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Transcript of Pramod Aggarwal Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi, India Enhancing the Adaptive...
Pramod AggarwalIndian Agricultural Research
InstituteNew Delhi, India
Enhancing the Adaptive Capacity of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change: Opportunities and
Constraints
Agriculture led development in India
Food production increased from 65 in 1960s to 230 million tons in 2008
Land saved - more than 50 million ha Calorie intake increased from 1900 to
2500 Kcal/capita/day Poverty decreased in rural areas from
51% (in 1977) to 27% (in 2004) Human development index improved
from 0.41 (in 1972) to 0.619 (in 2007-08)
And yet problems persist
1/4th of the world’s hungry 40% of the world’s malnourished
children and women Lagging in meeting MDGs Given a choice, 40% farmers would
like to leave farming (NSSO, 2005)
Climate change may further compound the situation
Source: IPCC2007; Adapted from Krishna kumar et al. 2009
2020 2050 2080
Assessing vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change: Controlled environment facilities at Delhi
Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Wheat
Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Maize
Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Sorghum
Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Soybean
These impact assessments have uncertainties
Possible errors in climate models, crop models and data used
No link with change in future irrigation water availability
No consideration of weather extremes Future technological developments, (e.g.
in crop improvement), and socio-economic scenarios not considered
Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture
Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of most C3 crops by 10-20%.
A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of many crops by 0-7%. Much higher losses at higher temperatures.
Productivity of most crops to decrease only marginally/remain unaffected by 2020 but decrease by 10-40% by 2100.
Possibly some improvement in yields of chickpea, winter maize, sorghum and millets.
Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in north-western India due to reduced frost damage.
Climate change may also provide new opportunities
Apple yields in Himachal have decreased due to inadequate chilling
Apple cultivation shifted upwards
Farmers changed to vegetables earning more income
New varieties with lesser chilling requirement being introduced
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1
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3
4
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6
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8
1980
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1982
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1984
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1986
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1988
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1990
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1992
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1994
-95
1996
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1998
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2000
-200
1
Years
Yie
ld (
To
ns
)
Adapting agriculture to climate change:Setting goals of adaptation
•Indian national agricultural policy aims a:•Growth rate of 4% per annum•Growth based on efficiency and conservation of resources•Growth that is inclusive and equitable
•Goals of adaptation•Producing more (diversified) food to meet demand•Stabilizing production in climate stressed seasons•Raising input use efficiency to address the increasing competition for land, water, capital, and labour settlements•Greater focus on poor
Adapting to climate change by raising crop production: Large yield gaps in crops provide an opportunity
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3
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1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Year
Gra
in y
ield
, t/
ha
Current yield
Biophysical potential yield
Biological potential yield
Yield gap2: Limited by climate, soil, and irrigation
Yield gap1: Limited by crop management, pests, and risk management approaches
Demand 2020
Agronomic options can meet goals of adaptation in short-term
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Impact + Sowingdate
+ Variety + Irrigationefficiency
+ Fertilizeruse
efficiency
+ Additionalinputs
Adaptation options
Net
vu
lner
abili
ty, %
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60S
oil
tes
t
Pla
nt
test
Lea
f co
lou
r
cha
rt
Nit
ri.
inh
ibit
or
Fer
t.
pla
cem
ent
Zer
o t
illa
ge
Inte
gra
ted
N
use
Pre
cisi
on
farm
ing
Co
st o
f re
du
cin
g N
lo
ss (
Rs.
kg-1
N)
Adaptation/mitigation options may not always be economically viable: Example of N use efficiency in rice
Pathak, H. (2010) Nutr. Cycling Agro-ecosystem.
Cost of one kg N in urea
National Food Security Mission Aims to bridge yield gaps
Launched in 2007 in 311 districts to raise production by 20 million tons: Better seeds Assured inputs-
nutrients, irrigation, machinery
Farmers training Demos
Climate change may limit the potential adaptation window of current technologies
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1 2 3 4 5
Yie
ld g
ap
, t/h
a
Climatic risks are common in IndiaClimatic risks are common in India
70% of land under cultivation prone to drought
12% of land (40 million hectares) to floods
8% of land (8,000 km coastline) to cyclones
A major disaster occurs every 2-3 years
30 million people affected annually
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI: BMTPC, Ministry of Urban Development, GOISource: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI: BMTPC, Ministry of Urban Development, GOI
Managing current and future short-term climatic risks is crucial
Short periods of drought can cause large yield losses: Sorghum in Rajasthan
0
20
40
60
80
100
1-Jul 16-Jul 31-Jul 15-Aug 30-Aug 14-Sep 29-Sep 14-Oct
Period of drought
Yie
ld l
os
s,
%
Providing value-added weather services Weak weather infrastructure; data protocols, storage, access and
dissemination
Promoting insurance for climatic risk management scientific and economically validated schemes; weather derivatives;
awareness
Facilitating community partnership in food, forage and seed banks
Technical know-how; capital costs; reduced acceptance if successive years are risk free
Compensating farmers for environmental services Technical know-how; costs of production go up
Sharing experiences across similar regions Validation in new scenarios of development and climate risks
Adaptation to increasing climatic risks: Assisting farmers to cope with current climatic risks
Policy responses have consistently evolved with successive drought events
1877
Drought Events
Major Policy Interventions
Famine Codes
1965
Green Revolution and FCI
Scarcity relief
1972
Employment Generation Programmes
Drought relief
1979
ContingencyCropPlan
Droughtmanagement
1987
WatershedApproach
Watermanagement
2002
Improved weather forecasts and their applications
Knowledge management
Each round represent death of one million people
Each round represent around fifty million people affected Source: ADPC/MOA
2009
Early Warning Response Programs
NATIONAL CROP
WEATHER WATCH GROUP
RAINFALL MONITORING
RESERVOIR
CROP MONITORING
CENTRAL
STATE
DISTRICT
SUB-DISTRICT
VILLAGE
RESERVOIR WATER BUDGETING
FOOD / NUTRITION SECURITY
EMPLOYMENT GENERATION
DRINKING WATER
CATTLE CARE
Source: MOA
Drought early warning and response system has been conceptualized
Despite such policy responses, climatic risks still cause considerable loss
Key reasons Widespread
poverty Limited
human capital Poor
governance including limited stakeholder analysis, and dissemination of knowledge
Green 1-10, Yellow 11-50, Red > 50
Poverty (2005) Population at $2/day or less
Human capital literacy rate
Conclusions
1. Large yield gaps in all crops is an opportunity for meeting food demand in future even in the face of increasing climatic risks.
2. In short-term, several options relating to technology transfer and adoption can help improve adaptive capacity. Later, better adapted genotypes will be needed.
3. Climate change may provide new opportunities for growing crops in regions/periods not considered suitable earlier. Need to manage them.
4. Problems related to poverty, governance, institutions, and human capital limit agriculture growth today and can also limit adaptation to increasing climatic risks.
Some observations on the proposed Mega Program on climate change
Clear identification of stakeholders: Farmers Policy Planners Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon markets)
Stakeholders interest in adaptive capacity: Understanding vulnerabilities of the region Overall enhancement of adaptive capacity (not agriculture
alone) Short-term action plans Integrated, region specific solutions; and not by themes.
New partnerships are required: Other science departments (earth
sciences, e.g.) Development departments (e.g. irrigation
and disaster management agencies) Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon
marketing) Cooperatives (e.g. for food, seed and feed
banks)
Some observations on the proposed Mega Program on climate change