Predicting effects on Water Productivity and the Water Balance
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Transcript of Predicting effects on Water Productivity and the Water Balance
PREDICTING EFFECTS ON
WATER PRODUCTIVITY
AND THE WATER
BALANCE
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR:
Workshop Objectives Review available assessments of present and future water availability
and use at the watershed and basin-scale and identify scope for updates to reflect the full potential of improvements in on-farm land and water management
> Inform regional decision-makers and other key stakeholders at the benchmark sites of the relevance and potential further use of outputs from decision support tools to evaluate options for improved management of land, water and livelihoods > Stimulate knowledge exchange and research collaboration amongst WLI research teams using and developing tools to support integrated water and land-use strategies with key stakeholders
Results Anticipated
Outputs> Enhanced Annual Reports, Country Research Reports and PPTs from 8 countries and regional team> Short workshop report including list of participants > Materials online for other interested researchers to benefit from
Outcomes > WLI thematic research group on decision support tools and models activated> WLI thematic research group on water use efficiency activated> Improved connection of WLI pilot testing to strategic level decision-making and improved outscaling strategies for integrated land and water management> Improved management of land, water and livelihoods in WLI countries
1. ….WHAT IS A LIVELIHOOD? (see Workshop Report on WLI Website)
2. WHAT IS AN IMPROVED LIVELIHOOD?3. HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO IMPROVE RURAL LIVELIHOODS?4. HOW WILL WE KNOW THAT IT IMPROVED?5. HOW WILL WE KNOW THAT THE IMPROVEMENT RESULTED FROM THE WLI PILOT TESTING ACTIVITY?
PREDICTING FUTURE WATER PRODUCTIVITY:Remaining Challenges• Scale challenge• Diversity of land and water
conditions and qualities• Diversity of cropping patterns• Integrating crops and
livestock• Other uses of water• Water reuse• Definition and measurement
of water consumption
• (Economic aspects, prices, future uncertainties)
Use GIS to address
Use Crop Syst to address
Use GIS and SaltMod to address
Work with economists to capture
Work with farmers to identify
Define our approach (refer to FAO 66 ?)
ASSESSMENTS OF WATER BALANCE
Remaining Challenges• Integration of WLI data elements• Scale challenges• Temporal challenges for
prediction of future water availability
• Uncertainty, variability• Data access (real and perceived)• Inter-sectoral cooperation• Some water sources less well
understood –i.e. groundwater, reusable wastewater
Assess state of knowledge & gaps
Scale down from national water balance assessments to address
Scale down from climate change assessments to address
Use statistical techniques to fillgaps and account for
Refer to existing applications of WEAP, enhance and contribute
Use SWAT to deepen understandingof complex processes in soil and water
KEY TOPICS FOR REGIONAL KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE
Challenge• Reaching decision-makers• Modeling climatic effects in cropping
systems including trees (global climatic changes & regulation of the microclimate for improved soil and crop productivity)
• Modeling surface-groundwater interactions in rainfed and irrigated agroecosystems
• Assessing water productivity in integrated crop and livestock systems
Decision Support Tools• WEAP• AquaCrop and Crop Syst
• SWAT
• CEH Wallingford & Economic models
with impr. mgtCropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:
Annual Water Use
m3/yr
Gross Margin/m3
$/m3/yr
Cropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:
Annual Water Use
m3/yr
Gross Margin/m3
$/m3/yr
Cropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:
Annual Water
Use m3/yr
Gross Margin/m3
$/m3/yr
Pres
ent
w.out impr. mgt
Water BalancereusegroundwaterSurface inflowsrainfed
19902000
20102020
20302040
20500
40
80
19902000
20102020
20302040
20500
40
80
Futu
re M
anag
emen
t Str
ateg
ies
Benchmark Site
WORKSHOP PURPOSE:To identify scope for available watershed and basin-scale water balance assessments to include scenarios demonstrating improvements in integrated management of land, water and livelihoods to be achieved through upscaling of WLI pilot-tested strategies and technologies
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
potential water savings inagricultureagricultural water use
min ETP for foodproductionindustry
domestic
THANK YOUContact: [email protected]