PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN …
Transcript of PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN …
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM
DYNAMICS MODELLING
M. Pons, C. Pérez, J.J. de Felipe, E. Jover
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OUTLINEPREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
- Modelling MSW generation- State of Art- Study case context: Andorra
2. METHODOLOGY
3. RESULTS
Scenarios- Scenarios
4 CONCLUSIONS4. CONCLUSIONS
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION
Why? - Utility
1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION
• Waste management planning
• To achieve accurate and reliable waste information
-Municipal waste collection system
-Land demand for landfilling waste
Incinerators capacity evaluation- Incinerators capacity evaluation
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION
Traditional statistical forecasting methods
• Time analysis correlation
• Regression analysis
High quantity and quality data required
1
1. H. A. Abu Qdais, M. F. Hamoda, J. Newham. "Analysis of Residential Solid Waste at Generation Sites". Waste Management & Research. Vol. 15. pp. 395-405, (1997).
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION
System Dynamics Modelling
1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION
Li it d d t
• Fuzzy, not-well defined environmentsQuality of• Limited data
• Large-scale complex systems
Quality of service
• Causal loops Tourist Offer
Infrastructures
Visitors Profits Investments
Offer
Visitors
Overnight
Profits Investments
Overnightstays
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1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
SD Modelling examples
1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION
g p
MSW generation in San Antonio 1
Waste generation, collectioncapacity and electricity in Dhaka 2
Based on economic and demographic information
1.Dyson, B., Chang, N.-B., “Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling.” Waste Management 25 (7), 669-679, (2005).2. Sufian, M.A., Bala B.K., “Modeling of urban solid waste management system: The case of Dhaka city.” Waste Management, 27(7), 858-868, (2007).
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1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
I d d t P i i litIndependent Principality
Population: 84 484 inhabitants
Area: 468 km2
Population: 84.484 inhabitants
Pyrenees
Tourism main economic activityy
10.193.749 visitors in 2008
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Case Study context - Andorra1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
300.000
Tourists 2008
200 000
250.000
150.000
200.000
TOURISTS
50.000
100.000
T
0
Data source: Tourism Department of Andorran Government
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Case Study context - Andorra1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1,35
1,40
MSW kg/person/day
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,15
1,20
kg
1,00
1,05
1,10
0,90
0,95
Data source: Environmental Department of Andorran Government
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1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
Balearic Islands:
1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS
MSW Generation /person /day
1,5 kgWinter
Summer 2,5 kg
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1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
TORREVIEJA URBANWASTE 2001 1
1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS
7
7,5
8
TORREVIEJA URBAN WASTE 2001 1
5
5,5
6
6,5
10 6kg
3
3,5
4
4,5
2,5
High impact of visitors flows on waste generation
Lack of models integrating visitors influence
g p g
1. J.F. Vera Rebollo and J.A. Ivars Baidal, “Measuring Sustainability in a Mass Tourist Destination: Pressures, Perceptions and Policy Responses in Torrevieja, Spain.” Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 11, 181-203, (2003).
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2. METHODOLOGY
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
Model tackling with:
D t it- Data scarcity
- Importance of visitors flows
SD based on:
- Economic
- Visitors flows
- Demographic
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: DYNAMICS SYSTEMS MODEL
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: POPULATION
POPULATIONPOPULATION
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: GDP
RESIDENT ECONOMICPOPULATION ECONOMIC
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: TOURISTS
TOURISTS
RESIDENT ECONOMICVISITORSRESIDENT POPULATION ECONOMICVISITORS
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: TOURISTS
TOURISTS ONE-DAY VISITORS
RESIDENT ECONOMICVISITORSRESIDENT POPULATION ECONOMICVISITORS
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: POPULATION
POPULATIONPOPULATION
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: DYNAMICS SYSTEMS MODEL
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3. RESULTS: SCENARIOS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
AS USUAL SCENARIOAS USUAL SCENARIO
HYPOTHESISHYPOTHESIS:2250 02300,02350,02400,0
GDP
Annual variation rate of variables
1950 02000,02050,02100,02150,02200,02250,0
Dolars
+ 1 %
Annual variation rate of variables
POPULATION 1900,01950,0
-1,2% +1 5% +3%GDP
1,2% +1,5% 3%
- 1,7 %TOURISTS
ONE DAY VISITORS
- 1,3 %
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4. CONCLUSIONS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
SD M d l i t ti d hi d i• SD Model integrating demographic and economicparameters as well as tourist flows
• Correlation between visitor flows and MSW generation
FURTHER WORK
• Compulsory when studying tourist destinations
FURTHER WORK• To validate the model
• To collaborate with local administrations
• To model the recovering energy capacity
• To collaborate with local administrations
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
f th i ll b tifor their collaboration
f f ll hifor a fellowship
and ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!and ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!