Predicting future development in the Tanker industry€¦ · Algeria 4,504 4,504 4,504 4,504 4,504...

Predicting future development in the Tanker industry

Aims of this presentation

Oil trade trends

The future of oil up to 2040

Overview of the world tanker fleet

Safety review

Best management practices for the ship owner / manager

Key elements for successful office TMSA audit and ship vetting by Oil Majors

World proven crude oil reserves (millions of barrels)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

North America 23,446 24,884 33,085 37,893 37,893Canada1 4,325 4,202 4,085 4,893 4,893United States 19,121 20,682 29,000 33,000 33,000Latin America 246,645 332,477 335,698 336,819 338,289Argentina 2,520 2,505 2,505 2,805 2,820Brazil 11,899 11,985 12,841 13,154 13,219Colombia 1,362 1,360 1,900 2,200 2,377Ecuador 6,511 7,206 8,235 8,235 8,832Mexico 10,420 10,160 10,030 10,070 10,070Venezuela 211,173 296,501 297,571 297,735 298,350Others 2,760 2,760 2,616 2,620 2,621Eastern Europe and Eurasia 116,556 117,310 117,314 119,881 119,877Azerbaijan 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000Belarus 198 198 198 198 198Kazakhstan 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000Russia 76,650 77,403 77,403 80,000 80,000Turkmenistan 600 600 600 600 600Ukraine 395 395 395 395 395Uzbekistan 594 594 594 594 594Others 1,119 1,120 1,124 1,094 1,090Western Europe 13,318 13,416 11,722 11,559 12,267Denmark 1,060 812 900 805 805Norway 7,078 7,078 5,320 5,366 5,825United Kingdom 3,100 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,979Others 2,080 2,726 2,702 2,588 2,658Middle East 752,079 794,265 796,855 798,832 803,182IR Iran 137,010 151,170 154,580 157,300 157,800Iraq 115,000 143,100 141,350 140,300 144,211Kuwait 101,500 101,500 101,500 101,500 101,500Oman 5,500 5,500 5,500 5,500 5,500

Qatar 25,382 25,382 25,382 25,244 25,244Saudi Arabia 264,590 264,516 265,405 265,850 265,789Syrian Arab Republic 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500United Arab Emirates 97,800 97,800 97,800 97,800 97,800Others 2,798 2,798 2,838 2,838 2,838Africa 123,648 125,623 126,474 128,371 128,149Algeria 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200 12,200Angola 9,500 9,055 9,055 9,055 9,011Egypt 4,300 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400Gabon 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000Libya 46,422 47,097 48,014 48,472 48,363Nigeria 37,200 37,200 37,200 37,139 37,070Sudans 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000Others 7,026 8,671 8,605 10,105 10,105Asia and Pacific 47,798 49,218 49,666 50,438 50,208Brunei 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100China 21,618 23,268 23,747 24,428 24,428India 5,673 5,673 5,549 5,571 5,654Indonesia 3,990 3,990 3,885 4,030 3,590Malaysia 5,500 5,500 5,850 5,850 5,850Vietnam 4,500 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400Australia 4,239 4,061 3,872 3,872 3,872Others 1,178 1,226 1,263 1,187 1,314Total world 1,323,490 1,457,193 1,470,814 1,483,793 1,489,865of which

OPEC 1,064,288 1,192,727 1,198,292 1,200,830 1,206,170OPEC percentage 80.4 81.9 81.5 80.9 81.0OECD 51,734 52,896 59,073 63,740 64,448FSU 115,536 116,289 116,289 118,886 118,886

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

North America 8,655 9,700 10,524 11,483 10,757Canada 1,727 1,983 1,897 2,022 2,022United States 6,928 7,717 8,627 9,461 8,735Latin America 8,049 8,325 7,886 7,947 8,032Argentina 399 379 359 333 323Bolivia 750 695 281 281 281Brazil 365 358 417 460 459Chile 46 45 43 41 41Colombia 124 134 153 155 162Ecuador 8 8 6 6 6Mexico 359 339 349 360 360Peru 415 345 353 359 435Trinidad and Tobago 500 480 381 375 371Venezuela 5,065 5,525 5,528 5,563 5,581Others 18 17 16 14 13Eastern Europe and Eurasia 60,388 61,180 62,744 65,453 65,505Armenia 164 164 180 180 180Azerbaijan 1,359 1,310 1,317 1,317 1,308Kazakhstan 1,950 1,950 1,913 1,950 1,939Poland 93 98 71 69 73Romania 629 606 595 595 595Russia 44,900 46,000 46,000 48,676 48,810Turkmenistan 8,400 8,340 10,000 10,000 9,967Ukraine 1,020 990 969 969 960Uzbekistan 1,745 1,682 1,661 1,661 1,635Others 128 40 38 36 38Western Europe 5,228 5,001 4,799 4,739 4,604Denmark 118 105 101 95 91Germany 119 98 87 80 71Italy 69 64 66 62 59Netherlands 1,222 1,247 1,161 1,230 1,131Norway 2,985 2,819 2,762 2,685 2,687United Kingdom 601 564 520 481 461Others 114 104 102 106 104Middle East 75,540 78,890 79,581 80,131 80,065IR Iran 29,610 33,090 33,620 33,780 34,020Iraq 3,170 3,158 3,158 3,158 3,158Kuwait 1,784 1,784 1,784 1,784 1,784Oman 690 610 610 950 950

Qatar 25,366 25,201 25,110 25,069 24,681Saudi Arabia 7,920 8,016 8,151 8,235 8,317United Arab Emirates 6,091 6,091 6,091 6,091 6,091Others 908 939 1,057 1,064 1,064Africa 14,747 14,462 14,597 14,569 14,498Algeria 4,504 4,504 4,504 4,504 4,504Angola 275 275 275 275 275Cameroon 235 157 155 153 151Congo 130 130 127 124 121Egypt 2,170 2,185 2,210 2,190 2,185Libya 1,549 1,495 1,547 1,549 1,506Nigeria 5,292 5,110 5,154 5,118 5,111Others 593 607 625 656 645Asia and Pacific 16,476 15,827 16,526 16,757 16,902Bangladesh 344 364 354 474 458Brunei 350 309 301 288 276China 3,090 2,751 2,853 3,051 3,200India 1,116 1,149 1,278 1,331 1,330Indonesia 3,280 2,960 2,963 2,925 2,954Malaysia 2,350 2,362 2,328 2,389 2,550Myanmar 590 510 522 509 496Pakistan 843 818 810 766 723Thailand 340 360 300 285 272Vietnam 217 215 288 224 215Australia 3,145 3,225 3,759 3,730 3,650Others 811 804 770 785 778Total world 189,082 193,385 196,657 201,079 200,363of which

OPEC 90,634 94,257 94,928 95,132 95,034OPEC percentage 47.9 48.7 48.3 47.3 47.4OECD 17,737 18,581 19,829 20,690 19,753FSU 59,543 60,441 62,045 64,758 64,804

World proven natural gas reserves (billions of standard cubic metres)

1,713322,6442,121

336

124

4,764

231

70

30

760

32

129

83

771

814

137

10,6

61

389

2,299

37

510

1,043

1,143 1,0441,052

522 62,604

Middle East

Africa

North America

Europe

229

562718

FSU

Asia

China

Latin America

World crude oil exports in 2013 (1000 barrels per day)

Crude oil production by continent

0200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,000

Barrels per day

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural gas production by continent

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000Million standard cubic metre

20092010201120122013

Crude oil demand by continent

0.0010,000.0020,000.0030,000.0040,000.0050,000.0060,000.0070,000.0080,000.0090,000.00

100,000.00

1000 barrels per day

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Crude oil exports by continent

North America Latin AmericaEastern Europe and Eurasia Western Europe

Middle East AfricaAsia and Pacific Total world

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1000 barrels per day

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Future of the industry

World tanker fleet (per 1000 dwt)

Vessel type Up to 1998 1999-2003 2004-2008 2009-2013 Total

No. DWT No. DWT No. DWT No. DTW No. DWT

GP 16.5-24.9 83 1228 89 1543 260 4123 217 3657 647 10601

MR 25.0-44.9 160 6232 245 9424 409 16290 253 10210 1066 42156

LR1 45.0-79.9 93 4613 149 8277 542 31204 452 25275 1236 69369

LR2 80.0-159.9 185 21553 278 33361 379 45122 450 57199 1292 157235

VLCC 160.0-319.9 59 17546 182 52421 175 48802 255 74039 671 192808

Total 579 51232 943 105016 1764 145541 1626 170379 4912 472169

World liquified gas carrier fleet in 2013 (per 1000 cubic metre)

Vessel type LPG LNG Total

No. Cap. No. Cap. No. Cap.

Up to 19999 960 3971 20 199 980 4170

20000-39999 117 3346 3 94 120 3440

40000-59999 19 1707 - - 19 1707

60000-99999 144 115210 14 1070 158 12591

100000 and over - - 335 51834 335 51834

Total 1240 20545 372 53197 1612 73742

Country LPG LNG Total

No. Cap. No. Cap. No. Cap.

Algeria 8 324 9 1073 17 1397

Angola 5 213 3 263 8 466

Ecuador 5 145 - - 5 145

IR Iran 1 12 - - 1 12

Iraq - - - - - -

Kuwait 4 321 - - 4 321

Libya 2 89 - - 2 8

Nigeria 2 157 24 3346 26 3503

Qatar 4 328 29 5610 33 5938

Saudi Arabia - - - - - -

United Arab Emirates 1 3 8 1096 9 1099

Venezuela 2 24 - - 2 24

OPEC 34 1535 73 11388 107 12913

Total 1240 20545 372 53197 1612 73742

Liquified gas carrier fleet in OPEC Members, 2014(per 1000 cu m)

Vessel type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

No. DWT. No. DWT. No. DWT. No. DWT. No. DWT

10000-39999 3 57 2 42 2 42 2 42 2 42

40000-49999 89 375 8 375 4 182 3 135 2 86

50000-59999 2 108 2 108 1 55 - - - -

60000-69999 2 133 2 132 2 132 1 66 - -

70000-79999 5 375 5 375 4 300 3 225 - -

80000-99999 7 608 7 609 6 510 4 333 - -

100000-119999 12 1305 12 1304 12 1304 10 1098 10 1098

120000-129999 2 241 2 241 2 241 2 241 2 241

130000-319999 3 471 8 2068 7 1915 5 1599 5 1599

Total 44 3673 48 5253 40 4681 30 3739 21 3066

World combined carrier fleet by size (per 1000 dwt)

Dirty tanker spot freight rates (% of Worldscale and $ per t)

Year ME/EAST ME/WEST WAF/EAST WAF/USGC WEST/USGC INDO/EAST CAR/USEC MED/MED MED/WEST

% $/t % $/t % $/t % $/t % $/t % $/t % $/t % $/t % $/t

2003 101 7.20 84 14.3 89 15.4 136 15,0 137 13,3 161 11,4 207 10,1 191 5,8 185 12,4

2004 156 11,9 123 22,5 126 23,6 196 23,1 193 19,9 226 17,2 259 12,7 225 7,2 220 13,2

2005 109 8,5 89 16,9 96 18,6 157 19,1 152 16,2 198 15,6 218 10,8 194 6,9 186 12,0

2006 102 9,1 82 17,6 92 20,2 147 20,5 140 17,0 178 15,7 206 11,5 166 6,5 163 11,8

2007 91 9,5 67 16,9 77 20,0 118 19,4 119 16,7 148 14,9 169 11,0 145 6,4 142 12,0

2008 136 14,5 99 22,5 118 31,2 177 29,5 166 23,9 192 19,8 233 15,5 206 9,4 199 17,4

2009 42 6,2 31 10,9 45 16,7 65 14,9 61 11,9 69 9,8 83 7,5 83 4,9 78 9,0

2010 73 7,9 51 13,3 74 19,9 98 6,9 93 13,7 112 12,1 135 9,4 117 5,6 115 11,0

2011 53 7,0 39 12,3 53 17,5 77 16,0 72 12,7 99 12,8 108 8,9 101 5,5 100 10,6

2012 48 7,5 33 12,3 49 19,3 67 16,7 60 12,6 91 14,0 105 10,2 88 5,6 88 10,9

2013 41 7,1 26 12,0 41 17,7 57 15,4 52 11,7 79 13,3 102 10,8 81 5,4 77 10,3

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

50

100

150

200

250

300

ME/EAST% WAF/EAST % WAF/USGC % WEST/USGC % INDO/EAST % CAR/USEC % MED/MED % MED/WEST % ME/WEST%

Graph showing spot freight rates (% of Worldscale)

Graph showing dirty tankers spot freight costs ($/t)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ME/EAST $/t ME/WEST $/t WAF/EAST $/t WAF/USGC $/t WEST/USGC $/t INDO/EAST $/t CAR/USEC $/t MED/MED $/t MED/WEST $/t

Year ME/EAST SING/EAST WEST/USEC MED/MED MED/WEST

% $/t % $/t % $/t % $/t % $/t

2003 231 28,9 264 16,5 258 19,5 268 8,4 278 17,4

2004 255 33,8 296 19,8 289 23,2 289 9,2 298 19,7

2005 276 37,5 330 22,6 312 25,4 292 11,0 302 21,7

2006 216 33,2 277 21,2 271 24,7 256 10,4 266 21,4

2007 183 32,7 218 19,2 250 26,3 238 10,8 247 22,9

2008 250 45,6 244 22,0 264 28,5 251 12,0 261 25,0

2009 95 24,0 89 10,9 103 15,1 112 6,3 122 15,2

2010 134 25,3 137 12,9 166 18,7 175 8,7 185 18,2

2011 125 28,6 148 16,6 167 22,3 166 9,2 175 20,1

2012 116 31,6 130 17,3 134 21,2 153 9,5 162 21,6

2013 103 30,4 126 18,3 125 21,6 145 8,9 154 22,1

Clean tanker spot freight rates (% of Worldscale and $ per t)

Year AlgeriaZarzaitine

AngolaCabinda

IR IranIran Light

LibyaBrega

NigeraForcados

QatarDukhan

SaudiArab Heavy

2003 28.99 28.01 26.89 28.89 28.65 27.44 26.43

2004 38.53 35.54 34.60 38.35 38.10 36.05 31.14

2005 54.87 51.20 50.66 54.22 55.60 53.46 45.28

2006 66.31 62.07 61.07 65.04 67.07 65.39 56.82

2007 74.16 69.65 69.30 72.93 74.49 72.33 64.18

2008 99.33 94.29 94.66 98.12 101.42 98.39 88.12

2009 62.63 61.42 61.25 62.16 63.35 62.86 60.25

2010 80.34 79.13 78.18 79.67 81.06 79.36 75.56

2011 112.26 110.09 108.29 112.89 113.65 108.86 104.06

2012 111.18 112.10 109.79 111.45 114.21 110.34 108.32

2013 108.85 108.47 107.19 108.88 111.95 107.05 103.89

Selected spot crude oil prices ($/b)

Year UAEDubai

IndonesiaAttaka

IndonesiaMinas

OmanOman

EgyptSuez Blend

UKBrent Dtd

2003 26.77 29.58 29.52 27.14 25.76 28.81

2004 33.66 40.87 36.85 34.35 32.19 38.23

2005 49.36 57.26 54.01 50.48 47.71 54.44

2006 61.54 67.91 65.23 62.59 58.74 65.16

2007 68.38 75.44 73.56 68.86 66.78 72.55

2008 93.85 102.16 100.65 94.51 91.68 97.37

2009 61.83 64.00 64.90 62.06 58.38 61.68

2010 78.10 81.78 82.28 78.34 75.40 79.60

2011 106.21 115.50 114.79 106.63 106.18 111.36

2012 109.07 114.71 116.60 109.35 107.62 111.62

2013 105.45 107.29 107.41 105.51 105.35 108.62

Selected spot crude oil prices ($/b)

75 large vessels lost worldwide in 2014, down by a third year on year

South China and South East Asian waters are top loss hotspots

Increasing size of container ships and floating ofshore storage facilities could cause larger losses exceeding $1 billion

Cyber risks a growing concern in shipping sector, particularly around e-navigation and cargo Load computers

Crewing levels, Arctic shipping, the increase in human trafficking by sea and further geo-political uncertainty create new industry risks

Safety Review 2014

Total losses in 2014

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

50

100

150

200

149154

170

149

128124

91

121110

75

Total losses by year

Total losses from 2005 to 2014

96

6

2

562

163

7

82

3

59 41

35253

17

158

12

353

3

293

3

All other regions

Total losses by region: from Jan 1 2005 – Dec 31 2014

Total losses by region: from Jan 1 2014 – Dec 31 2014

Losses declined by 30% compared with previous year and well below the 10-year loss average of 127

Since 2005 shipping losses have declined by 50%

More than a third of 2014‘s total losses were in two maritime regions. South China, Indonesia and the Philippines (17 ships) and Japan, Korea and North China (12 ships)

Cargo and fishing vessels accounted for over 50% of the losses

The most common cause of total losses is foundering (sinking / submerging), accounting for 65% of the losses in 2014 (49)

With 13 ships wrecked or stranded, grounding was the second most commong cause with fires / explosions (4) third, but significantly down year-on-year.


According to the reports, there were 2,773 shipping incidents (casualties) globally (including total losses) during 2014

The East Mediterannean & Black Sea region was the top hotspot (490), up 5% year-on-year. The British Isles, North Sea, English Channel and Bay of Biscay ranked second (465), up 29%, and was also the top incident hotspot over the past decade

December is the worst month for losses in the Northern Hemisphere and August in the Southern Hemisphere

One vessel in the Great Lakes region of North America lays claim to the title of unluckiest ship. Analysis shows it has reportedly been involved in 19 incidents in the past 8 years – including six in one year. It has suffered a fire, engine failure, steering failure and even hit a submerged log


Piracy in 2014

Polar Code

The shipping industry has welcomed the recent arrival of the Polar Code which aims to curb risks from increased traffic in the Arctic and Antarctica. Analysis shows there were 55 reported shipping incidents in Arctic Circle waters during 2014 including one total loss. There were just 3 in 2005. While the code addresses many safety issues, questions remain, particularly around crew training, vessel suitability and potential clean-up. The Polar Code will need constant revision. Any shipping problems encountered and best practices to employ should be outlined at the end of each season.

Other risks

Collision of cargo ship Rickmers Dubai with unmanned craned barge

Training standards for ECDIS

Misinterpretation of ECDIS data, overreliance of e-navigation

Manual navigation aids and skills are still crucial

Concern over rise in geo-political tension

Increase in human trafficking creates additional strain on SAR resources

207,000 migrants crossed the Mediterranean Sea in 2014 because of the Syrian Civil War

Middle East conflict puts increasing pressure on the supply chain

Other risks

Piracy thrives in different parts of the world despite good progress in Somalia and the Gulf of Guinea

Attacks in East Asian waters are on the increase

Bangladesh is a new piracy hotspot

Other risks

Siphoning fuel or oil from trankers at sea is not a new phenomenon

Statistics reveal that such incidents are occuring more frequently

Surge in incidents could be due to market, demand and an absence of regulation

Other risks

Cyber risks is another new threat to shipping

Cyber attack of on board technology could have catastrophic consequences

Ports, terminals and container data are potential targets

Companies must identify appopriate mitigating strategies to ensure business continuity

Other risks

Best management practices - definition

Best practice is an accepted procedure, described systematically in the existing solutions and experiences of successful companies

A comprehensive restructing of an organization / company is usually not practicalThe organization‘s success can be improved, at leasr in certain areas, through the implementation of ad-hoc measures (good practice)77% of respondents in a survey (shown on the next slide) confirmed that organizational structures or processes are being changed at this moment – new methods / tools are being introduced90% are actively seeking best practice within their fieldof actionTwo thirds compare their operations to the competition and 38% are looking to take advantage of external consultantsOther options in the survey were: benchmarking, internal and external working groups or to seek greater integration / combination with other companies

Best management practices


Many ship management activities are integrated into large owner-operator companies, like the big container lines (Maersk, MSC or Hapag Lloyd)

If shipowners ask what they require from a ship manager, the priorities lie in high reliability, low operational costs, high crew quality and good communication with the ship managers.

Best management practices - Crewing

Invest in culture and teamwork

Invest in crew welfare packages

Integrate training, appraisal and development management systems

Use a combination of personal and computer based training

Use an integrated crewing solution onboard and ashore

Best management practices - Crewing

Best management practices - Technical

Organize along processes

Build processes around a state-of-the-art planned maintenance system

Harmonize and centralize the management of master data

Manage a key element of your maintenance budget: dry dockings

Pay attention to hull maintenance

Embrace condition based maintenance

Best management practices – Condition monitoring

Trust your visual inspections: Looking, listening, smelling or manual measurement has always been a trustworthy source of condition informationTake vibration measurements – compare current readings with maker / manufacturer guidancePerform regular and systematic oil analysisEnrich your information baseLife cycle: the effectiveness and suitability of a piece of equipment or system is not decided at the purchase but over its lifetime, taking into account all maintenance and repair costs, possible off hire hours and other costs involved

Best management practices - Technical

Best management practices – Financial management

Integrate operations with finance

Simplify and harmonize the accounting structures

Centralize the invoice registration process

Harmonize and automate reporting

Invest in cash management procedures

Best management practices – Quality and safety

Move from QS to QHSE

Deploy and monitor regular crew training on safety issues

Nuture a No Accusation / No Blame culture

Use integrated Quality and Safety solution

Automatically produce regular quality and safety KPI reports fleet-wide

Have risk assessment integrated in regular processes

Best management practices – management system standards

Quality Management System standard (ISO 9001)

How companies produce quality products and services while meeting stakeholder needs and complying with regulationsEnvironmental Management System standard (ISO 14001)

Managing the efficient use of resources and compliance with environmental legislationEnergy Management System standard (ISO 50001)

Continual improvement of energy performance including energy efficiency, energy security, energy use and consumptionOccupational Health and Safety standard (BS OHSAS 18001)

Consistently identify and control health and safety risks, reduce the potential for accidents and aid legislative compliance

Best management practices – Quality and safety

Best management practices – Procurement(Costs per 1,000 Euros)

Best management practices - Procurement

No purchase outside the sytem (no maverick buying)

Harmonize and centralize the management of master data

Automate and simplify the process

Communicate with suppliers electronically

Plan demands fleet wide

Embrace strategic sourcing activities

Reduce number of suppliers

Best management practices - Procurement

Best management practices - ICT

IT Budgets are not cut back

A generation change in management lowers barriers

Software usage strategies vary but come closer together

The buying criteria are stable

Many implementation projects fall short of expectations

Need for services around software is increasing across the board

Best management practices - ICT

Key elements for successful office TMSA audit and ship vetting by Oil Majors

Management and LeadershipRecruitment and management of shore-based personnelRecruitment and management of vessel personnelReliability and maintenance standardsNavigational SafetyCargo, Ballast and mooring operationsManagement of changeIncident Investigation and analysisSafety ManagementSafety Management – Fleet monitoringEnvironmental ManagementEmergency preparadness and contingency planningMeasurement, analysis and improvement

Thank you for your attention

Captain Kuzman Popov, LLM, MICSMSQ & Operations Manager

Sources:

World Oil Outlook 2014 published by OPECCrude Oil Global Market 2014 published by OPECBest Practice Study 2014 published by DNV-GLOwn data

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Predicting future development in the Tanker industry€¦ · Algeria 4,504 4,504 4,504 4,504 4,504...

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