Predicting bankruptcy - Springer978-0-230-28865-2/1.pdf · Predicting bankruptcy Source: The above...
Transcript of Predicting bankruptcy - Springer978-0-230-28865-2/1.pdf · Predicting bankruptcy Source: The above...
Annex
Predicting bankruptcy
Source: www.bnkruptcyaction.com/bankpred2.htm
The above mentioned link provides the software that handles the calculation. The authors claim that this Bankruptcy Predictor has proved to have an accu
racy rate of over 88 percent for small businesses (average asset size US$2.5 million) and an accuracy rate of over 83 percent for very large businesses (average asset size US$63.4 million). A negative score predicts bankruptcy.
Variable
Current Assets
Interest Expense
Profit or loss before taxes
Performance level Variable
Sales
Total Assets
Current liabilities
Calculate score
Performance level
The higher the score, the more financially sound is the company. The lower the score, the greater the danger of the company becoming insolvent. This technique should be considered complementary to other tools. The formula used is the "Springate Formula" developed at Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia.
171
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Index
Abu Dhabi, 65, 159 achievement motivation, 130, 131-2
characteristics and attitudes, 114 action program, 23 actualization, 101, 102 Africa, 51, 60, 81 Air France, 60 Al Habtoor Group, 159-60 Al Tomooh and Sheik Moh Ben
Rashid Foundation, 145 Albert, M., 109 Algeria, 83 American venture capital firm, 144 Anglo-Saxon model, 109 Ansoff, 1., 3, 27, 29 Ansoff's growth matrix, 16, 17-18 Anthony, R., 24, 75 Arab entrepreneur, 117
bright side, 129-30: achievement motivation, 131-2; locus of control, 132-3
call it quits, 162-3: performancerelated sign of trouble, 164; personal goal, 163-4; personrelated sign of trouble, 165; reentry, 168; seriousness of issue, 165-6; situation, 168-9
dark side, 129, 130: distrust of environment, 133-4; propensity to enterprise, 134-5
entry barriers: biased business choice, 124; conditions for exit, 125; finance, 125; lack of identity, 124; minority status, 124; motivation, 123; nonguided entry, 124-5; nonguided project choice, 124; regulation, 123-4; understanding and choosing technology, 125
exit barriers: cost, 127; lack of alternatives, 127; restart, 127; social stigma, 127
propensity to enterprise, 119-21 self-employment, 118-19 small business sickness, 121-2:
source, 122; types, 127-8 survival barriers: administrative and
regulatory requirement, 125; daily conduct, 125; finance, 126; market information, 126; technology shifts, 126; unfair competition, 126
Asia, 60, 79, 109 Asian entrepreneur, 143 Asian model, 109 Australia, 60, 131
Bahrain, 69, 155 Bahrain Monetary Agency, 144 balanced score card, 24, 75 BeG portfolio analysis, 18-19 Boulding, K., 32, 105 Brazil, 72 British Airways, 60 Buckman, R., 150 business performance-related
problems, 166, 167
capital in Dubai, 43 in Singapore, 45
capital market, 35 capitalism, 32
quasi-European type, 38-9 capitalist thinking system
177
entrepreneurial behavior root, 105: breeds, 108-9; inputs, 105-7; outputs, 108; transformation mechanism, 108
in Syria, 32: breed, 38-9; disabling conditions, 37-8; enabling conditions, 37; feedback, 37; GDP growth, 37; input, 35; output, 33, 37; system-specific quantitative parameters, 34;
178 Index
capitalist thinking system - continued transformation mechanism, 33,
36-7 Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
of family firms, 159-60 succession, 21
China, 52, 70, 72, 149 venture capital: corporate VC fund,
152; government as enabler, 151; managed intervention, 153; provincial government VC fund, 152-3; structure, 150-1; unique products, 151-2; university VC fund, 152
China New Technology Start-up Investment Company, 150
Clausewitz, Carl von, 6 competitive rivalry, 63 contemporary, 91, 101 core competency fitness test, 77 corporate culture, 22-3 corporate governance, 10 created value added, 110 creative destruction, 32, 99 culture's consequences and
dimensions, 130, 133, 134, 168, 169
detachment, 4, 28 distrust of environment, 133-4 diversification, 18, 63, 64 Drucker, P., 99-100, 101, 109, 110 Dubai, 40, 160
analytical framework, 41-2 capita!, 43 demand condition, 43 firm strategy, 44 government, 43, 60 infrastructure, 42 investment climate, 43 labor, 42 labor market, 42, 43 learn form Singapore's mistakes,
49-50 relatedness and supporting
industry, 43-4 and Singapore, comparative
view, 47-9
Dubai Chamber of Commerce, 155 Dubai Islamic Bank, 145 Dutch petrochemical corporation
(DSM),69
economically active population, 111, 120
efficiency objectives, 13, 30 learning objectives, 15 productivity objective, 15
Egypt, 57, 83, 86-7, 121, 130, 131, 132-3
external orientation parameters, 87-8
government, 88-9 public enterprises, competitiveness,
88 strategic choice, 88-9
El Namaki, M., 9, 23, 52, 53,111, 119-20, 121, 123, 131, 134, 135
Emirates Airlines, 59-60 business model, 61-2 competitive profile, 60-1 strategic behavior, 63 strategy, 62-4; effectiveness,
64-7 employer, 111, 119 entrepreneur, 99, 100-101
function, 101-3 see also Arab entrepreneur
entrepreneurial behavior root capitalist thinking system, 105:
breed, 108-9; input, 105-7; output, 108; transformation mechanism, 108
entrepreneurial traits, 103-5 entrepreneurship, 99-100
capitalist thinking, implication, 109-10
demand-side perspective, 113 free market thinking, implication,
109-10 measurement, 111-12 supply-side perspective,
112-13 Etihad Airways, 65 Europe, 60, 79, 109, 156 European mode!, 109
family business, 155 in GCC state: case studies, 158-60;
conglomeration, 161; divergence areas, 157-8; explicit SCA, absence, 162; exploiting opportunities made by national development strategy, 160-1; innovation or R&D, 161; manufacturing or processing, connection with, 161; respect scale, 161-2; response to government strategy, 161; share and management, 156-7
Far East, 60, 90 financial growth objectives, 13-14 Flanagan, M., 64-5 Ford, 74-5, 78, 79 Foreign Direct Investment (FOI), 45,
46, 149, 151 formalization, 4, 28 France, 156
Gao,]., 151 Geleen,69 Gelsenkirchen, 69 GEM (Global Entrepreneurship
Monitor) report, 112, 139, 142 Germany, 156 Global Emerging Markets Group, 144 globalization, 10 Goldsmith, A., 4, 29 Goodman, J. B., 84 Govindarajan, V., 24, 75 growth objectives, 12-13, 30
financial growth objectives, 13-14 market growth objectives, 14
Gulf Air, 60 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
state, 138-9 family business, 155: case studies,
158-60; conglomeration, 161; divergence areas, 157-8; explicit SCA, absence, 162; exploiting opportunities made by national development strategy, 160-1; innovation or R&D, 161; manufacturing or
Index 179
processing, connection with, 161; respect scale, 161-2; response to government strategy, 161; share and management, 156-7
venture capital in, 139-40: case studies, 144-5; experience, 142-3; growth, 147-8; investor, 140-2; small business finance, 139, 145-6; types, 143-4
Gulf Finance House (GFH), 144
Handy, C. B., 22 Harvey, v., 46 Hill, Charles W. L., 24, 75 Hofstede, G., 130-1, 133, 168 HSBC fund, 145 hyper-competition, 10
ILO (International Labor Organization), 111, 118, 119
India, 70, 72 individualism, 130, 169 industry fitness test, 76-7 infrastructure, 57
in Dubai, 42 in Saudi Arabia, 71 in Singapore, 45
Injazat Technology Fund, 144-5 instability in Middle East, 71 international market
Libya's strategic position, 50-1: SBAs, 51-3, 54-7; starting position, 53-5
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 83,85
intrapreneurship, 100 investment climate
in Dubai, 43 in Singapore, 45-6
Iran Foreign Investment Corporation (IFIC), 145
Iraq, 59 Ireland, 117 Irish Development Authority (IDA), 117 Islamic Corporation for the
Development of the Private Sector (ICD), 144
180 Index
Islamic Development Bank (IDB), 144
Japan, 117 Jayid, A. Ahmed, 83 Jones, G. R., 24, 75 Jubail United Petrochemical Co., 69
Kaplan, R. S., 24, 75 Ketz de Vries, M., 100, 129, 136 Khalaf Al Habtoor, 159 KLM,60 Kodak, 74, 78 Korea, 177 Kuwait,155
labor in Dubai, 42
labor market in Dubai, 42, 43
learning objectives, 15 Lebanon, 59, 160 Libya, 50-1, 155
government, 51 SBAs, 54-7: energy, 56-7; global
positioning, 51-3: tourism, 57 starting position, 53-5
Liedkta, ]., 8 locus of control, 132-3 logistics, 71 long-term orientation, 130 Loveman, G. W., 84 Lufthansa, 60
Malaysia, 117, 126, 138 management, 101, 122, 152 managerial role, of entrepreneur,
102-3 Mandel]., 107 market development, 18,63 market growth objectives, 14 market penetration, 17, 63 masculinity, 130 McClelland, D., 100, 113, 114, 130,
131 Mexico, 72 Middle East, 59, 60, 63, 67, 69, 71, 81,
90 military strategy, 6 Mintzberg, H., 3, 4, 27-8, 100, 102
Misr Spinning and Weaving, 79-81, 88
Mohammed Al Habtoor, 160 Mohieddin, Mahmoud, 81 Morocco, 121, 155 motivational need
types, 113-14
the Netherlands, 38, 41, 73, 75, 163 Nordhaus, D., 107 Norton, D. P., 24, 75
Omar Effendi, 83 open skies policy, 60-1 organization culture, see corporate
culture organizational complexity, 10 own account worker, 111, 119
paid employment, 110, 121 Palestine, 59 person-related problems, 166, 167 petrochemical industry, 68, 69-70,
72-3 Pettijohn, T. E, 132 Phang,Sock-Yong,44 planning model
fallacy, 4, 28 Polaroid, 74, 78-9 Porter, M. E., 4, 10,27,41,62, 70 Porters "Diamond Analysis", 27, 41,
42 potential fitness test, 76 power distance, 130, 169 power of buyers, 63 power of suppliers, 62 predetermination, 4, 28 private equity finance, see venture
capital privatization, 83, 84
in Egypt, 86-7: external orientation parameters, 87-8; public enterprises, competitiveness, 88: strategic choice, 88-9
in Saudi Arabia, 92: external orientation parameters, 92-3: public enterprises, competitiveness, 93-4; strategic choice, 94-5
privatization - continued strategic options matrix, 85-6 in Syria, 89-90: external orientation
parameters, 90; public enterprises, competitiveness, 91; strategic choice, 91-2
product development, 18, 63 productivity objective, 15 propensity to enterprise (PTE), 111,
119-21, 131, 134-5
Qantas,60
raw material supply, 71 Ray, ].]., 131 "Reach" program, 70 resource fitness test, 77 return on investment (ROI), 12,
15-16, 30 The rise and fall of strategic planning, 4,
27-8 Russia, 72
Samuelson, P., 107 Saudi Arabia, 67, 73,90,92, 121, 131,
132-3 competitive advantage, 70-1 external orientation parameters, 92-3 government, 68, 94 public enterprises, competitiveness,
93-4 strategic choice, 94-5
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABlC), 67-70, 93-4
base chemical, 73 competitive advantage real, 73 down stream, 73 issue of size, 74 vision and strategy, 71-3
Saudi Economic and Development Company (SEDCO), 145
Saudi Telecommunication Co (STC), 83, 92
Schumpeter,]., 32, 99, 100, 115 self-employment, 111, 118-19 shared services organization, 69, 72 Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum,
64-5, 159 Shirley, M., 83, 86
sickness, 121-2 source, 123 types, 127-8, 165
Index 181
Singapore, 38, 40, 41, 44 analytical framework, 41-2 demand condition, 46 and Dubai, comparative view, 47-9 firm strategy, structure and rivalry,
46-7 foreign direct investment, 45 government, 46 infrastructure, 45 investment climate, 45-6 relatedness and supporting industry,
46 strong workforce, 45 venture capital, 45
small business, 117, 141, 146 sickness, 121-2: source, 123; types,
127-8 small business finance, 139, 147-8
needs, 145-6 South Korea, 52 Spreng, D., 143 Steiner, G., 3, 27, 29 strategic behavior,S, 18
drivers, 9-11, 30 levels, 26
Strategic Business Arenas (SBAs) energy, 56-7 global positioning, 51-3 tourism, 57
Strategic Business Unit (SBU), 17, 24-5, 52, 69, 159
strategic choice, 16-17 for Egypt's textile industry, 88-9 for Saudi Arabia's SABlC, 94-5 for Syria's telecommunication
industry, 91 Strategic Competitive Advantage
(SCA),162 strategic control, 10-11,23-4, 74, 75
Arab illustration, 79-81 core competency fitness test, 77 industry fitness test, 76-7 versus management control, 76 non-Arab case illustration, 78-9 potential fitness test, 76 resource fitness test, 77
182 Index
strategic management, 4, 6-7 strategic planning, 3, 6, 27-8 strategic shift
major strategic shift, 20, 21 minor strategic shift, 20
strategic thinking, 7-8 attribute, 8
strategy, 6 definition, 3-4
strategy analysis, 9, 29 strategy formulation, 16-17,27,28
corporate level, 25 macro level, 26
strategy implementation, 19,20,22 strategy making, 3
business level, 24-5 environment level, 25-7 strategic behavior, 5, 18: drivers,
9-11,30; levels, 26 strategy analysis, 9, 29
Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs), 85
substitution effect, 62 sustainable competitive advantage,
9-10 SWOT analysis, 11-12, 13,30 Syria, 89-90, 121
capitalist thinking system in, 31: breed, 38-9; disabling conditions, 37-8; enabling conditions, 37; feedback, 37; GDP growth, 37; input, 35; output, 33, 37; system-specific quantitative parameters, 34; transformation mechanism, 33, 36-7
external orientation parameters, 90 public enterprises, competitiveness,
91 strategic choice, 91-2
Syrian Korean Company (SKC), 91 Syrian Telecommunications
Establishment (STE), 91
Taiwan, 52, 117 Tan, Kim-Song, 44 Thailand, 38,90, 117, 121, 138 threat of entrants, 62 Total Entrepreneurial Activity, 111-12 Tunisia, 57, 83
UAE, 41, 130, 131, 132-3, 140, 160 uncertainty avoidance, 130, 169 United Kingdom, 41, 131, 156, 160 United States, 38, 70, 73, 109, 123,
135, 139, 142-3, 147, 156
venture capital, 45, 139-40 in China, 149: corporate VC fund,
152; government as enabler, 151; managed intervention, 153; provincial government VC fund, 152-3; structure, 150-1; unique products, 151-2; university VC fund, 152
in GCC, 138-9: case studies, 144-5; experience, 142-3; growth, 147-8; investor, 140-2; small business finance, 139, 145-6; types, 143-4
venture capital Bank of Bahrain, 144 Ville roy & Bosch, 157 vision and visionary zeal, 9
Welch, ]., 28 White, S., 151 Wilken, P., 100, 114-15 William Clarke & Sons, 157 World Bank, 53, 83, 85, 134 World Economic Forum, 47
Global Competitiveness Index, 41 World Trade Organization (WTO),
49-50,51,92
Yemen, 121
Zhang, W, 151