PRD Jens Gaunt Quarterly Economic & Property Report | Q4 2011

Quarterly Economic& Property ReportAUSTRALIAQuarter 4 | 2011

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY REPORT

NATIONAL RESEARCH REPORT

www.prdnationwide.com.au

Q4 2011 | QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT

•CPI: 3.6%

• SVHL Rate: 7.8%

• AUS Unemployment Rate: 5.2%

• AUS Population Growth: 1.2%

• Average AUS Fuel Price: $1.42 pl

KEY FACTS

Overview - General Economic and Property Overview

As we enter the fourth quarter to 2011, most of the world still holds its breath when looking at the three global economic environments (the US, EU and China) for stability. Although Australia has proved to be insulated and economically robust from the troubles overseas, thereisnodoubtthatthevolatilityhasaffectedsentimentandconfidenceovertheyear.Wehave seen how the volatility in the global economyhas squashed confidence andtoyed with the equity markets in Australia, but where does this originate from? The economic concerns of Europe and the US are looked at further in this edition. With this in mind most Australian executives are still more concerned about the Asian economic slowdown, rather than the Europe sovereign debt default.

So far house prices have experienced no rapid crash, but more of a prolonged softening over the year, with the most optimistic expectations of market to pick up again in late 2012. Like the current period of price softening, the rebuild to the property market will not be a rapid rush, but rather slow and steady. It has been said before, but worth noting again, buyers wanting bargains should be taking advantage of current market conditions.

Unbelievably commodity prices have recently become shaky, on the back of dampening expectations global economic growth and softening demand from China. Meanwhile the cost of living continues to increase with fuel prices starting to soar again, largely attributed to the weakening Australian dollar. The retail environment is continuing to change from bricks and mortar to an online environment, with retailers having to adapt quickly. There have been large shifts in the trends of migration throughout 2011, with rate of international migration falling, while Western Australia has become the most popular state domestically. As a key market indicator for where we might be headed, I would keep an eye on the Australian unemployment rate and its movements.

Confidence

SENTIMENT HIGH IN WESTERN AUSTRALIAThe long-term Australian Consumer Sentiment Index of a six month moving average has decreased by 15.7 points from December 2010 to register 98.3 points. Not since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 has pessimists outweighed optimists in the Index. It appears that the prolonged period of households living under the uncertain future of interest rates and the volatile international economic environment has taken its toll on Australian sentiment.

On a monthly basis the Australian Consumer Sentiment Index surprisingly increased slightly by 7.3 points over the month of September 2011, to record a score of 96.9 points.

OutofthefivestatesmeasuredfortheIndex,sentimentishighestinWesternAustraliaat108 points, which experienced a further monthly increased of 20.7 per cent (on from a 26 per cent increase on the previous month). South Australia recorded the lowest Index score at 93.4 points, followed by New South Wales at 94.6 points. Queensland experienced the smallest increase in sentiment of 1.9 per cent to reach an Index score of 96.8 points.

Sentiment has fallen with good reason, as the ABS has reported that total household assets have decreased by $23 billion, with housing prices and the sharemarket falls being the catalyst.

• The Consumer Sentiment Index indicates short-run changes to consumer willingness to purchase goods in the forthcoming quarter.

• The Index is based on a monthly survey of 1,200 Australian households conducted by the Melbourne Institute and Westpac.

• It represents current and future perspectives of the broad economic climate and household financial state.

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Australian Consumer Sentiment Index Six Month Moving Average

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: Westpac/Melbourne Institute, last updated Oct-2011

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RESEARCH REPORT | Q4 2011 | QUARTERLY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY REPORT | NATIONAL

PRDnationwide

Confidence cont.

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE FLUCTUATESOvertheJune2011quarter,confidencehasdecreasedonceagainbythreeIndexpointstorecord 6.0, showing the fragility of confidence in themarket. Despite the low level ofconfidence,theIndexremainssignificantlyaboveGFCorrecessionarylows.

RecentdatareleasedbytheNABforthemonthofAugusthasbusinessconfidencefallingin all states (except in WA, which was unchanged). Tasmania experienced the largest decreaseof23points to register -35on the Index. Confidence remains thehighest inWestern Australia at +5 points, followed by Queensland at +2 points.

AccordingtotheNABmostindustriesreportedfallingconfidenceinAugust,withthelargestdecreasefeltinfinance,businessandproperty(decreaseof17pointsto-13)duetotheinstability of the equitymarkets. Confidence is at itsweakest inmanufacturing at -17points, while strongest in mining (+18 points) and construction (+3 points).

The Business Conditions Index marginally decreased by -2 points to -3 in August. The multi-speed economy was evident once again, with conditions for manufacturing, retail, wholesale and construction remaining weak, while mining and the service sectors faired stronger.

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Business Confidence

ImprovingConfidence

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: National Australia Bank (NAB), last updated Aug-11

• The Business Confidence Index indicates expectations of business conditions for the upcoming quarter.

• The Index is based on a survey of approximately 900 small to large businesses in the non-farm sectors and is conducted by the National Australia Bank (NAB).


| P. 4 PRDnationwide

Macroeconomic Climate

RBA HINTS LONG TERM INFLATION TO REMAIN STEADYTheJune2011CPIfiguresrecordedanannualchangeof3.6percent,placingtherateofinflationjustoutsidetheRBAtargetrangeoftwotothreepercent.

Theunderlyinginflationfigure,asmeasuredbytheRBAremovesvolatileitemssuchasfruit and fuel, remains inside the target range and only softened marginally to 2.5 per cent from the March 2011 quarter of 2.6 per cent.

TheRBApredictsinflationwillbeconsistentwiththetargetrangeduring2012and2013asa result of the soft economic conditions, altering their bullish stance on economic growth. Several lending institutions have even priced in rate cuts by the RBA over the next 12 months.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global growth forecast to four per cent this year and for 2012 (lead by growth from China), equating to a 0.3 per cent decrease for this year and a 0.5 per cent fall on the next. Australia has been downgraded to 1.8 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent in 2012. Growth in the US is estimated to only be 1.5 per cent this year and 1.8 in 2012, while the forecast for the E.U. is 1.6 per cent this yearandjust1.1in2012.China’sgrowthisalsolikelytosoftenfrom9.5percenttonineper cent in 2012.

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Inflation

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Reserve Bank's Target Range

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: ABS Cat 6401, last updated Oct- 2011

• Inflation is measured as a change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), calculated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as the price of a weighted 'basket' of goods and services which account for a high proportion of expenditure by metropolitan households.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) aims to constrain inflation in a long-run target range of 2-3% through the setting of interest rates.

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PRDnationwide

Macroeconomic Climate cont.

BORROWERS HOLD BREATH AS RATES MAY DECREASEThe standard home loan interest rate has not changed since November 2010 through to September 2011, remaining at 7.8 per cent. According to the RBA, the cash rate has remainedsteadydespiteinflationincreasing,duetothesofteconomicconditionsoutsideof the resource sector, households maintaining their cautious spending behaviour and the uncertainty surrounding the global economic environment.

The NAB forecasts the cash rate to hold for a prolonged duration, only to increase in mid-2012 by 0.25 per cent. However, continuing global economic volatility and mounting domestic evidence that key economic indicators are weakening (falling business confidence,conditions,consumersentimentandthehighAustraliandollar)hasincreasedthe pressure on the RBA to react by lowering the cash rate.

A study by Deutsche Bank concluded that Australian banks were one of the best placed in 22 economies studied to deal with any shocks from the sovereign debt crisis. The key factorswerelowunemployment,exchangerateflexibilityandthecreditmixinAustralia.ThestudyalsoconcludedthatAustralianhousingarewellinsulatedfromanysignificantdownturn in prices, due to several economic factors, one of them being ample room for the RBA to reduce interest rates if necessary.

The RBA has found that higher loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) have become more popular as mortgagelendingcompetitionintensifies.After2009lendingcriteriatightenedwithfewerloans being written with a LVR above 90 per cent. However, due to recent lending competition this trend has changed. Contrary to this, a recent report by ratings agency Fitch stated that mortgage strain on borrowers had eased due to the prolonged period of steady interest rates.

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Housing Loan Interest Rate

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: RBA Bulletin F05, last updated Oct-11

• The housing loan interest rate is the average rate of interest being offered by housing lenders. It is higher than the RBA’s target cash rate due to lending costs and profit margins.

• Interest rates are set by the RBA, who acts independently of government and sets interest rates with the goal of maintaining inflation in a long-run target range of 2% and 3%. The RBA meets monthly to review the current interest rate and is only required to justify its decision if it chooses to alter the rate.



Foreign Exchange

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR SLIPS MOMENTARILYDuring the month of September 2011 the Australian Dollar Exchange Index decreased a 5.4 per cent to register an Index value of 72.4, whilst the annual change in the Australian Dollar depreciated 0.7 per cent. The Trade Weighted Exchange Rate Index graph demonstrates the recent softening of the Australian Dollar since the peak reached in July 2011.

Recent data as at October 2011 has shown that the Australian dollar has surpassed parity with the US dollar once again since falling away in September. Recent events unfolding in the European Union debt crisis has affected sentiment, with the news of French President Sarkozy meeting with German Chancellor Merkel to resolve the debt crisis providing optimisminthefinancialmarkets.

The NAB export Index has decreased sharply in August to -3 Index points. Exports fell the most in manufacturing and wholesale, while the only industry that experienced an increase was transport and utilities. The prolonged period of a high Australian dollar has hindered many exporters.

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Trade Weighted Exchange Rate Index

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: RBA Bulletin F11, last updated Oct-11

ImprovingAffordabilityof Imports

Sep-10 Sep-11 % ChangeEU Euro 0.71 0.72 1.3%JP Yen 80.58 74.88 -7.1%NZ Dollar 1.31 1.28 -2.8%UK Pound 0.61 0.63 2.8%US Dollar 0.97 0.98 1.2%

• The trade weighted exchange rate Index is compiled monthly by the Reserve Bank and ranks the Australian dollar against the currencies of our significant trading partners.

• Exchange rates directly affect the prices of our exports in foreign trade dollars.

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PRDnationwide

Fuel Prices

FUEL PRICES SOAR ONCE AGAINIn dollar value terms, the nation experienced a decrease of one cent to the average petrol price during the month ending August 2011. The average price Australians pay at the pump was at $1.42 per litre. During the year ending August 2011, petrol prices increased at an average rate of 11.8 per cent across the nation.

Adelaide is now the capital city where motorists pay the least at $1.37 per litre. The city experienced a quarterly decrease of 4.9 per cent during the quarter. In Darwin consumers continue to pay the most at $1.51 per litre.

Over the three month period ending August 2011, all capital cities (except Darwin) experienced an decrease in petrol prices with Adelaide decreasing the most at 4.9 per cent. This was followed by Sydney (3.2 per cent), while Melbourne and Perth both decreased by 2.8 per cent.

During the course of the year ending August 2011, Sydney petrol prices increased the most at 13.7 per cent, while Hobart increased the least at 8.1 per cent.

Recent data show that the falling Australian dollar has lead fuel prices to increase dramatically in October, with a national high occurring in Hobart at $1.56 per litre.

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Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: AAA/Fueltrac, last updated Oct-11

• Sourced from Fueltrac, this chart tracks the average retail price for unleaded petrol across a broad range of suppliers in metro areas.



Commodities Prices

COMMODITY PRICES STUMBLEDuring the month of September 2011, the Commodity Price Index increased by 1.9 to reach 115.4 points. When compared to the previous year, the Index is 20.9 per cent higher.

The Australian dollar has largely been viewed as a commodity currency. Recent decreases to gold and oil prices and predictions that iron ore prices will slide as demand in China falls have detracted the Dollars appeal.

After much debate the carbon price appears that it will be voted in by the government, with the Clean Energy Future legislation only a formality from being passed by the Senate. This is despite a recent survey of only 38 per cent of Australian businesses supporting this in initiative.

Commodity prices have fallen heavily in September, with copper and nickel down 20 per cent, while oil and gold fell 10 per cent. It appears that the scale of the 2008 global recession was underestimated with levels of high debt and unemployment remaining part of the global economy. The price of commodities may be sliding due to decreasing global demand with increasing levels of supply.

Contrary to this, the industrialisation and urbanisation of China along with the lagged development of India could ensure that demand for raw materials remains high for longer than the traditional commodity booms.

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RBA Commodity Price Index

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: RBA Bulletin G5, last updated Oct-11

• Primary commodities account for more than half of Australia’s export earning.

• The Reserve Bank’s Commodity Price Index provides an indicator of primary commodity price movements. The Index includes 17 commodities with separate weightings, the highest of which are coal, gold and iron ore.

• High commodity prices are one of the primary drivers behind Australia’s robust economy, influencing real estate prices particularly in Western Australia, Northern Territory, Northern Queensland and as of late South Australia. Coupled with the resource industry boom, employment and population growth follow, which spurs demand for housing and rental accommodation, particularly in neighbouring resource rich regions.

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PRDnationwide

Construction Market

CONSTRUCTION SPEND UP BUT HOUSING SUFFERSThe national gross spend on construction (other than houses) increased during the June 2011quarterbyonepercent.TheoverallspendfortheyearendingJune2011wasjustover $95 billion, up 5.8 per cent from the previous year. The gross spend in the June 2011 quarterwassignificantlyhigherthanpreviousquartersat$24billion.

In 2011 $86 billion worth of infrastructure projects made the priority list prepared byInfrastructure Australia (IA), the statutory body advising governments, investors and infrastructure owners on the nations infrastructure needs.

The Australian Industry Group and Housing Industry Association has released its latest data from the Construction Performance Index, with a decrease of 2.1 points to 30 in September. This result is the 16th consecutive month under 50 points, the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The construction of houses decreased 5.5 points to 24.1 and apartments fell 4.2 points to 21.

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Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: ABS Cat 1350, last updated Oct-11

•The construction industry is one of the driving areas in the economy, having a significant contribution to GDP and a multiplier effect on the activity in other industries. Indicators of price movement of construction outputs will be a valuable tool in economic analysis.

• Construction industry output price Indexes are being developed to measure changes over time in the price of new construction outputs, other than houses.



House Finance

FINANCE FROM HOME OWNERS INCREASEThegrossspendonhousingfinancewas$20.8billionduringthemonthofAugust2011.Compared to the previous year, the total spend has increased by 3.5 per cent, equating to $700 million.

Investorspendlookstohavesettledatjustabove$6billion,sincethestartof2011.ForthemonthofAugust2011,investorfinancialcommitmentincreasedby$100milliontorecord$6.3 billion.

During the month of August 2011, owner occupier spend increased by $100 million to equate to $14.5 billion. Just over 69 per cent of the property market is now owner occupied and it is expected to increase as rents across the nation continue to rise.

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Owner Occupied Investment

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: ABS Cat. No. 5609, last updated Oct -11

• Housing finance commitments track the volume of finance commitments made by significant lenders to individuals for the purchase of housing.

•This graph tracks the value of loans approved for both owner occupiers and investors.

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PRDnationwide

Labour Market

EMPLOYMENT SOFTENS MARGINALLYDuring the month of September 2011, unemployment increased to 5.2 per cent (which is on partothelongerfiveyearaverage).Whenlookingatthemovingannualaverage,theratehasbeensteadyat5.1percentsincethefirstquarterof2011.

For the month of September 2011, the nations lowest rate of unemployment occurred in the Northern Territory at 3.1 per cent, a rate that has been steady since July this year. Queensland continues to have the highest rate of unemployment at 5.6 per cent, followed by Tasmania at 5.4 per cent.

New South Wales unemployment rate also remained steady at 5.1 per cent during the month of September, while in Victoria unemployment is at five per cent. However,unemployment in the ACT has steadily increased since the start of 2011, reaching 3.7 per cent for the month of September.

Baby boomers, a large skilled section of the Australian workforce have started to ease their way into retirement, leaving an increased gap of skilled workers in many industries. A report released from KPMG details that 43 per cent of surveyed businesses expect to become more reliant on skilled international migrants.

The ABS has reported that in the past three years there has been a 10 per cent decrease in themanufacturingworkforce,witharound50,000 jobsdisappearingover thepastsixmonths alone. Approximately $6 billion worth of government grants will be made available to developers of resource and infrastructure projects in a bid to aid the strugglingmanufacturing sector.

Jobadvertshavecontinuedtoslideinfourofthepastfivemonths,aresultoftheweakeningbusinessconfidence

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Unemployment Rate Australia

Moving Annual Average Australia

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: ABS Cat 6202, last updated Oct-11

• Unemployment is calculated as the proportion of people in the labour force that were unemployed and actively seeking work during the survey period.

• The labour force is defined as the number of people aged between 16 and 55 who were either employed or actively looking for work during the survey period.

• This graph tracks the unemployment rate on a monthly and moving annual average basis over the last 30 years.



Stock Market

EQUITY MARKETS HIGHLY VOLATILEGenerally speaking, equity markets have remained unstable as a result of the escalating concern that the global economy is heading back into recession. The US S&P 500 fell 7.2 per cent in September, while the Dow Jones decreased by 6 per cent as well.

TheAustralianSecuritiesIndexdecreasedit’smonthlyaveragevalueduringthemonthofSeptembertoreach4,075points,downfromAugust’saverageof4,246points.

It is clear that the uncertainty in the global economy has affected Australian shares, with the early October period experiencing a near $100 billion loss over just a period of days,equating to its worst losses since 2008.

The increase of high-frequency trading (through computer algorithms) has caused a demand for a new stockmarket to be established. One that is free of high-frequency trading and naked short selling, which could have the effect of manipulating markets. Many perceive current sharemarkets integrity as being compromised, which has deterred would be investors.

• The S&P/ASX 200 is recognised as the primary investable benchmark in Australia. The Index covers approximately 78% of Australian equity market capitalisation. Index constituents are drawn from eligible companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. This Index is designed to address investment managers’ needs to benchmark against a portfolio characterised by sufficient size and liquidity.

• The S&P/ASX Australian Index is a real-time, market capitalisation weighted Index that include the largest and most liquid stocks in the Australian equity market listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX).

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DayPrepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: Standard & Poors, last updated Oct-11

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| P. 13


PRDnationwide

Home Affordability

INCREASE TO AFFORDABILITY PROVES TO BE BRIEFThe progress of home loan affordability made over the March 2011 quarter proved to be only temporary, with affordability decreasing in the June 2011 quarter to an Index score of 28.9 points.

Over the June quarter several states recorded an improvement to home loan affordability, with Victoria achieving the highest growth at 2.2 per cent to 28.4 points. Other states to improve marginally were the Northern Territory (up 1.6 per cent to 43.8 points) and Western Australia (up 0.8 per cent to 28.2 points). States that experienced a decrease in affordability were New South Wales (down 3.7 per cent to 25.9 points), Tasmania (-4.2 per cent to 33.9 points) and the ACT (-1.1 per cent to 53.3 points).

On average, Australian households now need approximately 34.6 per cent of the family income to service their home loan. New South Wales continued to be the least affordable state, with households requiring 38.7 per cent of the family income to service their home loan, equating to 4.1 per cent above the national average.

Queensland families require approximately 33 per cent of the average family income to service the average home loan, while Victoria requires 35.2 per cent. The ACT requires the least amount, with 18.8 per cent of the average income. According to the REIA, the proportion of family income needed to meet the average rental payment has decreased during the June 2011 quarter to 24.8 per cent.

Over theJune2011quarter, loanstofirsthomebuyers increasedbythe largestamountsincetheJune2009quarter,by13.4percent.Thefirsthomebuyerparticipationrateasatotalnumberofdwellingsfinancedincreasedto15.5percent,butstillremainsbelowthelong term trend of 20 per cent of the total market

• The Home Loan Affordability Index measures average loan repayments against median wages and tracks these values over time.

• Continued price growth in the property market without an accompanying rise in income saw a long period of decline in the home loan affordability Index across the nation.

• The Home Loan Affordability Index commenced its rapid descent during 2002. After a short leveling between 2004 and 2006, affordability levels have again continued to trend downwards.

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Mar

-81

Mar

-82

Mar

-83

Mar

-84

Mar

-85

Mar

-86

Mar

-87

Mar

-88

Mar

-89

Mar

-90

Mar

-91

Mar

-92

Mar

-93

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-94

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-95

Mar

-96

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-97

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-98

Mar

-99

Mar

-00

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

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-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Inde

x va

lue

Quarter

Home Loan Affordability Index

ImprovingAffordability

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: REIA / Deposit Power, last updated Aug-11



Dwelling Market

NEW DWELLINGS INCREASE IN QUARTER 2The total number of dwelling commencements increased during the June 2011 quarter by 2.2 per cent, equating to 37,159 new homes for the quarter. When compared to the previous year, commencements have decreased by 17.5 per cent.

On a state-by-state basis, Victoria continued to record the highest number of dwelling commencements during the June quarter, representing 40 per cent of all dwellings commenced nationally. New South Wales followed with 18 per cent and Queensland contributed with 16 per cent of commencements.

The least amount of dwellings commenced for a state during the June 2011 quarter was the Northern Territory (139), followed by Tasmania (679).

The Housing Industry Association has stated that taxes on new housing have hindered new housing supply. This has been supported by research undertaken by the Centre of International Economics, which found that housing is one of the most heavily taxed sectors of the economy in both aggregate and relative terms.

TheQueenslandStateGovernment’s$10,000boosttobuildnewpropertieshasassistedinincreasing building approvals 19.7 per cent in August.

• Dwelling commencements indicate the number of new dwellings that have commenced their construction phase.

• A moving yearly average is used to filter out seasonal fluctuations in the number of dwellings commenced.

• Nationally, the annual number of dwelling commencements have been on a downward trend since Sep-04 (earlier in NSW and VIC).

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30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

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95

Jun-

96

Jun-

97

Jun-

98

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99

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00

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ing

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al A

vg. o

f Com

men

cem

ents

.

Quarter

Dwelling Commencements

Dwelling Commencements Australia

Annual moving average

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: ABS Cat. No. 8750, last updated Oct-11

| P. 15


PRDnationwide

Dwelling Market - cont.

TIME IS RIGHT TO BUYOver the September 2011 quarter, the Time to Buy a Dwelling Index increased in four of the fivemeasuredstates,withSouthAustraliaexperiencingadecreaseof5.9percent.WesternAustralia followed by New South Wales lead the increases to the Index, with a change of 37.9 per cent and 18.3 per cent respectively.

Queensland now has the highest Index value at 146.3 points for the September quarter, followed by Western Australia (137.9 points) and Victoria (132.8 points).

According to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment, family financialconditionsimprovedfromthepreviousyearinWesternAustralia(4.3percent)butdecreased in New South Wales (23.2 per cent), Queensland (-12.8 per cent), Victoria (16.7 per cent), and South Australia (-11.6 per cent).

• The Time to Buy a Dwelling Index indicates short-run changes in consumer sentiment regarding whether it is a good time to buy a dwelling.

• It is a component of the Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Sentiment Index which is undertaken monthly.

40

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100

120

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160

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11

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ing

annu

al a

vera

ge o

f Tim

e to

Buy

a D

wel

ling

Inde

xMoving Annual Average

Time to Buy a Dwelling IndexNSW VIC QLD WA SA

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: Westpac/Melbourne Institute, last updated Oct-11



Home Prices

ROBUST SYDNEY MARKET IN 2011According to the RPData-Rismark International Home Value Index, all capital cities except for Sydney experienced a decline in value over the year ending August 2011. On average, property values have fallen by 3.2 per cent, with the largest declines being felt in Perth (-7.1 per cent) and Brisbane (-6.1 per cent). Sydney was the only market to register growth in home values, by 0.3 per cent.

The NAB Residential Property Index has also decreased to -14 points over the September 2011 quarter, down further from -5 points in the June 2011 quarter. According to the NAB, conditions are much weaker in Queensland (-40 points), Victoria (-35 points) and South Australia (-36 points). However, conditions improved in New South Wales (to 21 points) and Western Australia (to 11 points). Nationally, the NAB Index shows that the pace of decline has accelerated over the September quarter to -2.4 per cent, from one per cent in the June quarter. Over the next 12 months the NAB predicts a further decline of one per cent.

Inner-city demand for housing remains strong, with the sub-$500,000 market the tightest. Buyers are now concerned with tighter lending conditions, construction costs and jobsecurity as the biggest impediment to purchasing property, while fears of interest rates increases have eased.

The RBA has released a recent study examining the urban structure and housing prices. Oneof thekeyfindingspresentedseessupplydrivenfactorshavinga large influence indetermining housing costs, leading eventually to home affordability. This report appears to pointthefingeratinefficientpoliciesthatareinplaceregardingurbanplanning,landusageand infrastructure investment.

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-4.30%

-6.10%

-4.90%

-7.10%

-3.40%

-2.10%

-5.30%

-3.20%

-8.00% -7.00% -6.00% -5.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Darwin

Canberra

Hobart

National

Change in Dwelling Price Index

Cap

tial C

ity

National Home Value Index

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: RPData-Rismark International last updated Oct-11

• The chart to the above measures an annual period change in house prices of the capital cities.

| P. 17


PRDnationwide

Rental Market

RENTAL MARKET REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE QUARTERSince September 2010 to the most recent June 2011 quarter, the Australian average vacancy rate has remained steady at 2.2 per cent. Rental accommodation appears to be most in demand in in Sydney, Canberra, and Adelaide.

Most capital cities experienced a marginal increase to vacancy rates over the quarter, with only the Darwin market tightening by 2.6 per cent. According to the latest Market Facts report from the REIA, Perth now has the highest vacancy rate at 3.5 per cent, while Sydney has the lowest rate at 1.5 per cent.

Darwin maintains the highest median rental price for a standard three bedroom house at $540 per week, increasing by2.7 per cent over the quarter ending June 2011. Adelaide is still the most affordable city to rent in, with a median rental price of $320 per week.

Rental prices for a standard three bedroom house in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth have remained steady over the June 2011 quarter.

• An industry benchmark for vacancy rates is considered to be 3%. Vacancy rates lower than 3% indicate strong demand for rental accommodation, whilst rates higher than 3% reflect an oversupply of rental accommodation.

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SydneyMelbourneBrisbaneAdelaidePerthHobartDarwinCanberraAus Average

Qua

rterly

Vac

ancy

Rat

e

Capital City

Quarterly Vacancy RatesJun-10 Jun-11

Jun-11 Average 2.2%

Prepared by PRDnationwide. Source: REIALast Updated Oct 2011



Demographics

RATE OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION CONTINUES TO SLIDEThe Australian rate of population growth decreased slightly by 0.2 per cent to 1.23 per cent for the 12 month period ending March 2011. This equates to 467,478 new residents.

Western Australia continues to lead the way in terms of the growth rate, with an annual increase of 2 per cent, equating to 45,470 new residents. Victoria registered the highest number of new residents with 76,147 during the 12 month period ending March 2011. This isjustaboveNewSouthWaleswith66,639newresidentsandQueenslandwith62,811.

The Northern Territory has registered the slowest population growth at 0.28 per cent for the 12 month period ending March 2011. This represents an increase of only 645 new residents for the state. Tasmania was not far behind, recording only 0.61 per cent growth (3,076 new residents) during the twelve month period.

There has been a significant decrease in the number of immigrants enteringAustralia.During the September 2009 quarter, a total net 72,280 new residents called Australia home. Since then net immigrant numbers have declined by 20 per cent to equate to 57,834 new residents for the March 2011 quarter.

• Population change tracks the change in population across the states and territories of Australia. Population growth is seen as the key driver of demand for housing.

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Num

ber o

f Per

son(

s)

Period

Population Growth - Australia4 per. Mov. Avg. (Natural Increase - Australia)

4 per. Mov. Avg. (Net Overseas Migration - Australia)

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: ABS Cat 3101, last updated Oct- 2011

| P. 19


PRDnationwide

Demographics - cont.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA NOW STATE OF CHOICE FOR MIGRANTSQueensland received 1,578 new interstate migrants during the March 2011 quarter. Over thetwelvemonthperiodendingMarch2011,Queensland’saveragequarterlymigrationratewas 1,848 new interstate migrants.

New South Wales still records the highest outward migration of residents nationwide and until recently, this rate was in decline. However, over the past six months to March, this rate has increased again. The annual average rate of migrants leaving New South Wales has increased to 3,051 residents and has not been this high since December 2009. In the March 2011 quarter, outward net migration increased to 3,292 residents.

The number of net migrants entering Victoria continued to increase over the March 2011 quarter. Approximately 1,383 more migrants decided to call Victoria home, its highest level of migration since March 2002.

South Australia continued to lose residents, with 400 net residents departing during the quarter, while the ACT lost a net 16 interstate migrants.

Western Australia attracted a net 1,824 new residents from neighbouring states, surpassing Queenslandasthestateofchoiceformigrantsforthefirsttime.

• Net interstate migration tracks the net population change in each state attributable to interstate migration.

• Net interstate migration figures fluctuate with the seasons, so a moving yearly average is shown to filter out these changes.

-15,000

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-5,000

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ual A

vg. o

f Num

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f Per

sons

.

Quarter

Net Interstate Migration

NSW VIC QLD

Prepared by Colliers International and PRDnationwide ResearchSource: ABS Cat 3401, last updated Oct-11



Retail Trade

QUIET HOLIDAY SEASON TIPPEDOverthe12monthperiodendingAugust2011,Australia’sannualchangeinretailexpenditureincreased 1.93 per cent from the previous year, but only shifted 0.6 per cent during the month.

The largest growth in expenditure occurred in food retailing, registering an annual growth of 5.3 per cent. This was followed by other retailing which registered an annual growth of 5.1 per cent.

Department stores experienced a softening of 3.6 per cent from the previous year, while clothing and soft good retailing also softened by six per cent.

Online purchasers are forecasted to double in the next four years, with 56 per cent of online consumers purchasing online at least once a month. A forecasted total of $33 billion is expected for online retail sales in Australia by 2015.

There is continual reports which state that this could be one of the toughest Christmas periodsonrecord.MajorretailerTargethaveannouncedthattherewillbeasupplier-widereductionoffivepercentinpay.Target’searningshavefalleninthepastfinancialyearby27 per cent, while revenue has decreased by one per cent.

• Retail spending figures are estimated by the ABS based on the Retail Business Survey conducted monthly amongst 4,350 retail and selected service businesses.

• The annual change in retail spending indicates how active consumers are in the marketplace and the degree to which consumers are willing to spend.

• The seasonally adjusted figures are used to smooth out seasonal factors associated with this data.

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-11

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-11

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erce

ntag

e ch

ange

Month

Annual change in retail expenditure

Prepared by PRDnationwide ResearchSource: ABS Cat No: 8501.0 SeasonallyadjustedfigureslastupdatedOct-11

| P. 21


PRDnationwide

International Policy

GREECEANDIT’SEFFECTONTHEEUFourteen out of 27 countries in the European Union (EU) have public debt exceeding 60 per centof theirGDPat theendof2010,accordingtoEurostat(statisticalofficeof theEU).Over 2010, the ratio of government debt to GDP across all 27 member states increased from 74.4 per cent to 80 per cent. Greece has the largest amount of government debt to GDP, with a ratio of 142.8 per cent, followed by Italy (119 per cent), Belgium (96.8 per cent), Ireland (96.2 per cent), Portugal (93 per cent), Germany (83.2 per cent), France (81.7 per cent), Hungary (80.2 per cent) and the UK (80 per cent). When the Euro commenced in 1999, member states were suppose to ensure that their debt did not exceed 60% of their GDP.

TheGreekeconomyhasstruggledsincethenationjoinedtheEuroin2001,despitelastyear’s bailout of $150 billion. Internal resistance to strict economic measures and acontractingeconomyhavemadeitdifficultforGreecetopaybackitsinternationallenders,while its earnings have lagged. It is now faced with having to negotiate a second package of assistance.

If Greece defaults on its loans, French and German banks that are exposed might struggle, resulting in credit becoming sparse in the wider banking sector. With tighter credit around, investors would perceive other countries to be at risk, namely Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy.

EconomistsaresplitwhetherGreecefallingoutoftheEurowouldbebeneficialornot,inthewider scheme. On one hand it could be disastrous for the Eurozone economies, while on theotherhand,Greecewouldthenbefreeofthefixedexchangerate.Thiswouldallowittobecome more competitive as an exporter and as a tourist destination. However, Greece will still be in debt and handouts from former Eurozone partners would be harder to come by. Not to mention, Greece would face higher prices for imported goods as well.

If (and maybe when) Greece defaults, the banks exposed will incur the initial hit, but the overall consequences will be similar to when Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 and its subsequent financial crisis. Greece’s fall would be the first domino of other Eurozonecountries that could fall, leading to Spain, who many see as too large to fail.

European economic growth was at 0.2 per cent between April to June 2011, placing large fears that the E.U. is on the verge of another recession. As a result of the weakening economic data that has emerged, the European Central Bank has now altered its monetary policy plans of raising interest rates from 1.5 per cent, to possibly lowering rates.



International Policy cont.

POSSIBLE QE3 IN STORE FOR THE US?Economic turmoil in the US is building, with the initial stimulus spending ending and new policy which implements spending cuts set to start earlier, at a time when the economy is still in need of easier access to credit. Meanwhile, taxes have been left largely untouched, resulting in the US maintaining their stance as one of the lowest taxed countries in the rich world.

As trouble in the US economy increases, the Federal Reserve is considering an additional third phase of quantitative easing (QE3), where the central bank would purchase more securities,floodingthestaggeringeconomywithmorecapital.AfterhavingrecentlymetinthemiddleofOctober2011,twoofthetenvotingofficialsadvocatedforQE3,whilethreeopposed it, citing fears of super-inflation. QE2 occurred when the Federal Reservepurchased government bonds from November 2010 to June 2011, and is credited for bringingpricesbackupwhentheeconomywasatriskofdeflation.

The US has already voted to raise the debt ceiling, which has allowed them to continue borrowing without having a self imposed sovereign default occur. This lead to Standard & Poor’sdowngradeoftheUScreditratingfromAAAtoAAforthefirsttimeinthenationshistory.UnemploymentintheUSremainsveryhighatjustabove9.2percent,whileinterestrates are being held close to zero until at least mid-2013.

The Federal Reserve has stated that Congress and the White House should be more proactive in taking necessary steps to aid the persistently weak recovery. The Chairman of the Reserve Ben Bernanke has stated that labour markets, housing, taxation, trade and regulation are key areas that should be target by the Government.

Tensions are rising in the US, with demonstrations occurring on Wall Street against the ‘corporategreed’.Theprotestlabelled‘OccupyWallStreet’revolvesaroundchallengingtheinfluenceofcorporationsongovernmentandthegrowingincomegapsinsociety.

| P. 23


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Transcript of PRD Jens Gaunt Quarterly Economic & Property Report | Q4 2011