150 137 3145

GERMANY

Tel : +49 (0) 176 650

94033

UAE

GERMANY

SINGAPORE

Tel : +91 804 931 3800

SINGAPORE

http://www.borderlessaccess.com/

Predicting the future using behavioral data to forecast action

Business

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